Dynasty ADP Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)
Now that the season is over, it’s time to look at our dynasty rosters and see what we can do to make them better. One way to do that is to look at the current Average Draft Position information to see if we can find some actionable info. For this analysis, I’m using Dynasty League Football (DLF)’s ADP from December which is comprised of real mock drafts done on MyFantasyLeague.com. Yes, mock drafts have flaws, but it’s good enough for what we want to do here, so let’s go!
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Mahomes was QB1 but Allen is gaining ground
It’s not really a surprise to see Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) at the top of the QB ADP. It’s been that way for a while now. The surprise is that Josh Allen (QB – BUF) is gaining ground on him. In October, Allen was 22 total spots behind Mahomes. In November he was 13 behind and in December he was only 12 behind. January ADP isn’t finalized yet but I think it’s safe to say that Allen will be even closer, if not ahead, of Mahomes in dynasty ADP.
Hurts was QB7, ahead of Burrow at QB8
Contrary to many fantasy analysts opinions in September, Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) was ranked as QB7 in dynasty per DLF ADP in December. This is after carrying his team to the playoffs and dominating the regular season. I expect his ADP to correct itself slightly in January though, with Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) likely leapfrogging him due to his amazing December. Still, Hurts being a QB1 in dynasty is impressive, but it’s not something we expected a few months ago.
Watson was QB12
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU) is still considered a QB1 in dynasty as well. His QB12 ranking is likely a result of the season coming to an end and the eternal optimism of him leaving the Texans and playing elsewhere. If he does in fact leave Houston and go somewhere else this ranking makes total sense. If, however, he doesn’t, well then this could be a similar outcome to Andrew Luck. It’s not that often where a top 12 QB just never plays again, but we might be looking at that with Watson here too. Very risky for QB12 overall.
Mixon was RB4, ahead of McCaffrey at RB5
Seeing Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) ahead of Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) just feels wrong to me. Mixon is great but McCaffrey is a beast. This is almost certainly due to McCaffrey’s injury history which makes sense to me, but Mixon has had his own injuries to worry about. There are others in the top 12 that I’d probably have over both, but that group from RB3 through RB12 is tough to rank for me.
Henry was RB15, just behind Zeke at RB14
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Both Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) and Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) being ranked outside the top 12 running backs was due to happen eventually, I’m just surprised it’s happening this soon. Both of these two are on offenses that tend to funnel the ball to the running backs. Both are dominant players on the field. But both have had troublesome years in fantasy. That likely makes them riskier than the other options ranked ahead of them to most mock drafters. Both are great values to me though.
James Robinson was RB21, just ahead of Akers at RB22
When these drafts took place at the start of December, James Robinson (RB – JAX) was dominating on the field. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles later that month, meaning his ADP should plummet in January ADP. On the flipside, Cam Akers (RB – LAR) was RB22 in December but he’s been activated from IR and may even play in the postseason. This should boost his ADP significantly in January and beyond. Both are good talents but will be big movers in the coming months.
Jefferson, Chase, Lamb are top three
At the top of the WR ADP we see three predictable players: Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN), Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN), and CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL). It’s weird not seeing Tyreek Hill (WR – KC) and AJ Brown (WR – TEN) in this group but I get it. The real question is whether or not Chase leapfrogs Jefferson in January due to his excellent finish to the season. I think he does. I also think Lamb’s poor finish lowers him outside the top 5 as well, but we will have to wait and see.
Kupp is WR7, with Adams at WR8
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) singlehandedly won people their fantasy titles, so it’s not shocking to see him in the top 10 in dynasty. I think he rises even further in DLF ADP in January. Adams falling to WR8 is a little shocking though. That’s probably because of the uncertainty at QB. If Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) leaves Adams behind in Green Bay, Adams will almost certainly be worth this ADP. If Rodgers stays, Adams is a steal at WR8.
Waddle is WR15 with Higgins at WR16
The second rookie in DLF’s December ADP is Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) at WR15. I get it too, he played really well this year. If Chase hadn’t been drafted everyone would be looking at Waddle as a surefire success, both in the NFL and in fantasy. Chase’s teammate, Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) is right behind Waddle at WR16. Both of these players can jump into the top 12 though, possibly as soon as January, based on their strong season finishes.
Pitts is TE1, 11 overall, 22 spots ahead of Kelce at TE2
Rookie tight end, Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL), is the official TE1 in dynasty and has been since September. What’s shocking to me in the December numbers is just how far ahead of TE2 Travis Kelce (TE – KC) he is being drafted. Pitts is going in the first round and Kelce is going almost two full rounds later. This is a huge gap at tight end. Kelce’s reign at the top is clearly over, and I don’t see him retaking it if this is the gap he needs to close. Pitts’ managers are entirely fine with this, I might add.
Freiermuth is TE7, ahead of Goedert at TE8
Another interesting nugget is that Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) is TE7 as a rookie. Pitts being TE1 makes sense, but very few people would have predicted that Freiermuth would be this high this fast. He’s going ahead of Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI) who has been a target of dynasty players for years. Both of these players are targets for me depending on their price because I think they’re both going even higher this offseason.
Schultz is TE12
Last but not least, my final player to look at in the December DLF ADP is Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL). I’m surprised that he’s TE12 but at the same time I get it. Tight ends are brutal in dynasty after the top 10 or so. This means that all of the tight ends from TE11 through TE20 or so could be considered a TE1 on any given week. Schultz at TE12 feels a little high, but honestly who knows how things will shake out in Dallas, right?
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @AndrewHallFF.