Before the 2022 NFL Draft kicked off in Las Vegas, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre-Draft 2022) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.
Because there’s no denying that the recent influx of young talent that has entered the NFL has altered the way fantasy managers need to approach rookies. Guys are hitting the ground running. Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN), Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN), Tee Higgins (WR – CIN), Jonathan Taylor (WR – IND), Antonio Gibson (WR – WAS), Kyle Pitts (WR – ATL), Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA), Najee Harris (RB – PIT), Javonte Williams (RB – DEN), Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ), Amon Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) and Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) all produced as rookies the past two seasons.
But there’s still some ambiguity with every prospect entering the league that should be considered when generating their fantasy value. And how the NFL thinks about that player based on their draft capital — which we finally have with the draft concluded — should be factored in.
Leveraging draft capital provided and using the historical rookie track record data to devise a value strategy with the new application to the 2022 rookie class will prepare you for dynasty rookie drafts and season-long leagues, in addition to exposing early ADP value on Underdog Fantasy.
Running Backs
The data suggest a strong correlation between draft capital and running back production in fantasy football. This correlation isn’t too surprising because we know that draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity versus talent/skill, and the running back position in fantasy football is heavily-dependent on volume.
NFL teams are wising up to drafting a running back at the back-end of Round 1 or in the middle of Day 2 just to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.
First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 237 touches per season — a number that ranked 15th at the position last season. The benchmark at 15 is slightly inflated from last season due to the extra game, so I’d estimate the average is closer to top-12 based on the previous 16-game season sample size.
Najee Harris — 381 touches in 2021, No. 1 in the NFL — is the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.
NFL teams selected no running back in the first round of this year’s draft, but three running backs — Iowa State’s Breece Hall (RB – NYJ), Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA), and Georgia’s James Cook (RB – BUF) — were taken in Round 2.
Hall has the proven three-down skill set and college production profile to carry a Harris-Esque workload in the NFL, so he’s probably slightly undervalued at an RB21 best ball ADP with the New York Jets. Gang Green selected him 36th overall and reportedly was willing to trade up into Round 1 to draft him.
The average running back finish for a first-round running back is RB18, so that’s perhaps the precise redrafting ranking range for the highly-touted prospect.
Keep in mind that just because Hall didn’t receive Round 1 capital doesn’t mean he won’t be treated as such. NFL rosters are keen on the lack of value gained from drafting a running back so high in real life.
Simply put: Running backs drafted early on Day 2 are the first-round running backs from five years ago.
And that’s why you should be heavily drafting Hall because his best ball ADP doesn’t fully capture his draft capital. Walker (RB31) and Cook (RB39) seem priced closer to their floor than their ceiling as Round 2 running backs finish as RB3s more than half the time (55%).
But what’s more intriguing a topic to cover is the plethora of running backs selected in Rounds 3 and 4.
Most analysts — myself included — and draft pundits cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is set up in that fashion, but the facts advocate we should view them separately.
The volume and fantasy finish margin from Round 2 to Round 3 running backs is more significant (42%) than Round 3 to Round 4 running backs (16%). Trey Sermon (RB – SF) is the example from last season of a Round 3 running back that failed to fire, and Tags warned us about this in last year’s pre-draft version of this article.
“Of the 27 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last nine years, just five of them have finished as a top-24 running back in their rookie season, while 18 of them finished outside of the top-36 running backs.”
Rachaad White (RB – TB), Tyrion Davis-Price (RB – SF), and Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) were the three RBs selected in the third round of this year’s draft, with Davis-Price going the latest based on early May ADP.
Meanwhile, Isaiah Spiller (RB – LAC) is being drafted before all the Day 2 running backs, despite being the third running back drafted in the 4th round.
I don’t necessarily view this as malpractice, though. None of these Round 3-4 guys should have top-36 expectations, and the ADP accurately reflects that. And although Spiller went in Round 4 versus Round 3, my research found there’s not much of a difference between the two in first-year production.
So take advantage of Round 4 RBs with late ADPs like Hassan Haskins (RB – TEN), who seems to have a pretty clear path to RB2 duties behind Derrick Henry (RB – TEN).
Round 4 running backs look much more like Round 3 running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their Round 5-plus counterparts.
In the past three seasons, 34 running backs have been selected in Rounds 5-7. Elijah Mitchell and Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) were the best of the bunch from last season.
Still, the bottom line remains that there’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in Rounds 5-7. Players like Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA), Nyheim Hines (RB – IND), Tony Pollard (RB – DAL), Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC) and DeeJay Dallas (RB – SEA) in years past enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as rookies. The 2021 crop of fourth-rounders was also encouraging with guys like Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE), Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) and Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR).
However, it’s still a massive uphill battle to wait until even early Day 3 to hear a running back’s name called.
From 2013 to 2021, just two running backs finished as top-24 running backs (Jordan Howard (RB – FA) in 2016 and Zac Stacy in 2013).
A few guys came seriously close in 2021 — Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29), and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) — but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status. We should not value any running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 projection.
ADP heavily favors the Rounds 3-4 crops of RBs over 5-7, except in the case of BYU running back Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL). And I agree with the market.
Because I full-heartedly believe Atlanta would have taken him in Round 4 if they had a pick available to them. Therefore, I don’t think it’s fair to view the RBs that went in Round 4 in such higher regard.
I also liked his prospect profile coming out. Allgeier ranks first in rushing yards after contact (1,847), second in rushing touchdowns (36) and third in PFF rushing grade (94.8) among FBS players with at least 150 carries over the past two seasons.
But other than Allgeier, I wouldn’t have any high hopes in Year 1 for any of these guys drafted after Round 5. A lot of this stems from these later round backs having to earn touches and work their way up a depth chart. After all, the draft capital constitutes that teams don’t have to play them.
Because they can only gain opportunity by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend leaning towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs.
If they are on a team that boasts a weak or ambiguous running back depth chart, then fantasy managers should add that to the equation. But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon. I’ve got four that fit the criteria I am looking for.
Patriots running back Kevin Harris (RB – NE) posted the highest single-season dominator rating in the class in 2020 (45%). His explosive testing numbers were also off-the-charts excellent at the combine. 89th percentile vertical jump and 91st percentile broad jump at 221 pounds are utterly astounding.
Ravens running back Tyler Badie (RB – BAL) tied Kenneth Walker III in rushes of 10-plus yards (46) to lead the 2022 Draft Class. He’s explosive and a slick receiver out of the backfield. Badie had 124 catches during his four-year tenure in college – capped off by 52 receptions in 2021. That was the highest mark among all 2022 draft-eligible backs.
Chiefs seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) blazed a 4.37 40-yard dash (95th percentile) at the combine. No other KC running back boasts that high-end speed.
Cardinals running back Keaontay Ingram (RB – ARI) offers decent size and athleticism but benefits most from the Arizona depth chart. James Conner (RB – ARI) is the entrenched bellcow, but his injury history needs no explanation. Eno Benjamin (RB – ARI) looks slated for the No. 2 role but profiles more as a pass-catcher. I’m actually somewhat intrigued by former Steelers running back Jaylen Samuels (RB – ARI), who reunites with former Steelers running back coach James Saxon.
Wide Receivers
If a receiver hasn’t broken out by “Year 3” nowadays, the panic button goes off.
However, you can see a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital compared to running backs. 25% of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is slightly more probable than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (19%).
Therefore – under no circumstances should you draft a third-round running back over WR with Round 1 draft capital. Rookie draft ADP reflects this, but it’s close between Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) at 2.01 and Isaiah Spiller at 2.04. This is not the case in early best ball drafts, where Spiller, White and Pierce are all going before Dotson.
There's a 1st-rd WR that's being drafted after two Day 3 running backs in best ball rn
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 6, 2022
The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are certainly drafted in the first two rounds. There have been 28 rookie wide receivers who’ve finished inside the top-36 (WR3 territory) over the last nine years, and GMs drafted 22 of them inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (79%).
Round 2 or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 55% clip.
Based on the hit rates that I’ve previously touched on, I’d project at least 1 or 2 of the six first-round rookie WRs in this class to finish at top-24 options. None of them are priced as such, which means they are all values, with Dotson being the most obvious with a WR68 price tag.
Of the seven Round 2 WRs selected, I’d project one to finish as a top-24 option. Skyy Moore (WR – KC) seems like the best bet based on the opportunity he should see in a high-powered Chiefs option. I’d also estimate that another WR finishes inside the top-36 with 2nd-round picks, offering a 26% fantasy WR3 hit rate.
Considering all 13 of the Round 2 or higher rookie WRs, there’s a strong chance that more than half will finish as WR3s in their first season. Round 2 or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 55% clip.
Thus, you could blindly draft all six first-round rookie WRs plus Skyy Moore or another Round 2 WR with a reasonable probability they all finish inside the top-36. Considering zero of them have an ADP inside the top-36 based on the current best ball ADP, you need to draft them aggressively until the market adjusts.
Just don’t be overly bullish on the Round 3 guys like Velus Jones (WR – CHI) (WR111), Jalen Tolbert (WR – DAL) (WR82), David Bell (WR – CLE) (WR66) or Danny Gray (WR – SF) (WR118).
Because similar to the running back position – there’s another drastic fall from Round 2 to Round 3. Just 3-of-35 wide receivers have finished top-36 since 2013, including zero hits in 2021.
Tolbert and Bell figure to have their moments playing in high-powered environments, but their overall consistency will probably be lackluster. They each have a wide range of outcomes based on the playing statuses of Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) and Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE).
After that, you can pretty much ignore the majority of WRs taken from Rounds 4-plus.
There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round over the last seven years (2013-2020). Not one of them has finished as a top-50 wide receiver in their rookie year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, as he not only finished top-50 but 21st overall.
The primary takeaway is to go aggressively after wide receivers with Round 1 or 2 draft capital, but be extremely wary of those that go Round 3 or later. ASB’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.
It’s easy to tell yourself a story that guys like Romeo Doubs (WR – GB) (WR96), Calvin Austin (WR – PIT) (WR120), Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) (WR101) or Kyle Philips (WR – TEN) (WRN/A) can have a stretch of fantasy production. But realistically, you are just praying for a spike week. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys outside the 18th round of a best-ball format. And in the case of Doubs/Shakir, it would only happen if I rostered Josh Allen (QB – BUF) or Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) as my quarterback.
Tight Ends
You can almost always look the other way in redraft leagues when it comes to rookie tight ends – Kyle Pitts from last season being the one exception to the general rule of thumb. He’s used more like a wide receiver in the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is why he was able to find success as the TE7 overall in his first season. The dude is also just a unicorn, and no standard rookie tight ends should be compared to him.
Pitts joins Evan Engram (TE – JAC) as the only rookie tight end who’s finished as a top-12 option over the last eight years.
Although there was another rookie tight end – not-named Pitts – in last year’s class that came close to finishing top-12: Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT). The Pittsburgh Steelers tight end finished 2021 as the TE13 thanks to seven receiving touchdowns.
The Penn State product is also the first rookie tight end selected in the second round to finish as a top-18 option since 2013.
A rookie tight end almost always needs to be drafted in Round 1 for hopes of fantasy relevance in Year 1 with a respectable 64.3 target average – TE20 last season.
Round 2 is much tougher to get behind for any tight end historically, so this year’s class will be tough to trust for instant production of a TE1. The best – and most probable – case scenario for second-rounder Trey McBride (TE – ARI) is that he hits the fantasy TE2 range.
With a TE28 ADP, he’s not a horrible best-ball option. Easy to envision him having fantasy success with just one injury to Zach Ertz (TE – ARI).
But with a sub-10% chance that any of the third-round tight ends — Jelani Woods (TE – IND), Greg Dulcich (TE – TEN) or Jeremy Ruckert (TE – NYJ) — enter the top-24 territory, they cannot be drafted. I’m floored that these guys even have best ball ADPs.
I’d rather take a shot on Daniel Bellinger (TE – NYG) or Cade Otton (TE – TB), and I can at least envision them rising to the depth chart on their respective rosters. To be honest, you’re better off just fading the rookie TEs altogether.
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Andrew Erickson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter at @AndrewErickson_.
