What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
One major advantage of having the third overall pick is that you’re guaranteed a shot at two top 18-20 players.
There are no notable disadvantages other than not getting the first or second choice. You have a slightly earlier pick in the second round as a reward. Picking third gives you a wider range of players guaranteed to be available to you and could even be considered ideal positioning.
Similar to the second overall pick, your pick will likely depend on which player is selected before you.
Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.03 in 2022?
As mentioned in the 1.01 and 1.02 spots, the recommended strategy is to draft the best available player (relative to league settings). To reiterate, a high-end RB1 (or QB if Superflex) is widely considered the best choice in the first round.
Ideally, your selection will be an RB who is a safe bet for abundant volume/opportunity and production as a rusher and a receiver.
Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?
We already discussed how the optimal picks here would be Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, Austin Ekeler or Derrick Henry.
However, one name we have yet to touch upon is Najee Harris. In 2021 Harris racked up a league-high 381 touches (74 receptions), delivering an incredibly solid 1,600+ total yards and 10 TDs as a rookie. In addition, Harris managed 16+ PPR points in 12 of 16 games in 2021 while registering a 75% (or higher) snap-share in 14 of 17 games. He has proven his RB1 potential and is well-deserving of consideration in the first round.
As always, it comes down to who you feel most comfortable with.
Ja’Marr Chase is a name that has been creeping up on many draft boards, and rightfully so. The Offensive Rookie of the Year’s monstrous fantasy potential was displayed when he scored 55.6 PPR points (11-266-3) in week 17. Chase set not only the single-season rookie record for receiving yards (1,455) but also the single-game rookie record. Twice. Who could be blamed for selecting him in the first round?
The point is: pick whoever YOU want the most. Any player ranked 1-12 is unlikely to make it back to you.
So if you feel so inclined, “smoke ’em while you got ’em.”
Remember, whatever position you select first will dictate your team’s needs for the rest of the draft.
Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?
D’Andre Swift. Swift has been seen going in the first round in many drafts. He is ranked as high as 13th overall according to FantasyPros ECR.
It’s hard to say he doesn’t have RB1 potential (RB2 in total PPR points weeks 1-7 in 2021, career average of 4.1 rec. per game). However, his lack of a feature role is troubling. He gobbles up receptions, but he only has three career games with more than 14 carries. As a RB, that is very concerning. In a half-PPR league, he loses a significant chunk of his value. In a standard league, he loses most of it.
Not to mention, although it’s early in his career, his availability is already showing cause for concern. He has missed seven games in his first two seasons, and at least three games in each.
It’s well within the realm of possibility for Swift to blow expectations out of the water in 2022 and cement himself as a first-rounder in 2023. However, for the reasons listed above he seems more appropriately valued in the second round.
What is the plan of attack for rounds 2-3 based on the possible first-round scenarios?
The strategy is very similar to the 1.02 approach, in the sense that it’s a good idea to analyze the team needs of the person who drafted before you in the first round. The only difference is that this becomes slightly more difficult as you’ll have to analyze the team needs of the 1.01 and 1.02.
For example: if both managers selected RBs with their first pick, and Stefon Diggs (ADP: WR5) is available to you in the second round, you can infer if you don’t grab him now, he won’t make it back to you in the third.
Vice versa, if the 1.01 manager took Cooper Kupp, and for some reason, the 1.02 manager selected Justin Jefferson, it’s fair to assume they’re both going to be targeting their RB1. In which case, you go for the highest-ranked RB here and aim to land your WR1 in the third round.
This strategy isn’t bulletproof. Drafting can be unpredictable. As most of us know, the reasoning of some managers defies all logic. It can prove challenging to keep up with the team needs of two teams as well as your own. What you would do isn’t necessarily what they’re going to do.
If nothing else, this strategy encourages a logical method of making an educated guess about which players you can pass on and reasonably land with your next pick.
Suggestions for RBs who could be available in the late-second/early-third round include Nick Chubb (ECR: RB8, 20 or more touches in seven of 14 games in 2021, career AVG of 5.3 YPC and 9.7 TDs per season, AVG 105.2 YPG since 2019) and D’Andre Swift (ADP: RB9, career AVG of 4.1 receptions per game, and 5.2 yards per touch).
Suggestions for WRs who could be available in the late-second/early-third round include Stefon Diggs (ECR: WR5, averaging 115-1380-9 per season since joining the Bills) and AJ Brown (ADP: WR10, 20+ PPR points in 14 of his last 30 starts, career AVG of 16.2 yards per reception).
Who are some targets in rounds 4-7?
Other than the names we discussed for the 1.01 and 1.02 spots, some great picks at their current value include:
RBs Damien Harris (ECR: RB26, 58th overall, RB14 in 2021, double-digit PPR points in 11 of 15 games) and Kareem Hunt (ECR: RB29, 69th overall, double-digit PPR points in 73% of career games).
As for WRs, Brandin Cooks (ECR: WR20, 50th overall, six-time 1,000-yard WR, averaged 14.5 PPR points, 9.5 targets per game, and finished with a career-high 90 receptions in 2021) and Courtland Sutton (ECR: WR21, 52nd overall, led Denver in red zone targets in 2021, new QB Russell Wilson has had a WR finish top-five in red zone targets in each of the past three seasons… shoutout Andrew Erickson) are names to consider.
Drafting a QB before round seven isn’t always necessary, but if you want the luxury of a dual-threat cheat code like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts, you’ll likely have no choice but to strike in this range.
However, players like Russell Wilson (QB10) and Trey Lance (QB14) could offer the same benefits and are being drafted significantly later.
After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?
If you have followed the guidelines up to this point, you should be loaded up on flex players (RB/WRs) with the occasional QB, or TE sprinkled in.
Ideally, RB and WR will be positions of strength at this point, and it will be time to start addressing QB and TE.
If you have already selected a QB or TE (or both), you must continue building depth at WR and RB while you can still secure relatively low-risk/high-upside options.
Do not worry about D/ST, kicker or backup QB/TE until the final five picks of the draft. On a standard roster, you can only start one of each, and depth at these positions is significantly less important. Having a top player at these positions is nice, but they can all be streamed weekly depending on matchups and recent trends. Therefore, they should not be prioritized over flex depth.
When all is said and done, a perfectly balanced roster should look like this:
- 1-2 QBs
- 5-6 RBs
- 5-6 WRs
- 1-2 TEs
- 1 D/ST
- 1K
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