Fantasy Football Predictions: Buccaneers vs. Saints (Week 2)

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. If you’re looking for the complete primer, here’s a link to it:

• The Primer: Week 2 Edition

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

• TB -3, O/U 44.5
• Buccaneers at Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Buccaneers News – Injury Reports
• Saints News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: In three of Tom Brady‘s last four games as a Buccaneer, he’s failed to throw for more than 240 yards against the Saints defense. Over that span, he has a 6:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio with weekly finishes as the QB4, QB10, QB29, and QB30. The Saints were fourth in pass defense DVOA last year, so their 19th ranking in net yards per attempt after Week 1 should be taken with a grain of salt. They only mustered a 10.8% pressure rate in Week 1, but Dennis Allen only fired up blitzes on 10.8% of their plays which isn’t close to last year (22.0% blitz rate). Last season the Big Easy defensive front was 13th in pressure rate. Expect Allen to dial up the heat against a quarterback who, yes, had the 13th highest blitzed yards per attempt but also the eighth largest passer rating difference (-5.0) when blitzed last year (minimum 200 dropbacks). Brady is a low-end QB1.

Jameis Winston: Winston was under duress in Week 1. After one game, the Saints’ offensive line is tenth in adjusted sack rate while also allowing Winston to see the tenth-highest pressure rate and 12th-most hurries. Winston performed well under seizure with the fifth highest pressured PFF grade while sitting at ninth in yards per attempt (minimum ten dropbacks). Winston was up and down against pressure last year, ranking 20th in passer rating, but he had the fifth-most passing touchdowns against pressure (minimum 20 pressured dropbacks). Winston is a highly volatile QB2 target in Week 2 against a defense that is currently first in pass defense DVOA after holding the Cowboys to the third-lowest yards per play mark and lowest net yards per pass attempt clip.

Update: Jameis Winston is questionable (back). He’s practiced in a limited fashion all week, so I currently expect him to play.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette: Every down Lenny is alive and well. In Week 1, he played 76% of the snaps with 23 touches and 137 total yards. He handled two of the three running back red zone opportunities. He ran a route on 75.8% of Brady’s dropbacks. I won’t let a one-week sample dismantle my thoughts about a run defense, but we also do have to acknowledge that Cordarrelle Patterson ran for 120 yards (5.4 yards per carry) against New Orleans in Week 1. That leaves the Saints 26th and 25th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards after one game. We did see the Saints’ run defense look mortal after Week 10 last year when they were 15th in explosive run rate allowed, so it’s not inconceivable. Fournette is a volume play with 17-20 touch expectations and heavy involvement in the passing game. The stat line might not be sexy this week, but he’s still an RB1.

Update: Leonard Fournette has been listed as questionable (hamstring). He has practiced in a limited fashion all week, so right now, I expect him to suit up.

Week 1

Alvin Kamara: Kamara remains the lead back in this offense. Kamara’s routes per dropback are the most concerning, with only a 42.5% clip in Week 1, but this could be explained by the team stating he’s dealing with a rib issue. New Orleans is legendary for keeping injury and suspension news in-house, so I won’t take it lightly that the injury news hit the news timeline. With that being said, in most formats and leagues, you’re still starting Kamara because partially the state of the running back position in fantasy. While the Saints’ offensive line struggled to protect Winston in Week 1, they did run block decently. After Week 1, they are sixth in adjusted line yards (16th second-level, 17th open field). Kamara also looked spry on his early down touches with 3.56 yards after contact per attempt. This looks like a good spot to feed Kamara through the air against a team that saw the second-most running back targets last year, allowing the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards. With Tampa Bay ranking 29th in explosive run rate last year, Kamara could surprise on early downs.

Update: Alvin Kamara (ribs) and Mark Ingram (ankle) have also been listed as questionable. Kamara logged a limited practice on Tuesday but was a DNP the rest of the week. I’d consider him more iffy to play. Ingram has squeezed in limited practices all week. If you’re in a pinch with Kamara, pick up Ingram now and drop your kicker. Ingram will be a mid-RB2 if Kamara sits.

Also, Dwayne Washington is questionable (hamstring). In the exaggerated case of a Saints’ backfield armageddon and Kamara, Ingram, and Washington are all ruled out Tony Jones Jr. or Latavius Murray (newly signed to the practice squad) would be “the guy”.

Mark Ingram: Ingram isn’t startable in any format unless we get word Kamara will be limited by the news of the rib issue. Ingram likely won’t see above 35% of the snaps and more than a handful of touches in a breather role. He’s a good stash but not worthy of plugging in your lineups.

Update: If Kamara is out, consider Ingram a mid-RB2. Last year in three games as a starter he played 72% of snaps or higher twice. He averaged 18 touches (6.7 targets) and 95 total yards. He was the RB24, RB8, and RB15.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Last week, Evans gobbled up a 25.9% target share and he’s poised to get close to that number again in Week 2. The biggest deterrent to Evans having a smash day is Marshon Lattimore. Last year Lattimore followed Evans on 65% of his routes as he finished with four targets, two receptions, 48 receiving yards and a score. In his last four games against the Saints, Evans has only once surpassed 50 yards receiving (one receiving touchdown). Brady will lean on him with Chris Godwin on the shelf. Over the last two years Evans has played six games without Godwin averaging 5.6 receptions, 71.3 receiving yards, and 1.1 receiving touchdowns.

Update: Mike Evans has been listed as questionable (calf). He was limited on Wednesday before missing Thursday’s practice. He returned for a limited session on Friday.

Julio Jones: Jones ran a route on 75.8% of Brady’s dropbacks garnering an 18.5% target share while running about 63% of his routes on the outside. If Lattimore does follow Evans for the entire game then Jones could be in for a big game lining up against Bradley Roby on the perimeter and Justin Evans in the slot. Roby looked cooked last year allowing a 74.4% catch rate and 103.9 passer rating. Evans covered the slot for New Orleans in Week 1. Last year in coverage he allowed an 85.0% catch rate and 121.0 passer rating.

Update: Julio Jones has been listed as questionable (knee). We’ll have to monitor all of these players up to lock. Jones had back-to-back DNPs before returning to a limited session Friday.

Russell Gage: Gage dealing with a hamstring injury ran a route on 62.0% of Brady’s dropbacks last week. He only saw a 7.8% target share while running 61.1% of his routes from the slot. This would put Evans on him for most of the game. This week with no Godwin and another week post hamstring issue (assuming positive practice reports), Gage’s usage could uptick massively. Don’t forget this is the same player that ranked 12th in route win rate overall and against man coverage last year. Gage finished as the WR20 and WR4 last year with Atlanta in his two games against New Orleans.

Update: Russell Gage has been listed as questionable (hamstring). He was a DNP on Wednesday before getting in back-to-back limited practices. Breshad Perriman is also questionable (knee). The only players not questionable are Scotty Miller and Jaelon Darden. They are waiver names to monitor if the unthinkable happens and all of these guys miss. It’s doubtful, but it’s worth mentioning. Miller and Darden, in that nightmare scenario, would be dart throw WR4/5 types.

Michael Thomas: Despite the hamstring issue coming into the game, Michael Thomas gutted out an 82.5% route per dropback rate. He looked like his former self despite a few miscommunications with Winston. He garnered a 23.5% target share while leading the wideouts in red zone targets (two). He ran from the outside on 82% of his routes. This means a heaping dose of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean for Thomas this week. Davis and Dean picked right up where they left off in 2021. In Week 1, they combined to allow a 33% catch rate while both corners logged passer ratings below 51.0.

Jarvis Landry: Landry was the unsung hero in Week 1. Landry wasn’t being discussed positively last week unless you had your eyes peeled on the Primer. He led the team with a 26.4% target share and 99 air yards while operating as the starting slot receiver (82.4% slot). Landry’s efficiency metrics last year showed he was far from washed. In the opening game of the season, he proved that to still be true with 3.56 yards per route run. He’ll line up against Antoine Winfield this week, who has taken over slot coverage for Tampa Bay. Winfield allowed a 62.5% catch rate in Week 1 (eight targets) but held his opposing receivers to a 43.2 passer rating when targeted.

Chris Olave: Olave was a full-time player in Week 1, but he only saw a 9.4% target share (three targets) against two top corners. The growing pains are likely to continue into Week 2 against Davis and Dean. Olave saw one of his targets deep last week. There will be weeks to plug in the talented rookie, but this isn’t one of them.

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate: If we want to get frisky and lump Week 1 of the 2022 season into the mix here, the Saints have ranked top-eight in DVOA against tight ends in each of the last three years. Brate checks the route box (79.3% per dropback in Week 1), but sadly the matchup and talent boxes remain barren. Don’t look at Brate if you’re seeking a streamer.

Juwan Johnson: If we’re going down the streamer rabbit hole in deep (and I do mean deep) leagues, then Juwan Johnson could make some sense. The former wide receiver turned hyper-athletic tight end saw a 14.7% target share in Week 1 while running, recording an eye-opening 80% route per dropback rate. Johnson’s aDOT was a healthy 12.4 as he lined up in the slot on 67% of his snaps. The Buccaneers begin this season 23rd in DVOA against tight ends after one week. Last year they were 19th allowing the sixth-most receptions and 13th-most receiving touchdowns (tied). It’s always nice to see when my colleague Andrew Erickson and I agree. He’s in on Johnson this week.

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*