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The Primer: Week 2 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Derek Brown | @dbro_ffb | Featured Writer
Sep 17, 2022
Fantasy Football Week 2 Start/Sit Advice

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“Well, that was a wild one.”

That statement resonated in my head after Week 1 came to a close. We saw some offenses that we were trying to figure out all offseason fly (KC), and some fail miserably (GB). Some players we loved in draft season crushed (Saquon Barkley), while others seemed squashed under expectations (Mike Williams).

Before we get to Week 2 of the Primer, I want everyone to take a deep breath and realize that ONE WEEK OF THE NFL SEASON is not how all 18 weeks will play out. Yes, we will look back and realize we were wrong about some players and situations, while others took time to play out the way we figured they would. Knee-jerk reactions after a one-game sample are real and can be a coffin nail for your fantasy teams if you spite-drop a player or release a player because you “knew they weren’t good” but selected them anyway because they were a value during the draft.

Check out all of our Week 2 fantasy football content >>

After ONLY one game of the 2022 NFL season, realize that we still know very little about how this season will play out in its entirety. Yes, we have a four-quarter sample of information to synthesize, but those 60 minutes of professional football aren’t biblical scripture prognosticating the rest of the season.

If this is your first time tuning back into the Primer for the fantasy season, please peruse my intro from Week 1 for my abbreviated life story in fantasy football. It’s a blessing to write this novel of stats weekly for everyone, and not one that I take lightly.

Thank you for every kind word. Every DM. Every reply to last week’s first installment. It means the world to me. The Aaron Donald-sized weight of anxiety I felt in my bones before last week’s edition went live has been lifted. Now, let’s discuss Week 2 in all its beautifully messy glory.

Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer >>

LAC vs. KC | NYJ vs. CLE | TB vs. NO | CAR vs. NYG | NE vs. PIT | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. BAL | WAS vs. DET | SEA vs. SF | ATL vs. LAR | HOU vs. DEN | ARI vs. LV | CIN vs. DAL | CHI vs. GB | TEN vs. BUF | MIN vs. PHI |

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

Injuries

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco: Even without Greedy Williams last week, the Browns looked like a defense to avoid, especially with mediocre quarterbacks. Last year Cleveland held opposing passers to the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate and fourth-lowest yards per attempt. Baker Mayfield could only muster 3.9 net yards per pass attempt in Week 1, which was the second-lowest in the NFL. The Browns conjured up a 28.1% pressure rate last week while only blitzing on 15.6% of their defensive snaps. This isn’t great for Flacco, who was tied for second in Week 1 for quarterback hits. Avoid Flacco this week, even as a QB2 option, if possible.

Jacoby Brissett: Even in the deepest of formats, I’m not starting Jacoby Brissett. This new look Jets’ defense held Lamar Jackson to the fifth-lowest net yards per pass attempt last week. Baltimore recorded the ninth-highest percentage of drives ending in a turnover in Week 1. Brissett was arguably a disaster in Week 1. Out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, he was 28th in PFF passing grade and 26th in adjusted completion rate. He was the QB28 in fantasy with zero big-time throws on his resume. This game will not be reliant on quarterback play. Whichever team plays better defense and runs the ball effectively likely pulls out the W.

Running Backs

Player Snap % Carries Targets Routes Red zone opportunities
Micheal Carter 60% 10 8 26 2
Breece Hall 45% 6 8 26 2

Michael Carter: Carter was discussed as the “heartbeat” of the team before Week 1. Apparently, the Jets meant to say that their offense beats with two hearts. Carter took the lead from a snap perspective and with a small volume edge, but overall this backfield feels very Denver Broncos-esque. Carter was his usual efficient self in Week 1, ranking 12th in PFF’s elusive rating and 15th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum ten carries). He was also 11th in yards per route run (minimum four targets). The matchup is brutal this week for Carter and Breece Hall. While Cleveland did allow the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt last year, they were eighth in DVOA against receiving backs, 14th in adjusted line yards, and ninth in second-level yards. They gave up the ninth-lowest explosive run rate in the NFL last season. The Browns held Christian McCaffrey to 3.3 yards per carry and six yards per reception last week, so it looks like last year’s defensive data is still relevant this year. The one silver lining is if the Jets can get near paydirt, Carter and Hall could punch in some short totes. Cleveland was 29th in red zone rushing defense in 2021. Carter is an RB3 like Hall, but his snap edge gives him the slight push here.

Breece Hall: Hall didn’t own the backfield like many had hoped walking into this season, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t valuable in fantasy. While Carter was RB14 in fantasy (PPR) last week, Hall also squeaked in at RB33. Hall was effective with his touches ranking eighth in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in yards per route run (minimum six carries, four targets). As the 1B in the Jets’ committee backfield that’s staring down a bad matchup, he’s a good bet for 10-12 touches weekly as a low-end RB3.

Week 1

Player Snap % Carries Targets Routes Red zone opportunities
Nick Chubb 52% 22 1 10 2
Kareem Hunt 56% 11 4 22 5

Update: Browns OT Jack Conklin (knee) has been listed as questionable. He was a game-time decision last week before not playing. It’s a small bump down for the running game, but not a massive one. You’re still treating Chubb and Hunt as you were previously.

Nick Chubb: New year. Same old story. Chubb crushed last week with 22 carries and 141 rushing yards only to lose passing down and red zone work to Kareem Hunt. This left Chubb as the RB19 for the week despite not getting into the endzone. That’s the best way to view Chubb as a weekly mid-RB2 with the upside to be top 10. He should enjoy another week of 15-20 carries with long touchdown scoring upside. Last year the Jets were fourth in rushing yards, ninth in yards per attempt, and first in rushing touchdowns allowed. They were also 25th in explosive run rate. One week into the season, holding the gaggle of Kenyan Drake, Mike Davis, and Justice Hill to 3.0 yards per carry doesn’t sway how I view their defense.

Kareem Hunt: Hunt finished last week as the RB4 in PPR. Unlike Chubb, Hunt’s versatile role allows him to be game script-proof. While this game projects for the Browns’ to lead, Hunt is still a strong play. His red zone role is also fantastic, so his touchdown prospects are high weekly, even if he doesn’t get there through the air or with volume. With a revamped secondary to handle, Brissett could just avoid the corners and check down to Hunt all day. The Jets were 25th in DVOA against pass-catching backs last year, allowing the sixth-most receptions and second-most receiving yards. The biggest worry for Hunt is that New York was also eighth in red zone rushing defense.

Wide Receivers

Elijah Moore: Moore was the only wide receiver that eclipsed 80% of routes per dropback in Week 1 for New York. That said, he and Corey Davis are the only wide receivers that can be started from this receiver depth chart. If you’re not getting the full-time route role, then we depend on high target per route run rates which is a slippery slope to base your fantasy hopes on in any week. Moore didn’t pop off against the Ravens with an 11.8% target share (0.89 yards per route run) and only one red zone target. He’ll see Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson on about 67% of his routes. Ward allowed a 62% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating last year. Emerson defended four targets in his first NFL action allowing receivers to secure 75% of them with a 92.7 passer rating.

Corey Davis: Davis ran a route on 67.7% of Joe Flacco‘s dropbacks last week. Davis led this group with a 15.2% target share and 1.83 yards per route run. He’ll also see Ward and Emerson on nearly 83% of his routes in Week 2. Davis saw one red zone target in Week 1.

Garrett Wilson: Wilson split routes with Braxton Berrios as the Jets’ third option. He only ran a route on 56.4% of dropbacks which won’t cut it. He did manage to garner three red zone looks in Week 1, but with only a one-week sample, that easily could be situational and not signal. Wilson drew a 13.5% target share with 33 air yards.

Amari Cooper: Cooper walks away from Week 1 with a 20.0% target share after running the second-most routes behind only Donovan Peoples-Jones. Cooper saw the team’s only deep target but wasn’t looked at in the red zone. His 0.50 yards per route run is snooze inspiring. Cooper is a volume wide receiver at this juncture of his career, but sadly he wasn’t the receiver earning the most volume in Week 1. That moniker goes to Peoples-Jones, but more on that in a second. Cooper will match up with D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner on nearly 85% of his routes this week. At this stage of his career, it’s fair to question whether he can win against those corners. Reed carried over his stellar play from last year, stonewalling receivers on the six targets he saw in Week 1. Last year he gave up a 51.5% catch rate and 66.0 passer rating. Gardner only allowed one of three targets to be secured with a 42.4 passer rating in coverage.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones led the team in air yards and target share in Week 1, amassing a 36.7% target share. Peoples-Jones posted 1.71 yards per route run which isn’t a blow-you-out-of-your-seat type of number, but it is quite solid. He drew the only red zone target last week. Peoples-Jones, who operated as a field stretcher last year, saw his aDOT dip to 8.5 in Week 1. Against Reed and Gardner (projected for about 70% of his routes), he’s nothing more than a desperation flex, but target volume could lead him to a decent day in PPR formats where he was the WR36 in Week 1.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Despite drawing only one target in the season opener, I’m telling you to trust David Njoku. Njoku’s underlying metrics were still sound as he ran a route on 76.4% of Brissett’s dropbacks. He also led the team in slot routes last week (36.8% slot), which means 6’4″ uber-athletic Njoku will be matched up with Michael Carter (5’11”) in the slot this week. Carter allowed a 74.3% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating last year. The Jets allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and sixth-most receptions to tight ends last year.

Tyler Conklin: Speaking of big slot receivers at the tight end position. This is also the role Tyler Conklin operated in for Week 1. Conklin ran a route on 80.6% of Flacco’s dropbacks with only an 8.4% target share and one red zone target. The Browns were 28th in DVOA against tight ends last year, with the sixth-most receiving touchdowns allowed (tied). Even with only four grabs and 16 receiving yards last week, Conklin was the TE10 in fantasy. He has a good shot for another score this week. You could do a lot worse as far as streamer options go in Week 2.

Check out my DFS advice for this and all games >>


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

Injuries

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: In three of Tom Brady‘s last four games as a Buccaneer, he’s failed to throw for more than 240 yards against the Saints defense. Over that span, he has a 6:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio with weekly finishes as the QB4, QB10, QB29, and QB30. The Saints were fourth in pass defense DVOA last year, so their 19th ranking in net yards per attempt after Week 1 should be taken with a grain of salt. They only mustered a 10.8% pressure rate in Week 1, but Dennis Allen only fired up blitzes on 10.8% of their plays which isn’t close to last year (22.0% blitz rate). Last season the Big Easy defensive front was 13th in pressure rate. Expect Allen to dial up the heat against a quarterback who, yes, had the 13th highest blitzed yards per attempt but also the eighth largest passer rating difference (-5.0) when blitzed last year (minimum 200 dropbacks). Brady is a low-end QB1.

Jameis Winston: Winston was under duress in Week 1. After one game, the Saints’ offensive line is tenth in adjusted sack rate while also allowing Winston to see the tenth-highest pressure rate and 12th-most hurries. Winston performed well under seizure with the fifth highest pressured PFF grade while sitting at ninth in yards per attempt (minimum ten dropbacks). Winston was up and down against pressure last year, ranking 20th in passer rating, but he had the fifth-most passing touchdowns against pressure (minimum 20 pressured dropbacks). Winston is a highly volatile QB2 target in Week 2 against a defense that is currently first in pass defense DVOA after holding the Cowboys to the third-lowest yards per play mark and lowest net yards per pass attempt clip.

Update: Jameis Winston is questionable (back). He’s practiced in a limited fashion all week, so I currently expect him to play.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette: Every down Lenny is alive and well. In Week 1, he played 76% of the snaps with 23 touches and 137 total yards. He handled two of the three running back red zone opportunities. He ran a route on 75.8% of Brady’s dropbacks. I won’t let a one-week sample dismantle my thoughts about a run defense, but we also do have to acknowledge that Cordarrelle Patterson ran for 120 yards (5.4 yards per carry) against New Orleans in Week 1. That leaves the Saints 26th and 25th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards after one game. We did see the Saints’ run defense look mortal after Week 10 last year when they were 15th in explosive run rate allowed, so it’s not inconceivable. Fournette is a volume play with 17-20 touch expectations and heavy involvement in the passing game. The stat line might not be sexy this week, but he’s still an RB1.

Update: Leonard Fournette has been listed as questionable (hamstring). He has practiced in a limited fashion all week, so right now, I expect him to suit up.

Week 1

Player Snap % Carries Targets Routes Red zone opportunities
Alvin Kamara 62% 9 4 17 0
Mark Ingram 33% 4 1 10 0

Alvin Kamara: Kamara remains the lead back in this offense. Kamara’s routes per dropback are the most concerning, with only a 42.5% clip in Week 1, but this could be explained by the team stating he’s dealing with a rib issue. New Orleans is legendary for keeping injury and suspension news in-house, so I won’t take it lightly that the injury news hit the news timeline. With that being said, in most formats and leagues, you’re still starting Kamara because partially the state of the running back position in fantasy. While the Saints’ offensive line struggled to protect Winston in Week 1, they did run block decently. After Week 1, they are sixth in adjusted line yards (16th second-level, 17th open field). Kamara also looked spry on his early down touches with 3.56 yards after contact per attempt. This looks like a good spot to feed Kamara through the air against a team that saw the second-most running back targets last year, allowing the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards. With Tampa Bay ranking 29th in explosive run rate last year, Kamara could surprise on early downs.

Update: Alvin Kamara (ribs) and Mark Ingram (ankle) have also been listed as questionable. Kamara logged a limited practice on Tuesday but was a DNP the rest of the week. I’d consider him more iffy to play. Ingram has squeezed in limited practices all week. If you’re in a pinch with Kamara, pick up Ingram now and drop your kicker. Ingram will be a mid-RB2 if Kamara sits.

Also, Dwayne Washington is questionable (hamstring). In the exaggerated case of a Saints’ backfield armageddon and Kamara, Ingram, and Washington are all ruled out Tony Jones Jr. or Latavius Murray (newly signed to the practice squad) would be “the guy”.

Mark Ingram: Ingram isn’t startable in any format unless we get word Kamara will be limited by the news of the rib issue. Ingram likely won’t see above 35% of the snaps and more than a handful of touches in a breather role. He’s a good stash but not worthy of plugging in your lineups.

Update: If Kamara is out, consider Ingram a mid-RB2. Last year in three games as a starter he played 72% of snaps or higher twice. He averaged 18 touches (6.7 targets) and 95 total yards. He was the RB24, RB8, and RB15.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Last week, Evans gobbled up a 25.9% target share and he’s poised to get close to that number again in Week 2. The biggest deterrent to Evans having a smash day is Marshon Lattimore. Last year Lattimore followed Evans on 65% of his routes as he finished with four targets, two receptions, 48 receiving yards and a score. In his last four games against the Saints, Evans has only once surpassed 50 yards receiving (one receiving touchdown). Brady will lean on him with Chris Godwin on the shelf. Over the last two years Evans has played six games without Godwin averaging 5.6 receptions, 71.3 receiving yards, and 1.1 receiving touchdowns.

Update: Mike Evans has been listed as questionable (calf). He was limited on Wednesday before missing Thursday’s practice. He returned for a limited session on Friday.

Julio Jones: Jones ran a route on 75.8% of Brady’s dropbacks garnering an 18.5% target share while running about 63% of his routes on the outside. If Lattimore does follow Evans for the entire game then Jones could be in for a big game lining up against Bradley Roby on the perimeter and Justin Evans in the slot. Roby looked cooked last year allowing a 74.4% catch rate and 103.9 passer rating. Evans covered the slot for New Orleans in Week 1. Last year in coverage he allowed an 85.0% catch rate and 121.0 passer rating.

Update: Julio Jones has been listed as questionable (knee). We’ll have to monitor all of these players up to lock. Jones had back-to-back DNPs before returning to a limited session Friday.

Russell Gage: Gage dealing with a hamstring injury ran a route on 62.0% of Brady’s dropbacks last week. He only saw a 7.8% target share while running 61.1% of his routes from the slot. This would put Evans on him for most of the game. This week with no Godwin and another week post hamstring issue (assuming positive practice reports), Gage’s usage could uptick massively. Don’t forget this is the same player that ranked 12th in route win rate overall and against man coverage last year. Gage finished as the WR20 and WR4 last year with Atlanta in his two games against New Orleans.

Update: Russell Gage has been listed as questionable (hamstring). He was a DNP on Wednesday before getting in back-to-back limited practices. Breshad Perriman is also questionable (knee). The only players not questionable are Scotty Miller and Jaelon Darden. They are waiver names to monitor if the unthinkable happens and all of these guys miss. It’s doubtful, but it’s worth mentioning. Miller and Darden, in that nightmare scenario, would be dart throw WR4/5 types.

Michael Thomas: Despite the hamstring issue coming into the game, Michael Thomas gutted out an 82.5% route per dropback rate. He looked like his former self despite a few miscommunications with Winston. He garnered a 23.5% target share while leading the wideouts in red zone targets (two). He ran from the outside on 82% of his routes. This means a heaping dose of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean for Thomas this week. Davis and Dean picked right up where they left off in 2021. In Week 1, they combined to allow a 33% catch rate while both corners logged passer ratings below 51.0.

Jarvis Landry: Landry was the unsung hero in Week 1. Landry wasn’t being discussed positively last week unless you had your eyes peeled on the Primer. He led the team with a 26.4% target share and 99 air yards while operating as the starting slot receiver (82.4% slot). Landry’s efficiency metrics last year showed he was far from washed. In the opening game of the season, he proved that to still be true with 3.56 yards per route run. He’ll line up against Antoine Winfield this week, who has taken over slot coverage for Tampa Bay. Winfield allowed a 62.5% catch rate in Week 1 (eight targets) but held his opposing receivers to a 43.2 passer rating when targeted.

Chris Olave: Olave was a full-time player in Week 1, but he only saw a 9.4% target share (three targets) against two top corners. The growing pains are likely to continue into Week 2 against Davis and Dean. Olave saw one of his targets deep last week. There will be weeks to plug in the talented rookie, but this isn’t one of them.

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate: If we want to get frisky and lump Week 1 of the 2022 season into the mix here, the Saints have ranked top-eight in DVOA against tight ends in each of the last three years. Brate checks the route box (79.3% per dropback in Week 1), but sadly the matchup and talent boxes remain barren. Don’t look at Brate if you’re seeking a streamer.

Juwan Johnson: If we’re going down the streamer rabbit hole in deep (and I do mean deep) leagues, then Juwan Johnson could make some sense. The former wide receiver turned hyper-athletic tight end saw a 14.7% target share in Week 1 while running, recording an eye-opening 80% route per dropback rate. Johnson’s aDOT was a healthy 12.4 as he lined up in the slot on 67% of his snaps. The Buccaneers begin this season 23rd in DVOA against tight ends after one week. Last year they were 19th allowing the sixth-most receptions and 13th-most receiving touchdowns (tied). It’s always nice to see when my colleague Andrew Erickson and I agree. He’s in on Johnson this week.

Check out my DFS advice for this and all games >>

Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants

Injuries

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield should prepare himself for a long day in Week 2. Mayfield finished last week as the QB13 in fantasy, mainly due to a rushing touchdown and other quarterbacks face planting. Mayfield is likely the one falling face first this week. The Giants were fifth in net yards per pass attempt allowed last week, but if their pass rush gets home, it could be lights out for Mayfield. With Don Martindale now at the controls for the Giants’ defense, we knew the blitz rate was going to climb. It was just a question of how high. Well, we got that question answered in Week 1 as the Giants were second in blitz rate (48.6%), generating pressure at the ninth-highest rate. This could crush Mayfield, who had the third-lowest completion rate and eighth-lowest yards per attempt against the blitz last year (minimum 200 dropbacks). With Carolina allowing him to face the 14th-highest pressure rate last week, Mayfield will struggle in Week 2.

Daniel Jones: Jones faces a Carolina Panthers pass defense that has shown talent over the last two years. Last season they allowed the 12th-lowest yards per attempt and ranked seventh in pressure rate. With a fully healthy Jaycee Horn this year, they stormed out the gate, ranking 13th in pass defense DVOA with the second-lowest net yards per attempt allowed in Week 1. With Brian Daboll attempting to hide his passing attack’s shortcomings with a run-balanced offense in Week 1 (57% pass, 17th) and a solid rushing matchup inbound, don’t expect Jones to post anything above game manager numbers in Week 2.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is back, baby! Oh, it is beautiful. Oh, so beautiful. Barkley played 83% of the snaps last week, rolling up 24 touches with 194 (WOW!) total yards. He ran a route on 75% of dropbacks with a stunning 33.3% target share. Barkley faces a Panthers’ run defense that was gashed for 187 yards on the ground last week by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Carolina ranked 27th in explosive run rate allowed last year. This week they get to face Barkley, who reeled off a whooping 6.83 yards after contact per attempt (first) while recording PFF’s seventh-highest elusive rating (minimum ten carries). Barkley could break this week’s slate with a mind-blowing encore.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 2, Saquon Barkley is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Beettle, Play the Field

Christian McCaffrey: In Week 1, the Giants swarmed Derrick Henry holding him to 82 rushing yards (3.9 yards per carry). They are primed to do the same to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2. McCaffrey looked like a player that was shaking the rust off. He played 81% of the snaps but only saw a 14.2% target share despite running a route on 72.7% of Mayfield’s dropbacks. The Giants are currently ninth and 13th in second-level and open field yards. This is a big departure from ranking 24th in explosive run rate last year. The biggest issue for McCaffrey is his patchwork offensive line that has ranked outside the top 18 in every offensive line yard metric I care about over the last two years. This means that McCaffrey will have to do some damage through the air against a team that was sixth in DVOA against receiving backs last year. Volume and an every-down role alone keep McCaffrey as a must-start this week, but temper expectations, especially until Mayfield realizes that McCaffrey is the straw that stirs the drink.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Last week, Moore saw a 24.0% target share while running about 82% of his routes on the outside. Moore is still finding his way with Mayfield, so patience is advised. Moore is still the insanely talented receiver who was tenth in route wins last year. Moore is best viewed as a mid to low-end WR2 as a possible volume play in a tougher matchup. The outside tandem of Adoree Jackson and Aaron Robinson held up well in Week 1. Last year Jackson allowed a 55.7% catch rate and 73.4 passer rating in coverage. Robinson was similarly tough, giving up a 57.1% catch rate and 84.4 passer rating.

Update: Aaron Robinson is out for Week 2 (appendectomy). Third round rookie Cordale Flott will likely assume his spot opposite Adoree Jackson. In the preseason, Flott allowed a 50% catch rate (four targets) with a 107.3 passer rating. This is a small boost for D.J. Moore.

Robbie Anderson: Anderson finished Week 1 as the WR10 on the strength of a 75-yard house call. Anderson drew a 32.0% target share from Mayfield on nearly every route on the perimeter. Anderson was 56th in route win rate last year, so pardon me if I need to see it for a few weeks to proclaim Anderson as “being back.” With Jackson and Robinson to tangle with this week, I expect the target share to tilt back to Moore’s favor.

Kenny Golladay: Golladay is dust. Don’t start him. Good things don’t happen with Golladay in your lineup these days. Golladay’s Week 1 finish as the WR84 is likely the new normal. He saw a 9.5% target share running a route on 71.4% of dropbacks. His 74th ranking in route win rate last year doesn’t look to have improved this offseason. Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn should have no problems containing him on about 86% of his routes. Jackson allowed a 55.7% catch rate and 73.4 passer rating last year. Horn has only allowed a 50% catch rate and 49 receiving yards (ten targets) in his young career.

Sterling Shepard: Shepard walked away from Week 1 with only two targets, but he made one count with a 65-yard touchdown. Shepard surprised with a route on 85.7% of Jones’ dropbacks. This offense is starving for receiver production. If Shepard can be close to the receiver that was 21st in route win rate and first in win rate against man coverage last year, he could lead the team in targets. Shepard will line up against Jackson and Horn on 65% of his routes.

Richie James: James and not Kadarius Toney (Wan’Dale Robinson left with an injury) took over the team’s starting slot role (72.7% slot) in Week 1. While Toney could be recovering from injury or possibly in the dog house, James could remain the starting slot until Robinson is healthy. James led the group with a 28.6% target share. He posted a healthy 2.95 yards per route run. The targets could slide his direction again in Week 2 as the easiest corner matchups on the board are for James this week. Myles Hartsfield and Jeremy Chin split up slot coverage last week and could do so again in this game. Hartsfield allowed an 82.1% catch rate and 122.8 passer rating last year. Chin was better, permitting a 64.7% catch rate and 90.6 passer rating from the slot in 2021.

Update: Wan’Dale Robinson has been ruled out. Kadarius Toney is questionable (hamstring). Even if Toney plays, you’re not starting him.

Tight Ends

If you’re considering starting a tight end from CAR or NYG, you’ve got some serious roster concerns. All of the tight ends from these two rosters combined for five targets in Week 1. There are rabbit holes to dive down for deep league plays. This isn’t it. A venomous snake occupies this one. Don’t let your team get bitten. Each of these defenses was top 12 in DVOA against the position last year.

Check out my DFS advice for this and all games >>

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