Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 10 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

Not all air yards are created equally. While Mahomes led the league with 266 air yards last week, it took 68 pass attempts to reach that feat. His 68 pass attempts were only a few away from the NFL record for the most in a game. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa had the best aDOT last week (6.8) and only 61 fewer air yards than Mahomes. Yet, the Kansas City quarterback had more than double the number of pass attempts. Mahomes’ air yards and pass attempts have been on the rise lately. We will see if the Chiefs can get a running game going or will need to rely on Mahomes’ arm for the rest of the season.

Despite his 3.9 aDOT, Mahomes wasn’t the most ineffective passer in Week 9. Brady had the second-most pass attempts last week, 15 more than Rodgers in third place. Yet, he had 27 fewer air yards than the Green Bay quarterback and a bottom-six aDOT (2.9). Furthermore, he was the only quarterback last week with an aDOT below 3.4 and over 110 air yards. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got a win over the Los Angeles Rams, Brady and the offense were far from impressive.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

It is no surprise to see Hill at the top of the wide receiver list this week. The Miami star receiver has been consistently in the top-10 air yards rankings this season. He has finished either first or second in air yards in 55.6% of the weeks this year, including two straight weeks as the No. 1 guy. In those five games, the veteran receiver has averaged 117.4 air yards per game and a 9.2 aDOT. While many thought Hill would struggle without Mahomes, the superstar receiver has put together the best year of his career.

Sometimes it’s good to be a superstar like Hill, and other times it’s better to be lucky like Samuel. The Washington receiver has been solid this year, averaging 29.1 air yards per game before Sunday’s matchup against the Vikings. However, the veteran receiver had a 49-yard touchdown in the third quarter, accounting for 75% of his air yards in the game. The only reason Samuel was able to make the catch was that the official accidentally knocked the Minnesota defensive back out of the play. Good things happen when Lady Luck is on your side.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Much like Mahomes, Kelce had a very inefficient performance in Week 9. The superstar leads all tight ends in air yards (389) and targets (77) while posting a solid aDOT (5.1) this season. Before last week, Kelce had a 5.5 aDOT and averaged 47.3 air yards per game. His performance in Week 9 put a damper on his season averages. However, it’s no surprise Kelce saw 17 targets and a 25% target share, with Mahomes throwing the ball 68 times. Meanwhile, the backup tight end Gray had a solid performance with his limited targets. Despite finishing 20th among tight ends in targets last week, Gray was fourth in air yards.

The NFL trade deadline was full of excitement this season. However, one move no one saw coming was the Detroit Lions sending Hockenson to their divisional rivals. While the move came out of nowhere, the veteran tight end had a strong performance in his first game with the Vikings. Hockenson had the second-most air yards on the team, finishing only behind Jefferson. Furthermore, he had 57 air yards and nine targets in the game, nine more air yards, and two more targets than Adam Thielen. More importantly, Hockenson accounted for 90% of the Minnesota tight end targets and 98.3% of their air yards. Fantasy players should be excited to see what the former Iowa star can do in Minnesota.

The Top Five Underperformers

Despite having the 14th most targets among tight ends, Smith had negative 10 air yards, the fewest in the NFL last week. Furthermore, his four targets were the second-most on the team in Week 9. Surprisingly, the former Tennessee Titan scored only 3.4 half-point PPR fantasy points fewer than Hunter Henry despite having 45 fewer air yards. Meanwhile, Henry has averaged 18.2 air yards per game and a 5.9 aDOT this season. The Patriots are on a bye this week, so it will be interesting to see what fantasy players get out of the team’s tight ends in Week 11.

While Fields was the talk of the fantasy world the past few days, his receiving corps deserves some credit. Kmet has been the TE2 over the past two weeks, scoring three touchdowns and averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, Mooney has scored 9.5 or more half-point PPR fantasy points in three of the past four contests, including a season-high 14 fantasy points in Week 9. However, the duo combined for only 41 air yards last week. Yet, they accounted for 58.6% of Fields’ air yards against Miami. If Chicago’s passing attack continues to improve, Kmet and Mooney could be critical pieces to a fantasy championship roster.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.