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NFL Week 12 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

NFL Week 12 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

It is almost unfair how quickly the season goes by. It felt like a few short days ago that I was eagerly awaiting DraftKings and FanDuel to drop their opening weekend player salaries, and now we are headed into the week 12 Sunday main slate. Let’s make the most of it.

This weekly series aims to pick some of the better plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel based on the probability of outperforming their respective salaries. Last week’s article identified the QB1, QB9, RB6, WR22, and TE5 for the week.

Let’s build on that success and discuss some of the better values this slate offers.

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Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) $6,700

If you read last week’s value article, Joe Burrow was mentioned there as well. He finished as the QB1 for the week after posting 355 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. It was his third QB1 performance of the season. Despite the frequency of his high weekly finishes, Burrow’s salary remains within the confines of being a value play.

This week the Bengals prowl into Titans territory. Tennessee is the 29th-ranked defense against quarterbacks, allowing an average of 287.7 passing yards per contest. At the time of this writing, Joe Mixon‘s availability due to concussion protocol is still a question mark for this offense. Samaje Perine operated as the lead back in Mixon’s absence last week. While he performed above expectation as a pass catcher, he left plenty to be desired as a rusher, averaging 2.7 yards per attempt.

The Titans’ run defense is far more formidable than their pass defense. Expect either running back to struggle on the ground. The points in this game are going to come through the air. Burrow is lined up nicely for another big game, and so are his pass catchers.

FanDuel

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) $7,900 vs. ARI

After sustaining fractured rib cartilage back in week two, Justin Herbert took some healing to resume looking like the quarterback we have seen for the last two seasons. Of course, missing his top two receiving options was also a factor. Last week, Keenan Allen returned but played limited snaps. Gerald Everett was sidelined with a groin injury, and Mike Williams had to make an early exit after what was reported to be a reaggravation of his ankle. Herbert still managed his first multiple-touchdown contest in the last three games and his highest yards per attempt average of this season.

The Cardinals are hopeful to have Kyler Murray back under center, and we should see Marquise Brown return to some limited action as well. This game has the highest over/under of any on this slate at 48. With the return of some weapons on both sides of the ball, this game has shootout potential.

Herbert seems very much like a buy-low candidate this week for DFS purposes and in a game that could be back and forth, as neither defense is currently defining the word “imposing.”

Running Backs

DraftKings

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) $5,400 vs. CHI

There has been a quarterback change for the Jets. Zach Wilson was benched Wednesday in favor of Mike White. While this move feels more adjacent than improvement, some trickle-down effects here must be factored in. And Michael Carter is certainly one of them.

Carter became a very PPR-friendly running back in a five-game sample size with Mike White under center. Let’s take a look at a few numbers, specifically the receiving work.

Metric With Mike White Without Mike White
Games 5.0 19.0
PPR Points 16.2 9.1
Rush Attempts 12.6 9.3
Rushing Yards 44.2 40.4
Rushing TD 0.4 0.3
Targets 6.6 3.0
Receptions 4.6 2.0
Receiving Yards 48.0 14.7
Receiving TD 0.0 0.0
Target Share 15.6 9.4

*Splits data courtesy of DLF

In all fairness, it is a small sample size, and that is where a good matchup comes into play. This week, the Jets host the Chicago Bears, who have remained a favorable matchup for running backs this season. They are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and surrendering an average of 109.5 rushing yards per game. They also allow an average of four receptions for 40 yards per game.

In a game that could prove interesting, Carter is a low-cost, low-roster percentage play that offers enough potential upside to be in GPP consideration. While splitting work with Breece Hall and then James Robinson, Carter has finished as an RB2 four times this season. This game should favor him seeing a few more targets providing a glimmer of some upside.

FanDuel

Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB – MIA) $7,700 vs. HOU

If Raheem Mostert is declared out, which is looking more and more likely, then Jeff Wilson will climb the roster percentage ladder into the realm of chalk. Due to that, he is more likely a cash game play this week but shouldn’t be ignored as a potentially pivotal piece.

In his two games played with the Dolphins, he finished as the RB8 and the RB7, respectively, and totaled 170 rushing yards and one touchdown on 26 carries. During that two-game span, he has also seen eight targets.

Meanwhile, the Houston Texans’ rush defense allows the most fantasy production to the position. Per game, they’re allowing 153.6 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns to the position. Expect the Dolphins to play with a lead, paving the way for clock-control mode, which will only enhance Wilson’s opportunities.

There is good chalk and traps. Wilson looks for more like the good chalk of the week at the position based on salary and matchup. He should be in cash lineups.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Christian Kirk (JAC) $6,500 vs. BAL

Over the last three games, there have been two wide receivers that have caught five touchdown passes. Davante Adams and Christian Watson. During that same span, Christian Kirk comes in third with three touchdowns. He has been the WR6 during that stretch and gets another good receiver matchup this week. On the season, he is WR9 in PPR scoring formats and has the 10th-most targets among wide receivers. Honestly, it seems like he is being somewhat overlooked as a DFS option.

Kirk is averaging 8.2 targets per game and a team-leading 2.88 fantasy points per touch average. He has solidified himself as Trevor Lawrence‘s go-to weapon. This week he draws a solid matchup and a game script that will favor pass catchers. While the Ravens have seemingly lost some of the steam that they opened the season with, they remain in games consistently and find ways to score.

The Ravens are the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, including an average of 185.1 yards per game. The Jaguars will find themselves playing from behind at some point, and Lawrence has shown signs of growth this season, utilizing Kirk’s abilities to do so. With an expected roster percentage of under 10%, Kirk slots in as a safe play with an upside for GPP contests.

FanDuel

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – CLE) $6,300 vs. TB

Donovan Peoples-Jones has been one of the more overlooked wide receivers over the last several weeks. He has maintained a 20% target share since week four of the season. He has finished as a WR3 or better in half of his games this season, including a WR14 finish last week. The only thing different was the addition of his first touchdown of the season. It took one score to land him firmly in the top 15 at the position.

Peoples-Jones is averaging 6.1 targets and 57.5 receiving yards this season. He has gone over 60 yards in all but three games this season and has seen a red zone target in four of his last five games.

The Buccanneers are middle of the road in terms of pass defense this season, allowing 142.4 receiving yards and .9 receiving touchdowns per contest. With the Bucs expected to establish an early lead, the Browns again rely on Jacoby Brissett to funnel yards through the air. DPJ has had a long reception of 30-plus yards in five games this season.

Peoples-Jones has been steady flex-type production for DFS for most of the season. He works best as a tournament dart-throw with both a floor and upside heading into this slate.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Mark Andrews (BAL) $6,500 vs. JAC

It is another rough week for the tight end position. Between questionable tags for some of the more stream-worthy players to brutal matchups for the others, it is shaping up to be a week worth paying up at the position.

After a one-week absence, Mark Andrews resumed his role and finished with the second-most targets, receptions, and receiving yards last week and played 93% of the snaps with no apparent setbacks.

The Jaguars have allowed two tight ends to clear 80-plus receiving yards over their last four games. One of which was Travis Kelce, which is to be expected. The other was Foster Moreau, who has only snuck into the top ten once this season.

The Ravens have struggled to move the ball with the same consistency as they were earlier in the season. This game has a range of outcomes, but one of the constants is that a healthy Mark Andrews will get targets.

FanDuel

Gerald Everett (TE – LAC) $5,200 vs. ARI

If players are looking to punt on a bad tight end week, then look no further than Gerald Everett. He is TE12 on the season in fantasy points per game, despite missing a full game and a noticeable chunk of another. He is averaging 6.1 targets per game, which is also slightly skewed due to his leaving the week 10 matchup early with a groin injury.

The Chargers take on the Cardinals and their 31st-ranked defense against the position. Only the Seahawks are a better matchup for tight ends this season. The matchup is great. Everett is returning at a time in which Mike Williams is not expected to play. There will be a role for the big man who has not sniffed the end zone since week four. The rag-tag group of tight ends that rolled out for the Chargers in last week’s loss to the Chiefs did not do anything to warrant taking more targets, so expect Everett to step back into his role.

It is not a perfect play and should probably be used for GPP contests, but it remains a gnarly week to dumpster dive for the position.

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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.

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