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UPDATE NOTE (Sat. 12/17, 11:15 am ET): This piece has been updated.
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 15
Here are my Week 15 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
- Will probably be high in my rankings relative to the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly Week 15 betting odds.
- Stand out in our industry-leading BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.
- Catch my eye with their Week 15 projections.
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 15 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added per play (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch), expected fantasy points (FPx), fantasy point overperformance (FPOP).
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) at CHI: Eagles -9 | 48.5 O/U
- Since the Week 8 bye, Hurts has 1,643-16-1 passing with a nice 69.1% completion rate and 9.4 AY/A and 62-393-4 rushing in seven games.
- Hurts has steadily progressed as a passer throughout his career and now ranks No. 2 in AY/A (8.9) and No. 3 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.161, per RBs Don’t Matter).
- Hurts has an incredibly high Konami Code floor, given that he’s No. 1 at the position in carries inside the five-yard line (18, per our Red Zone Stats Report) and total carries (139, per our Fantasy Football Stats Report).
- For the season, Hurts is the No. 1 quarterback with 26.0 FPPG (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report).
- The Bears are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%) and pass DVOA (27.6%, per Football Outsiders).
- Hurts is now the MVP frontrunner (-175 at DraftKings).
"Jalen Hurts is the most improved passer I've ever seen in my life. … I've never seen a guy transform this way."
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) December 13, 2022
Josh Allen (BUF) vs. MIA: Bills -7.5 | 42 O/U
- Since the Week 7 bye, Allen has just one 300-yard throwing performance (1,573-9-7 passing, 6.2 AY/A), looking more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the 2020-21 dominator (7.6 AY/A) — but he has had an elite fantasy floor with 52-371-4 rushing in the seven-game sample.
- The Dolphins are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (20.7 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
Allen Update (Sat. 12/17): I still have Allen as a top-three quarterback, but there could be significant weather issues in this game, so I’ve adjusted my expectations downward.
— Patrick Hammer (@pathammer) December 17, 2022
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. TEN: Chargers -3 | 47 O/U
- In his four games since No. 1 WR Keenan Allen returned in Week 11, Herbert has been at his best (1,256-7-1 passing, 71.4% completion rate), and he was especially strong in Week 14 (367-1-0 passing, 76.5% completion rate) with the reappearance of No. 2 WR Mike Williams.
- For the season, Herbert is No. 2 with 379 completions, 561 pass attempts overall and 156 pass attempts of 10-plus yards (per our Advanced QB Stats Report).
- The Titans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (22.1 FPPG).
Justin Herbert has been pressured 232 times this season. That's 29 more pressures than any other QB.
He has taken *only* 30 sacks. That's a 12.9% pressure to sack rate; fourth lowest in the league amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks.
He makes something out of nothing… A LOT.
— Rob Pizzola (@robpizzola) December 12, 2022
Herbert Update (Sat. 12/17): RT Trey Pipkins (knee) is likely to play through his questionable tag after practicing fully on Friday. The Titans are without CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Elijah Molden (groin, IR), Kristian Fulton (groin), Tre Avery (concussion) and Josh Thompson (knee, IR) and EDGEs Harold Landry (knee, IR) and Denico Autry (knee). Against this decimated defense, Herbert is a top-five quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. LAR: Packers -7 | 39.5 O/U
- Say whatever you want about Rodgers, but he’s No. 2 in the league with nine multi-touchdown passing games.
- The Rams are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.126).
- For his career, Rodgers is 67-37-3 ATS at home, 98-70-3 ATS as a favorite and 9-3-1 ATS off the bye in the regular season (per Action Network).
Rodgers Update (Sat. 12/17): As of writing on Saturday, LT David Bakhtiari (abdomen, knee) seems unlikely to play on MNF after missing back-to-back practices. For the Rams, DTs Aaron Donald (ankle) and Marquise Copeland (ankle) and CB David Long (groin) could sit after not practicing on Thursday and Friday. Rodgers is a high-end QB2.
Mac Jones (NE) at LV: Patriots -1 | 44.5 O/U
- Jones has looked almost like a competent quarterback since the Week 10 bye with 1,058-3-1 passing, a 70.8% completion rate and 7.8 AY/A.
- If I had something else positive to say about Jones, I would put it here.
- Jones has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (28.4%).
Jones Update (Sat. 12/17): WR DeVante Parker (concussion) and OT Isaiah Wynn (foot) are out, but No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers (concussion) and No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) both have a chance to play through their questionable tags. Jones is a matchup-based QB2.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (SF) at SEA: 49ers -3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- Since McCaffrey became a full-time player for the 49ers in Week 8, he has 680 yards and six touchdowns on 81 carries and 33 receptions (plus a 34-yard touchdown pass) in six games.
- Without QB Jimmy Garoppolo (foot, IR), No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) and WR Deebo Samuel (ankle), McCaffrey could have a heavy workload this week.
- Since McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7, they are No. 1 in the league with a 27.6% target share for running backs (per our Targets Distribution Report), and McCaffrey has led the team with 41 targets.
- The Seahawks are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (30.6%) and No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (26.0 FPPG).
Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. TEN: Chargers -3 | 47 O/U
- Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (No. 2 with 21.4 FPPG), and for the year he has 1,257 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage in 13 games.
- Ekeler is the only back to lead the league in targets in any week this year — and he has done that twice (Weeks 6 & 12: 16 & 15 targets) — and for the year he’s No. 1 at the position and No. 8 overall with 112 targets (per our Weekly Target Report).
- Ekeler’s pass-catching ability gives him a consistently high weekly floor.
This is the weekly reminder that Austin Ekeler is pacing for 146 targets & 122 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey holds the single-season records for a running back with 142 & 116 (2019, 16 games).
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 14, 2022
Herbert Update (Sat. 12/17): RT Trey Pipkins (knee) is likely to play through his questionable tag after practicing fully on Friday. The Titans are without starting LBs Zach Cunningham (elbow, IR) and David Long (hamstring, IR). Ekeler is a top-five running back.
Derrick Henry (TEN) at LAC: Titans +3 | 47 O/U
- After underwhelming as a runner (2.8 yards per carry) in Weeks 10-13, Henry broke out last week with 17-121-1 rushing, to which he added 3-34-0 receiving on five targets.
- For the year, Henry still has a dominant 1,519 yards and 11 touchdowns on a league-high 275 carries and career-high 34 targets.
- The Chargers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (23.8 FPPG) and could be without DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (knee) and S Derwin James (quadricep), both of whom missed last week.
Henry Update (Sat. 12/17): Joseph-Day (questionable) is likely to play after practicing every day this week, but James is doubtful. Henry is a top-three fantasy back.
Tony Pollard (DAL) at JAX: Cowboys -4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Even with the Week 11 return of so-called No. 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard has 418 yards and six touchdowns on 55 carries and 16 targets over the past four games.
- Of all backs with 60-plus carries, Pollard is No. 1 with 3.0 yards after contact per attempt (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- The Jaguars have been exploited on the ground in three games since the Week 11 bye (Gus Edwards – 16-52-1 rushing, Jamaal Williams – 11-35-1, D’Andre Swift – 14-62-1, Derrick Henry – 17-121-1).
Tony Pollard forever.
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) December 11, 2022
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at LV: Patriots -1 | 44.5 O/U
- Stevenson (ankle) suffered an injury in Week 14 and is uncertain to suit up this week — but he might be active given that he initially played through it before leaving early.
- No. 2 RB Damien Harris (thigh) exited Week 12 early, sat out Weeks 13-14 and could miss this week.
- In Stevenson’s eight full games this year in which Harris has been out or limited (no more than a 25% snap rate), he has 706 yards and four touchdowns on 102 carries and 46 targets.
- In his 13 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 16.6 FPPG (per FTN).
- A strong pass catcher for a big-bodied back, Stevenson is No. 1 on the Patriots with 70 targets and 58 receptions.
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (40.1%).
Stevenson Update (Sat. 12/17): Stevenson got in a limited session on Friday, so he has a chance to play — but I’m skeptical that he will. Even if he does suit up, he could be in a committee with Harris, who practiced limitedly all week. Stevenson is no longer a favorite, and if he’s out then Harris could be a high-end RB3.
Miles Sanders (PHI) at CHI: Eagles -9 | 48.5 O/U
- Since the Week 7 bye, Sanders has 626 yards and seven touchdowns on 99 carries and 19 targets in seven games.
- The Eagles are No. 3 with a 50.4% rush rate and could have a run-heavy game script as big home favorites (-400 at FanDuel).
- The Bears are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (44.0%).
There’s only one RB this season that has:
-1,000+ rushing yards
-Avg 5+ yards per carry
His name is Miles Sanderspic.twitter.com/wEmPAPAHP8
— David Mendelson (@DMendy02) December 12, 2022
Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. ATL: Saints -4 | 43 O/U
- Kamara last scored a touchdown in Week 8, and he has just 283 yards from scrimmage since Week 9, but he still has averaged 14.2 FPPG on 13.2 carries and 6.4 targets in nine games with QB Andy Dalton (per RotoViz).
- Coming off the Week 14 bye, Kamara should be rested and ready, and he could see a large workload as a home favorite (-200 at BetMGM), especially without No. 2 RB Mark Ingram (knee, IR).
- The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.018) and rush DVOA (3.8%).
Zonovan Knight (NYJ) vs. DET: Jets -1 | 44.5 O/U
- Even with the Week 14 return of ostensible No. 1 RB Michael Carter, the undrafted rookie Knight led the Jets with 17-71-1 rushing, and since first seeing action in Week 12 he has 298 yards and a touchdown on 46 carries and 10 targets in three games.
- The Lions are No. 26 in defensive rush EPA (0.009).
Week 5: Saquon Barkley is so back. Fantasy 1.01 if we drafted again today.
Week 15: Zonovan Knight should probably be started over Barkley even if he's a bit healthier.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 13, 2022
Knight Update (Sat. 12/17): QB Mike White (rib) is out, which means that QB Zach Wilson will start for the Jets, who get a downgrade across the entire offense. For the Lions, LB Derrick Barnes (knee) is out and DT Michael Brockers (illness) is doubtful. Knight is a mid-range RB2.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) at HOU: Chiefs -14 | 49.5 O/U
- No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon has been the flashier producer over the past two weeks (194 yards, three touchdowns on 14 carries, 11 targets), but Pacheco has had a steady 15-plus opportunities in each game as the lead back ever since former starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire was demoted to the No. 3 role in Week 10.
- Pacheco could benefit from a run-heavy game script as a big favorite (-900 at Caesars).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (27.4 FPPG).
- The Chiefs have a week-high 32-point implied total in our Week 15 DFS cheat sheet.
Pacheco Update (Sat. 12/17): On defense, the Texans are without DT Taylor Stallworth (calf). Pacheco is a solid RB2.
David Montgomery (CHI) vs. PHI: Bears +9 | 48.5 O/U
- No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert (hip, IR) hasn’t played since exiting Week 10 early, and he’ll be out at least one more game before he’s activated.
- Without Herbert, Montgomery has 301 yards and two touchdowns on 45 carries and 13 targets in three games since Week 10, and he should be fresh off the Week 14 bye.
- The Eagles are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (44.6%).
Montgomery Update (Sat. 12/17): RT Larry Borom (knee) is doubtful, but Montgomery is still a mid-range RB2.
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) at CLE: Ravens +2.5 | 38.5 O/U
- In his Week 14 return to action, Dobbins led the Ravens backfield with 26 snaps and 15-120-1 rushing.
- Dobbins could have a heavy workload without starting QB Lamar Jackson (knee) and maybe backup QB Tyler Huntley (concussion).
- The Browns are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.085).
WELCOME BACK JK DOBBINS 🔥
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 11, 2022
Dobbins Update (Sat. 12/17): Jackson is out, so Huntley will start in his absence. I expect RT Morgan Moses (knee) and RG Kevin Zeitler (knee) to play through their questionable tags.
Brian Robinson (WAS) vs. NYG: Commanders -4.5 | 40.5 O/U
- Robinson should be the best version of himself out of the Week 14 bye, and in his four most recent games he has 379 yards and two touchdowns on 85 opportunities.
- Against Giants in Week 13, Robinson had 21-96-0 rushing and 2-15-0 receiving on two targets.
- Robinson could have a heavier-than-usual workload as a home favorite (-210 at PointsBet).
- The Giants are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (10.7%) and could be without DT Leonard Williams (neck), who missed last week.
Robinson Update (Sat. 12/17): RG Saahdiq Charles (concussion) is out, and I expect Williams (questionable) to play. Robinson is a low-end RB2.
Cam Akers (LAR) at GB: Rams +7 | 39.5 O/U
- Over the past two weeks, Akers has played as the clear lead back for the Rams, amassing a tolerable 103 yards and desirable three touchdowns on 29 carries and two targets.
- The Packers are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (47.6%) and rush DVOA (12.0%).
- I know, it’s gross.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. IND: Vikings -4 | 48.5 O/U
- Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 101.0 yards on 9.7 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.4 yards per target.
- Jefferson is No. 1 in the league with 59, 25, 14 and six receptions of 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- Jefferson is No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,516 yards receiving in his first three seasons.
- The Colts are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (19.7%).
Justin Jefferson is 465 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson's record for most receiving yards in a season 🤯
— PFF Bet (@PFF_Bet) December 13, 2022
Jefferson Update (Sat. 12/17): For the Colts, CB Kenny Moore (ankle) is out and CB Brandon Facyson (illness) is doubtful. Jefferson is my No. 1 wide receiver overall.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) at TB: Bengals -3.5 | 44 O/U
- In his two games back from a hip injury, Chase has 17-216-1 receiving on 23 targets and 1-6-0 rushing.
- Chase could have legendary usage in Week 15 given that WRs Tee Higgins (hamstring) and Tyler Boyd (finger) and TE Hayden Hurst (calf) are all dealing with injuries and uncertain to play.
- The Buccaneers are No. 9 in defensive dropback EPA (0.005) and dropback SR (44.4%) — but they could be without CBs Jamel Dean (toe) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (quadricep), CB/S Antoine Winfield (ankle) and S Mike Edwards (hamstring).
Chase Update (Sat. 12/17): Hurst is out, but Boyd and Higgins are likely to play through their questionable tags after practicing fully on Friday. Dean is out, but Murphy-Bunting, Winfield and Edwards are all likely questionables. Chase is still a top-three fantasy receiver, but I’m less enthusiastic about him than I previously was.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) at JAX: Cowboys -4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Lamb disappointed last week with 33 scoreless yards, but in five games since the Week 9 bye he has still accumulated 439 yards and three touchdowns on 44 targets and four carries.
- For the year, Lamb he has a dominant 117 targets in 13 games.
- The Jaguars are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (24.3%).
A.J. Brown (PHI) at CHI: Eagles -9 | 48.5 O/U
- Since the Week 7 bye, Brown has a protein-rich 32-517-8 receiving on 49 targets in seven games, and he’s easily pacing to hit career-high marks in targets (102), yards (1,020) and touchdowns (10), given his current numbers.
- For his career, Brown has an elite 10.1 yards per target.
- The Bears are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (30.9%).
Keenan Allen (LAC) vs. TEN: Chargers -3 | 47 O/U
- Since returning in Week 11 from a hamstring injury, Allen has 28-323-2 receiving on 43 targets in four games.
- The Titans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (34.7 FPPG) and could be without CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Kristian Fulton (groin), Elijah Molden (groin) and Tre Avery (concussion), all of whom were out last week.
i'm sorry but keenan allen and justin herbert pointing at each other after they connected for a 1st down is so stinking cute
— Linda™ (@Lindellions) December 12, 2022
Allen Update (Sat. 12/17): Farley, Fulton, Molden and Avery are all out. Allen is a low-end WR1.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs. NYG: Commanders -4.5 | 40.5 O/U
- Since Week 7 — when backup QB Taylor Heinicke took over for injured starter Carson Wentz — McLaurin has been the best version of himself with 40-578-2 receiving on 61 targets in seven games.
- In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin had 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
- McLaurin is No. 2 this year among all wide receivers — second only to Justin Jefferson — with 831 snaps played (per our Snap Count Leaders Report).
- Against the Giants in Week 13, McLaurin had 8-105-1 receiving on 12 targets.
- The Giants are No. 26 in defensive pass DVOA (12.4%) and could be without No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee), who last played in Week 11.
McLaurin Update (Sat. 12/17): Jackson is out. McLaurin is on the WR1/2 borderline.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) vs. DET: Jets -1 | 44.5 O/U
- Wilson has dramatic splits this year without benched QB Zach Wilson, averaging just 6.5 FPPG with him but 16.2 on 10.7 targets in six games without him.
- WR Corey Davis (concussion) exited Week 14 early and is uncertain for Week 15, so Wilson could see extra targets in his absence.
- The Lions are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.7 FPPG).
Wilson Update (Sat. 12/17): Davis is out — but so is White (rib). In his absence, QB Zach Wilson will start for the Jets, who get a downgrade across the entire offense. Wilson is now an upside/downside WR2 and no longer one of my favorites. Pain.
Mike Williams (LAC) vs. TEN: Chargers -3 | 47 O/U
- Williams had a team-best 6-116-1 receiving on six targets in his Week 14 return from ankle injury, and in his eight games this year with a snap rate of at least 50% he has 43-611-4 receiving on 65 targets.
- The Titans are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (25.0%).
The fact that the #Chargers can scheme up a deep corner route for Mike Williams while rolling the pocket away from the route cause they know Herbert can make this throw is absurd. pic.twitter.com/TAgHAbbAX3
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) December 12, 2022
Williams Update (Sat. 12/17): The Titans are without CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Elijah Molden (groin, IR), Kristian Fulton (groin), Tre Avery (concussion) and Josh Thompson (knee, IR). Williams is a high-end WR2.
Chris Godwin (TB) vs. CIN: Buccaneers +3.5 | 44 O/U
- Since his Week 4 return from injury, Godwin in 10 games has seen an elite 105 targets, which he has leveraged into 70-667-2 receiving.
- The Bengals are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (19.5%) and are without CB Chidobe Awuzie (knee, IR).
Godwin Update (Sat. 12/17): The Bengals are without CB Mike Hilton (knee), and I’m skeptical that WR Julio Jones (knee) will play through his injury after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Godwin is a high-end volume-based WR2.
DeVonta Smith (PHI) at CHI: Eagles -9 | 48.5 O/U
- Since the Week 7 bye, Smith has eight-plus targets in six of seven games, and over the past month he has 20-294-2 receiving on 34 targets.
- The Bears are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.215).
Chris Olave (NO) vs. ATL: Saints -4 | 43 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 5 early and missing Week 6 with a concussion, Olave had 43-619-3 receiving on 69 targets in nine games without No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot, IR) in Weeks 4-13 before entering the bye.
- Olave ranks No. 3 in the league with 118.2 air yards per game and a 20% target rate on snaps played (per our Snap Count Analysis Report).
- The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.135) and pass DVOA (18.8%).
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) vs. ARI: Broncos -3 | 36.5 O/U
- Last week, Jeudy lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 29.3 fantasy points on 8-73-3 receiving with nine targets.
- If WRs Courtland Sutton (hamstring) and Kendall Hinton (hamstring) are out or limited, Jeudy could have double-digit targets.
- The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.7%) and could be without No. 1 CB Byron Murphy (back), who has been out since Week 10.
— Madden NFL 23 (@EAMaddenNFL) December 11, 2022
Jeudy Update (Sat. 12/17): QB Russell Wilson (concussion) is out, which might hurt the offense … but maybe not. Sutton and Hinton are also out, as is Murphy. Jeudy’s a shoot-the-moon WR3.
D.J. Moore (CAR) vs. PIT: Panthers -2.5 | 38.5 O/U
- Moore (ankle) had only six scoreless yards on three targets and two carries in Week 14 — and he also suffered an in-game injury, but an MRI has revealed his sprain to be minor, and in his only other game this year with QB Sam Darnold he had 4-103-1 receiving on six targets (Week 12).
- In 12 games with Darnold last year, Moore averaged a near-elite 9.8 targets, which he leveraged into 70.7 yards per game.
- The Steelers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (31.3 FPPG) and are without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring, IR) and William Jackson (back, IR).
Moore Update (Sat. 12/17): Moore (questionable) practiced fully on Wednesday and Thursday before downshifting to limited on Friday. End-of-week practice downgrades are almost never good, but I think the limited session had more to do with maintenance than with an actual concern about Moore’s availability — but I could be wrong. His situation should be monitored. Moore’s a talent-based WR3.
Christian Watson (GB) vs. LAR: Packers -7 | 39.5 O/U
- In the absence of fellow rookie WR Romeo Doubs (ankle), Watson has gone off his past four games with 15-313-7 receiving on a team-high 27 targets and 2-49-1 rushing.
- Even with No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (26.6%).
Watson Update (Sat. 12/17): As of writing on Saturday, the Rams could be without CB David Long (groin), who missed practice on Thursday and Friday. Watson is an upside WR2.
Michael Pittman (IND) at MIN: Colts +4 | 48.5 O/U
- Since QB Matt Ryan’s Week 10 reinstallment as the starter, Pittman has an acceptable 31 targets in four games … but don’t look too closely at his production over that time.
- The Vikings are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (34.1 FPPG).
Zay Jones (JAX) vs. DAL: Jaguars +4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 5 from an ankle injury, Jones — with the exception of touchdowns (1 vs. 4) — has been a co-No. 1 option with Christian Kirk based on snap rate (90% vs. 88%), targets (74 vs. 70), receptions (49 vs. 47) and scrimmage yards (503 vs. 551).
- The Cowboys are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA (-18.9%) — but they could be without all three starting cornerbacks given that Jourdan Lewis (foot, IR) and Anthony Brown (Achilles, IR) are out and Trevon Diggs (thumb) suffered an injury last week.
ZAY JONES. HOW?! 🤯
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 11, 2022
Jones Update (Sat. 12/17): Diggs was not listed on any injury report this week. He’s playing. Jones is a solid WR3.
Drake London (ATL) vs. NO: Falcons +4 | 43 O/U
- With a career-best 12 targets and 95 yards receiving in Week 13, London entered the bye with some #Momentum, and the switch from QB Marcus Mariota to rookie Desmond Ridder could energize the Falcons offense.
- The Saints are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (20.3%).
London Update (Sat. 12/17): I expect CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) to return to action this week for the Saints, but S P.J. Williams (knee) is out. London is on the WR3/4 borderline.
Jakobi Meyers (NE) at LV: Patriots -1 | 44.5 O/U
- Meyers (concussion) has a nonexistent 10-136-0 receiving on 15 targets in three games since the Week 10 bye — and he missed Week 14 with a head injury — but I tentatively expect him to clear the league’s protocol for Week 15, and he’s still No. 1 on the Patriots with 593 yards receiving.
- The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.172) and are without CB Anthony Averett (toe, IR).
Meyers Update (Sat. 12/17): Meyers practiced every day this week (albeit limitedly), so he has a real chance to clear the league’s protocol by Sunday.
Chris Moore (HOU) vs. KC: Texans +14 | 49.5 O/U
- In the absence of Nos. 1-2 WRs Brandin Cooks (calf) and Nico Collins (foot), Moore had a season-best 10-124-0 receiving on 11 targets, and he has an explosive 9.1 yards per target throughout his two years with the Texans.
- Both Cooks and Collins are uncertain for Week 15 given that neither practiced at all last week.
- At home in a dome, the Texans could have a pass-heavy game script as massive underdogs (+670 at BetRivers).
- The Chiefs are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (31.9 FPPG).
CHRIS MOORE. ONE HAND.
📺 » FOX pic.twitter.com/Ez8bQjsoCD
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 11, 2022
Moore Update (Sat. 12/17): Cooks and Collins are both out. Moore is a circumstantial WR4/flex.
Richie James (NYG) at WAS: Giants +4.5 | 40.5 O/U
- James (concussion) exited Week 14 early with a head injury, so he’s uncertain to play, but if he does he could be a viable flyer: Since slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11, James has a functional 18-170-3 receiving on 21 targets in four games.
- The Commanders are No. 26 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (15.5%).
James Update (Sat. 12/17): James has cleared the protocol. He’s a play-and-pray flex option for the desperate.
Check out my Week 15 early betting preview on Giants at Commanders.
Marquise Goodwin (SEA) vs. SF: Seahawks +3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 6 from a knee injury, Goodwin has 21-324-4 receiving on 25 targets with a 52% snap rate in seven games.
- In his three games this year with a touchdown, Goodwin has 16.4 FPPG; in his 16 career games with a touchdown, 15.5 FPPG — when Godwin finds the end zone he tends to go off.
- The 49ers are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (38.5%).
- “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
- If you’re looking for a Hail Mary, Goodwin might be your prayer.
Marquise Goodwin: Does anything
Commentator: Did you know he was an Olympic long-jumper?
— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) December 11, 2022
Check out my Week 15 early betting preview on Seahawks vs. 49ers.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. IND: Vikings -4 | 48.5 O/U
- Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, Hockenson is No. 2 on the team in targets (48) and receptions (36), and he barely trails WR Adam Thielen (294) at No. 3 in yards receiving (292).
- The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (19.0%).
Dalton Schultz (DAL) at JAX: Cowboys -4.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Returning from injury in Week 7, Schultz has 32-350-3 receiving on 45 targets in his past seven games, and last week he hit season-high marks in targets (10) and yards receiving (87).
- The Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (39.2%).
Greg Dulcich (DEN) vs. ARI: Broncos -3 | 36.5 O/U
- With a limited WR Courtland Sutton (hamstring) in Week 13 and no Sutton in Week 14, Dulcich has 9-127-0 receiving on 16 targets over his past two games.
- Sutton and also WR Kendall Hinton (hamstring) are uncertain for Week 15.
- The Cardinals are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (15.1 FPPG).
- Dulcich is one of our top Week 15 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
I'm just sayin … be careful about crossing Greg Dulcich pic.twitter.com/Ar5qPPKCNH
— Matt Schauf (@SchaufDS) December 7, 2022
Dulcich Update (Sat. 12/17): QB Russell Wilson (concussion) is out, which might hurt the offense … but maybe not. Sutton and Hinton are also out. as is Murphy. Dulcich is a mid-range TE1.
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. PHI: Bears +9 | 48.5 O/U
- Kmet has had at least a 90% snap rate in every game starting in Week 3, and in that 11-game sample he has 35-408-5 receiving on 48 targets.
- In Week 13 — his one full game this year without No. 1 WR Darnell Mooney (ankle, IR) — Kmet had a season-best seven targets and six receptions, which he leveraged into 72 yards.
- The Eagles are without S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (abdomen, IR).
Kmet Update (Sat. 12/17): The Bears are without WR Chase Claypool (knee), and the Eagles are without S Reed Blankenship (knee). Kmet is an upside TE2.
Dawson Knox (BUF) vs. MIA: Bills -7.5 | 42 O/U
- In eight games since returning from injury in Week 6, Knox has had either 50 yards or a touchdown five times.
- The Bills could have a shorter passing attack than usual, given that the game is forecast for heavy snow.
- The Dolphins are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (11.9 FPPG).
Knox Update (Sat. 12/17): S Eric Rowe (hamstring) is out for the Dolphins. Knox is a high-end TE2.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) at LAC: Titans +3 | 47 O/U
- Blessed with an elite combination of size (6’3″ and 238 pounds) and speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash), Okonkwo as a rookie has flashed electric playmaking ability (10.3 yards per target), and among all qualified tight ends he’s No. 1 in the league with 2.58 yards per route (per PFF).
- Okonkwo leads all tight ends with three receptions of 40-plus yards (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
I’m taking over 8.0 fantasy points on Okonkwo in the Week 15 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
The most efficient TE in the NFL this season:
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) December 12, 2022
Okonkwo Update (Sat. 12/17): No. 1 WR Treylon Burks (concussion) is out, and Chargers S Derwin James (quadricep) is doubtful. Okonkwo is an upside TE2.
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