Freedman’s Favorites: Week 16 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Freedman’s Favorites: Week 16 (2022 Fantasy Football)

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UPDATE NOTE (Fri. 12/23, 12:05 am ET): This piece has been updated.

Freedman’s Favorites: Top 10 Christmas Movies

In the words of Prince, “I’m a man of exquisite taste,” so I’m sure you’re desirous to know my definitive list of all-time Christmas movies, a list that I spent literally minutes researching and thinking about, so you know it’s good.

From 10 to 1, here’s how I’m ranking the top Christmas movies of all time.

Dishonorable Mention: It’s a Wonderful Life

Just a terrible movie, regardless of time of year.

No. 10: Batman Returns

Michelle Pfeiffer in that Catwoman suit … oops, I mean — it’s a Tim Burton movie set in the Christmas season. That’s all the reason I need.

No. 9: Love, Actually

Any Christmastime movie with Alan Rickman as a villain has to be included in the top 10. That’s a rule I just came up with.

No. 8: Any Harry Potter Movie

I’m cheating by including the entire Harry Potter franchise, but there’s a lot of Christmas in the Harry Potter story.

In Philosopher’s Stone, Harry gets his first Christmas present: The Cloak of Invisibility.

In Deathly Hallows: Part 1, Harry on Christmas Eve returns to his birth place and sees his parents’ grave for the first time.

Plus, remember that any Christmastime movie with Alan Rickman as a villain must be included in the top 10. That’s the rule.

No. 7: Muppet Christmas Carol

It’s short, it’s classic and it has Michael Caine and the Muppets. Mandatory top 10.

No. 6: National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation

This might be the best of the National Lampoon’s Vacation series, and this selection lets me get Elaine Julia Louis-Dreyfus on the list.

No. 5: Home Alone

I haven’t watched it in at least 20 years, but any John Hughes-written Chris Columbus-directed film with Joe Pesci and Daniel Stern as the bad guys gets included.

No. 4: Elf

If this is your personal No. 1, you’ll get no complaints from me. My wife and I play it in the background every Thanksgiving evening as we put up the Christmas tree.

Will Ferrell. Zooey Deschanel. James Caan. Mary Steenburgen. Bob Newhart. Peter Dinklage. Amy Sedaris. Great cast.

If you don’t have this in your top five, you sit on a throne of lies and smell like beef and cheese.

No. 3: Bad Santa

Drunk Billy Bob Thornton playing himself in a Santa outfit. Bernie Mac as the murderous bad guy. Peak Lauren Graham as a Santa-philic whiskey-pouring bartender.

Definitely NSFW, but sometimes a little naughty is what one needs in the holiday season. This one goes well with a rummy eggnog.

No. 2: Mixed Nuts

There’s a decent chance you’ve never heard of this. And I’m conflicted as to whether it’s actually a good film.

But it’s a Nora Ephron Christmas movie with Steve Martin, Liev Schreiber, Adam Sandler and Steven Wright. That’s good enough for me.

No. 1: Die Hard

It’s a Christmas movie, and Alan Rickman as the villain. Rules are rules.

Yippee ki-yay, and happy holidays.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 16

Here are my Week 16 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …

I’ll update this piece by Saturday morning with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 16 rankings, not this article.

Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added per play (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch), expected fantasy points (FPx), fantasy point overperformance (FPOP).

Odds are as of Tuesday, Dec. 20, and from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

FantasyPros Accuracy Contest

  • 2022: No. 7 (Weeks 1-15)
  • 2021: No. 14 (Weeks 1-17)

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 Quarterbacks

Josh Allen (BUF) at CHI: Bills -9.5 | 40.5 O/U

  • Since the Week 7 bye, Allen has just two 300-yard throwing performances (1,877-13-7 passing, 6.7 AY/A) and has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the 2020-21 dominator (7.6 AY/A) — but he has had an elite fantasy floor with 62-448-4 rushing in the eight-game sample.
  • Last week he had an MVP-caliber performance (304-4-0 passing, 10-77-0 rushing), and I think he’s a value-based bet to win the award at his current odds (+600 at BetMGM).
  • The Bears are No. 30 in both defensive dropback SR (50.6%, per RBs Don’t Matter) and defensive pass DVOA (22.8%, per Football Outsiders).
  • For his career, Allen is 21-12-2 ATS on the road (per Action Network).

Allen Update (Fri. 12/23): C Mitch Morse (concussion) is out, but Allen is still a top-three fantasy quarterback.

Check out my Week 16 early betting preview on Bills at Bears.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. ATL: Ravens -7.5 | 37.5 O/U

  • Jackson (knee) exited Week 13 early and missed Weeks 14-15, but the team tentatively plans for him to return this week.
  • Before his injury, Jackson was the No. 5 fantasy quarterback with 22.0 FPPG (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report).
  • The Falcons are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.155).

Jackson Update (Fri. 12/23): Jackson is out for at least one more week after failing to practice in any session this week. Backup Tyler Huntley (shoulder, questionable) has a favorable matchup, but he’s not a favorite.

Geno Smith (SEA) at KC: Seahawks +9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (71.4%) and No. 5 in AY/A (8.1) — just as we all expected before the season started.
  • Smith is now the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year (+110 at FanDuel).
  • The Chiefs are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (20.8 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).

Smith Update (Fri. 12/23): I’m slowing my roll on Smith just a little bit. I expected No. 2 WR Tyler Lockett (hand) to miss this game, but No. 3 WR Marquise Goodwin (wrist, ankle) is genuinely questionable after missing practice on Thursday, and TE Noah Fant (knee) missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday before getting in a limited session on Thursday. Smith is still a low-end QB1, but his circumstances have marginally diminished my enthusiasm.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) at MIA: Packers +4 | 49.5 O/U

  • If I had something strongly positive to say about Rodgers, this is where I’d put it.
  • Rodgers is at least No. 5 in the league with nine multi-touchdown passing games — just one game behind Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow at 10.
  • The Dolphins are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (21.8 FPPG).

Rodgers Update (Fri. 12/23): LT David Bakhtiari (knee, abdomen) seems likely to miss another game after sitting out back-to-back practices on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, Rodgers is a matchup-based low-end QB1.

Tom Brady (TB) at ARI: Buccaneers -6.5 | 41 O/U

  • For the season, Brady is No. 1 with 411 completions and 623 pass attempts (per our Advanced QB Stats Report).
  • The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.8%).

Brady Update (Fri. 12/23): LT Donovan Smith (foot) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but at least RT Tristan Wirfs (ankle) and WR Julio Jones (knee) got in limited sessions on both days. Brady is on the QB1/2 borderline.

I’m taking over 18.0 fantasy points on Brady in the Week 16 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 Running Backs

Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. HOU: Titans -5 | 37 O/U

  • After underwhelming as a runner (2.8 yards per carry) in Weeks 10-13, Henry has balled out over the past two weeks with 38-225-2 rushing, to which he has added 7-93-0 receiving on nine targets.
  • For the year, Henry still has a dominant 1,682 yards and 12 touchdowns on a league-high 296 carries and career-high 38 targets (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report).
  • Against the Texans in Week 8, Henry had 228 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries and a target.
  • Henry could have a massive workload this week as a large home favorite (-240 at DraftKings).
  • The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (28.3 FPPG).

Henry Update (Fri. 12/23): QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is out, so the Titans might give Henry as much work as he can handle — but the Titans are also without RG Nate Davis (ankle), C Ben Jones (concussion, IR) and backup G Dillon Radunz (knee, IR). Henry is still my No. 1 running back for now … but I might bump him down a little.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) at IND: Chargers -4 | 46.5 O/U

  • Ekeler disappointed in Weeks 1-3 (2.5 yards per carry, no touchdowns), but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (No. 2 with 20.7 FPPG), and for the year he has 1,327 yards and a league-high 14 touchdowns from scrimmage in 14 games.
  • Ekeler is the only back to lead the league in targets in any week this year — and he has done that twice (Weeks 6 & 12: 16 & 15 targets) — and for the year he’s No. 1 at the position and No. 14 overall with 115 targets (per our Weekly Target Report).
  • The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (18.9%).

Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs. NYG: Vikings -3.5 | 48 O/U

  • Cook’s usage has declined for two straight seasons (22.3 carries, 3.9 targets per game in 2020; 19.2, 3.8 in 2021; 16.4, 3.4 this year) — but he still has four straight years with 1,300-plus yards from scrimmage.
  • Last week, Cook had a dynamic 17-95-0 rushing and 4-95-1 receiving on four targets.
  • The Giants are No. 30 & 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.045) and rush DVOA (10.1%).

Cook Update (Fri. 12/23): C Garrett Bradbury (back) is out, but Cook is still a mid-range RB1.

Tony Pollard (DAL) vs. PHI: Cowboys -5.5 | 46 O/U

  • Even with the Week 11 return of so-called No. 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard has 524 yards and six touchdowns on 74 carries and 21 targets over the past five games.
  • Of all backs with 60-plus carries, Pollard is No. 1 with 2.7 yards after contact per attempt (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).

Alvin Kamara (NO) at CLE: Saints +2.5 | 32 O/U

  • Kamara has scored a touchdown in just one game this year, but he still has averaged 13.9 FPPG on 14.0 carries and 5.9 targets in 10 games with QB Andy Dalton (per FTN).
  • Without No. 2 RB Mark Ingram (knee, IR) last week, Kamara had 104 yards on 21 carries and two targets.
  • The Browns are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.086).

Kamara Update (Fri. 12/23): EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (concussion) is out for the Browns, and the Saints are without WRs Chris Olave (hamstring) and Jarvis Landry (ankle). Kamara is a low-end RB1.

Check out my Week 16 early betting preview on Saints at Browns.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. PHI: Cowboys -5.5 | 46 O/U

  • Despite losing significant work to RB Tony Pollard, Elliott has 385 yards and six touchdowns on 79 carries and 12 targets in five games since returning in Week 11 from a knee injury.
  • Aside from a tough Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers, Elliott has 14-plus opportunities in every game played this year.
  • The Cowboys could have a run-leaning game script as big favorites (-240 at Bet Rivers).
  • The Eagles are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (44.4%).

Najee Harris (PIT) vs. LV: Steelers -3 | 39.5 O/U

  • Since the Week 9 bye, Harris has a non-disappointing 482 yards and five touchdowns on 103 carries and 12 targets in six games.
  • The Raiders are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (23.6 FPPG).

Jerick McKinnon (KC) vs. SEA: Chiefs -9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • Last week, McKinnon lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 30.2 fantasy points on 10-52-1 rushing and 8-70-1 receiving with eight targets.
  • In four games without former starter Clyde-Edwards Helaire (ankle, IR), McKinnon has 342 yards and five touchdowns on 24 carries and 25 targets (plus a two-point conversion).
  • The Seahawks are Nos. 28 & 29 in defensive rush DVOA (4.1%) and pass DVOA against running backs (22.2%).
  • The Chiefs have a week-high 29-point implied total in our Week 16 DFS cheat sheet.

McKinnon Update (Fri. 12/23): NT Al Woods (Achilles) is out for the Seahawks. McKinnon is a high-end RB2.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

Raheem Mostert (MIA) vs. GB: Dolphins -4 | 49.5 O/U

  • Once-and-future teammate Jeff Wilson (hip) exited Week 14 early, missed Week 15 and might be limited in Week 16 if he returns, so Mostert could once again dominate the Dolphins backfield.
  • Mostert played ahead of Wilson in Weeks 13-14, and without him last week he exploded with 156 yards on 17 carries and two targets.
  • The Packers are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (47.3%) and rush DVOA (11.8%).

Check out my Week 16 early betting preview on Dolphins vs. Packers.

Isiah Pacheco (KC) vs. SEA: Chiefs -9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon has gotten the recent headlines, but Pacheco has had a steady 15-plus opportunities in each game as the lead back ever since former starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire was demoted to the No. 3 role in Week 10.
  • Pacheco could benefit from a run-heavy game script as a big home favorite (-480 at Caesars).
  • Pacheco has a five-star matchup against the Seahawks, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (26.2 FPPG).

Pacheco Update (Fri. 12/23): NT Al Woods (Achilles) is out for the Seahawks. Pacheco is on the RB2/3 borderline.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) vs. ATL: Ravens -7.5 | 37.5 O/U

  • Since his Week 14 return to action, Dobbins has led the Ravens backfield with 50 snaps and 28-245-1 rushing.
  • Dobbins could have a heavier workload with QB Lamar Jackson (knee) returning from an injury.
  • The Ravens could lean on the running game even more than usual as sizable home favorites (-350 at PointsBet).
  • The Falcons are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.8%).

Dobbins Update (Fri. 12/23): Jackson is out, so the Ravens will likely continue to utilize their running backs heavily. Dobbins is a solid RB2.

Devin Singletary (BUF) at CHI: Bills -9.5 | 40.5 O/U

  • Singletary is losing snaps to change-of-pace and pass-catching options James Cook and Nyheim Hines — but since the Week 7 bye he still has double-digit opportunities in every game with an average of 12.6 carries and 2.5 targets.
  • The Bears are No. 27 in defensive rush EPA (-0.003) and rush DVOA (3.2%).

Singletary Update (Fri. 12/23): C Mitch Morse (concussion) is out, but Singletary is still a solid RB3.

Zack Moss (IND) vs. LAC: Colts +4 | 46.5 O/U

  • No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) suffered an injury after just two plays in Week 15, and he’ll almost certainly be out in Week 16 given the severity and location of his sprain.
  • In Taylor’s absence last week, Moss led the Colts backfield with 24-81-0 rushing and a 67% snap rate.
  • The Chargers No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (24.0 FPPG).

Moss Update (Fri. 12/23): Taylor (IR) is out. Moss is a play-and-pray RB3.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. NYG: Vikings -3.5 | 48 O/U

  • Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 101.5 yards on 9.9 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.3 yards per target.
  • Jefferson is No. 1 in the league with 111 receptions overall and 64, 26, 14 and six receptions of 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
  • Jefferson is No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,639 yards receiving in his first three seasons.
  • The Giants could be without No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee), who last played in Week 11.

Jefferson Update (Fri. 12/23): Jackson is out. Jefferson is my No. 1 wide receiver overall.

Davante Adams (LV) at PIT: Raiders +3 | 39.5 O/U

  • Adams had just 4-28-0 receiving last week in the return to action for No. 2 WR Hunter Renfrow (ribs) and TE Darren Waller (hamstring), but he still had nine targets.
  • For the season, Adams is No. 1 in the league with a 32.7% target share.
  • The Steelers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (30.8 FPPG) and are without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring, IR) and William Jackson (back, IR).

Stefon Diggs (BUF) at CHI: Bills -9.5 | 40.5 O/U

  • Diggs is the only NFL player with 160-plus targets in each of the past two years, and he has 142 targets in 14 games this year.
  • Diggs is No. 1 at the position with eight top-10 weekly finishes and No. 2 with a 19% target rate per snap (per our Snap Count Analysis Report).
  • The Bears are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.192).

Diggs Update (Fri. 12/23): The Bears are without starting CB Kindle Vildor (ankle). Diggs is a locked-in WR1.

D.K. Metcalf (SEA) at KC: Seahawks +9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • Despite exiting Week 7 early with what seemed to be a serious knee injury, Metcalf somehow suited up for Week 8 and has 48-506-4 receiving on 67 targets in seven games since then.
  • WR Tyler Lockett (finger) is likely to miss Week 16, and Metcalf could see extra targets in his absence.
  • The Chiefs are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (23.7%).

Metcalf Update (Fri. 12/23): Lockett is out, No. 3 WR Marquise Goodwin (wrist, ankle) is genuinely questionable after missing practice on Thursday and TE Noah Fant (knee) missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday before getting in a limited session on Thursday. Metcalf is a solid WR1.

Chris Godwin (TB) at ARI: Buccaneers -6.5 | 41 O/U

  • Since his Week 4 return from injury, Godwin in 11 games has seen an elite 113 targets, which he has leveraged into 78-750-3 receiving.
  • This year the Cardinals have resorted to playing LB/S Isaiah Simmons in the slot — often against living, breathing NFL wide receivers — and he has allowed a career-high 85.5% catch rate.

Godwin Update (Fri. 12/23): The Cardinals could be without CBs Byron Murphy (back) and Antonio Hamilton (back), both of whom missed Week 15 and then practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Godwin is a low-end WR1.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) vs. JAX: Jets -1 | 37.5 O/U

  • Starter-turned-backup QB Zach Wilson is likely to play on Thursday Night Football in place of QB Mike White (ribs), who missed Week 15.
  • G. Wilson has stark splits with Z. Wilson (7.2 FPPG, six targets) vs. without him (16.2, 10.3) — but he did have an encouraging 4-98-0 receiving on nine targets last week.
  • Wilson could see extra targets without WRs Corey Davis (concussion) and Denzel Mims (concussion), both of whom are uncertain for this week.
  • The Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (25.0%).

DeVonta Smith (PHI) at DAL: Eagles +5.5 | 46 O/U

  • QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is uncertain for Week 16, and if he’s out the Eagles could have more of a pass-heavy offense in an attempt to play to backup Gardner Minshew’s relative strength.
  • Since the Week 7 bye, Smith has eight-plus targets in seven of eight games, and over the past month he has 19-342-2 receiving on 33 targets.
  • The Cowboys are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (25.0%) and are without starting CBs Jourdan Lewis (foot, IR) and Anthony Brown (Achilles, IR).

Smith Update (Fri. 12/23): Hurts is out, so Minshew will start for the Eagles. Smith is on the WR2/3 borderline.

Mike Evans (TB) at ARI: Buccaneers -6.5 | 41 O/U

  • Evans hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, but with 888 yards he’s still on pace for a record ninth straight 1,000-yard receiving campaign to open his career.
  • Since the Week 11 bye, Evans has nine-plus targets in three of four games.
  • The Cardinals could be without No. 1 CB Byron Murphy (back), who has been out since Week 10 — and they also might be without CBs Marco Wilson (neck) and Antonio Hamilton (back), both of whom missed last week.

Evans Update (Fri. 12/23): Murphy and Hamilton both seem unlikely to play after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Evans is a mid-range WR2.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN) vs. LAR: Broncos -2.5 | 36.5 O/U

  • In his two games since WR Courtland Sutton (hamstring) exited Week 13 early, Jeudy has 15-149-3 receiving on 17 targets, and Sutton is uncertain to return this week.
  • Even with No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (23.0%).

Jeudy Update (Fri. 12/23): Sutton seems likely to play after getting in limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday, but No. 3 WR Kendall Hinton (hamstring) missed both sessions and will probably sit. Jeudy is a low-end WR2.

D.J. Moore (CAR) vs. DET: Panthers +2.5 | 44 O/U

  • Even with his zero-reception “performance” in Week 14, Moore has 182 yards and two touchdowns on 15 targets and two carries in his three games this year with QB Sam Darnold.
  • In 12 games with Darnold last year, Moore averaged a near-elite 9.8 targets, which he leveraged into 70.7 yards per game.
  • Moore leads all wide receivers with a 96% snap rate (per our Snap Count Leaders Report).
  • The Lions are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.7 FPPG).

Moore Update (Fri. 12/23): The Lions are without S DeShon Elliott (shoulder). Moore is an upside WR2.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs. LV: Steelers -3 | 39.5 O/U

  • The production has underwhelmed (770 yards, zero touchdowns from scrimmage), but Johnson has 123 targets (plus seven carries) this year and 9.7 targets per game since 2020.
  • The Raiders are Nos. 29 & 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.153) and pass DVOA (24.8%).

Johnson Update (Fri. 12/23): Johnson (toe) sat out practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but he expects to play this weekend. Johnson is a high-end WR3.

Darius Slayton (NYG) at MIN: Giants +3.5 | 48 O/U

  • In his four games since WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11, Slayton leads the Giants in targets (24) and yards receiving (218).
  • The Vikings are No. 26 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (14.0%).

Chris Moore (HOU) vs. TEN: Texans +5 | 37 O/U

  • In the absence of Nos. 1-2 WRs Brandin Cooks (calf) and Nico Collins (foot), Moore has 14-166-0 receiving on 20 targets over his past two games, and he has a dynamic 8.6 yards per target throughout his two years with the Texans.
  • Both Cooks and Collins are uncertain for Week 16 given that Collins didn’t practice at all last week and Cooks has displayed a strong desire not to play for the team any longer.
  • The Titans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (34.4 FPPG).
  • For the Titans, CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR) and Elijah Molden (groin, IR) and S Lonnie Johnson (hamstring, IR) are out, and CBs Kristian Fulton (groin), Tre Avery (concussion) and Terrence Mitchell (hamstring) and S Amani Hooker (knee) missed part or all of last week.

Moore Update (Fri. 12/23): Fulton and Mitchell are out for the Titans, and Collins is also out, but Cooks (questionable) is — against all odds — slated to play after practicing fully on Wednesday and Thursday. With the return of Cooks, Moore is a high-risk WR4.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC) vs. SEA: Chiefs -9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • The archetype of a boom/bust receiver, Valdes-Scantling has exhibited significant splits in his career games with a touchdown (17.0 FPPG, 86.4 receiving yards) and without (3.8, 28.4).
  • This is the one time this year I’ll highlight Valdes-Scantling as someone with an elevated chance of going off.
  • The Seahawks are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (35.4%).

Demarcus Robinson (BAL) vs. ATL: Ravens -7.5 | 37.5 O/U

  • Since the Week 10 bye, Robinson is No. 1 on the Ravens in receptions (28) and yards receiving (267) and No. 2 in targets (33), behind only TE Mark Andrews (35).
  • “Now, you take this home, throw it in a pot, add some broth, a potato — baby, you got a stew going.”
  • The Falcons are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.7%).

Robinson Update (Fri. 12/23): QB Lamar Jackson (knee) is out, so Robinson is now nothing more than a deep and desperate flex flyer.

Jahan Dotson (WAS) at SF: Commanders +7 | 39.5 O/U

  • Dotson did little in his first few games back from injury (30 yards, three targets, one carry in Weeks 10-12), but in his two games since then he has gone off with 9-159-2 receiving on 15 targets.
  • The 49ers are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (28.5%).

Marquise Goodwin (SEA) at KC: Seahawks +9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • WR Tyler Lockett (finger) is likely to miss Week 16, and in his stead Goodwin should serve as the No. 2 option in the passing game.
  • In his three games this year with a touchdown, Goodwin has 16.4 FPPG; in his 16 career games with a touchdown, 15.5 FPPG — when Godwin finds the end zone he tends to go off.
  • The Chiefs are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (30.3 FPPG).
  • If you’re looking for a Hail Mary, Goodwin might be your prayer.

Goodwin Update (Fri. 12/23): Lockett is out, but Marquise Goodwin (wrist, ankle) is genuinely questionable after missing practice on Thursday. If he suits up, Goodwin will be on the WR3/4 borderline.

Richie James (NYG) at MIN: Giants +3.5 | 48 O/U

  • Since slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11, James has an unsexy-but-functional 22-212-3 receiving on 26 targets in five games.
  • The Vikings are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.1 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 Tight Ends

Travis Kelce (KC) vs. SEA: Chiefs -9.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 16.6 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (10.3): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous.
  • Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 127 targets, 28 red-zone targets, and 47, 16 and six receptions of 10-, 20- and 30-plus yards yards (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
  • The Seahawks are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (14.8 FPPG).
  • This is the unstoppable force meeting the movable object.

Kelce Update (Fri. 12/23): S Ryan Neal (knee) is out for the Seahawks. Kelce is inevitable.

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. NYG: Vikings -3.5 | 48 O/U

  • Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, Hockenson is No. 2 on the team in targets (57), receptions (39) and yards receiving (335).
  • The Giants are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (35.8%) and missing S Xavier McKinney (hand, IR).

Gerald Everett (LAC) at IND: Chargers -4 | 46.5 O/U

  • Even with the return of No. 2 WR Mike Williams in Week 14, Everett over his past two games has totaled 14 targets, which he has leveraged into a livable 9-70-0 receiving.
  • The Colts are No. 26 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (13.9%).

Taysom Hill (NO) at CLE: Saints +2.5 | 32 O/U

  • Hill isn’t a traditional tight end — he has just 102 routes and 11 targets, which he has converted into 6-64-2 receiving (per PFF) — but he gets regular usage as a wildcat quarterback, and as such he is 11-of-17 for 216-2-0 passing with 56-333-3 rushing.
  • Hill has converted his five carries and three targets inside the 10-yard line into four touchdowns this year (per our Red Zone Stats Report).
  • With a forecast of 7 degrees Fahrenheit and 25-mph winds, this game could be a ground-based contest, and Hill could see extra usage as the designated point man in the Saints rushing attack.

Hill Update (Fri. 12/23): The Saints are without WRs Chris Olave (hamstring) and Jarvis Landry (ankle). They have every reason to lean on the running game, and that could mean more usage for Hill, who’s a sneaking-up-the-ranks TE1.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) vs. HOU: Titans -5 | 37 O/U

  • Blessed with an elite combination of size (6’3″ and 238 pounds) and speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash), Okonkwo as a rookie has flashed electric playmaking ability (10.4 yards per target), and among all qualified tight ends he’s No. 1 in the league with 2.63 yards per route.
  • Okonkwo leads all tight ends with three receptions of 40-plus yards and has 30-plus yards in seven straight games.
  • No. 1 WR Treylon Burks (concussion) is uncertain to play after exiting Week 13 early and missing Weeks 14-15, and Okonkwo could see extra targets in his absence.
  • Okonkwo is one of our top Week 16 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Okonkwo Update (Fri. 12/23): QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is out and Burks (questionable) should play after practicing fully this week, so I’ve downgraded Okonkwo. He still has the upside of efficiency, but he’s likely to play fewer snaps because of Burks, and the entire Titans pass offense will suffer with backup Malik Willis throwing passes. Okonkwo is an upside TE2.

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Matthew Freedman

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Matt is the Director of Content for FantasyPros & BettingPros. He's a five-time top-16 fantasy football ranker and a +EV sports bettor.

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