Dallas Cowboys
WR Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks saw a reduced role in the Texans’ offense this past season, but he still has plenty in the tank. The soon-to-be 30-year-old earned a 22% target share in 2022 (6.7 targets per game). After re-entering the lineup in Week 16 for Houston, Cooks finished the year as WR18 in points per game. He also averaged 1.64 yards per route run (39th), which was superior to anyone on Dallas last season not-named CeeDee Lamb (Brown, 70th). The former first-rounder is a great fit in Dallas but be warned that a heavy-run approach will make Cooks extremely boom-or-bust for fantasy purposes. He finished 9th in the percentage of catches for 20-plus yards (23%) and as PFF’s 7th-highest graded WR on targets 20-plus air yards – highlighting his big-play ability. Michael Gallup caught only one of his 11 deep targets last season.
TE Jake Ferguson
Rookie tight end and Cowboys 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker is already dealing with an injury, something that he also dealt with toward the later part of his collegiate career. Any delay by the rookie could create an opportunity for second-year tight end and former 4th-rounder, Jake Ferguson, to get a head start on TE1 duties in Dallas. Last season, Ferguson averaged 4.5 targets per game in two games played with Dalton Schultz sidelined. He ran the most TE routes in those contests, with Week 6 featuring him strictly as a receiver (zero pass-blocking snaps). All in all, he was extremely efficient posting a 86.4% catch rate (4th) while ranking 10th in PFF receiving grade and 9th in yards per route run. His extremely low ADOT at 3.1 suggests that he’s a prime candidate for dump-off passes from Dak Prescott. The TE role in Dallas is really what’s most appealing for fantasy purposes, as we have seen a below-average real-life tight end in Dalton Schultz thrive as Big D’s No. 1 tight end over the past few seasons.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Malik Davis
As PFF’s 4th-highest graded rookie running back last season (80.6), Malik Davis could see an expanded role as the No. 2 RB behind Tony Pollard. His main competition for backup duties includes NFL journeymen Ronald Jones (suspended for the first two games of the season), Rico Dowdle and rookie Deuce Vaughn.
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Denver Broncos
RB Samaje Perine
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine – 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed – after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans). With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I’d suspect that Perine (RB35 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals’ offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams’ workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets.
The Broncos also have a very favorable schedule to start the year with back-to-back home games versus the Raiders and Commanders.
TE Greg Dulcich
In 10 games, Greg Dulcich averaged 7 points per game (18th at the position). He was used as a downfield threat with a top-5 air yard share among tight ends (23%) averaging 1.3 deep targets per game. Dulcich proved he could earn volume with four games of 8-plus targets and a solid 18% target share. He’s a strong candidate to make a leap into Year 2. He ranked sixth in total routes run (31.6 per game) from Weeks 6-16. His per-game route total also ranked sixth versus all other tight ends. Perfect late-round tight end target outside the top-125 picks (TE12 ADP).
Deep Sleepers:
WR Marvin Mims
Marvin Mims was an elite producer at the collegiate level, hanging a 23 percent dominator rating in three years as an Oklahoma Sooner. He burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old freshman with a 24 percent dominator rating, triggering an early-age breakout. Mims led the team with 37 catches for 610 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. He also finished fifth in the nation in yards per route run (4.07) and seventh in PFF receiving grade (89.1). The 5-foot-11 and 183-pound wide receiver would cap off his college career strong with over 1,000 receiving yards as a junior, averaging 20 yards per reception for the second straight season. Mims was a fiend with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his class in yards after the catch per reception (8.1) despite a high average depth of target (17.0).
It’s rare to find a wide receiver like Mims who can make plays after the catch and win downfield. Mims finished third in the FBS in receiving yards and fifth in targets on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2022. He also offers ability as a punt returner. The one concern about his production profile is that the majority of it came against zone coverage looks. He only caught nine passes in man coverage. But in today’s NFL, the WRs that can find the soft spots in zone coverage tend to turn into PPR monsters.
His 2023 NFL Scouting Combine showing cemented his status for me inside my upper echelon of this year’s crop of rookie WRs. The Oklahoma Sooner ran a 4.38 40-yard dash (90th percentile), jumped a 39.5-inch vertical (89th percentile), leaped 129 inches in the broad jump (89th percentile), and posted a 6.9 3-cone drill (72nd percentile). His impressive testing, early-age production, deep-threat prowess, and ability to win after the catch are all reasons to be “in” on Mims for fantasy football. The dude just turned 21 years old yet.
Mims was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the second round (63rd overall) in the 2023 NFL Draft, solidifying his status for me as the clear-cut No. 5 WR in the draft class behind the four 1st-rounders.
He was the first overall pick for the Broncos in the newly established Sean Payton era. They traded UP to get him, despite not having that many picks to work with. Mims can fill the much-needed deep-threat role vacated by recently released, K.J. Hamler. The perfect deep target.
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Detroit Lions
WR Jameson Williams
As a rookie, Jameson Williams remained buried on the Lions’ depth chart as the WR5 but he will undoubtedly be a starter when he hits the field in 2023 with D.J. Chark leaving town for the Panthers this offseason. The Lions also have no tight end of consequence on their roster and journeymen Josh Reynolds/veteran Marvin Jones duking it out for No. 3 wide receiver duties. Chark led the team in air yard share (30%) and in total deep targets (15) when healthy in 2022. We should see Williams take over that role which also produced 61 receiving yards per game from Weeks 13-17.
And although Williams was extremely limited in 2022 with just 34 routes run, the former 12th overall draft pick was hyper-targeted when on the field with a 26% target rate per route run to go along with the league’s 6th-highest average depth of target. And better yet, his six-game suspension to open the year makes him that much more attainable.
Recall at Alabama, Williams commanded a 31% dominator rating by hanging 1,561 receiving yards, 20 yards/reception and 15 TDs. All achievements ranked top-three among his 2022 NFL Draft class and earned him draft capital as the 12th overall pick. The Lions traded UP 20 spots to select him. Remember, how your fantasy football team performs at the end of the year is more important than the start. I want high-upside players on my bench. That’s Jamo as the WR48 in ADP. The WR49 in ADP last season you ask? Garrett Wilson.
Mic. drop.
Deep Sleepers:
TE Sam LaPorta, WR Kalif Raymond
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is a YAC monster and is competing with Brock Wright and James Mitchell for playing time. I think he is a sure bet to be the team’s starting tight end from Day 1. And he will have ample opportunities to produce from the get-go due to the Jameson Williams six-game suspension. Keep in mind, being a Lions TE was extremely profitable for fantasy purposes last year. Their tight ends combined for six top-12 weekly finishes. Expect Sammy Ball to ball out. He was Iowa’s featured weapon for three straight seasons, leading the Hawkeyes in receptions each year.
Oh, baby. Another WR sleeper with punt returner ability from Worcester, Massachusetts. Raymond, 29 in August, has been in the NFL since the 2016 season after going undrafted out of Holy Cross. Starting out strictly on special teams, Raymond finally started earning reps at WR upon joining the Detroit Lions in 2021. Over the last two seasons, Raymond has finished as a top-60 fantasy WR. He ended the 2022 season ranking 23rd in yards per route run and 11th in catch rate. He’s an underrated piece of this ascending Lions offense, and he will no doubt have a pristine opportunity to earn targets early on with Jameson Williams sidelined for the first six weeks of the season. Raymond is elusive, which is shown through his work as a special team return man. His 13.2 yards per punt return ranked third in the NFL last season.
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Green Bay Packers
QB Jordan Love
Jordan Love is slated to start for the Green Bay Packers in 2023 after sitting on the bench behind a future HOFer, Aaron Rodgers, for the past three seasons. Love was viewed as a raw prospect – a poor man’s Patrick Mahomes because of his traits and ability to make off-script plays – who needed time to marinate entering the league, so I am cautiously optimistic about his prospects this season and beyond. He played well in limited action in 2022 and possesses athletic traits that could translate to rushing production. Green Bay added a plethora of weapons to aid in Love’s first season in the 2023 NFL Draft between Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. The Packers also have a very favorable schedule to open the 2023 season and the No.1 easiest strength of schedule for fantasy QBs per FantasyPros’ strength of schedule tool.
Through seven games, they will face Atlanta, New Orleans, Detroit, Las Vegas, Denver, Minnesota and the Rams. Therefore, Love has the chance to surprise in fantasy circles early on, even if he’s just an average quarterback in real life.
WR Jayden Reed
Jayden Reed checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. He also caught eight receiving TDs on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2021, which trailed only A.T. Perry and Jordan Addison in the nation. Reed also returned kicks at both Western Michigan and Michigan State, further bolstering his sleeper status. In 2018 as a true freshman, Reed was PFF’s 4th-highest graded punt returner in the nation. In 2021, he led the FBS in yards per punt return (19.8).
Reed has been constantly praised during the start of Packers training camp showcasing his speed and versatility. Can’t say I am surprised based on his college profile.
Deep Sleepers:
TE Tucker Kraft
It could easily be Luke Musgrave that emerges as the Packers leading rookie tight end, but my money is on Tucker Kraft to be that guy. He broke out in 2021 but missed time with an injury in 2022. He’s still super young at just 22 years old, and he went to the same school as Dallas Goedert. In 2021, Kraft finished 11th in PFF receiving grade and fourth in receptions to earn a 21% dominator rating – a top-5 single-season mark in the class.
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Houston Texans
WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins owns an ADP outside the top 50 WRs. His price is ridiculously cheap, considering his main competitors for targets include Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Robert Woods, Tank Dell and Noah Brown. Collins led the 2022 Texans in air yards share and in target rate per route run (23%). He also finished 20th in expected yards per route run (1.94). With a quarterback upgrade coming in the form of C.J. Stroud, you need to be all over the Texans No. 1 discounted big-bodied wide receiver.
WR John Metchie III
If for some reason it’s not Nico Collins that fires, I think it could easily be the second-year pro, John Metchie III, that emerges from the Houston WR room. He’s a former second-round pick from 2022, that the Texans traded up for (44th overall). But he, unfortunately, missed his entire rookie year battling leukemia. But he’s full-go for training camp and set to make some noise in an exploitable WR depth chart.
During his final junior year at Alabama, Metchie caught 96 balls for over 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. It’s was a long-time coming for Metchie because playing alongside future first-round picks Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Henry Ruggs made it nearly impossible for him to get playing time.
All eyes were on Metchie when Smith and Waddle would move on to the NFL – and for the most part – Metchie delivered. He led Bama with a 20% target share in 13 games played before his injury. He just happened to be overshadowed by Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams.
Still, Metchie has a nice skill set that will translate well into the NFL. He’s a savvy route runner that understands how to get leverage and create separation from defenders. He can create yards after the catch. His game reminds me of Eddie Royal – who just happened to have his best NFL season while playing under Mike Shanahan. The Texans project to be a Shanahan-style, YAC-heavy offense based on their new offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, stemming from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree.
Metchie probably won’t ever be a true No. 1, but being a rock-solid No. 2 or slot option is very much in his range of outcomes.
RB Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary joins the Houston Texans on a one-year deal worth $3.75 million, where he is expected to back up the team’s lead rusher, Dameon Pierce. Singletary’s 2022 season with the Buffalo Bills was productive as he operated as the 1A in the team’s backfield, finishing as the RB23 overall and RB27 in points per game. However, he shared touches with rookie James Cook, leading to a full-blown committee situation. Cook matched Singletary point-for-point and averaged a 40% snap share over the final seven games. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than Cook from Weeks 13-20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). While Singletary’s strong finish over the last two seasons won’t help his case to become Houston’s lead rusher, he is a credible threat to Pierce’s workload compared to the other available options on the team. Singletary’s PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) could also secure his usage on passing downs, where Pierce struggled as a rookie (32.3, 52nd) in that capacity. Still, Pierce’s potential to be a three-down back is higher as Singletary hasn’t thrived as a receiver.
Overall, Singletary’s role in Houston’s backfield is ambiguous, but he brings quality depth and veteran experience to the team. With a history of being productive in committee situations, he could become a valuable fantasy asset if Pierce suffers an injury or if the team decides to operate more in a committee fashion. Singletary already thinks that is going to be the case, stating that he and Pierce will be a solid one-two punch. He also said it’s been shown in this offense that more than one guy can eat. Considering the lack of reliable targets among the team’s hodgepodge WRs (Nico Collins withstanding), don’t be shocked if Singletary posts solid reception numbers yet again. He’s caught at least 43 balls and earned at least 53 targets over the past three seasons. He has also never played fewer than 57% of his team’s offensive snaps over his four-year career.
I’d also be hard-pressed to not bring up the record of running backs in the Shanahan/49ers system with former 49ers staffer Bobby Slowik taking over as the Texans offensive coordinator. You never want to draft the first guy based on ADP.
We saw something similar play out in Miami last offseason, with Shanahan disciple Mike McDaniel casting off Chase Edmonds as the first Dolphins RB drafted in fantasy.
TE Dalton Schultz
Over the past two seasons, Dalton Schultz ranks 6th in points per game, 7th in target share (17%), 15th in target rate per route run (21%), fourth in receptions, 10th in yards per route run and 6th in route participation, despite facing FIERCE target competition in Dallas.
With Dak Prescott under center (31 games played) Schultz was averaging nearly 13 fantasy points per game in PPR (12.87). That would have ranked second among all TEs in 2022. Nearly top-12 WR fantasy-like numbers.
In 2021, Schultz scored nearly as many fantasy points per game as CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper with Prescott at QB. In 2022, he posted a 24.4% target rate per route run, which would have ranked sixth.
Nobody would be shocked if Schultz were to emerge as the Texans’ target leader in 2023. Therefore, he’s a value as the TE11 going outside the top-10 rounds.
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Indianapolis Colts
QB Anthony Richardson
The Colts rookie quarterback is my best bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and to break out in Year 1. The former Gator brings an exceptional level of athleticism to the table, and with the right coaching staff, his sky-high potential can be fully realized. He has already secured the Day 1 starting position. Even if the Colts don’t have a strong real-life record, Richardson’s rushing production and off-script playmaking will put him over the top. At Florida, Richardson averaged 60 rushing yards per game. Also, Richardson’s extremely low pressure-to-sack rate (sub-10%, first in the 2023 QB Class) further highlights his off-script playmaking. With passers being pushed up the board more aggressively than in recent years, Richardson as the QB15 gives late-round QB drafters a chance to compete.
It’s this exact rushing that will give Richardson a high floor in fantasy, with an improvement as a passer taking him to the next level. Because if you just look back at first-round rookie QBs that offered value with their legs, their production matched that of a low-end fantasy QB1.
The points per game marks ranged between 17–19-point averages which has been the QB15-QB10 range over the past two seasons. That’s considering the rookie years of Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Of course, only by factoring the games, they were the featured/starting QB.
At any price outside the top-15 QBs, Richardson is a no-brainer selection. Especially in 1QB formats.
WR Alec Pierce
The emergence of second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce adds another layer of uncertainty to Michael Pittman’s role. Pierce, known for his deep-threat abilities, could potentially put up similar production or even share spike weeks with Pittman as a better “fit” with his rookie QB. Nine of Richardson’s 17 TDs came on 20-plus air-yard throws last season. His average depth of target (11.5) ranked fifth highest in his draft class in 2022. And new head coach Shane Steichen is no stranger to dialing up the deep ball. In his past stints running offenses with the Eagles and Chargers over the past three seasons, those teams all ranked inside the top-10 in total passing attempts of 20-plus air yards.
With a much lower ADP than Pittman, Pierce represents a value option for fantasy managers and raises questions about Pittman’s ability to be the sole standout in the Colts’ receiving corps. Pierce finished 10th in yards per reception (14.5) and first in the percentage of routes run aligned on the perimeter (93.2%). The sophomore WR is dialed into a starting role on the outside opposite Pittman, with all the other Colts WRs duking it out for slot duties. Parris Campbell as last year’s No. 2 WR, ranked 23rd in routes run per game.
Pierce’s ADP is WR66. He ranked 42nd in routes run last season among all WRs.
Deep Sleepers:
TE Jelani Woods
Over the final six weeks of the 2022 season, Colts rookie tight end Jelani Woods ranked second in yards per route run among all tight ends. With top-tier athletism and whispers that he is the favorite to take over the Dallas Goedert role in Shane Steichen’s new-look offense in Indianapolis, Woods is a great late-round tight end to target.
Just note that Woods is been dealing with a leg injury that has hampered/limited him throughout the start of training camp. He was placed on IR which hurts his short-term appeal.
RB Evan Hull
Evan Hull was a draft-day steal for the Colts on Day 3. The Northwestern product spent the past two seasons owning his team’s backfield as a mega-producer posting back-to-back seasons with a 35% dominator rating. The 5-foot-10 and 209-pound back hauled in 87 passes for 800 receiving yards as a full-blown three-down back while forcing over 100 missed tackles.
With a decorated production profile and desirable athleticism – 78th percentile or better tester in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and 3-cone drill – Hull rising the ranks in Indy’s backfield should surprise nobody. He led all FBS running backs in receptions and receiving yards in 2022. Hard to not view him as the favorite for the No. 2 spot with Zack Moss sidelined due to a broken arm.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Zay Jones
Understandably, the shine on Zay Jones‘ 2022 season has dimmed since the team added Calvin Ridley during the offseason. But we cannot overstate how effective Jones was in his first year in the offense. Jones played a nearly full-time role running a route on 87% of dropbacks (37.1 per game, 14th, same as Christian Kirk). He ended the year as the WR24 while posting career highs across the board in receptions (82), yards (823) and yards per route run (1.44). But what was most impressive, was Jones’ 27% top-12 finisher rate, which ranked 16th-best among all WRs. His four top-12 finishes were the same amount that Christian Kirk tallied. Even if Jones takes a small step back in terms of targets with the addition of Ridley, I don’t envision his actual playing time decreasing too drastically. Remember, the Jaguars had three WRs last season running a route on at least 73% of the dropbacks (30-plus per game). Jacksonville was just one of three teams that saw four different players earn 80-plus targets (Vikings, Chargers). The Jaguars also join Minnesota and San Franciso as offenses to feature at least 3 players with a 17% target share.
Marvin Jones‘ departure also vacates 22 targets of 20-plus air yards. There are still plenty of opportunities to go around in this Jaguars’ ascending offense, and Jones represents the cheapest access point. If an injury were to strike either Ridley or Kirk, Jones will no doubt enter the top-24 weekly WR conversation.
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Kansas City Chiefs
WR Skyy Moore
A lackluster rookie season has everybody writing off 2022 second-round WR Skyy Moore. But the young WR showed bright spots as the season progressed. After JuJu Smith-Schuster got hurt in Week 10, Moore went on to lead all Chiefs WRs in targets over the next two weeks (12 targets, 10 catches for 99 yards, 3.19 yards per route run) as the team’s primary slot receiver. Moore was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes (25% snap share, 4 targets) in Week 17 vs. the Broncos when, again, he saw high usage from the inside. And in the conference championship game, Moore once again commanded 6 targets, while running 12 routes from the slot (second-most in 2022).
Many draft pundits and Chiefs beat writers are crowning Kadarius Toney as the heir to the KC WR1 chair (if and when he gets healthy) but Moore looks like the dark horse to earn starting slot duties that Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left behind. Simply put, Moore saw 6 targets in the games where he ran at least 10 slot routes. He also had at least 2 receptions in five games where he ran at least 7 slot routes. Hardman and Smith-Schuster averaged 13.5 slot routes per game last season. Therefore, don’t count Moore out quite yet. Recall, Moore ranked second in college football in his final year in yards per route run from the slot.
Moore has been used as a clear-cut starter during the preseason, playing the majority of his snaps with the first-team offense from the slot.
Deep Sleepers:
WR Richie James Jr.
The former Giants’ slot WR was thrown back into the starting role in Week 12 after rookie Wan’Dale Robinson went down with a torn ACL. From Weeks 12-17, James led New York with a 22.4% target share averaging 11.3 fantasy points, 5.6 receptions and 55 receiving yards per game (WR16 overall). James tied a bow on the year with the league’s highest catch rate (82.9%). Coming off a career year, James was a sneaky addition to the Chiefs as they try to improve their passing game over the middle of the field.
WR Justyn Ross
The former Clemson superstar has been a standout at Kansas City Chiefs training camp after signing on with them as as UDFA in 2022.
At 18 years old, Ross led the Clemson Tigers in receiving yards despite playing alongside older teammates Tee Higgins, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfrow, who were future pros. He was PFF’s second-highest-graded WR in his first season (91.2).
The 6-foot-4 and 205-pound wideout followed up with an impressive sophomore campaign, leading the team in receptions (66) as Trevor Lawrence’s most heavily targeted receiver.
Ross was well on his way to being a locked-and-loaded Round 1 selection for the 2021 NFL Draft, but the aforementioned rare condition affecting his neck and spine forced him to miss the entire 2020 season.
He came back in 2021 to show that he was fully healthy, but an anemic Clemson offense that ranked 87th in PFF’s grading torpedoed his numbers. Only 64% of his targets were deemed catchable, which ranked in the 28th percentile.
If he can stay healthy and recaptures his playmaking ability with Patrick Mahomes at the helm — watch out. He’s getting more involved with the first-team and has the talent to be a true difference-maker. He also cracked the 53-man roster.
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