It’s difficult to quantify the exact impact of players in Week 15 of fantasy football. Many leagues are in the first round of the playoffs, so the impact is only felt on remaining teams that have playoff matchups. Some leagues are in the last week of the regular season in preparation for a three-week playoff from Weeks 16-18. Some leagues are gearing up for a two-week playoff from Weeks 16-17. Some teams are on bye.
If you had Christian McCaffrey this year, you very likely had a first-round playoff bye. But even if you didn’t have an official bye, he made it, so you may as well have.
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
I go over the FGW statistics in Week 8’s article. For a deeper dive, check out my blog. TL;DR: 0.15 = 15% increase in your chances of winning a fantasy matchup.
Deus Ex McCaffrey
Each season, I go back and award a Season MVP, Playoff MVP, Least Valuable Player, and so on, based on accumulated Fantasy Games Won scores. I’m not teasing anyone this year by waiting — if you’ve been following along, you know that CMC just blew past Tyreek in the last two weeks.
The Fantasy MVP race is nothing like the NFL MVP race when it comes to certainty.
As good as McCaffrey’s 2023 has been so far, Week 15 still stands out. It was his second-best week of the year after Week 4 (when we scored 45.2 half-PPR points). Depending on how you measure it, CMC increased your chances of winning each week by between 16% (compared to the average fantasy RB starter) and 9% (compared to what you can expect from a third overall pick). That means CMC in Week 15 was three to four times as valuable to your fantasy team as you’d normally expect him to be.
Christian McCaffrey gave your team some love in week 15. Let’s give some love to the rest of the Week 15 winners.
Who Won The Week?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 39.2 | 100% | 0.43 |
| 2 | Sam LaPorta | TE | 26.1 | 88% | 0.30 |
| 3 | James Cook | RB | 35.1 | 72% | 0.28 |
| 4 | Miami | DEF | 24.0 | 85% | 0.28 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 24.2 | 87% | 0.22 |
| 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 23.8 | 92% | 0.21 |
| 7 | Kyren Williams | RB | 22.0 | 99% | 0.19 |
| 8 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 20.7 | 97% | 0.18 |
| 9 | Cooper Kupp | WR | 21.1 | 91% | 0.18 |
| 10 | David Njoku | TE | 21.4 | 65% | 0.17 |
| 11 | Deebo Samuel | WR | 19.9 | 95% | 0.16 |
| 12 | Rachaad White | RB | 20.9 | 94% | 0.16 |
| 13 | Davante Adams | WR | 20.1 | 88% | 0.16 |
| 14 | Brock Purdy | QB | 29.7 | 69% | 0.13 |
| 15 | Amari Cooper | WR | 18.9 | 78% | 0.12 |
- It seems like every few weeks for the past few years, there has been a discussion online about whether Travis Kelce is still TE1 in dynasty. This was always an interesting topic because of Kelce’s simultaneous age (he’s 34) and his continued dominance compared to the rest of the position. Sam LaPorta is officially close enough to Kelce in performance that I think we’re seeing the end of those discussions. 22-year-old LaPorta is the new dynasty TE1.
- Apparently, It doesn’t matter that the Bills have longtime volume vulture Latavius Murray or that they signed Leonard Fournette on Halloween. James Cook is living up to his last name. It’s too bad that his percentage started was only at 72%. I get it, though.
- Is Kyren Williams a first-round pick in 2024? This feels like a situation where the Rams will sign another RB in the offseason “to spell Williams,” and it won’t be clear if Kyren will get the same volume next year. This is pure speculation on my part, but I think fantasy managers will be torn on him.
- The only player in the top 15 with a lower percentage started than James Cook is QB1 Brock Purdy. If he keeps playing like this, he’ll escape the shadow of his secret father.
Who Lost The Week?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Tyreek Hill | WR | 0.0 | 46% | -0.12 |
| 14 | De’Von Achane | RB | 7.7 | 97% | -0.12 |
| 13 | Garrett Wilson | WR | 4.4 | 76% | -0.13 |
| 12 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 3.1 | 67% | -0.13 |
| 11 | Tony Pollard | RB | 6.7 | 94% | -0.14 |
| 10 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 5.2 | 91% | -0.14 |
| 9 | Javonte Williams | RB | 3.0 | 69% | -0.15 |
| 8 | Austin Ekeler | RB | 5.8 | 94% | -0.15 |
| 7 | Najee Harris | RB | 1.3 | 63% | -0.16 |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 4.7 | 91% | -0.17 |
| 5 | Justin Fields | QB | 10.6 | 79% | -0.18 |
| 4 | Breece Hall | RB | 2.3 | 77% | -0.18 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | RB | 3.0 | 90% | -0.20 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | RB | -0.1 | 98% | -0.27 |
| 1 | Dak Prescott | QB | 6.1 | 90% | -0.27 |
- Tyreek did not play in Week 15. Despite this, his percentage started was at a huge 46%. I don’t recall an instance where an injured player had this high of a percent started number before. We’ve had players started by fantasy managers and just not play much, like Bijan Robinson in Week 7, but this is different. You have to figure at least two-thirds of Tyreek managers were still alive, and maybe one-third of those still alive were on bye or had already clinched a playoff spot for Week 16. Still, that leaves around 25% of Tyreek managers with him in their starting lineup and rolling with a zero in an important matchup.
- Speaking of Bijan, you would have been better off starting injured Tyreek Hill, as he had less than zero points. Today is officially the first day of winter in the northern hemisphere, but Bijan may not arrive until The Winds of Winter is released.
- Dak Prescott actually lost the week, not Bijan, beating him by 0.0006 FGW. Getting 6.1 points from a 90% starting QB is, indeed, that bad for your team. Dak dropped from 16th in the season-long FGW list all the way down to 29th. His fantasy managers meanwhile dropped from “alive” to “probably not alive.”
Week 15 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Las Vegas | DEF | 25.0 | 18% | 0.28 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | QB | 36.1 | 17% | 0.25 |
| 3 | Jordan Addison | WR | 26.1 | 28% | 0.21 |
| 4 | Baker Mayfield | QB | 33.0 | 21% | 0.20 |
| 5 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | K | 17.0 | 0% | 0.19 |
| 6 | Aidan O’Connell | QB | 29.9 | 1% | 0.19 |
| 7 | Chicago | DEF | 17.0 | 9% | 0.19 |
| 8 | Joshua Palmer | WR | 19.3 | 0% | 0.16 |
| 9 | Tre Tucker | WR | 19.2 | 0% | 0.16 |
| 10 | Hunter Henry | TE | 16.1 | 0% | 0.16 |
| 11 | Ty Chandler | RB | 23.2 | 28% | 0.15 |
| 12 | Chris Godwin | WR | 20.5 | 22% | 0.14 |
| 13 | Terry McLaurin | WR | 23.1 | 42% | 0.14 |
| 14 | Curtis Samuel | WR | 18.6 | 9% | 0.13 |
| 15 | Matt Prater | K | 14.0 | 0% | 0.13 |
*bFGW is the FGW total lost due to low percent started numbers. Essentially, points scored on fantasy benches or free-agent lists.
- Jared Goff with an interesting case of expert ranking arbitrage, perhaps? Sam LaPorta: 88% started. Jahmyr Gibbs: 92% started. Amon-Ra St. Brown: 97% started. David Montgomery: 79% started. Jared Goff: 17% started. Perhaps we could have seen this upside coming…
- Going to keep an eye on Aidan O’Connell’s percent started number next week. Some managers will be benching their “studs” for him.
- Speaking of studs, Ty Chandler. That’s my analysis. Ty Chandler.
Leaderboard Updates
Christian McCaffrey is getting his trophy room ready.
The perfect draft went something like: Pick CMC, pick CeeDee, and make sure to get Keenan Allen.
Najee’s trophy room might need an extra garbage can or two.
The perfectly awful draft went something like: Pick Chubb, pick Najee, and make sure you got Joe Burrow.
All Our Eggs are in One McCaffrey’s Food Market Basket
There’s a food store chain near where I grew up called McCaffrey’s. It’s a bit overpriced, but it is the only place to get certain items that you can’t find at Stop & Shop. A free pass to Week 16 in 2023 was one of those items.
Hopefully, you’re still in this thing. If so, good luck in Week 16. Either way, we’ll be back here next Wednesday.
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