NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Friday (12/29)

Fridays are always a premier day for the NBA, and that’s the case again here! We have 10 games to kickstart the weekend, and there are some brilliant matchups to break down. We have a ton to discuss for my final article of the week, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer:

Schedule and Odds

• NYK at ORL (ORL -1.5) O/U: 227
• BKN at WAS (BKN -6) O/U: 241.5
• SAC at ATL (ATL -1) O/U: 251
• TOR at BOS (BOS -9.5) O/U: 223
• MIL at CLE (MIL -5) O/U: 239.5
• PHI at HOU (HOU -1) O/U: 218.5
• OKC at DEN (DEN -3.5) O/U: 231
• CHA at PHX (PHX -14.5) O/U: 234
• SAS at POR (POR -5.5) O/U: 232.5
• MEM at LAC (LAC -6.5) O/U: 224.5

Check out our consensus game odds and the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros.

Injury Report

• Markelle Fultz (knee) OUT
• Mitchell Robinson (ankle) OUT
• Spencer Dinwiddie (rest) Probable
• Nic Claxton (ankle) Questionable
• De’Andre Hunter (knee) OUT
• Kristaps Porzingis (B2B) Questionable
• Al Horford (B2B) Questionable
• Jayson Tatum (B2B) Questionable
• Jaylen Brown (B2B) Questionable
• Donovan Mitchell (illness) Questionable
• Darius Garland (face) OUT
• Evan Mobley (knee) OUT
• Joel Embiid (ankle) OUT
• Jabari Smith (ankle) Questionable
• Aaron Gordon (dog) OUT
• LaMelo Ball (ankle) OUT
• Mark Williams (shoulder) Doubtful
• Bradley Beal (back) Questionable
• Deandre Ayton (knee) Questionable
• Kawhi Leonard (hip) Questionable

Core Plays

Tyrese Maxey (PG/SG – PHI): $9,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
We’ve had Maxey in here for the last two games Embiid has missed, and he’ll remain in it. He’s averaging a career-best 45 DraftKings points per game playing with the MVP, but that should be his floor without him. We say that because Maxey should be locked into 20-25 shots, 40 minutes, and a 30 percent usage rate with the big man out. We don’t mind the matchup with Houston either because Tyrese totaled 47 DK points in their most recent meeting.

Jamal Murray (PG – DEN): $7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Murray has always been one of the best point guards in the NBA when he’s healthy, which appears to be the case right now. Jamal has at least 40 DraftKings points in four straight fixtures, posting a 48-point average in that span. That makes it hard to believe that he’s still below $8,000 on DK, and we’re encouraged that he’ll be asked to do even more with Aaron Gordon out as well.

Anfernee Simons (PG/SG – POR): $8,400 DraftKings, $NA FanDuel
Simons missed a month earlier in the year, but he’s been fantastic since his return. Anfernee has scored at least 36 DraftKings points in nine of 10 games since returning, posting a 40-point average in that span. That’s likely to continue because Simons is averaging over 21 shots and 35 minutes as the primary playmaker in Portland. San Antonio is a sensational matchup, too, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing guards.

Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,200 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The Joker is in the section every day he suits up, and that’ll be the case as long as he’s playing at this level. The two-time MVP has established a 50-point floor, averaging over 60 DraftKings points per game. He’s been doing this for five years now and could be even better with Gordon out as well. Not to mention, Joker has at least 51 DK points in eight straight matchups with Oklahoma City!

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C – MIL): $11,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Giannis was slow to get going in his first month with Damian Lillard, but he’s playing like an MVP right now. Antetokounmpo has at least 61 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 15 games, flirting with a 70-point average in that span. Cleveland is usually a concerning matchup for most players, but we saw Giannis score 74 and 62 fantasy points in their two most recent meetings!

Kevin Durant (SF/PF – PHX): $10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Durant just had a career night on Wednesday, which shows how ridiculously he’s playing right now. The Slim Reaper has scored at least 36 DK points every game this year, amassing a season-high 74 DK points on Wednesday. This team needs him to keep playing like that with the way they’re struggling, and that should carry over well against a 29th-ranked Charlotte defense.

GPP Targets

Zach Collins (PF/C – SAS): $6,100 DraftKings, $NA FanDuel
It sounds like some San Antonio players will be rested in this back-to-back, which means ZC should start at center in a 30-minute role. He’s played at least 26 minutes in 31 games since the start of last season, posting a 35-point average in that expanded role. One of those gems was against this pitiful Portland defense, with Collins collecting 47 DK points in one of the best games of his career.

Day’Ron Sharpe (C – BKN): $5,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
If Nic Claxton has to sit again, Sharpe is one of the best plays out there. This guy started at center for him on Wednesday, but he’s been going off in limited minutes all year. Sharpe is averaging 21 DK points per game across just 16 minutes a night. We’d expect both totals to double if he starts, so his price tag should be closer to $7,000. The Wizards are the best matchup in the NBA, too, ranked last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.

Paul Reed (C – PHI): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Sharpe and Reed are valuable for the same reasons. We saw Reed start for Embiid on Wednesday, dropping 42 DK points across 32 minutes of play. Much like Sharpe, he’s been a per-minute stud throughout his career and needs a price bump if he’s going to play 30 minutes. Houston isn’t a horrible matchup because Alperen Sengun is one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA.

Value Plays

PJ Washington (PF/C – CHA): $7,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
I’ve always loved Washington as a player, but it’s frustrating that Charlotte doesn’t feel the same way. They’ve chosen to bring him off the bench for some reason, but he’s the primary playmaker for this second unit. That’s led to PJ scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. We didn’t mention that LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward are both nicked up, which should put even more on PJ’s plate.

Daniel Gafford (C – WAS): $6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
This wouldn’t be an article of mine if we omitted Gafford. I included DG in nearly every off-season article I wrote, and he’s finally providing the value we expected. Gafford is averaging 35 DraftKings points per game across his last 15 outings despite playing fewer than 30 minutes a night. It’s scary to think what he could do in a 35-minute role, and it’s not like Brooklyn’s 22nd-ranked defense worries us.

Dennis Smith Jr. (PG/SG – BKN): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Smith has been excellent in limited minutes this year, but they might have to give him more chances with how he’s been playing. DSJ had 36 DK points across 30 minutes of action in a spot start on Wednesday. We assume he’ll do that every time key players sit for the Nets, but we’ve seen Smith stuff the stat sheet whenever he’s given the opportunity. The icing on the cake is the matchup, with Washington possessing the worst defense in the NBA.

Advantageous Pricing

• Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,200 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C – MIL): $11,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
• Scottie Barnes (PG/SF – TOR): $8,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
• Caris LeVert (SG – CLE): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
• Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
• Tobias Harris (SF/PF – PHI): $6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
• Mo Bamba (C – PHI): $4,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC): $10,600 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel

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