Welcome to the Conference Championship of the NFL Playoffs, a jam-packed weekend of football for daily fantasy football enthusiasts, NFL sports bettors and those looking ahead to the 2024 best ball drafting season.
In this thrilling and final phase of the real NFL season. I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023-2024 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers and those looking to get on the wagering/pick action with the official 2023 fantasy football season in the books. Again, we often don’t cite Weeks 18 and on when we summarize the 2023 fantasy football season. But it’s doing an injustice to not take more information that these teams/players provide us as we set our sights on having an edge over our opponents in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Our focus has shifted from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” throughout the postseason. Expect direct DFS and PrizePicks advice for those looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
Don’t miss out on signing up for PrizePicks! Use our BettingPros PrizePicks Cheat Sheet and my promo code: PR-REQ653D for instant promo funds up to $25.
Now, let’s dive into the Conference Championship Fantasy Football Forecast. The final four teams remain for football supremacy.
Fantasy Football Forecast NFL Conference Championship Round
Baltimore Ravens
It was a difficult first half for the Baltimore Ravens offense.
Gus Edwards was held to just 21 rushing yards on 6 carries. He would finish with four more carries for 40 yards after the second half of the contest against the fierce Texans run defense.
Justice Hill took charge of the backfield, rushing 13 times for 66 yards. Newly signed Dalvin Cook even got some action later with Edwards getting worked on the sideline in the 2nd half due to a hand injury. John Harbaugh said post-game that he [Edwards] was okay.
Hill played 57% of the snaps, to Edwards’ 34% and Cook’s 13% (9 snaps). Hill/Edwards each saw 2 targets.
Edwards still had carries from inside the 3 and 19-yard line, while Hill also had 2 red-zone carries.
Lamar Jackson was everything an MVP player should be in this game. 4 total TDs and 100 rushing yards.
One TD he threw to Isaiah Likely after the duo narrowly missed on a score earlier in the game. Likely caught 2 of his 3 targets for 34 yards.
Zay Flowers led with 5 targets (23% target share), catching 4 balls for 41 yards. Rashod Bateman was efficient catching all 3 passes thrown his way for 39 yards. He played the second most WR snaps (64%) and ran a route on 21 of 29 dropbacks.
Nelson Agholor scored the other TD, catching 2 of his 4 targets. He played ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. (47% vs 29% snap shares). Beckham caught one pass for 12 yards while running just 8 routes.
Baltimore takes on KC in the AFC Championship at home.
For an early look at props on PrizePicks, I am leaning heavily toward the under on Lamar Jackson‘s passing yardage set at 212.5 passing yards. The Chiefs’ defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards the last two weeks. No QB their first team defense has faced in the last four weeks has gone for more than 200 yards through the air.
Conversely, I want to take the over on Jackson’s rushing yards prop set at 59.5 rushing yards. The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs came away with an upset win on the road in Buffalo during the Divisional Round.
Starting running back Isiah Pacheco rushed for nearly 100 yards (97) averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, long of 29 yards, while catching his lone target for 14 yards. He played 72% of the snaps.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 2 attempts, 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per attempt, long of 28 yards.
I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the MORE THAN his 63.5 rushing yards prop this weekend on Prizepicks. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three straight games and 60 or more in 6 of his last 8 games played.
The Ravens’ run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed 93 rushing yards per game to RBs at the fourth-highest yards per carry (4.7). 6 of the last 8 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.
Patrick Mahomes rushed 6 times for 19 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per attempt, a long of 24 yards. Mahomes completed 17 of 23 passes, 215 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, long of 32 yards, a passer rating of 131.6.
The Ravens’ first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they have faced. Lean toward the MORE THAN on Mahomes’ 244.5 passing yards prop this week on Prizepicks.
Target Shares from Week 20:
- Travis Kelce: 6 targets (29% of team pass attempts), 5 receptions, 75 yards, averaging 15.0 yards per reception, 2 touchdowns, long of 29 yards. 84% snap share.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 4 targets (19% target share), 2 receptions, 62 yards, averaging 31.0 yards per reception, long of 32 yards. Led the team with 68 air yards and finished 3rd in snaps among WRs (50%).
- Rashee Rice: 4 targets (19%), 4 receptions, 47 yards, averaging 11.8 yards per reception, long of 25 yards. Led the team in WR snaps played at 64%.
- Noah Gray: 3 targets (14%), 3 receptions, 16 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per reception, long of 12 yards.
- Mecole Hardman: 1 target (4.8%), 1 reception, 2 yards, long of 2 yards. Also rushed inside the goal-line and fumbled through the end zone for a touchback ruling. 5th in WR snaps (38%).
- Justin Watson: 1 target (5%), 0 receptions. 4th in WR snaps (44%).
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 1 target (5%), 1 reception, -1 yard.
The Chiefs will play the Baltimore Ravens on the road in the AFC Championship Games as 3-point road underdogs.
Don’t love a ton of props other than the MORE THAN on Rice’s 6.5 receptions. The Ravens rank second in the NFL in targets to WRs per game. 8 of the last 11 WRs have gone over their receptions prop versus Baltimore.
Rice has 6-plus catches in 6 of his last 9 games played, including 8-plus catches in 3 of his last 4 road games played.
San Franciso 49ers
Brock Purdy didn’t play a great game in the Divisional Round. He completed 23 of 39 passes for 252 yards and threw another pass that should have been easily intercepted in rainy conditions.
Luckily for him and the 49ers’ faithful, they made enough plays in the end to beat Green Bay en route to the NFC Championship game where they will face the Lions.
Detriot’s pass defense keeps on bleeding yards to QBs. The Lions have allowed an absurd number of passing yards over their last five games. Nearly 375 passing yards per game. Detroit has also allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last two months.
Purdy has at least 252 passing yards in every single game he has played at home this season.
Christian McCaffrey was constantly getting the massage gun treatment on the sidelines, but that didn’t affect his play. 17 carries for 98 yards and 2 rushing TDs for fantasy football’s MVP. He was also targeted a whopping 12 times (33% target share), catching 7 balls for 30 yards. This number is low, as Purdy missed him several times out of the backfield.
CMC also played all but one of the offensive snaps (98%). Kyle Shanahan is not holding him back. Jordan Mason/Elijah Mitchell were the only other RBs for the 49ers to play a snap on offense.
Deebo Samuel got hurt early in this game with a shoulder injury and didn’t play in the entire second half. This led to more Jauan Jennings usage. He caught 5 balls for 61 yards (6 targets, 16% target share) in a hybrid Deebo role. 62% snap share and 31 routes run. Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud also sprinkled in some offensive plays with Samuel of the lineup. 16 routes run each.
George Kittle was super-efficient, scoring on 4 catches for 81 yards (7 targets, 19% target share). He played 97% of the snaps.
Brandon Aiyuk made some critical plays but was unable to post strong overall receiving numbers with only 3 catches and 36 yards on 6 targets (17% target share).
He still played 100% of the snaps, and will likely be more involved if Samuel has to miss the next game. Considering it’s a pain tolerance injury that Samuel will have to rehab through, the 49ers’ offensive game plan will undoubtedly be more focused around their other core 3 players: CMC, Kittle and Aiyuk even if Samuel is playing a likely limited fashion. According to Adam Schefter, Samuel is 50/50 to play.
Even if he suits up, the 49ers’ game plan likely won’t be around getting Samuel heavily involved, thus boosting the projection of every other 49ers offensive playmaker.
They will host the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
Therefore, let’s pair Purdy with Brandon Aiyuk‘s receiving yards prop set at 71.5 receiving yards. Have to imagine a horrible Lions secondary is the BOOM spot for Aiyuk after a few down games. Aiyuk is the primary downfield and air yards threat for the 49ers offense. Regression is coming. The Lions rank 1st in air yards and second in ADOT faced this season. Aiyuk has 3 110-yard games in his last 6 while finishing with fewer than 40 yards in the other 3.
Also, when Kittle’s receiving props drop, another over is the move. Kittle EATS with no Samuel, potentially more than any other 49ers’ Big 3.
George Kittle's career splits with Brock Purdy + without Deebo Samuel (shoulder) including Sunday's first-drive exit.
In six full games:
* 24.6% target share
* 90.6 yards per game
* 25.7% TPRR
* 3.31 YPRR
* 20.1 fantasy points per start— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) January 22, 2024
Detroit Lions
The Lions won their second straight home playoff game versus the Buccaneers, winning 31-23 after a late TD from Tampa Bay made the game a one-score possession. Still, wasn’t enough for Baker Mayfield and company to overcome Detroit.
Jared Goff attempted 43 passes, completing 30 for 287 yards and 2 TD passes.
Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs ran wild for 74 yards on just 9 carries scoring a TD to go along with a long of 31 yards. He also caught all four of his targets for 40 yards.
David Montgomery rushed 10 times for 33 yards. He also drew 4 targets, catching 3 for 14 yards. Monty played 56% of the snaps, to Gibbs’ 36% snap share.
And somehow in a random occurrence, Craig Reynolds drew the TD from inside the 1-yard line. Woof.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had a “down” game, compiling just 77 yards on 8 catches and 14 targets (33% target share) with 1 TD score.
Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Even after the Sun God came up short in the yardage props last week, little doubt he won’t hit his receptions prop in this spot. He has 7-plus catches in 5 of his last 6 games. Take the MORE THAN 7.5 receptions for Amon-Ra this weekend on Prizepicks.
Sam LaPorta looked back to full strength another week removed from injury. 9 for 65 on a whopping 11 targets (26% target share). He should see plenty of work versus SF’s defense that faced 10 targets to Packers tight ends. However, note that the 49ers are stiff against volume to TEs. 4th in DVOA vs tight ends. On those 10 targets, Packers tight ends combined for 6 catches for 23 yards with 1 TD.
Jameson Williams was next with four targets and 78 air yards, although he played fewer snaps (78% vs 58%) than Josh Reynolds (3 targets, 1 TD). The second-year speedster continues to see up-and-down usage alongside Reynolds.
Still, he hit his receiving yards prop, and it’s low again at 30.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks. Going right back to the MORE THAN on this number, given Williams’ big-play ability.
He has 40 or more yards in 6 of his last 8 games played.
The Lions will play the 49ers on the road in the NFC Championship Games, as 7-point underdogs in a game with a total projected over 50 points.
The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 6 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 12 have hit the over on their completions prop. You are going to see more passing volume across the board for Goff, especially as road underdogs. Goff has gone for 257-plus yards in six straight games, with 270 or more in five of those contests.
The 49ers will be a much tougher defense to throw on than pass on. Aaron Jones was the first player in the last 51 games to rush for 100 yards against the 49ers run defense. Would expect their run defense to settle in after being gashed from big explosive rushes by Jones.
Before Jones’ performance, the 49ers had allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards to 7 of the last 8 RBs they faced. And the only “over” by James Conner, came on an explosive rush.
That plays more into the strengths of Jahmyr Gibbs, (3rd in the NFL in breakaway rate at 38%), versus Montgomery, who has one rush of 15 yards since Week 13 (last 8 games). One in his last 110 carries (5%).
Pound the LESS than on Montgomery’s 48.5 rushing yards,
But take the MORE THAN on Gibbs’ 43.5 rushing yards. He has at least 40 rushing yards in every single road game the Lions have played this season.
Or if you are concerned about the negative game script the Lions might face, opt for the MORE THAN on Gibbs’ total yardage (70.5) or on his receiving yards.
The last 6 of the last 10 RBs to face San Fran have gone over their receiving yards. Aaron Jones had 6 targets last week. The 49ers are also allowing the 8th-most yards (37), 6th-most targets (7) and 6th-most catches (5.3) to RBs this season.
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