Week 15 has a slate full of fun games for GPP tournaments. With so many teams playing, rostership will be spread out. A lot of the good games are in the afternoon slate, so don’t lean too heavily into the early ones or you might find your leads slowly trickling away in the afternoon.
These are the best DFS GPP plays for Week 15 and how you can stack or correlate them to win big.
Week 15 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 15.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) vs. Dolphins | DraftKings: $6,200/FanDuel: $7,400
There haven’t been too many occasions this year where it felt like a good idea to play C.J. Stroud, who, let’s be frank, has been a letdown. Stroud has two finishes inside the top 12 and none since Week 4. Yes, he lost Nico Collins for a stretch and Stefon Diggs was ruled out for the year, but if Stroud is half the quarterback people thought he was then it’s time to start showing it.
The Dolphins are in a must-win scenario. Both the Texans and Dolphins have been playing fast of late with both teams in the top four in pass rate over expected (PROE) since Week 10. That tends to lead to good things for fantasy football. Miami’s weakness all year has been defending the deep pass, allowing the sixth-highest QB Rating when facing such attempts. Meanwhile, Stroud has completed the sixth-highest rate of these passes over the last four weeks.
Correlation Suggestions: There’s very little in the Texans’ passing game outside of Nico Collins, who doesn’t come cheap. Stacking Stroud and Collins with Jaylen Waddle should allow us to differentiate from the field and still fill up on the mid-range running backs.
Most normal CJ Stroud dropback pic.twitter.com/KjoO6PIV2y
— Anthony Lawson (@esquireanthony1) December 3, 2024
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) vs. Patriots | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $7,800
Another quarterback in the slightly disappointing end of the aisle is Kyler Murray, who has lacked consistency all year. After losing to the Seahawks, the Cardinals simply have to win to try and keep their playoff hopes alive. The good news for the Cardinals is that the Patriots rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, allowing the ninth-most receiving touchdowns and the second-highest rate of completed passes over expected (CPOE), per Fantasy Points Data.
Correlation Suggestions: The Cardinals have been trying with all their might to get Trey McBride into the end zone lately, stacking him and Kyler Murray is straightforward. In large contests, though, don’t be afraid to add in the very cheap Marvin Harrison Jr.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) @ Jaguars | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $7,100
The Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and they’ve allowed nine different quarterbacks to finish as a top-12 option against them, as well as three managing to finish as the QB1 in their respective matchups.
Aaron Rodgers is coming off his first 300-yard passing game in two years and admittedly looked better than he had all season. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 141 passing yards per game to play action passes. Over the last four weeks, Rodgers has had the third-most play-action snaps. We can expect him to be particularly lethal on those plays this weekend.
Correlation Suggestions: Last week it was sneaky-good to play Aaron Rodgers double-stacks. That’s where we can go back to this week, pending the health of Davante Adams.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) vs. Commanders | DraftKings: $7,700/FanDuel: $8,800
Last week’s runout against the woeful New York Giants run defense ended poorly for those of us who played Alvin Kamara. But in DFS, long-term memory doesn’t always pay off. Going back to the well this week could be an excellent idea.
The Commanders rank 27th in run defense DVOA, having allowed nine different backs to score touchdowns. With the Saints depleted at almost every position, Kamara could see an absurd amount of touches in Week 14.
Correlation Suggestions: There are no other good plays on the Saints this week, but you could potentially play Alvin Kamara as a bringback to Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin stacks, leveraging away from the more chalky Brian Robinson.
At the age of 29 years old, Alvin Kamara has set a career high in single season rushing yards (938). pic.twitter.com/qkEzPa19Lu
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 12, 2024
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Cowboys | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,500
Chuba Hubbard has 1,152 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns this year. He gets a weak Dallas defense ranked 29th against the run in DVOA and allows the fourth-most running back fantasy points. With Jonathon Brooks on injured reserve (IR), the risk of Hubbard losing carries has subsided. This puts Hubbard into focus for an incredible matchup.
Dallas has allowed eight top-10 running back finishes this year, including most recently in Week 14 to Chase Brown (24.3 PPR points).
Correlation Suggestions: Pairing Chuba Hubbard with Rico Dowdle might require a slower-paced game than we’d prefer, but it’s not the worst idea. Jake Ferguson is fringe playable after a 19% target share in Week 14 and is unlikely to be highly rostered.
Rachaad White (RB – TB) @ Chargers | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $7,200
As of Thursday, Bucky Irving‘s status remains up in the air for this matchup. The Chargers are a strong run defense and allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position, but if Rachaad White is going to see workhorse duties then he’s in play.
White is heading for a career-high 4.2 yards per carry, 0.6 yards more than his previous best, as well as recording 46 targets this year. If Irving sits, White can get home.
Correlation Suggestions: Pairing Rachaad White with Ladd McConkey in DraftKings’ full PPR format looks very appealing.
Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL) @ Panthers | DraftKings: $6,100/FanDuel: $7,100
Another running back, another excellent matchup. It feels viable to start three running backs in tournaments this week. Rico Dowdle has 66 touches to Ezekiel Elliott‘s seven over the last three games. It’s a welcome sight to see Dowdle turning those touches into fantasy production with over 15 points in two of the last three games.
Carolina has allowed the most running back fantasy points this season, ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA and has given up eight top-12 finishes, including an RB1 overall finish to Bucky Irving in Week 13.
Correlation Suggestions: If you’d rather not pair Rico Dowdle with Chuba Hubbard and have two running backs in the same game, Adam Thielen is a must-play. He has seen 21 targets in his last two games.
Starting Rico Dowdle over Jonathan Taylor in the fantasy football playoffs energy pic.twitter.com/rzHr3dQf0v
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 12, 2024
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) vs. Dolphins | DraftKings: $8,100/FanDuel: $9,200
Over the last two fully healthy games for Nico Collins, he’s had 19.9 points and 20.2, averaging 105.5 yards per game.
The Dolphins have a solid enough pass defense on paper, but as we talked about with Stroud, they’re highly vulnerable to deep passes down the field. Garrett Wilson just tortured Jalen Ramsey in Week 14. There’s no reason Collins can’t do the same.
Correlation Suggestions: Nico Collins stacked with C.J. Stroud and brought back with Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill is pricey but worthwhile.
Davante Adams (WR – NYJ) @ Jaguars | DraftKings: $6,900/FanDuel: $7,900
It might have taken a few weeks but Davante Adams hit a high in receiving yards since arriving to the Jets with 109 receiving yards on nine touches.
Adams has gone over 17 points in three of his last five games. He now has a matchup wide receivers can only dream about with the Jaguars’ 32nd-ranked pass defense. If he’s healthy enough to go, he’s a great value.
Correlation Suggestions: Double stacks with Aaron Rodgers. There is no need for a Jaguars bringback.
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN) vs. Bengals | DraftKings: $6,800/FanDuel: $6,000
The Bengals’ pass defense wouldn’t be able to hold their own against a flag football team right now. While Joe Burrow does his best to keep the team’s playoff chances alive, the defense continues to decide otherwise.
The Titans are the latest team that gets the chance to flex their offensive muscles against the Bengals. They will take all the help they can get. Over the last four weeks, Calvin Ridley hasa 37.5% target share. Nobody else on the team is over 12.5%.
Correlation Suggestions: Chase Brown is a touch expensive but pairing him with Calvin Ridley allows you a narrative where Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t hit his ceiling, the Bengals control the game and the Titans stay pass-heavy to try and get back into things.
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) @ Giants | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $7,300
The Ravens’ passing game needs to be more consistent if they have hopes of a deep playoff run. In their game against the Eagles, they looked most impressive when they were keeping Zay Flowers involved with a 40-yard reception on the first passing play of the game.
The Giants struggle against the deep pass, allowing the third-highest completion rate on throws 20+ yards downfield. Flowers has the seventh-most targets 20 yards downfield (19). This game could easily feature plenty of the running game, but with the Ravens 16 points favorites, it could pay off to not be too hyper-focused on one side of the game.
Correlation Suggestions: Lamar Jackson is expensive this week but his ceiling is undeniable and an angry Jackson usually results in plenty of points.
ANOTHER ONE FOR ZAY FLOWERS!!!!!
Tune in on CBS! pic.twitter.com/mmqygaFkRe
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 3, 2024
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI) vs. Patriots | DraftKings: $5,500/FanDuel: $6,600
At this price, we’re hoping for a performance in the range of 15 points, which doesn’t seem too outlandish for Marvin Harrison Jr., who has six games over that mark this year and has scored seven touchdowns.
The Patriots rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and 26th against No. 1 WRs. Harrison is averaging a 22% target share over his last seven games and the team has looked to try and get him more involved lately. A good end-of-season run can continue here.
Correlation Suggestions: It hasn’t paid off often this year but Kyler Murray double-stacks look intriguing with Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride.
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE) vs. Chiefs | DraftKings: $4,900/FanDuel: $5,700
After missing the last two weeks with a concussion, Cedric Tillman looks set to return against the Chiefs. Much of the attention has landed on Jerry Jeudy, who has been excellent of late, but Tillman had three top-12 weekly finishes before a poor showing in Week 11 and the snow game in Week 12.
Tillman is very much in play against a poor Chiefs secondary ranked 17th against the pass in DVOA. Since Week 10, the Chiefs have allowed the sixth-highest rate of completions over expected and the seventh-highest yards per attempt.
Correlation Suggestions: This game doesn’t scream value but it’s hard not to want to attack the Browns at the same time. I’d consider Cedric Tillman paired with Travis Kelce, but not much more than that.
#Browns WR Cedric Tillman (concussion protocol) continued practicing today after returning in a limited capacity yesterday. pic.twitter.com/Zs0M21k6c5
— Camryn Justice (@camijustice) December 12, 2024
Jalen McMillan (WR – TB) @ Chargers | DraftKings: $3,700/FanDuel: $5,500
Sterling Shepard featured in our cash game write up and his target consistency makes him a little more appealing there. But in tournaments, it’s undeniable McMillan has a higher ceiling. Week 14 was McMillan’s best NFL game to date, putting up 21.9 PPR points and finding the end zone twice.
The Chargers are a stout pass defense but the Bucs need to find a way to win, and it’s unlikely they’ll fade away from the passing game.
Correlation Suggestions: Either stack Jalen McMillan with Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield or view him as a small correlation with Ladd McConkey for a pass-friendly game script.
Tyler Boyd (WR – TEN) vs. Bengals | DraftKings: $3,400/FanDuel: $4,800
It’s awfully thin, but a Tyler Boyd revenge game perhaps? The Bengals are allowing the fifth-highest yards per attempt to slot receivers dating back to Week 10 and have given up three touchdowns since then.
Correlation Suggestions: Tyler Boyd works well at this price with anyone you’d want to play from the Bengals.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) vs. Patriots | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $7,500
Is Trey McBride on the slate? Yes. Are we playing Trey McBride? Yes.
It’s really that simple. Yes, the lack of touchdowns is infuriating but that kind of variance works out usually and the Cardinals seem to be aware of it, prioritizing him in the red zone of late. Any tight end boasting a 30% target share is a must-play.
Correlation Suggestions: We mentioned the idea of Kyler Murray double-stacks with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison earlier.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) @ Giants | DraftKings: $4,100/FanDuel: $6,300
It might not always be pretty with Mark Andrews but he’s coming off a season-high seven catches for 69 yards and a touchdown, taking his total for the year to seven touchdowns. A touchdown this week would bring him equal with George Kittle, who leads all tight ends with eight.
Andrews leads all Ravens in red-zone catches with nine. A touchdown at this price is all it would take for him to be a good play, and we know his ceiling is high.
Correlation Suggestions: If everyone wants to play the running game in Derrick Henry, why not flip things and play Lamar Jackson double-stacks that include Mark Andrews?
Grant Calcaterra (TE – PHI) vs. Steelers | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $4,900
On the budget end of the scale, Grant Calcaterra is coming off a game where he scored his first career touchdown. He now faces a Steelers defense giving up more points to tight ends than any other position.
Correlation Suggestions: This game doesn’t feel too pretty. In super large field contests, a Jaylen Warren and Grant Calcaterra correlation is cheap and leans into pass-heavy plays.
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