Underdog best ball drafts for the 2025 NFL season have been running for approximately a month. So, it’s an outstanding time to check in on who’s moving up and down in average draft position (ADP). Furthermore, having ADP data for February 3 and February 28 creates a pair of data points before massive ADP shifts from the NFL Draft Combine results, free agency and trades. Any readers who would like the documents for ADP from February 3 or February 28 can contact me via email or X (Twitter), and I’ll happily send them.
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Best Ball Risers and Fallers in February
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams were the only top-12 quarterbacks to rise within the quarterback ADP rankings. Furthermore, Dak Prescott and J.J. McCarthy were the only other quarterbacks with a top-24 ADP who rose in the ADP rankings at the position. The other upward movement at the position was for players drafted as QB3s.
The top six quarterbacks have fallen in ADP. However, none are featured on the fallers table because they remained in the same order (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes) from February 3 to February 28. Brock Purdy's ADP rose, but he was the only quarterback in the top 12 to fall within the quarterback ADP rankings. C.J. Stroud and Cam Ward were the only other quarterbacks drafted inside the top 24 to dip within the position ADP rankings. Like Ward, Shedeur Sanders was a faller. Tom Brady is a vocal believer in rookie quarterbacks learning from veterans, and the Raiders might be in a position to draft one of Ward or Sanders. Maybe the potential for one of them to end up on the Raiders and spend time learning from a bridge quarterback is deflating their ADPs. Gamers also might not believe in either hitting the ground running.
Running Backs
The table for risers at running back is the first of four multi-page tables. Gamers can click on the arrow in the upper right-hand corner of the table to toggle to the second page. There are a few threads tying risers together at running back. First, rookie running backs are well represented, including Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Devin Neal, Dylan Sampson, RJ Harvey, Damien Martinez, Brashard Smith, Bhayshul Tuten, Jordan James and LeQuint Allen. Second, free agents are littered across the table. Third, Jacksonville's duo of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby both climbed, likely a reaction to the Jaguars hiring Liam Coen as their head coach after he crafted a fantasy-friendly environment for Tampa Bay's running backs in 2024.
Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey were the only two RB1s to fall in the ADP rankings at running back, slipping behind Jeanty. James Cook and James Conner were the only other top-24 running backs to fall, perhaps indicating drafters dislike people named James. Of course, I'm joking about the bias against running backs with the first name James. Cook might have dipped slightly because of his posturing for a contract extension.
Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson, D'Andre Swift, Jerome Ford and Denver's duo of Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin are logical fallers as projected starting running backs who are at the most risk of having their role usurped by an incoming rookie from this year's stacked running back class.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers each moved up a spot, and Tyreek Hill rose from a high-end WR2 to the last WR1 in ADP rankings at wide receiver. San Francisco's young wideout duo of Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall moved up.
Cooper Kupp (15 picks), Jordan Whittington (33 picks) and Jack Bech (26 picks) were the three largest climbers. Kupp's and Whittington's rise in ADPs were correlated. The Rams announced their intention to move on from Kupp, and Whittington should benefit from the team trading or cutting Kupp and Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell being free agents.
Puka Nacua and Brian Thomas fell behind Lamb and Nabers, respectively. It will be interesting to see if Nacua and Thomas jump Lamb and Nabers in the next look at risers and fallers now that Matthew Stafford agreed to a restructured contract with the Rams.
Rashee Rice is justifiably a faller, but he has a long way to go before he's a worthwhile gamble in best ball drafts. The 49ers intend to honor Deebo Samuel's trade request, and Brandon Aiyuk could take time to return to form from reconstructive knee surgery. Their falls coincided with the climbs from Jennings and Pearsall.
Travis Hunter fell more than a round in ADP. Admittedly, I thought there was a bigger debate about Hunter's best/primary position in the NFL and viewed him as an appealing dart throw when drafts opened. However, most analysts believe Hunter is a cornerback first. Thus, Hunter's fall is warranted.
In previous years, rookies were among the most significant risers in ADP. That hasn't been the case for many rookie wide receivers this year, as Isaiah Bond, Xavier Restrepo, Elic Ayomanor, Jalen Royals, Savion Williams, Tez Johnson, Kaden Prather and Ricky White were fallers from February 3 to February 28. There were some risers at the position above, but the lack of them uniformly climbing might be a product of this year's class having fewer wideouts projected as first-round locks than in other recent classes. After their athletic testing at the NFL Draft Combine, things should shake out more among the rookie wideouts.
Tight Ends
The trend of rookies rising in ADP got back on track at tight end, with Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Harold Fannin, Elijah Arroyo and Mason Taylor rising. Youth (Tucker Kraft, Theo Johnson and Brenton Strange) and free agency (Mike Gesicki and Juwan Johnson) were also two links for a few of the risers.
Travis Kelce's ADP cratered while he debated his playing future. He's announced he's returning in 2025, and I can anecdotally tell you Kelce's ADP has been rising since the announcement based on drafts I've participated in. Noah Gray will likely replace Kelce in this section in the next update, while Kelce will appear on the risers table. If you believe in Kelce's 2025 outlook, now is the time to snap him up while his ADP adjusts to the announcement of his return.
Most ADP falls among the tight ends on the table were modest, except for Taysom Hill's plummet. The Saints' versatile weapon tore his ACL in the middle of December. He was over-drafted before the ADP adjustment.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
