When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players below. And you can check out which players our experts are lower on than our expert consensus rankings using our Fantasy Football Rankings Comparison Tools.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Players to Avoid
Let’s dive into players our experts like less than the expert consensus rankings.
Players to Avoid
Remaining healthy all year and completing his first full season since 2020, Kyler Murray finished QB10 overall and QB12 in fantasy points per game (18.1) among quarterback who made multiple starts. It was a bumpy ride to get there, as Murray topped 25 fantasy points four times (three times if you exclude his big game in Week 18) and finished with 12 or fewer fantasy points five times. That’s Murray in a nutshell. He can be wildly inconsistent from game to game – or even from half to half – but his rushing ability makes for a high ceiling. Murray ran for 572 yards and five touchdowns last season. Murray profiles as a boom/bust low-end QB1.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Jared Goff hit career highs in passing yardage (4,629) and TD passes (37) despite a three-year low in pass attempts (539). Goff was ruthlessly efficient, completing 72.4% of his throws and averaging 8.6 yards per attempt – second-best in the league among qualifying QBs in both categories. That helped Goff finish QB6 in overall fantasy scoring and QB7 in fantasy points per game (19.7). But regression could be coming for Goff. He dramatically outkicked his expected fantasy points per game (16.8), and the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could put a dent in Detroit’s offensive production. It’s best to think of Goff as a midrange QB2 rather than the midrange QB1 he was in 2024.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
After throwing for a league-high 4,624 yards in 2023, Tua Tagovailoa played only 11 games in 2024, missing four games with a concussion early in the season and then sitting out the final two games of the season with a hip injury. Concussions are an ongoing concern for Tua, who sustained a pair of them in 2022 and played only 13 games that year. When healthy, Tua is a capable pocket passer who offers no rushing upside. He completed a league-best 72.9% of his throws last season, though he averaged only 5.7 intended air yards per pass attempt. He’s averaged a very respectable 7.6 yards per pass attempt over his career. The Miami offensive line could be problematic in 2025, but Tua has a fine pair of receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, along with TE Jonnu Smith and RB De’Von Achane. Regard Tua as a risky QB2.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Last year, Barkley finished the season as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 378 touches, 2,283 total yards, and 15 total touchdowns. This season, we have to have the volume conversation and the worries about that for Barkley’s outlook for 2025. It’s a similar conversation that we had with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs before him. Is it a concern? Yep. Is it so damning that it should Barkley outside the top 3-5 running backs in preseason rankings? No. My bigger worry is Barkley’s quietly meh tackle-breaking metrics last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he had the fourth-best explosive run rate, but he was also only 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The big thing that helped Barkley was Philly’s awesome offensive line. Among those 46 backs, Barkley had the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.55). Barkley was chewing up almost four yards per carry before he faced the opposition. That helped him a ton, but it will likely help him again in 2025, as Philly will once again have one of the league’s best offensive lines. Barkley remains a top 5 back in 2025 despite some of my concerns.
– Derek Brown
Taylor posted another RB1 season (RB7 in fantasy points per game) while dealing with a high ankle sprain. He racked up 321 touches and 1,567 total yards with 12 scores. While I think Taylor should post another top 12 season in 2025, I do have some concerns. The quarterback play for Indy is a worry with how often they could be in the red zone this year, as well as his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year, Taylor ranked sixth in red zone touches. I don’t know if he comes close to that number this season, but I could easily be wrong. I don’t see more check-down opportunities for Taylor this season with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. It’s not like he’s demanding those looks either, with his per-route performance in 2024, anyway. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranked 37th in target share (7.4%) and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Taylor is a solid pick again this year, but I struggle to see a ceiling outcome for him in 2025.
– Derek Brown
Last year, Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Williams had 350 touches and 1,481 total yards. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again in a contract year, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. Williams is a top 15-20 running back who could easily be an RB1 again or see his stock come crashing down.
– Derek Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown delivered another elite season in 2024, finishing as the WR3 in both total and per-game scoring while leading the NFL in red-zone receptions. However, he did outperform his expected fantasy output (14.6 expected points per game, WR18), and his target share dipped to 23% over the final seven games as Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta gained steam. With Ben Johnson gone and increased competition for targets, there’s reason to be cautious about repeating a top-5 finish.
– Andrew Erickson
Tyreek Hill was a mega bust in 2024, but so much of his poor performance can be placed on the injury to Tua Tagovailoa. Now, admittedly, even when Tua was healthy, Hill still underperformed vs. draft expectations. In those 11 games with his southpaw starting QB, Hill went over 100 yards twice, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game (WR18). He had a wrist injury that he dealt with from Week 1 and his yards per route run cratered to a 1.75 mark – less than half of his 2023 yards per route run. Not to mention, the Cheetah just turned 31 years old, suggesting the age cliff might be near. And let’s not forget Hill’s outburst at the end of the 2024 season, which could lead to Miami moving on from the veteran WR.
– Andrew Erickson
DeVonta Smith‘s 2024 season was a tale of two roles – thriving when others were hurt, but fading when the offense was at full strength. He posted career lows in receptions, yards, and targets but salvaged value with a career-high 8 TDs, finishing as the WR30 overall and WR23 in points per game (13 games). However, in eight games with both A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert active, Smith averaged just 8.3 fantasy points (WR51). When one missed time, he jumped to 14.7 points per game (WR8).
– Andrew Erickson
T.J. Hockenson missed seven games in 2024 while recovering from the devastating knee injury he sustained in December 2023. Upon his return, he had 41 catches for 455 yards in 10 games but didn’t score any touchdowns. Hockenson has been a trusted brand name at the TE position, but he’s entering his age-28 season and has missed 26 games over the last four seasons. Hockenson must share targets with Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and those targets will be coming from a quarterback who’s never started an NFL game, top 2023 Minnesota draft pick J.J. McCarthy. But as a proven performer playing for offensive mastermind Kevin O’Connell, Hockenson still profiles as a top-10 fantasy tight end.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
His first seven NFL seasons were unremarkable, but Jonnu Smith authored a stunning fantasy breakout in Year 8, establishing career highs in targets (111), catches (88), receiving yards (884) and touchdowns (8). Smith finished TE4 in overall PPR fantasy scoring and TE5 in fantasy points per game. Smith went nuclear late in the season, averaging 6.9 catches and 67.1 yards per game from Week 11 on. He scored seven TDs in those eight games and was TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring over that stretch, averaging 18.6 points per game. Smith’s 2024 usage surge seemed to be at least partly the product of an emphasis on the short passing game following QB Tua Tagovailoa‘s return from a concussion. Tagovailoa averaged a career-low 5.7 intended air yards per pass attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. Smith, whose average depth of target last year was 4.9 yards, was a favorite target of Tagovailoa on shorter throws. On the heels of a career-best year, Smith seems like a regression candidate entering his age-30 season and could be overdrafted in 2025.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
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