Running back is usually a volatile, unpredictable position. Weirdness at the RB position is the norm in fantasy football.
It’s unusual to get a season in which there’s relative stability and predictability at running back. The lack of RB weirdness made 2024 a weird year.
The Christian McCaffrey affair was an exception, of course. McCaffrey was the consensus 1.01 in fantasy drafts, and it wound up being a Hindenburg-level disaster for the people who drafted him.
McCaffrey had calf and Achilles issues in training camp that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and McCaffrey himself downplayed. McCaffrey missed the first eight games of the season and wound up playing only four games.
There were some pleasant surprises, too, including Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle.
But otherwise, the RB position was unusually stable. Of the top 12 running backs by half-point PPR average draft position, eight actually finished as RB1s, and two of the misses (McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco were injury-related).
Of the 12 running backs with ADPs in the RB13-RB24 range, nine finished as RB2s or better in half-point PPR scoring, and two more (Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker) were near-misses.
One reason for the unusual predictability at the RB position was an atypical dispersion of injuries. Normally, running backs have higher injury rates than wide receivers, Last season was an exception. McCaffrey and Pacheco were the only running backs to miss significant chunks of the season due to injury.
Meanwhile, the upper reaches of the WR position were shredded, with Brandon Aiyuk, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tee Higgins, Puka Nacua and Rashee Rice all missing at least three games.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
What does this mean for 2025?
After a year in which we had less RB volatility than usual and more injury-related WR volatility than usual, we might see more of a lean toward running backs in the early rounds of 2025 fantasy drafts.
The question is whether it’s wise to load up on running backs in the early rounds.
The key consideration is the number of wide receivers you’re required to start every week.
If you only have to start two wide receivers, you aren’t obligated to aggressively attack the WR position. It’s acceptable to merely keep up with your competitors at wide receiver as long as you’re building positional advantages elsewhere.
But if you have to start three receivers, investing heavily in the WR position is imperative.
Wide receiver is a crucial position in 3WR leagues simply because receivers make up such a large percentage of your starting lineup. If your league requires you to start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 FLEX, at least 37.5% of your non-defense, non-kicker starters will be WRs. That percentage jumps to 50% if you put a WR in the flex spot.
In a league where you only have to start two wide receivers every week, drafting a pair of running backs in the first two or three rounds is a viable strategy.
In a league where you have to start three wide receivers every week, pounding the RB opposition in the early rounds puts you at risk of shorting yourself at the WR position — a position that has amplified importance because you have to start so many.
Four Approaches to Drafting Running Backs
Let’s look at four strategies for drafting running backs.
Zero RB: Pioneered by Shawn Siegele of RotoViz, this strategy involves bypassing RBs in the early rounds of your draft and focusing heavily on pass catchers with early picks.
Hero RB: A variation on Zero RB, this strategy allows for the drafting of a top running back in one of the first two rounds of your draft, with other early-round picks dedicated to non-RBs.
Robust RB: This strategy involves an RB-heavy approach in the early rounds – typically three RBs in the first four rounds.
Opportunistic RB: This is basically just a value-hunting approach to the position. Is there value at RB in the early rounds? Jump on it. If not, be patient and get your RBs later.
In years where running backs are injured more frequently, those RB injuries create opportunities for backups, and we’ll see late-round or undrafted running backs become immensely valuable.
That’s one of the reasons why Zero RB is a viable strategy: You can still do well for yourself at running back if you hit on one or two unexpected surprises at the position.
Another reason Zero RB is viable: The WR position typically does not yield many late-round gems, so it’s hard to play catch-up at the position without investing early-round picks.
Fantasy Football Targets & Avoids
Here are some of the running backs I’m targeting and avoiding at various price points.
Early Rounds
Target: Bijan Robinson (ATL)
Bijan amassed 1,887 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in his second NFL season, and there could be even better numbers ahead. Robinson is wildly talented, and there’s reason to think the Atlanta offense will be better with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback than with Kirk Cousins. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to draft Bijan at 1.01.
Target: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
Don’t be afraid to draft him simply because he’s new to the NFL. Jeanty is an uber-prospect with hard-to-believe contact balance. He’s a worthy first-round pick.
Target: Bucky Irving (TB)
Bucky had 1,514 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns last season despite beginning the year in a backup role. He averaged 3.93 yards after contact per attempt, according to PFF — tops among all RBs who had 60 or more carries. He ranked seventh in PFF rushing grade, ninth in breakaway percentage, and fourth in yards per route run (1.62) among RBs with at least 20 catches.
Avoid: Breece Hall (NYJ)
New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has repeatedly talked about wanting to use all three of his running backs. And Hall’s pass-catching upside could be curbed with Justin Fields at QB for the Jets. Running QBs tend to check down to their RBs less often because they’ll often just run themselves when pass protection breaks down. When Fields was the Bears’ full-time quarterback in 2022, Chicago running backs combined for only 46 catches.
Avoid: James Cook (BUF)
Cook had 18 touchdowns last season after finding the end zone nine times in his first two seasons. Expect regression. And while Cook is a good pass catcher, he’s averaged a modest 38 catches over the last two seasons. Bills QB Josh Allen doesn’t throw to his RBs all that much.
Avoid: David Montgomery (DET)
Will the Lions’ offense be as good after the departure of playcaller Ben Johnson and the retirement of Frank Ragnow? Will Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs split work almost 50/50 now that Gibbs has proven to be one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers? And can Montgomery keep up a torrid touchdown pace after scoring 25 TDs in 28 regular-season games the last two seasons? Color me skeptical.
Middle Rounds
Target: Jordan Mason (MIN)
In the 49ers’ first five games of 2024, Mason averaged 107 rushing yards per game, 120 scrimmage yards per game, and 5.1 yards per carry. Mason is a terrific fit for a Minnesota running game that’s heavy on outside-zone runs. Mason could have stand-alone value even if 30-year-old Aaron Jones stays healthy. If Jones were to miss time, Mason could deliver RB1 value.
Target: Zach Charbonnet (SEA)
Charbonnet has impressed whenever he’s gotten an opportunity. He averaged 3.35 yards after contact per carry last year and forced 32 missed tackles on 135 rushing attempts, per PFF. He had a pair of two-touchdown games last year in contests Kenneth Walker missed. And it’s a good bet that the Seahawks’ ground game will thrive under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and run game coordinator Rick Dennison.
Avoid: Najee Harris (LAC)
Najee’s fantasy value has been largely tied to heavy rushing volume. He’s had at least 255 carries in each of his four NFL seasons. We probably can’t count on that sort of volume this year now that he’s sharing a backfield with the Chargers’ first-round pick, Omarion Hampton, a terrific prospect. An eye injury sustained in a Fourth of July fireworks mishap further clouds the outlook for Najee.
Avoid: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Stevenson fumbled seven times last season and lost playing time as a result. Now he’s destined to lose snaps to talented rookie TreVeyon Henderson.
Later Rounds
Target: Austin Ekeler (WAS)
He’s falling through the cracks in drafts, but Ekeler is a proven performer playing in an ascendant Washington offense. Ekeler scored double-digit PPR points in 8-of-12 games last season and finished RB31 in fantasy points per game. When Brian Robinson Jr. missed a pair of midseason games with a hamstring injury, Ekeler had 134 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns in those two contests.
Avoid: Rico Dowdle (CAR)
He’ll draw late-round interest after his 1,000-yard rushing season for Dallas, but the Panthers gave Dowdle a one-year, bare-bones contract to be Chuba Hubbard‘s backup.
A Word About RB Handcuffing
Dedicating two roster spots to the RB position on a single NFL team — a practice known as handcuffing — is a suboptimal strategy in your draft and early in the season. You’re better off spreading your bets around and trying to strike gold in a different backfield.
Let’s say you spend an early draft pick on Bijan Robinson. Some fantasy managers believe that if you draft Bijan, you should also draft his primary backup, Tyler Allgeier. But Allgeier has no stand-alone value and would be no more than an insurance policy.
Drafting Allgeier robs you of a chance to find the next Bucky Irving — a late-round running back who becomes the sort of player who can tilt the balance of power in a fantasy league. Imagine pairing Bijan with a player as impactful as Bucky Irving was last year. The odds of striking gold with late-round RBs aren’t great, but it’s important that you give yourself that chance.
When it’s late in the season, your team is a contender, and you’re making playoff preparation, securing the handcuff to your primary RB makes more sense.
Running Back Rankings & Tiers
Here are the top 50 running backs in my redraft rankings, sorted into tiers, with thoughts on some of the players from each tier.
Tier 1
Saquon Barkley was a monster last year, with 2,005 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns. But if you include playoff games, Barkley had 482 touches last season — a Herculean workload. It’s fair to wonder if there will be after-effects. That said, the Eagles may have the best RB ecosystem of any team in the league, thanks largely to an outstanding offensive line.
Jahmyr Gibbs scored a league-high 20 touchdowns last season. That number seems destined to slip in 2025, and the loss of Lions playcaller Ben Johnson is slightly worrisome, but Gibbs has averaged 5.5 yards per carry since coming into the league and adds ample pass-catching value.
Tier 2
Dare we have another dance with Christian McCaffrey? He’s 29 and has a troublesome injury history, but we saw the upside in 2023, when McCaffrey had 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns.
Derrick Henry is entering his age-31 season, and there aren’t many running backs who’ve had big seasons at that age. But Henry seems to be a different species altogether, seemingly indestructible and impervious to age. He had 1,921 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns in his first season with the Ravens.
From November on, Chase Brown averaged 18.9 carries and 4.8 receptions a game. We shouldn’t expect him to average 23.6 touches a game like he did over the second half of last season, but the Bengals didn’t make any significant RB additions in the offseason, so Brown should still be the undisputed lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.
Kyren Williams has finished RB2 and RB8 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game the last two seasons. With Kyren’s 316 carries last season, the only running backs with more were Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. But Kyren investors have to be nervous about how the Rams keep adding to their backfield. They drafted Blake Corum in the third round last year, and they drafted Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round this year.
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Tier 3
James Conner misses games here and there, and he’s 30 now. But Conner is locked in as the Cardinals’ lead back, and he’s usually pretty affordable in drafts.
Alvin Kamara still hasn’t had a 1,000-yard rushing season in his career, but he’s a prolific pass catcher who had 68 receptions in 2024. The Saints’ QB situation is grim, and it’s not hard to imagine Kamara catching a ton of short passes from quarterbacks who can’t consistently complete passes downfield.
Tier 4
Broncos rookie R.J. Harvey is small (5-9, 208), but his quickness and lateral agility are exceptional. He’s a very capable pass catcher, and running backs in Sean Payton’s offenses always catch a lot of passes.
Kaleb Johnson fits the Steelers’ ethos perfectly. He’s a no-nonsense runner who should fit offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s zone-heavy scheme nicely, and Johnson should be effective at the goal line.
On one hand, D’Andre Swift should once again be Chicago’s primary running back after finishing RB23 in half-point PPR scoring last year. On the other hand, Swift wasn’t especially effective, ranking outside the top 30 in explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt.
Tier 5
Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2 and wasn’t very effective upon his Week 13 return, averaging 3.6 yards per carry with no touchdowns over his final five games. We should probably give him a mulligan since running on a recently broken leg can’t be easy.
Tier 6
The Jacksonville RB situation is perhaps the hardest to parse in the entire league. Tank Bigsby was an effective and efficient runner last season, but he’s a zero in the passing game. Travis Etienne’s performance fell way off last season after a strong campaign in 2023. And the Jaguars drafted the speedy Bhayshul Tuten to further complicate matters. Things are messy, but the good news is that you don’t have to invest much to buy a raffle ticket for the Jaguars’ backfield.
Tyrone Tracy showed some exciting flashes last year as a rookie, showing promise as a runner and receiver. But the Giants spent a fourth-round pick on RB Cam Skattebo, who’s coming off a monster season at Arizona State.
Tier 7
Rachaad White lost the lead-back role to Bucky Irving last year in Tampa and isn’t getting it back, but White is an effective pass catcher who could still have some PPR value in addition to his handcuff value.
Isaac Guerendo looked good in limited action for the 49ers last year and could be an interesting lottery ticket who could be cashed in if Christian McCaffrey can’t stay healthy. But Guerendo will have to beat out rookie Jordan James for the backup job.
As a rookie, Ray Davis had 152 yards from scrimmage in a Week 6 game against the Jets when James Cook was out with turf toe. He’s an intriguing late-round flyer.
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