Was Waiting on a QB Strategy Effective in 2024? (Fantasy Football)

Fantasy football experts have long advocated waiting to draft a quarterback in 1QB leagues. The depth and volatility at the position make waiting until the later rounds to draft a quarterback a viable option. However, that trend has changed in the past few years, with many fantasy experts and players targeting an elite quarterback early in drafts.

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So fantasy players want to know – was waiting on a quarterback an effective draft strategy in 2024? The answer is yes. However, how effective was the strategy? First, let’s look at how much injuries impacted the quarterback position.

Was Waiting on a QB Strategy Effective in 2024?

The Injury Impact

Everyone heard that over 60 quarterbacks started a game in 2023. Unfortunately, that didn’t change in 2024, as 59 different quarterbacks made a start. However, let’s dive a little deeper than that. Was there a higher number of quarterbacks injured last season than in the past? I decided to look back at the past eight years and see how many quarterbacks attempted a pass and how many had at least 100 attempts each season.

Despite all the talk that there were over 60 starting quarterbacks in 2023, there wasn’t a bump in the number of quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts compared to 2022. Similarly, 46 quarterbacks had at least 100 pass attempts last year. Furthermore, the jump in quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts came between 2021 and 2022, with a 10.6% increase, which lines up with the first few seasons of a 17-game schedule.

Over the past three years, there have been an average of 47 quarterbacks per season with at least 100 pass attempts and 78 with one attempt. By comparison, there was an average of 42.6 quarterbacks per season with at least 100 pass attempts and 71.8 with one attempt over the previous five years.

The slight bump in the number of quarterbacks seeing the field could be because of the extra regular-season game. While there wasn’t a jump in quarterbacks seeing the field in the first year with 17 games (2021), the past three seasons saw an increase compared to the 2020 season. Yet, the jump isn’t significant enough to say it played a role in last year’s late-round quarterback draft strategy.

2024 Quarterback Review

Fantasy players who waited on a quarterback last season were more likely to win the league than those who spent an early-round pick on the position. There were a few quarterbacks who were drafted early and finished inside the top five. However, several QB1 finishers last year weren’t drafted inside the top 10. Let’s look at the data on how the quarterbacks ended the 2024 season.

Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, and Jackson were the first four quarterbacks drafted last season. Unfortunately, Hurts slipped out of the top five finishers because of a late-season injury. Yet, Jackson and Allen finished as the top two scoring fantasy quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Mahomes was a massive bust for the second consecutive year, ending the season barely in the low-end QB1 range.

Five of the top nine finishers outperformed their positional ADP by at least seven spots. Furthermore, three of those five quarterbacks outperformed their positional ADP by 16 or more spots, including Darnold by 22.

While the top 12 had several surprise finishes, the high-end QB2s weren’t shocking. Purdy and Rodgers finished within three spots of their ADP. Meanwhile, Smith had a surprising finish, ending the year as the QB14 despite getting drafted 10 spots later on average.

Now, let’s look at the data from the ADP side and see how much fantasy players regretted drafting a quarterback early last season.

Unfortunately, Jackson and Burrow were the only quarterbacks in the top 10 to outperform their ADP. Allen and Hurts would have likely met or outperformed their ADP if not for injuries or meaningless Week 18 games. Meanwhile, Murray finished two spots lower than his ADP, which isn’t ideal. Yet, fantasy players can accept that kind of return on their investment.

However, three of the top six quarterbacks and five of the top 10 in ADP were massive fantasy busts. Prescott missed the final nine games with a hamstring injury that required surgery. Meanwhile, Richardson and Love missed time with minor injuries. Unfortunately, Mahomes and Stroud failed to live up to their top-five ADP despite playing in every meaningful game.

Meanwhile, Daniels and Goff got drafted as low-end QB1s or high-end QB2s in most leagues. Yet, they both vastly outperformed their ADP, finishing at least seven spots higher than when drafted. Furthermore, Daniels was a league winner, ranking as the QB2 on a points-per-game basis if you remove the two contests he left early.

2025 Late-Round Quarterback Draft Targets

After seeing the data from the 2024 season, fantasy players should feel confident that waiting on a quarterback in 2025 is a usable strategy. Injuries played an insignificant role in the late-round quarterback draft strategy working last year. Yet, there is no reason not to expect a similar outcome this upcoming season.

Let’s look at five quarterbacks with an ADP outside the top 12 that fantasy players should target in their drafts this year.

ADP via FantasyPros

Justin Fields (NYJ) | ADP: QB13

While Fields is a below-average NFL starting quarterback, he is an underrated fantasy option because of his rushing abilities. The former Ohio State star averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game over the first six weeks of last season as the starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That average would have made him the QB8 on a points-per-game basis in 2024. More importantly, Fields was productive in his last year as the unquestioned starter, ranking as the QB9 on a points-per-game basis in 2023 among quarterbacks with at least nine games played.

Dak Prescott (DAL) | ADP: QB14

Unfortunately, Prescott missed the second half of last year with a hamstring injury. Yet, the veteran was a fantasy star in 2023. He was the QB3 that season, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game, totaling a career-high 36 passing touchdowns. Furthermore, Prescott had little impact on the ground, totaling two rushing scores. More importantly, he had a very similar set of weapons compared to this year’s unit. However, the Cowboys recently traded for George Pickens, giving Prescott his best No. 2 wide receiver since having Amari Cooper in 2021.

Drake Maye (NE) | ADP: QB16

Fantasy players should have high hopes for Maye in 2025. Last year, he didn’t start until Week 6 and left a couple of games early. However, Maye averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests he started and finished. He would have finished as the QB13 over a 17-game pace with that average. Thankfully, the Patriots massively improved their offensive line and receiving core this offseason. They drafted Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson while signing Stefon Diggs in free agency, giving Maye a significantly better supporting cast.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | ADP: QB19

The Jaguars should have one of the most improved offenses in the NFL this season, which makes Lawrence an appealing sleeper candidate. Last year, he struggled with injuries and a dysfunctional offense, ending the season as the QB27, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game. Thankfully, Jacksonville hired Liam Coen as their head coach, improved the offensive line in free agency, and traded up in the NFL Draft for Travis Hunter. Don’t be surprised if Lawrence has a breakout season under Coen like Baker Mayfield did last year.

J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | ADP: QB20

Minnesota showed significant confidence in McCarthy by letting Sam Darnold walk in free agency after coming off a career year. The former Michigan star missed his rookie season because of a torn meniscus. However, he shined in his lone preseason game, totaling two passing touchdowns and 15.3 fantasy points on 17 attempts. More importantly, the Vikings improved their offensive line this offseason, adding three new starters. Furthermore, they have an elite set of weapons. Don’t be surprised if McCarthy has a Patrick Mahomes-lite first year as a starter.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.