When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Here are players to target or avoid with early, middle, and late first-round draft picks in 2025 fantasy football leagues.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice & Strategy
Early-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
For the most part, the top targets in redraft ADP seem to be the same that we’ve seen in best ball leagues for most of the offseason. Ja’Marr Chase is the consensus 1.01, with a barrage of top talent fighting it out behind him. In most leagues, we can expect Ja’Marr Chase to be off the board by the time we pick at the 1.03, and then it’s most likely one of Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley is taken next, but here at the third pick, we’ll still have strong choices to consider.
It’s quite surprising to see Saquon Barkley falling down ADP and consensus rankings coming off a historical year where he rushed for 330 more yards than the next nearest running back. Barkley also notched 15 touchdowns and was a top-five RB in seven weeks. It seems that the worry for Barkley would be whether that efficiency can continue, coming off over 400 combined touches in the playoffs and regular season. The history of running backs seeing that much volume tends not to be kind to them in their next seasons, which is why it’s not as straightforward as some may like but many people are starting their draft prep for 2025 now and are shocked to see Barkley isn’t the consensus 1.01, so don’t be surprised to see him taken this highly in many drafts, even if the rankings are starting to drag him further down for now.
Another year, another QB for Justin Jefferson, but that hasn’t stopped Jefferson from producing, with him averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game over the course of his career with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson. Camp reports around J.J. McCarthy have been mixed, but generally the Vikings seem to be confident they’ve made the right move putting their faith in McCarthy as he heads into his second year ready to make his NFL debut. The last time that Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022 and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021. That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. It is a little hard, however, to elevate Jefferson ahead of Chase when Jefferson is already missing time due to a ‘mild’ hamstring strain, and while the use of the word mild is reassuring, soft tissue injuries can linger.
Sometimes, rather than going off who finished highest last year, it can pay to take a more forward-thinking approach. Bijan Robinson ranked third among running backs in rushing yards (1,456) and scored only two fewer touchdowns than James Cook and Derrick Henry, who led RBs with 16 during the fantasy season. Robinson also ranked 1st out of 46 running backs in the lowest proportion of his runs being stuffed at the line of scrimmage and ranked top two in success rate in both man and zone scheme runs per FantasyPoints.com. In the receiving game, Robinson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs with 58 receptions. He scores touchdowns, accumulates a lot of yards and earns targets, it’s the recipe we want to look for in a potential RB1 overall. Reports from around the Falcons training camp expect Tyler Allgeier to continue to spell Robinson at times, but the recurring theme in the reports is that Robinson will get a large volume of touches.
There is a slow and steady drumbeat forming for Jahmyr Gibbs in recent weeks, with established analysts such as Evan Silva and Ben Gretch both elevating Gibbs to their RB1 overall. Reports out of training camp suggest this year Gibbs could take a bigger share of the workload, despite the Lions still being enamored with David Montgomery. We might be hesitant about drafting Gibbs at this spot, due to Montgomery’s looming presence in the backfield, we’re all very familiar with his presence around the goal line in particular. With that said, Gibbs finished as the RB3 in PPR PPG, third in RB total yardage and sixth in RB targets. He was undeniably excellent and had six games with 20 or more PPR points. Four of those games came when Montgomery was healthy and also playing. Gibbs is a ceiling outcome player, who might not be as safe as other options but there’s no denying his upside or how much fun he can be to watch.
Not to downplay David Montgomery, but man… imagine Gibbs full-time with no competition. pic.twitter.com/GWwuhGb1gg
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 3, 2025
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.03 opens up many roster construction possibilities but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Justin Jefferson, there will still be running backs available when it makes it back to you of a strong caliber and you’ll have access to the top end QBs and TEs with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Trey McBride in this range. If you go RB to start the draft, the WRs who make it back are a little less appealing with Tyreek Hill and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both bringing question marks to their 2025 seasons. Because of this, my leaning tends to be the WR start with Justin Jefferson, but if he’s not available, the difference between Gibbs and Lamb is much closer and I’d lean Gibbs for the homerun swing.
Middle-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Avoid at 1.06 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
As we’ve already covered, Brock Bowers caught a record-breaking 112 receptions in 2024, a simply astounding accomplishment for a rookie tight end, but we still can’t get too carried away. Currently, Bowers tends to go a few picks later, around 1.12 or 2.01 typically, and tight end production can be so volatile that dragging him up to the 1.06 pick seems problematic unless your league has a large tight end-premium scoring setting.
A year ago, confidence in Sam LaPorta was sky-high, and we all know how that worked out. No position is as susceptible to the ups and downs of fantasy football quite like tight end, and while locking in Bowers might feel like a way to avoid that, it could be an incredibly costly mistake should he fail to gel in this new offense.
A true league-winner in 2024 and available in the mid-rounds after coming up big down the stretch, Brian Thomas Jr. heads into his sophomore season with a new head coach in Liam Coen, who was one of the most desired offensive minds this offseason.
The trouble for Thomas is that his 10 touchdowns did carry his fantasy points at times, and touchdowns year to year aren’t always sticky, particularly with a new offensive scheme. While people are divided on Travis Hunter‘s fantasy outlook, it’s fair to say that even 60% of the offensive snaps for Hunter would represent a significant upgrade on the target competition Thomas had in 2024.
Make no mistake, Thomas belongs in the top 15 picks, but not quite as high as some of the wide receivers before him.
If you’re contemplating Derrick Henry here, it likely means there has been a mean run on running backs to start your draft. Henry is coming off 1,953 all-purpose yards and 16 touchdowns in 2024, but he is 31 and has the lowest target share of any back in the top two rounds (4.4%).
Henry is an excellent talent, but not a better choice than some of the wide receivers ahead of him in average draft position (ADP). Henry potentially could make it back to you in the middle of the second round, which is a far more palatable price.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.06 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.06 opens up many roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Puka Nacua, there will still be top running backs available when the draft board makes it back to you — players like Bucky Irving and Josh Jacobs — and you’ll have access to the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends.
If you go running back to start the draft, the receivers who make it back are a little less appealing, with A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey both having enough doubt about them to stop them from being first-round talents. Because of this, you might find it easier to go with a Hero RB build and draft your RB1 in the first or second round. If you lean into a Dual RB build, it can become much harder to build a nice wide receiver room.
Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.11 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
As the summer goes on, don’t be surprised if average draft position (ADP) pushes running backs higher up draftboards, particularly if Christian McCaffrey stays healthy, but for now both McCaffrey and Ashton Jeanty should be available to consider in this range.
One of the more divisive picks of the first round is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who some people view as potentially in trouble due to the emergence of Jameson Williams, as well as a healthy offseason for Sam LaPorta.
However, St. Brown has seen 140+ targets in each of the last three seasons, as well as seeing his touchdowns increase each year in the league to a career-high 12 in 2024. In the coming days, we’ll have more of an idea how much of an issue St. Brown’s offseason knee surgery truly is. If he’s out there practicing fully, he could be liable for a price increase.
In full PPR formats, St. Brown will be an easier click than in half-PPR leagues. Ultimately, how much should you worry about a receiver who has finished as the WR3 in total points for the last two seasons?
Since the start of the 2023 season, Nico Collins leads all wide receivers in yards per route run versus man coverage, and his journey from zero to hero has been truly impressive. There are still reasons to doubt his ability to crack the top of the wide receiver chart, but he’s an interesting upside swing at this point in the draft.
Collins is the clear alpha in an offense featuring two new rookie receivers, the often-injured Christian Kirk and Tank Dell, who potentially could miss the entire season. According to FantasyPoints.com, Collins is the only wide receiver to have ranked inside of the top 10 in yards per route run versus zone and man coverage in back-to-back years.
In Weeks 1-5 last season, Collins was the WR2 overall, averaging 21.6 points per game before missing time with a hamstring injury. The injury history might be enough to put some people off, but one thing we’ve learned in fantasy football is that you’re injury prone until you’re not, and that presents an opportunity.
With Jonnu Smith now in Pittsburgh, a rise in average draft position (ADP) for De’Von Achane felt inevitable. A month ago, he went in the early-to-mid-second round, and now he’s hot on the heels of Christian McCaffrey and Ashton Jeanty. After a prolific first season in efficiency metrics but lacking in volume, Achane took it up a step in 2024, despite the Dolphins being a miserable mess.
Achane led all running backs with 78 catches, while also leading the position with 591 receiving yards and tying Rachaad White for the lead in receiving touchdowns (six). Achane recorded 70% of the Dolphins’ carries inside the 5-yard line, a higher number than Bijan Robinson. His only downside was a lack of touches. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert have moved on, and there’s a chance for Achane to break the league. Particularly given how poor the Dolphins’ defense looks on paper.
Roster Construction From the 1.11 Pick
The 1.11 pick opens up a lot of roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. The good news is that the back half of drafts this year is so strong, you’re almost guaranteed two really good players.
If you take Amon-Ra St. Brown, there will still be running backs available a couple of picks later with immense upside, such as De’Von Achane. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen may be gone before your third and fourth round picks, but Jayden Daniels could potentially be available, and there are still later-round quarterback gems like Justin Fields and Drake Maye, who possess dual-threat abilities.
If you go with a running back to start the draft, the receivers who make it back are still of a good caliber, with A.J. Brown, Ladd McConkey and Drake London all nearby. Wide receivers in the third and fourth rounds tend to be a little more questionable, though, so securing at least one feels like the right move.
Draft Advice for Every First-Round Pick
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.01
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.02
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.03
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.04
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.05
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.06
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.07
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.08
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.09
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.10
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.11
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.12
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