When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Here are players to target or avoid with early, middle, and late first-round draft picks in 2025 fantasy football leagues.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice & Strategy
Early-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Here are players that are likely to be available when you make your selection:
Players to Target at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
For the most part, the top targets in redraft ADP seem to be the same that we’ve seen in best ball leagues for most of the offseason. Ja’Marr Chase is the consensus 1.01, with a barrage of top talent fighting it out behind him. In most leagues, we can expect Ja’Marr Chase to be off the board by the time we pick at the 1.03, and then it’s most likely one of Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley is taken next, but here at the third pick, we’ll still have strong choices to consider.
It’s quite surprising to see Saquon Barkley falling down ADP and consensus rankings coming off a historical year where he rushed for 330 more yards than the next nearest running back. Barkley also notched 15 touchdowns and was a top-five RB in seven weeks. It seems that the worry for Barkley would be whether that efficiency can continue, coming off over 400 combined touches in the playoffs and regular season. The history of running backs seeing that much volume tends not to be kind to them in their next seasons, which is why it’s not as straightforward as some may like but many people are starting their draft prep for 2025 now and are shocked to see Barkley isn’t the consensus 1.01, so don’t be surprised to see him taken this highly in many drafts, even if the rankings are starting to drag him further down for now.
Another year, another QB for Justin Jefferson, but that hasn’t stopped Jefferson from producing, with him averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game over the course of his career with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson. Camp reports around J.J. McCarthy have been mixed, but generally the Vikings seem to be confident they’ve made the right move putting their faith in McCarthy as he heads into his second year ready to make his NFL debut. The last time that Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022 and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021. That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. It is a little hard, however, to elevate Jefferson ahead of Chase when Jefferson is already missing time due to a ‘mild’ hamstring strain, and while the use of the word mild is reassuring, soft tissue injuries can linger.
Sometimes, rather than going off who finished highest last year, it can pay to take a more forward-thinking approach. Bijan Robinson ranked third among running backs in rushing yards (1,456) and scored only two fewer touchdowns than James Cook and Derrick Henry, who led RBs with 16 during the fantasy season. Robinson also ranked 1st out of 46 running backs in the lowest proportion of his runs being stuffed at the line of scrimmage and ranked top two in success rate in both man and zone scheme runs per FantasyPoints.com. In the receiving game, Robinson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs with 58 receptions. He scores touchdowns, accumulates a lot of yards and earns targets, it’s the recipe we want to look for in a potential RB1 overall. Reports from around the Falcons training camp expect Tyler Allgeier to continue to spell Robinson at times, but the recurring theme in the reports is that Robinson will get a large volume of touches.
There is a slow and steady drumbeat forming for Jahmyr Gibbs in recent weeks, with established analysts such as Evan Silva and Ben Gretch both elevating Gibbs to their RB1 overall. Reports out of training camp suggest this year Gibbs could take a bigger share of the workload, despite the Lions still being enamored with David Montgomery. We might be hesitant about drafting Gibbs at this spot, due to Montgomery’s looming presence in the backfield, we’re all very familiar with his presence around the goal line in particular. With that said, Gibbs finished as the RB3 in PPR PPG, third in RB total yardage and sixth in RB targets. He was undeniably excellent and had six games with 20 or more PPR points. Four of those games came when Montgomery was healthy and also playing. Gibbs is a ceiling outcome player, who might not be as safe as other options but there’s no denying his upside or how much fun he can be to watch.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.03 opens up many roster construction possibilities but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Justin Jefferson, there will still be running backs available when it makes it back to you of a strong caliber and you’ll have access to the top end QBs and TEs with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Trey McBride in this range. If you go RB to start the draft, the WRs who make it back are a little less appealing with Tyreek Hill and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both bringing question marks to their 2025 seasons. Because of this, my leaning tends to be the WR start with Justin Jefferson, but if he’s not available, the difference between Gibbs and Lamb is much closer and I’d lean Gibbs for the homerun swing.
Middle-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.06 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Once we get past the top four picks, including Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson, it becomes a slightly flatter tier for several picks. Back in June, it seemed unlikely Christian McCaffrey would be in this range, but after making it through organized team activities (OTAs) healthy and with the backups getting hurt, his rise continues to trend upwards.
Equally, a month ago, Ashton Jeanty seemed set for this range, but as drafts get underway, his average draft position (ADP) has dropped slightly. It’s unlikely Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase will enter this area, but you’re still likely to have strong wide receiver options.
This comes down to risk tolerance, and for some, spending a first-round pick on a 29-year-old running back who has only played over 11 games once in the last four years might be a stretch too far. When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is as good as anyone in this league and has won people fantasy championships plenty of times over, but the injury record is cause for concern.
According to reports, McCaffrey took part in everything at organized team activities (OTAs), including some drills most veterans sat out, indicating he’s over his Achilles issues he suffered through in 2024. If he is healthy, then it’s hard to fade an elite pass-catcher and game-breaking talent.
Isaac Guerendo also impressed last year, to the point that the 49ers were willing to trade Jordan Mason to the Vikings. Guerendo averaged 16.3 PPR points in the games where he saw double-digit touches. He could be in for an increased role in 2025. Even if that role eats into McCaffrey’s ceiling, we’re probably still talking about a top-five running back, and we know how hard it is to find them later in drafts.
One of the true bright spots of 2024 fantasy football was Malik Nabers, who broke Puka Nacua’s record for rookie receptions with 109. If it weren’t for Brock Bowers getting to 112, he might be talked up even further.
The argument against drafting Nabers last year was his poor quarterback situation, and while it isn’t exactly perfect this year, Nabers showed enough to assuage any doubts. Current reports suggest it’s a true battle between Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart for the QB1 job, with Jameis Winston a distant third choice.
Any of those options could be better than last year’s quadrant of poor options. Among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle all ranked in the bottom 20% of yards per attempt (YPA), and only DeVito ranked above 40th in quarterback rating (33rd).
Wilson ranked 16th in quarterback rating and 18th in YPA, while the Giants believed in Dart enough to spend a first-round pick on him. Nabers continues to have minimal competition around him, with Wan’Dale Robinson the most noteworthy. Nabers should be set for another top-10 positional finish, having finished as the fantasy WR6 in 2024.
Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Avoid at 1.09 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
A few weeks ago, Puka Nacua wasn’t falling to this range, but then a few weeks ago, we hadn’t lived through the point in time when some Rams fans questioned if Matthew Stafford was still alive. It’s true. There’s a very weird corner of the internet out there full of Weekend at Bernie’s memes.
The Rams have put a large chunk of their faith in Nacua after moving on from Cooper Kupp. Davante Adams should help alleviate some of the pressure from Nacua, with him ranking 58th in ESPN’s open score metric, compared to Kupp, who ranked 108th out of 116 qualifying receivers. Nacua has averaged 6.6 receptions per game over his two seasons and consistently delivered.
The only area Nacua could improve is touchdowns, with nine combined across two seasons, which, in truth, is a pretty big deal. Stafford has practiced in full for two consecutive days, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be, and as Christian McCaffrey drafters from 2024 will tell you, spending a first-round pick on a player with an injury situation hanging over them isn’t much fun. It might be unfair to put that on Nacua, but it’s also worth remembering his starting quarterback will be Jimmy Garoppolo if Stafford isn’t healthy.
After Jonnu Smith was traded to the Steelers, De’Von Achane started to creep higher in drafts, and he seemed to be gaining popularity, but then he injured his calf, and things began to cool somewhat.
After a prolific first season in efficiency metrics but lacking in volume, Achane took it up a step in 2024 despite the Dolphins being a miserable mess. Achane led all running backs with 78 catches, while also leading the position with 591 receiving yards and tying with Rachaad White in receiving touchdowns (six apiece).
Achane had 70% of the Dolphins’ carries inside the 5-yard line, a higher number than Bijan Robinson. His only downside was a lack of touches. If Achane can recover in time for the season and not deal with any hangovers from the calf injury, he could be a league winner, but that’s a big if for your first-round pick.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.09 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.09 opens up many roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Nico Collins, there will still be top running backs available when the draft board makes it back to you — players like Bucky Irving and De’Von Achane — and you’ll have access to the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends.
If you go running back to start the draft, the receivers who make it back are a little less appealing, with Drake London and A.J. Brown both having enough doubt about them to stop them from being first-round talents. Because of this, you might find it easier to go with a Hero RB build and draft your RB1 in the first or second round. If you lean into a Dual RB build, it can become much harder to build a nice wide receiver room.
Draft Advice for Every First-Round Pick
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.01
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.02
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.03
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.04
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.05
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.06
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.07
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.08
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.09
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.10
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.11
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.12
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