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Players to Buy
Justin Jefferson continues to perform at a high level despite inconsistent QB play. 4th in the NFL in target share (29%). 5th in air yards share (45%). 13th in PPG. He continues to get it done in this offense regardless of the QB. I think this kind of makes him a sneaky buy-low candidate with concerns about how his production will be when J.J. McCarthy returns. It’s certainly possible that it gets worse with the young QB back. However, there’s still a real upside case with JJ. Jefferson’s floor is so high that I think it might be worth the risk to see what his asking price is in your league.
Drake London did all of his damage in the first half back in Week 4, with 6-95-1 (RZ score) on 7 first-half targets. The Falcons’ No. 1 WR finally had the breakout game (38% target share, 40% target rate per route run) that I was hoping for when I was pumping his draft stock all offseason. London remains a buy and target if he can be acquired cheaper coming out of his bye week. I like the schedule coming up after the Falcons’ bye week (top-6 ROS). Keep in mind that the Falcons fired their previous WR coach before Week 4, in an effort to get more offensive WR production. So far, so good.
Through four games, London is the WR8 in expected PPG and PFF’s 10th-highest graded WR.
Can’t really do much with the Ravens but hold their guys. They will likely get destroyed again next week at home versus the Rams if they remain as injured as they currently are. The latest is that Lamar Jackson has an “outside shot” of playing in Week 6. Hopefully, Lamar Jackson can come healthy out of the Week 7 bye week.
But post-bye week…
It’s a SMASH spot for the Ravens offense – specifically with Derrick Henry. Bears/Dolphins. Sharp managers should be looking to buy low on Henry (presuming they have positive records and don’t need the King over the next few games).
Breece Hall played 62% of the snaps with Braelon Allen out. Isaiah Davis played 40% of the snaps. Hall did get “injured” after he fumbled toward the end of the first half but he returned to start the second half. Touches were still very much in favor of Hall over Davis (18-4). Hall also saw a goal-line carry from the 3-yard line in pursuit of his first TD score this season. Alas, stuffed for a 4-yard loss.
Even so, the bell cow usage and 100-plus yards from scrimmage for Hall make him a buy with Braelon Allen on IR (out for 8-12 weeks). After the Broncos…Hall will face the Panthers, Bengals before the bye week.
Tetairoa McMillan remains a priority buy-low target after seeing a 27% target share in Week 5 (6-73 on 8 targets with two more RZ targets). Head and shoulders above every other Panthers WR. Shown an extremely high-floor through 5 games (8-plus targets in each contest). 23% target share and 42% air yards share on the season (10th).
Dallas up next. Top-7 schedule ROS for WRs.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Trust the process. In Bill we trust! As bad as my Trey Benson “buy” call aged (like spoiled milk), buying Croskey-Merritt aged like fine wine. Full takeover in Week 5. 47% snap share and drew the start. Nearly a flawless day for the super explosive rookie RB (aside from a lost fumble) as he averaged 7.9 yards per carry and 19.5 yards per reception. Totaled 111 rushing yards and scored two TDs.
Buy good RBs. Bears/Cowboys up next. Saddle up, Bill. No.1 schedule rest of season for RBs? The Washington Commanders.
Chris Rodriguez played 25% of the snaps, and so did Jeremy McNichols. C-Rob might be annoying in red-zone situations (out-carried JCM 4-2 in the red zone). 80% of his carries came inside the 14-yard line (at the end of the game). But JCM did at least score from the 5-yard line.
The universe is doing everything in it’s power to get TreyVeon Henderson more involved. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled again. Antonio Gibson is going to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Henderson continues to be a buy – even if the statistics say otherwise. With the backfield down to just 2 RBs…(with one having a serious fumbling problem) it’s not hard to see how this works out for the rookie RB. Buy.
In Week 5, Henderson played 50% of the snaps to Stevenson’s 52% snap share. Stevenson got the red-zone touches….but we know his role is on extremely thin ice.
Assuming that Ricky Pearsall‘s health is in check…I want to buy low on him. Although he was not at the 49ers’ early week Monday practice (Jauan Jennings was there, Brock Purdy was not).
Before making a deal for Pearsall…let’s get him back to practice first. Not following for another Trey Benson fiasco. But if he’s healthy. Smash buy. Top-15 in yards this year despite battling injuries. And he is PFF’s 13th-highest graded WR.
Stefon Diggs continues to dominate in the Pats offense…after he broke out in Week 4. 10-146 on 12 targets (40% target share). He’s back to pre-injury form, and the WR1 rest of the season for New England. And he is so overdue for a TD score. He seemed to fall just short of the end zone on multiple occasions versus Buffalo despite looks near the end zone.
Patriots are BUYs because their schedule is so easy rest of the season. If you could buy-low on Drake Maye…after a zero TD game…DO IT.
Dalton Kincaid continues to deliver strong performances after strong performances. The usage is middling – 54% snap rate in Week 5 – but Kincaid’s hyper-target rate makes him fantasy viable. Being attached to Josh Allen also helps.
With the Bills’ rotation of WRs extending to four guys…Kincaid is emerging as the Bills’ pass-catcher to own. Especially given his fantasy TE designation. The Bills TE ranks 7th among all TEs in target rate per route run this season (23.5%).
Players to Sell
CMC is on pace for 442 touches through 5 weeks. What could go wrong? McCaffery’s receiving usage has been off the charts…but eventually the 49ers will get most of their starting WRs and TEs back. Consider that CMC has been bad as a rusher…right now is the time to flip him for MAX ROI. He is PFF’s 12th-lowest graded RB this season averaging 3.1 yards per carry with the NFL’s 9th-lowest success rate.
We love Cam Skattebo. He’s a fun player to cheer for. But the upcoming schedule is brutal. Eagles twice and a road game at the Broncos, wedged in between. With Tyrone Tracy also making his way back to the starting lineup (limited on Monday’s injury report)…we could see Skattebo’s role and production dip in the upcoming weeks. He is the darling of every football fan’s eye right now, but he still plays for the New York Giants. He also lost a fumble in Week 5 that was returned for a TD. Brian Daboll isn’t always kind to RBs that put the ball on the ground. And the way that he just invites contact…well, I’m not exactly confident that will necessarily last over an entire NFL season.
Alvin Kamara is still seeing red-zone touches and targets, so he still holds value. But you’d be lying as Kamara manager if you weren’t just a bit concerned about Kendre Miller‘s increased involvement.
Miller led the Saints in carries in Week 5, playing 39% of the snaps to Kamara’s 56% snap rate. Miller was also more efficient, carrying the ball 10 times for 41 yards.
But what was even more concerning was Taysom Hill stepping back into a role with 6 carries of his own on just 9 snaps played (14%). He touched the ball on 7 of his 9 offensive snaps (including a rush at the Giants’ 12-yard line).
Kamara’s targets were present here in Week 5 (6), but this number has fluctuated weekly. The Patriots’ defense has also been tough on RBs. And frankly, the Saints offense just isn’t good enough to support two fantasy RBs, let alone three different players seeing carries. Put Kamara on the trade block.
DK Metcalf buried me as a fade in Week 4 – ripping off a HUGE 80-yard catch-and-run to the house. But the facts are the facts. Through four games, Metcalf is outside the top-50 in expected fantasy points per game. 3rd-most points scored ABOVE expectation. And that’s because he owns a super low Adot (5.9) and a 20% target share (5.5 targets per game). He has scored in three straight games. Metcalf’s current usage (low-aDOT, low volume) suggests that his production will tail off dramatically. Sell high.
The Browns were a tough matchup for Jordan Mason. Luckily, he scored and only fumbled once. Even so…Minnesota is on a bye this week. Then it’s the Eagles/Chargers/Lions. By the time the schedule eases up and the offensive line gets healthy, Aaron Jones might also return. Put him on the block and see if you can get any decent returns.
The Bears’ rushing attack is anemic. I’d anticipate some kind of change to this RB room post-bye week. Swift (66% snap rate in Week 4) is being his uber-inefficient self from last season. Sell before he loses his job outright. Through four games, D’Andre Swift has the 10th-worst rushing success rate at 3.3 yards per carry (Bottom-15 PFF rushing grade). Use the TD he scored in Week 4 as a reason to ship him off.
Tyjae Spears made his return to the lineup in Week 5, but Tony Pollard remained the bell cow. 73% snap share to Spears’ 25% snap share. However, given this was Spears’ first game back – it’s not surprising that he was eased back in. He got his touch in the middle of the first quarter. Cam Ward also said (according to the game broadcast team) that “Superman’s back” when referencing the return of Spears to the lineup.
With another touch running back matchup – the Raiders – on deck for the Titans, I’d still be trying to get out of the Pollard business. After LV, it’s Patriots, Colts and Chargers before a Week 10 bye week.
If you didn’t sell David Montgomery after the Ravens game, now is the time to move him after the Lions played the Bengals. It was a great spot for him (65 rushing yards on 18 carries and 1 rushing score with another TD through the air), and the Lions fed him extra carries because it was a homecoming for the Cincinnati native
Because at this point and the rest of the season, he will be very TD-dependent. And the next two matchups are against tougher run defenses (KC and TB).
A.J. Brown did his best against Patrick Surtain (5-43 on 8 targets)…but we knew the matchup would favor DeVonta Smith‘s box score. The Slim Reaper went OFF, and had more production left on the cutting room floor (30-yard gain wiped away on a flag).
Unfortunately, the Eagles’ throwing 38 times per game isn’t the way they want to play.
Sell high on Smith with an inevitable heavy ground attack on deck for Thursday Night versus the Giants. Saquon Barkley had 6 carries in Week 5. That’s not repeating in Week 6.
Just more low ADOT (4.3) and low-value targets for DJ Moore in Week 4 culminating into a 4-38 stat line. DJ Moore managers are just keeping their fingers crossed that he gets traded at some point. Because the role Moore has in this 2025 Bears offense is lackluster at best. Moore is the WR49 in expected fantasy PPG this season.
We all wanted to know how the Arizona Cardinals’ backfield would shake out in the wake of Trey Benson‘s injury. I wrote last week about how heavy I was on the Michael Carter side of the backfield over Emari Demercado. I was proven correct. In a game where the Cardinals benefitted from mostly positive game script…until things got really off the rails, Carter was the workhorse for Arizona. 18 carries for 51 yards, and 5 catches for 22 yards on 5 targets. He led the backfield with a 57% snap rate – playing 20 more snaps (39 vs 19) compared to Demercado. Demercado had one touch in the first half (zero targets).
Does this mean Demercado’s value is nuked? Not entirely. Again, this matchup for Carter was perfect for him to gobble volume. Arizona won’t always be a touchdown-favorite at home. And FWIW, Demercado did rip off a big run for a 72-yard TD call…but it was overturned as a fumble out of the end zone…resulting in a touchback. Woof. At least in the short-term…don’t expect much from Demercado who might need to change his zip code to Jonathan Gannon’s dog house.
Demercado will have more opportunities in Cardinals’ games with negative game scripts. That being said, Carter is still the Cardinals’ RB to own until Benson returns. Worth mentioning that Zonovan Knight also scored a rushing TD (as he also earned two red-zone carries to Carter’s two red-zone carries).
Even though Carter was the lead guy…I do think there is some semblance of this being a committee of sorts ROS. Gannon was noncommittal about Carter being the starter again in Week 6, even after his blow-up on the sideline due to the Demercado fumble/touchback.
Given the upcoming matchups – Colts, Packers, and a bye week – I think Carter might be a sharp “sell-high” after you added him off waivers this past week. Keep in mind that Carter’s always going to have an expired shelf life with Benson coming back at some point in the second half of the season. Flip him to a desperate manager looking for RB production right now. Because Carter was very inefficient in his first start against a beatable Titans defense. Just 2.8 yards per carry and a 28% success rate.
According to the FantasyPros SOS tool…Arizona’s RB schedule ROS is bottom-8.
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