The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 5 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields will be popular this week, but he should have a lower rostership than players like Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones. The logic is simple here with Fields. Dallas’ defense is a disaster and has allowed an average of over 300 passing yards and 12 total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
Fields’ passing volume is still unreliable, but his rushing upside is unmatched. He offers one of the highest ceilings this week at excellent pricing and has a clear stack with Garrett Wilson.
Jared Goff (QB – DET) @ CIN | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,800*
Despite having an excellent matchup, Jared Goff should be extremely low rostered this week. The low rostership is likely due to subpar value per his salary, specifically on DraftKings. Goff is the third-highest-priced quarterback on the slate there. With plenty of strong plays below $6,000, many will bypass Goff for cheaper options.
The Bengals’ defense has been lit up all season to the point where even Joe Flacco managed 290 passing yards against them. Goff should feast on Cincinnati’s secondary and exceed his projected point total.
The perception of the Jets’ defense has been a bit slow to shift. The Jets have been a juggernaut in recent years, but there’s a clear decline in performance. Teams have been able to beat the Jets with very balanced attacks, but the Cowboys have leaned heavily on the pass.
Dak Prescott leads the league in pass attempts, and the Cowboys will likely continue to push aggressively through the air. A major factor in that push is the Cowboys’ defensive struggles. Despite leading the league in pass yardage, Prescott’s salary remains very reasonable, and rostership should be moderate.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
Due to multiple injuries at running back, this week’s main slate offers a wide variety of extremely cost-effective pricing. Rachaad White will be chalky due to sub-$5,000 pricing and excellent value on FanDuel.
However, it’s chalk that will open up salary. White’s matchup isn’t ideal, but he has excellent receiving upside and can thrive on receptions. If White hits at his salary, it’ll be tough to get around the chalk.
Woody Marks’ salary is on the rise after a breakout performance in Week 4. That rise in pricing on DraftKings will help keep his rostership low and will make him a very intriguing value play this week.
The Texans haven’t officially named Marks their starter, but he should remain a prominent piece of the Texans’ offense and has the best matchup for running backs this season. The Ravens are the friendliest matchup in the league, allowing over 30 fantasy points to opposing running backs. Marks’ salary is low enough that he’s still a strong value play this week.
Saquon Barkley hasn’t quite been himself this season. He’s failed to reach 100 yards in a single game, is struggling in yards per carry and hasn’t achieved a ceiling game. This week’s matchup against Denver is the perfect get-right game.
Denver has allowed two top-five running back finishes this year, and they are far easier to attack on the ground. The Eagles should lead with Barkley, and we’re getting a slight discount on salary, plus moderate rostership.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown will likely be one of the highest-rostered receivers on the slate, but stacking him with Jared Goff will get you different enough to get the edge in tournament play. St. Brown is setting a blistering pace early this season, leading the league in receiving touchdowns.
Even in a difficult Week 4 matchup against the Browns, St. Brown continued to dominate. St. Brown is the highest-priced receiver on the slate, but he is worth the salary.
Success against the Jets comes via touchdowns rather than volume, and that’s perfect for George Pickens. Pickens has seen an uptick in volume with CeeDee Lamb out, but his bread and butter has come from touchdowns. He has four receiving touchdowns over the past three weeks and is talented enough to pick apart the Jets’ secondary.
Nico Collins is coming off a disappointing performance against the Titans, where he had just four receptions on six targets for 79 yards. The Ravens’ defense has been torn apart in general all season, but the performances allowed to receivers have been truly outrageous: Week 1’s 100-yard Keon Coleman game, plus touchdowns to Marquise Brown, Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster last week.
Collins is in line for a strong performance. As the fifth-highest-priced receiver on the slate, his rostership should be moderate.
George Pickens and Jake Ferguson dominated the target share with CeeDee Lamb out, but Jalen Tolbert had a solid, quiet Week 4 and was the clear No. 2 WR in terms of snap count. With KaVontae Turpin dealing with a foot injury, Tolbert could see an increase in targets.
Receiving success against the Jets has leaned more towards No. 2 WRs and tight ends. Tolbert would only need a moderate increase in volume to pay off at his pricing.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (TE – WSH) @ LAC | DraftKings: $3,800/FanDuel: $5,100
The last two weeks with Marcus Mariota have been painful for Zach Ertz. However, the downtick in production gives us a slight discount on his salary, and Jayden Daniels‘ return puts Ertz back on the table. In Weeks 1 and 2 with Daniels, Ertz had nine receptions on 13 targets with two touchdowns. He should have moderate rostership and is a strong play in GPP.
Oronde Gadsden’s Week 4 performance was underwhelming after his Week 3 debut. However, while the volume was lower, he did see an increase in snaps and operated as the No. 1 TE. If Will Dissly is out again or limited, Gadsden’s pricing makes him an ideal punt play with upside.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Detroit D/ST vs. CIN | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $5,000
Detroit is pricy this week, but against the Bengals, they’re worth paying up for. Jake Browning has thrown five interceptions in just three games and failed to exceed 140 passing yards in either of the past two weeks.
The Bengals could push a bit more volume than expected as they’ll likely be chasing points. However, Browning will be under significant pressure, and Detroit should generate points through turnovers.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
