Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
- CLE -2.5, O/U 36
- Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | QB2 |
| De’Von Achane | RB | RB1 |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | RB4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR1 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | WR6 |
| Darren Waller | TE | TE1/2 |
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | QB2 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | RB1/2 |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | RB4 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | WR4 |
| Isaiah Bond | WR | WR5 |
| Jamari Thrash | WR | WR6 |
| David Njoku | TE | Out |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jaylen Waddle is the WR15 in fantasy points per game and over the last two weeks he has been the WR8 and WR17 in weekly scoring while seeing two red zone targets. He has five deep targets and ranks sixth among wide receivers in red zone targets this season. Since Week 5, he has had a 24.6% target share, a 51.9% air-yard share, 102.5 receiving yards per game (3.66 yards per route run), and a 35.6% first-read share. He faces a Browns’ secondary that has the third-highest rate of single high (61.3%). Over the last two games, against single high, Waddle has had a 33.3% target share, a 60.8% air-yard share, 4.31 yards per route run, and a 47.6% first-read share. The Browns have allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Over the last two weeks, with Dillon Gabriel under center, Fannin Jr. has had a 16.5% target share, 47 receiving yards (1.57 yards per route run), and a 17.5% first-read share. Last week, with David Njoku leaving the game with a knee injury, Fannin Jr. had a 19.2% target share, 81 receiving yards (1.88 yards per route run), and a 19.4% first-read share. Fannin Jr. could compete with Jeudy for the team lead in targets this week. He has had two red zone targets over the last two games. Miami has bled out production to tight ends, giving up the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game and yards per reception to the position.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Tua Tagovailoa is the QB24 in fantasy points per game with only one QB1 performance this season (QB9). Every other week, he has finished as the QB17 or lower in weekly scoring. Tagovailoa remains a game manager for Miami, ranking 35th in aDOT (6.7). Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 27th in yards per attempt, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in catchable target rate. Tagovailoa likely turns in another low-end QB2 performance this week against a pass defense that ranks 16th in yards per attempt and success rate per dropback and has given up the seventh-most passing touchdowns and the 13th-highest CPOE.
In Dillon Gabriel‘s two starts, he has finished as the QB19 and QB27 in weekly scoring. Gabriel has looked rough through two games. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 41st in yards per attempt, 38th in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate, and he has the 12th-highest off-target rate. Maybe he flashes a fantasy pulse this week against Miami, but Cleveland also could just choose to keep the ball on the ground and lean on their rushing attack. Miami has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the highest success rate per dropback, and the second-highest passer rating. The Dolphins are also fifth in blitz rate and 12th in pressure rate, but I’m not worried about their pass rush with the aim to get the ball out of Gabriel’s hands quickly, as he has the second-lowest time to throw.
With Dillon Gabriel under center, Jerry Jeudy has had an 18.8% target share and team-leading 24.6% first-read share, but he’s only produced 29 receiving yards and 0.71 yards per route run. He does have four red zone targets over the last two weeks, though. This could be the week that Jeudy turns the usage into actual fantasy production against a secondary that has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jeudy is a nauseating but viable flex play this week.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Darren Waller‘s route share has grown weekly. In his first game, he had only a 37% route share, but last week he was up to a 75% clip. Salutations! Waller is a full-time player in the Miami offense. Waller has a 12.8% target share, 1.86 yards per route run (39 receiving yards per game), and a 15.4% first-read share. Waller has four red zone targets in his three games played and has scored a touchdown in each game. He has two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE6). He faces a Browns’ secondary that has the third-highest rate of single high (61.3%). Against single high, he has drawn only two targets (5.1% target share) and had a 3.6% first-read share. This isn’t a great schematic matchup for him. He could save his day with another touchdown again this week, but I don’t project that he’ll roll up receiving yards in this game. Cleveland ranks 16th in receiving yards and 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
David Njoku has been ruled out for Week 7.
PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets
- CAR -1.5, O/U 41.5
- Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bryce Young | QB | QB2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | RB3 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | WR2 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | WR3 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | WR5 |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | TE2 |
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
| Justin Fields | QB | QB1/2 |
| Breece Hall | RB | RB2 |
| Isaiah Davis | RB | RB3/4 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | Out |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | WR6 |
| Arian Smith | WR | WR6 |
| Mason Taylor | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
There hasn’t been much in between for Justin Fields this season. He’s either been amazing for fantasy purposes or an abject disaster. Fields has two games against strong pass defenses with less than five fantasy points, but also this season, he has three games with at least 25.9 fantasy points. Fields has still offered plenty of production weekly, with his legs averaging 7.6 rushing attempts and 47 rushing yards with three scores on the ground. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in catchable target rate. With Garrett Wilson out this week, Fields will need to rely upon his legs to get the job done in fantasy, which is easily possible. Carolina ranks 15th in yards per attempt and 19th in success rate per dropback while giving up the tenth-most passing touchdowns and ranking dead last in pressure rate. Fields should enjoy some clean pockets this week, which hasn’t been the case this season as he’s faced the second-highest pressure rate.
Chuba Hubbard will be back this week, but I expect Rico Dowdle to lead this backfield this week. Hubbard has been extremely inefficient this season, and Dowdle absolutely crushed in his absence. The Panthers’ offense needed a spark and an identity, and Dowdle has provided that over the last two games. Dowdle has been the RB1 and RB2 overall in weekly scoring over the last two weeks, averaging 30 touches and 236.5 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 11th in explosive run rate and second in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle should have another nice week against the Jets. New York has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and they rank 17th in missed tackle rate.
Jalen Coker will be back this week. Last week, he practiced in full (quad), and the team didn’t activate him, but it looks like the plan is for him to be a full go this week. Last year, he burst onto the scene as an undrafted free agent. He earned a starting spot as the season moved along and racked up four games with at least 60 receiving yards in the process. In the six games in which Coker played at least 68% of the snaps and Bryce Young was the starting quarterback, Coker had an 18.3% target share, 55.7 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share. He averaged 11.4 PPR points per game with three top-36 weekly fantasy finishes (WR17, WR12, WR28). Coker offers immediate flex value this week against a Jets’ secondary that has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
After last week’s disappointing near goose egg for Taylor, since Week 4, he has been the TE16 in fantasy points per game with TE11 and TE8 weekly finishes in Weeks 4-5. Since Week 4, Taylor has a 22.2% target share, 44.7 receiving yards per game (1.41 yards per route run), and a 22.4% first-read share. Taylor has two red zone targets in his last three games. Taylor is back in the TE1 discussion this week against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Taylor could operate as the clear top receiving option for the Jets this week.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
The Dallas pass defense provides. Young just had his only QB1 performance of the season against Dallas as the QB12 for the week. Overall, Young is the QB26 in fantasy points per game. Among 41 qualifying passers, he’s had a rough season, ranking 36th in yards per attempt, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, 32nd in catchable target rate, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. Young should be able to post decent QB2 numbers this week against the Jets. New York has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks.
Chuba Hubbard will be back this week (calf). He was limited all week in practice until Friday (full). He doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Hubbard will likely work in a committee with Rico Dowdle this week. I don’t think Hubbard just goes away despite what Rico Dowdle has done over the last two weeks. Hubbard hasn’t been particularly effective this season, though. Yes, he’s the RB18 in fantasy points per game, but he has lived on volume with a glaring lack of efficiency. Hubbard ranks 30th in yards per touch. With his 53 carries this season, Hubbard hasn’t managed any explosive runs, and he hasn’t broken a single tackle. Hubbard is a middling flex option this week. New York has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and they rank 17th in missed tackle rate.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Breece Hall has been solid this season, but he hasn’t lived up to our draft season hope as the RB27 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 17.5 touches and 94.1 total yards. A lot of it has been out of his control. While he ranks 15th in opportunity share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and tenth in yards per touch, Hall is also 44th in red zone touches with only five this season. Among 50 qualifying backs, Hall ranks first in explosive run rate and ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt. The problem for Hall this week is that the Carolina run defense doesn’t look like the pushover matchup that it had been for much of the last season plus. Since Week 3, they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-fewest yards after contact per attempt. Hall could easily get by with volume this week, but I’m not projecting a smash game.
Tetairoa McMillan FINALLY got into the end zone (twice last week). He’s the WR28 in fantasy points per game with the eighth-most deep targets and 14th-most red zone targets among wide receivers. The worry for McMillan this week is that Sauce Gardner likely shadows him. Gardner has followed George Pickens, D.K. Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, and Mike Evans on at least 65.2% of their routes this season. Pickens and Evans secured touchdowns against Gardner, but none of those receivers surpassed 57 receiving yards in Gardner’s coverage. McMillan has a 22.4% target share with a 42.3% air-yard share while averaging 63.3 receiving yards per game (1.91 yards per route run) with a 28.5% first-read share. McMillan is still a solid bet for volume, and maybe he beats Gardner for a touchdown this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to win you your fantasy matchup in Week 7.
PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR2/3 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | WR5 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE1 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Carson Wentz | QB | QB2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB2 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 3, Jordan Mason has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 81.3 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate and tenth in missed tackle rate. Minny should lean on Mason this week. Philly has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the tenth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the 12th-highest success rate to zone runs (Mason 55.1% zone).
Dallas Goedert is running hotter than the sun with five scores in five games as the TE2 in fantasy points per game. He ranks first in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among tight ends. Goedert has a 21.3% target share, 48.6 receiving yards per game (1.66 yards per route run), and a 22.9% first-read share. Minnesota utilizes two high at the highest rate in the NFL (69.8%). Against two high, Goedert leads the team with a 23.7% target share with 1.96 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 26.1% first-read share (second on the team). Goedert should smash this week. Minny has allowed the tenth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Carson Wentz will start for Minnesota this week. In his three starts, Wentz has finished as the QB13, QB9, and QB23 in weekly fantasy scoring. He hasn’t added more than 13 rushing yards to his fantasy resume in any game. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks eighth in passing yards per game, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, 24th in catchable target rate, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Wentz should return solid QB2 production this week. The Eagles’ defense is banged up, but they still have allowed the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback, and the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns.
A.J. Brown is the WR42 in fantasy points per game. Yep, you read that correctly. He ranks 15th in deep targets and 21st in red zone targets among wide receivers. Brown has two top-24 weekly finishes this season among wide receivers (WR4, WR19). His per-route metrics aren’t horrible. Among 80 qualifying wide receivers, Brown ranks 37th in separation and 29th in route win rate. He has a 25.6% target share, 45.7 receiving yards per game (1.44 yards per route run), and a 33% first-read share. Minnesota utilizes two high at the highest rate in the NFL (69.8%). Against two high, Brown’s target share has fallen to 22.3% with 0.86 yards per route run and a 28.8% first-read share (tied for the team lead). The drop in efficiency and target share against two high is concerning for Brown, but Minnesota has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Brown could still walk away from Week 7 with a strong game, but I’m not projecting a blow-up performance.
DeVonta Smith is the WR38 in fantasy points per game with five deep targets and five red zone targets (all five in his last four games). Smith has a 20.9% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game (1.64 yards per route run), and a 26.8% first-read share. Minnesota utilizes two high at the highest rate in the NFL (69.8%). Against two high, Smith is second on the team with a 22.3% target share (tied with A.J. Brown), but he has had a strong 1.92 yards per route run to go along with his 28.8% first-read share (tied for the team lead). I expect Smith and Goedert to lead the way for the Eagles’ passing attack this week. Smith will have to overcome a tough matchup, but he has the talent to do so. Minnesota has limited slot receivers to the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest PPR points per target.
Since his return, Jordan Addison has finished as the WR21 and WR19 in weekly fantasy scoring, seeing two red zone targets (one touchdown) and three deep targets. Addison has a 16% target share with 77.5 receiving yards per game (2.04 yards per route run) and a 21.2% first-read share. In four of six games this season, Philly has utilized single high with 53.5-68.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Addison’s target share has fallen to 14% with 0.72 yards per route run and a 17.6% first-read share. Philly has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
With Carson Wentz under center, Hockenson has had a 16.2% target share with 42 receiving yards per game (1.38 yards per route run) and a 16.7% first-read share. In those three games, he has finished as the TE5, TE22, and TE18 in weekly fantasy scoring, seeing four red zone targets (one score). This is a horrible matchup for Hockenson. You might want to consider streaming a tight end this week if you have Hockenson. Philly has allowed the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends.
PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Geno Smith | QB | QB2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | RB1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Out |
| Tre Tucker | WR | WR4 |
| Jack Bech | WR | WR5 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | Out |
| Michael Mayer | TE | TE2 |
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | QB1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB4 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB5 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR1 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | WR2 |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR3/4 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since his Week 4 return, Worthy has had a 70.2% route share, a 19.4% target share, 48.3 receiving yards per game (1.67 yards per route run), and a 22.4% first-read share. In those three games, he’s had three deep targets and three red zone targets. Last year, in their two meetings with Las Vegas, the Raiders utilized single high with 53.8-57.1% of their defensive snaps. This season, in four of six games, they have utilized single high with 56.1-69.6% of their defense snaps, so I think the Chiefs will see mostly single high coverage this week. Against single high, since Week 4, Worthy has had a 21.4% target share, 3.13 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. Worthy should have a wonderful day against a secondary that has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Travis Kelce is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. Kelce has a 16.9% target share with 53.5 receiving yards per game (1.77 yards per route run), and a 21.6% first-read share. Kelce should return low-end TE1 production this week against a Raiders’ pass defense that has faced the seventh-fewest tight end targets per game but has allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception and ranks 16th in receiving touchdowns allowed to the position.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, Isiah Pacheco took over the Chiefs’ backfield. He played 77.4% of the snaps, handling 12 of 18 running back carries with a 52.6% route share (10% target share) and four of the five red zone carries. Pacheco finished with 13 touches and 51 total yards. His per-touch numbers still aren’t great, with a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.27 yards after contact per attempt. On a pass-first and pass-always offense, Pacheco’s weekly upside feels limited. Kansas City has zero interest in throwing the ball with the offense running through Patrick Mahomes and his receiving options. Pacheco could return decent flex value this week, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that. The Raiders are 19th in explosive run rate allowed and have given up the seventh-highest missed tackle rate and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Geno Smith isn’t on my fantasy viable radar this week. He has only one outing this season with multiple passing touchdowns and hasn’t surpassed 230 passing yards in a game since Week 3. Smith hasn’t managed more than 12.8 fantasy points in a game since Week 3. Smith has a 2:6 passing touchdown to interception ratio over his last three games. I think we are close to Kenny Pickett watch in Las Vegas.
Last week, Hollywood Brown had only a 52.6% route share, but he made the most of his 13.3% target share with four grabs, 45 receiving yards, and two scores. He had only a 9.5% first-read share. His usage is too volatile to trust in a flex spot this week. With Rashee Rice returning, the Chiefs’ passing attack could dissolve into a committee approach behind Rice, Worthy, and Travis Kelce. Sit Brown this week until we have some type of clarity about his role moving forward with Rice back in the huddle.
Remove Tre Tucker‘s monster Week 3 game, and he has a 15.3% target share with 42.2 receiving yards per game (1.35 yards per route run) and a 22% first-read share. In his five other games this season, he has three red zone targets and three top-36 weekly finishes (WR24, WR24, WR36). This isn’t the week to flex Tucker. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, as the Raiders’ starting tight end, Michael Mayer had an 80% route share, a 30.4% target share, 50 receiving yards (2.50 yards per route run), and a 23.1% first-read share. He had one red zone target (one score) and was the TE6 in fantasy. Mayer is a low-end streaming option only this week. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.
PIT vs. CIN | LAR vs.JAC | NE vs. TEN | NO vs. CHI | MIA vs. CLE | CAR vs. NYJ | PHI vs. MIN | LV vs. KC | NYG vs. DEN | IND vs. LAC | WAS vs. DAL | GB vs. ARI | ATL vs. SF | TB vs. DET | HOU vs.SEA
