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Players to Buy
Rashee Rice had five catches mid-way through the second quarter, but he tailed off in the second half. Still 10 targets overall for Rice (also had a drop and a short pass that fell short of the end zone, one of his 3 RZ targets). Buy low. Rice is first among all WR in XPPG this season. He is the alpha in the Chiefs’ passing game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was limited to just 2 receptions for 42 yards on 12 targets (32% target share and 57% air yards share), the 2nd-fewest receptions over expected (-4.5) by a player in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Adoree’ Jackson led the Eagles’ secondary with 11 matchups against St. Brown, allowing just 1 reception for 8 yards on 5 targets. Cooper DeJean (10 matchups) and Quinyon Mitchell (9 matchups) did not allow a reception to St. Brown, with each of them facing 3 targets in coverage. The Eagles are a tough matchup for WRs – and St. Brown felt the burn. However, take this game with a grain of salt. The Lions are still an absolute unit on offense. After a prime-time stinker, everybody is a buy low. Especially with the targets being more narrow with LaPorta on IR. Buy/hold Jameson (my buy high last week based on the increased usage with Dan Campbell calling plays) and buy St. Brown after a prime-time stinker. The Lions have a good schedule ROS for QBs. Their last outdoor game was at Philly in Week 11. Other than that…they are playing indoors until Week 18. You need at least one Lion (hopefully Jamo) on your roster ROS.
Emeka Egbuka still saw 9 targets (32% target share). Not concerned. Buy low while everybody is trying to parse the Buccaneers’ backfield.
Justin Jefferson got the targets (9, 28% target share)…but no cigar. Jordan Addison salvaged his day with a TD. The third-year WR finished with 124 incomplete air yards (49% air yards share). Regarding Addison/Jefferson, you just have to hold or even BUY. Schedule is No. 1 for WRs in the fantasy playoffs. Jefferson is WR7 in XPPFG, but WR19 in actual PPFG. Last three weeks, he has been underperforming by nearly 7 PPG. The usage: Targets, air yards, etc, are all there. We just need McCarthy to play better. And maybe it never happens this season. Very possible. @GB + @SEA next look brutal. But if Jettas can just get it together in Weeks 14-17, it was worth buying low on Jefferson before your trade deadline closed.
If someone is asleep at the wheel…buy Quinshon Judkins. The Browns have a top-6 schedule ROS for RBs. Saw 2 goal-line carries (4 red-zone attempts) but just didn’t score versus the Ravens. Judkins has two-plus targets in three straight games, with two targets coming in the second half from Sanders. The rookie RB carried the ball 17 times for 59 yards. Judkins has 19-plus RB opportunities in six of his last eight games played.
Jaylen Waddle was disappointing but this was an outlier performance. He had a bad drop that could have helped him finish with a better stat line. Regardless, still team-high 7 targets (35% target share and a 74% air yards share). Waddle has now topped 82 yards in five of his seven games this season without Hill, averaging over seven targets and 77 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (11-game sample size). He’s cemented himself as an auto-start WR1 with Hill out. Another W for Miami bodes well for Mike McDaniel’s future as the Dolphins HC for the rest of 2025. The Dolphins’ final seven games feature three at home (one internationally) — an ideal setup for fantasy production. With Achane commanding elite usage and Waddle thriving as the WR1 in Hill’s absence, this offense remains a sharp buying opportunity for savvy managers looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs. Especially with Waddle coming off a bad game during a bye week.
In Week 17 Trey McBride faces the Bengals. You might not win your fantasy football league this year if you don’t have McBride on your roster. Especially considering he can’t stop scoring TDs with Jacoby Brissett under center.
BUY Lamar Jackson. It hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. Struggled against the tough Browns defense on the road. But the schedule is salivating for him and all of his pass-catchers to get back on track from now throughout the fantasy playoffs.
Chase Brown ran 18 times for 99 yards in Week 12 against the Steelers, recording 2 explosive runs of 10+ yards. Since Week 7, Brown has the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (19.2%) of any running back with 30+ carries after having the 2nd-lowest such rate (2.7%, min. 30 carries) from Week 1-6. 26 total touches for Brown while playing 83% of the snaps without Samaje Perine. His targets and receptions have exploded over the last two games. 14 catches for 73 yards on 22 targets (25% target share). Buy Chase Brown. From Weeks 14-16, the Bengals face the Bills, Ravens, and Dolphins. Great matchups and great schedule overall for this entire Bengals offense — true across all positions. Especially if Joe Burrow does return. Baltimore might be the only matchup that is tougher in real life than on paper, given that the defense is much healthier than they were to start the season, so just keep that in mind.
Stefon Diggs is the alpha. He caught 9 of his 11 targets for 105 yards in the Patriots’ TNF win over the Jets. Against zone coverage, Diggs was targeted nine times, catching eight for 100 yards. Most of Diggs’ production came on passes thrown under 10 air yards, earning seven receptions on eight targets for 62 yards. There was a usage change here with Diggs as well that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Season high snaps (71%) and route participation (88%). If Diggs is truly becoming an every-down WR, he can challenge for fantasy WR1 status ROS. Buy high.
Rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan caught 8 of 12 passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Falcons, recording an identical 4 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown both inside the numbers and outside the numbers. McMillan was covered by A.J. Terrell on 32 of his 48 routes, catching 3 of 6 targets for 63 yards against Terrell while catching 5 of 6 targets for 67 yards and both of his touchdowns against other defenders. Got a lot of start/sit questions regarding T-Mac before Week 11, given the matchup and his lack of ceiling through 10 weeks. Hurts if you left him on the bench, but at least we have now seen a high-end outcome game for the talented first-round pick. Bodes well for him, ROS. The rookie WR is 15th in XPPG this season. Also, the Panthers have a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs (the 49ers up next).
RJ Harvey dominated the routes/targets, whereas Jaleel McLaughlin filled in the JK Dobbins role. The rookie played 61% of the snaps, whereas the other two RBs played 8 snaps apiece. Harvey’s 14 touches for 50 yards were the second-highest in a game this season. He also had 3 RZ attempts but was vultured at the goal line by McLaughlin. Buy low. Dobbins is on IR. And despite Harvey’s “underwhelming” start in his debut, the usage suggests better days ahead. Buy.
DK Metcalf had a 30-yard pass negated by an OPI call on Metcalf. 8 targets total, but just 5 for 49 yards (26% target share and 69% air yards share). It’s easy to be frustrated with DK Metcalf‘s box scores lately, but the underlying metrics still scream buy-low. He commanded a high target share again and saw 5 targets from Rudolph. He is third in points under expectation in the last three games (-16.1). Through Weeks 15-17 (Fantasy Playoffs): Dolphins, Lions, Browns — the No. 2 WR schedule per FantasyPros’ SOS tool. Just a great schedule overall for fantasy WRs. Metcalf’s peripherals suggest he’s still a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside once we get some positive regression based on his usage. With managers likely spooked by the Rodgers injury, prime time to buy low.
Sean Tucker rushed for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries against the Bills, with the majority of his production coming outside the tackles (9 carries, 80 yards, 2 TDs) via Next Gen Stats. Tucker generated two explosive runs on outside carries while also contributing in the passing game, catching both of his targets for 34 yards and a touchdown. It’s now been three weeks in a row that Tucker has seized a larger role in the Bucs’ backfield. Still, Bucky Irving is expected to return soon, but it’s unlikely he resumes his bell cow role from earlier in the season. Tucker’s emergence may impact White more than Irving. The Bucs have consistently leaned into a “hot-hand” approach, so if Irving gets going, he could really take off. If he returns less than 100%, it’s risky—but also a home-run swing for savvy managers. Weeks 16-17 feature matchups against the Panthers and Dolphins. Tampa Bay has a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs, RBs, and QBs. Buy Irving on the injury discount.
Aaron Jones totaled over 20 RB opportunities on a 67% snap rate, though Jordan Mason scored from the 16-yard line. Even so, trade for Jones. A revenge game versus Green Bay is up next. With McCarthy gaining experience, the Vikings RBs could thrive against matchups like the Ravens, Giants, Bears, and Cowboys. They’re easy bench candidates in tougher spots, but the team may lean more on the run game to ease pressure on their young QB. Center Ryan Kelly could return soon, which would help McCarthy most by handling line protections. Jones is a strong buy.
Wan’Dale Robinson was quiet but still led the team with 9 targets (31% target share and air yards share). Presuming Jaxson Dart returns—or even if he doesn’t—Robinson is a cheap scoop. Dart’s absence is hopefully just one week, and the schedule is excellent for fantasy QBs, especially in Weeks 15-17. Buy low.
Jauan Jennings remained the most involved WR, even though Ricky Pearsall made his return. Jennings has led the 49ers in WR targets over the last five games and has a real connection with Purdy. Pearsall was quiet with just one catch for zero yards on three targets, including a red-zone look from the 4-yard line. However, he played 75% of the snaps—tied with Jennings for most among SF WRs. Players returning from injury often carry boom-or-bust profiles, but Pearsall looks healthy. That makes him a screaming buy-low after a poor statistical showing. The 49ers have a fantastic playoff schedule. Get at least one Niner on your bench for the run.
The playoff schedule for the 49ers is fantastic. Whether it’s Brock Purdy or one of his discounted WRs, you’ll want a piece of this offense on your bench heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Rashid Shaheed only played 54% of the snaps but ran a route on 73% of dropbacks. He had three targets of 10+ air yards and an end-zone look but was lackluster in the box score. 56 incomplete air yards. Usage is trending up. Buy low.
Terrible game for Kyle Pitts. However, the rest-of-season schedule is favorable for Falcons TEs, especially over the next four games. If you’re hurting at tight end, Pitts might be a sneaky add if he gets dropped after back-to-back duds. Two of his targets came from Kirk Cousins, and with Drake London missing Week 12, Pitts could see a bump. He had one of his best games of the season versus Miami in Week 8 with Cousins under center (9 catches for 59 yards on nine targets). Add if desperate.
Minnesota has a solid stretch of matchups as the fantasy playoffs approach. While the next two road games look tough, the Vikings have a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs and QBs—and the No. 1 schedule for QBs. Add J.J. McCarthy. In two of his four games this season, he’s been a top-13 QB, averaging over 20 PPG. He’s also adding value as a rusher, with two rushing TDs and 48 yards last week.
Hunter Henry was so close to scoring in the red zone, but Maye’s pass was tipped at the line before the Pats TE could snag it. Pain. But don’t tilt—because the Bengals are next.
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