NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Picks & Predictions (Week 13)

The NFL Week 13 DFS main slate has some ugly contests and a decided lack of no-brainer game-stacking options, which makes for a fun slate. The first suggested game stack has a low total and a somewhat large spread. The second suggested game stack might feature a battle of journeymen backup quarterbacks. The core studs have one player from the suggested game stacks, and the values/punts also have one, leaving four players suggested in those sections who weren’t part of the game stacks.

• NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer
• NFL DFS Projected Roster Percentages
• Weekly NFL DFS Salary Changes

NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 13

Suggested Game Stacks

Game: Titans vs. Jaguars

Spread/Total: JAC -6.5/41.5 Points

The AFC South battle between the Titans and Jaguars has a pair of value options at quarterback. According to the DFS lineup optimizer, Cam Ward has the QB4 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings, and Trevor Lawrence has the QB8 value score at DraftKings and is tied for the QB6 value score at FanDuel.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Titans and Jaguars have been pass-funnel defenses of late. Since Week 8, Tennessee has faced the third-highest pass rate over expectations (9.9% PROE), and Jacksonville has faced the fourth-highest PROE (9%). Thus, Ward and Lawrence could sling the pigskin early and often. The matchup is also favorable for each of them. The Titans are tied for the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (22.3) allowed to quarterbacks and have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (22.3) to them since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are tied for the 10th-most DraftKings points per game (20.9) allowed and have ceded the ninth-most FanDuel points per game (20.9) to signal-callers since Week 8.

A pass-leaning offense for both offenses could result in a shootout. Completed passes amount to moving the football, and incomplete passes stop the clock, preventing it from being chewed up. Thus, both quarterbacks are on the radar as value selections.

Chimere Dike is an excellent stacking option with Ward or a rock-solid bring-back pick on the other side of a Jaguars stack. Since Mike McCoy took over as the interim head coach, Dike has had the following stats in five games.

• 70.1% route participation rate
• 7.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
• 16.3% air yards share
• 14.0% target share
• 0.17 targets per route run (TPRR)
• 20% first-read rate
• 19 receptions (3.8 per game)
• 226 receiving yards (45.2 per game)
• 1.60 yards per route run (Y/RR)
• Two receiving touchdowns
• Two punt return touchdowns

Dike is a dynamic player, as evidenced by housing two punts for touchdowns in the previous three games.

Brian Thomas Jr., if he returns from his ankle injury, would be a contrarian selection from this contest. BTJ hasn’t played since Week 9, but the layoff could prove beneficial after a slow start to the season, while reportedly playing through a wrist injury. The second-year pro has only flashed his upside after a massive rookie campaign, clearing 55 yards just twice. Thomas had four receptions for 80 yards against the Chiefs in Week 5 and eight for 90 and a touchdown against the Seahawks in Week 6.

The Titans are an ideal get-right spot for BTJ, and an outstanding matchup for Parker Washington as well. Tennessee has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game (42.5) and the most FanDuel points per game (35.8) to wide receivers since Week 8. Washington has emerged as a reliable weapon in Jacksonville’s passing attack, thriving since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye. In four subsequent games, Washington has had the following numbers.

• 87.7% route participation rate
• 10.5-yard aDOT
• 24.8% air yards share
• 20.2% target share
• 0.19 TPRR
• 26% first-read rate
• 18 receptions (4.5 per game)
• 214 receiving yards (53.5 per game)
• 1.88 Y/RR
• Two receiving touchdowns
• One punt return touchdown

Washington also returned a punt 87 yards for a touchdown against the 49ers in Week 4. Like Dike, Washington has a path to DFS points via a return touchdown.

Brenton Strange is another intriguing piece of the passing attack after immediately making his presence felt after returning from the injured reserve (IR) in Week 12. Strange stepped back into a 65.7% route participation rate, 21.2% air yards share, 0.22 TPRR, five targets, five receptions, 93 receiving yards and 4.04 Y/RR. Strange has reached at least 45 receiving yards and at least four receptions in four of six games this season.

The DFS optimizer is buying what Strange is selling. He’s projected as the TE8 at both sites on this week’s DFS main slate, with the TE3 value score at DraftKings and the TE5 value score at FanDuel.

Of course, the Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites. Thus, Travis Etienne could be heavily featured in a positive game script. In Jacksonville’s seven wins this year, Etienne has recorded the following statistics.

• 119 rush attempts (17 per game)
• 615 rushing yards (87.9 per game)
• 5.17 yards per carry
• Four rushing touchdowns
• 36.3% route participation rate
• 20 targets (2.9 per game)
• 0.23 TPRR
• 15 receptions (2.1 per game)
• 84 receiving yards (12 per game)
• One receiving touchdown
• 16.8 DraftKings points per game
• 15.8 FanDuel points per game

Etienne is a superb DFS selection in all game types and was nearly included among the core studs below.

Game: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals

Spread/Total: TB -2.5/43.5 Points

Baker Mayfield‘s status is up in the air while he recovers from a sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder. He’ll either suit up at less than 100%, or Teddy Bridgewater will get the nod after a week of working with the starters. Neither situation is ideal. However, a banged-up Mayfield or Teddy Two Gloves will almost certainly suppress the roster rates for Tampa Bay’s skill-position players, enhancing their appeal in GPPs.

Gamers already willing to roll the dice might as well go all the way and mix in some shares of Bucky Irving in his first game back from multiple injuries, most notably his shoulder. Irving was listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s practice. It’s unlikely he’ll immediately be thrust into a workhorse role.

Nevertheless, Irving will have fresh legs. The Buccaneers are favored, and Irving’s matchup is favorable as well. The Cardinals have allowed 119.3 rushing yards per game, 5.02 yards per carry, 25.8 DraftKings points per game (the ninth most) and 24.3 FanDuel points per game (the eighth most) to running backs since Week 8. With a dash of touchdown luck — the Cardinals have allowed six touchdowns (four rushing and two receiving) to running backs since Week 8 — and 12-to-15 touches, Irving can reward risk-tolerant gamers in GPPs. Yet I still don’t suggest using Irving outside a full-game stack or a skinny stack.

A diminished Mayfield or Bridgewater isn’t optimal for Emeka Egbuka‘s DFS outlook. Nonetheless, he’s comfortably Tampa Bay’s top pass-catching weapon. The rookie wideout will also likely have a low roster rate, as he’s cooled off after a hot start.

Fortunately, Egbuka has a favorable schematic matchup this week. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cardinals have played zone at the 12th-highest rate (75.2%), two-high coverage at the third-highest rate (56.7%) and Cover 4 at the highest rate (26.8%). Meanwhile, Egbuka has 0.27 TPRR and 2.64 Y/RR on 256 routes against zone, 0.24 TPRR and 2.52 Y/RR against two-high and 0.32 TPRR and 3.48 Y/RR on 63 routes against Cover 4.

Jacoby Brissett has been a revelation for the Cardinals. Since Brissett made his first start in Week 6, he’s led the NFL in passing yards per game (314.5), tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns (11), ranked as the QB5 in DraftKings points per game (22.4) and ranked as the QB5 in FanDuel points per game (21.9).

Brissett’s unlikely to slow his DFS roll in a plus matchup this week. The Buccaneers have coughed up the second-most DraftKings points per game (24.9) and ceded the second-most FanDuel points per game (24.7) to quarterbacks since Week 8. Brissett is projected as the QB4 at both sites, with the QB6 value score at DraftKings and the QB2 value score at FanDuel.

Trey McBride has excelled with Brissett slinging the rock. Among 112 wideouts and tight ends with at least 100 routes since Week 6, McBride is tied for 15th in target share (24.7%), first in receptions (51), fifth in receiving yards per game (87), second in end-zone targets (11), second in receiving touchdowns (six), third in DraftKings points per game (23.7) and third in FanDuel points per game (19.5). He’s unmatched at tight end, projecting as the TE1 at both outlets, with the TE2 value score at FanDuel. Moreover, McBride’s excellence makes double-TE rosters an appealing lineup construction this week.

Core Studs

• De’Von Achane is the RB2 at DraftKings and the RB3 at FanDuel, with the RB1 value score at the former and the RB2 value score at the latter. In seven games since Tyreek Hill suffered a season-ending injury, Achane has ripped off 93.4 rushing yards per game, 5.74 yards per carry, an 11.4% explosive run rate, four rushing touchdowns, 0.32 TPRR, 5.0 receptions per game, 32.4 receiving yards per game, two receiving touchdowns, 23.6 DraftKings points per game and 21.1 FanDuel points per game.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the WR1 with the WR1 value score at both DFS providers. JSN is on a crash course with the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award. Among 76 players with at least 200 routes this year, Smith-Njigba is first in air yards share (49.7%), first in target share (34.4%), tied for first in targets per route run (0.36), tied for second in receptions (80), first in receiving yards per game (119.4), first in yards per route run (4.56) and tied for fourth in touchdown receptions (seven).
• Michael Wilson has gone off without Marvin Harrison Jr. in the previous two weeks. Wilson had an 82.8% route participation rate, 11.5-yard aDOT, 53.9% air yards share, 29.9% target share, 0.33 TPRR, 32 targets, 25 receptions, 303 receiving yards, 3.16 Y/RR, 29.2 DraftKings points per game and 22.9 FanDuel points per game in the last two weeks. MHJ returned to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday, creating some volatility for Wilson if he returns this week. Still, the Cardinals can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube, and Wilson’s emerged as a legitimately excellent target earner, and his salary hasn’t caught up.

Value Plays/Punts

• Gunnar Helm has a tasty TE4 value score at DratKings. Since Tennessee’s Week 10 bye, Helm has tallied a slightly disappointing 44.1% route participation rate but also logged 0.27 TPRR, 10 receptions, 80 receiving yards and 1.95 Y/RR. The rookie tight end has done enough in his part-time role to warrant punt usage against Jacksonville’s defense. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (24.2) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (19.8) to tight ends since Week 8.
• Oronde Gadsden is a value at both DFS outlets, with the TE8 value score at DraftKings and the TE7 value score at FanDuel. Last week’s bye for the Chargers came at a good time for the rookie tight end. He suffered a bruised quad in Week 10. Gadsden fully practiced all week leading up to Week 11’s contest, but a week of recovery for the quad bruise certainly couldn’t hurt, and a breather in his rookie season could also be a plus. Gadsden can come out of the bye and dazzle against the Raiders. Las Vegas has played zone at the highest rate (84.3%), single-high coverage at the 13th-highest rate (54%) and Cover 3 at the highest rate (46.3%) this year. Gadsden has 0.22 TPRR and 2.97 Y/RR on 153 routes against zone, 0.28 TPRR and 3.61 Y/RR on 46 routes against single-high coverage and 0.28 TPRR and 3.61 Y/RR on 46 routes against Cover 3 this season.
• John Metchie has posted the better fantasy numbers among the newly acquired wide receivers on the Jets, but Adonai Mitchell has some absurd underlying data. Since Week 11, Mitchell is second on Gang Green in route participation rate (68.7%) and first in air yards share (62.5%), target share (23.6%), targets (13) and first-read rate (35.5%). In Tyrod Taylor‘s start last week, Mitchell had seven targets, two receptions and 42 receiving yards on an eye-popping 179 air yards. Additionally, the Falcons have played single-high coverage at the highest rate (64.3%) this year, and Mitchell has 0.22 TPRR and 3.16 Y/RR on 32 routes against single-high coverage this year after recording 0.22 TPRR and 3.78 Y/RR on 36 routes against it last season.

Week 13 Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Daniel Jones: 221.5 Passing Yards – Lower

Daniel Jones is having a genuine breakout campaign in Shane Steichen’s offense. He’s averaged 258.2 passing yards per game, clearing 221.5 in eight of 11 games, with a median of 262.

However, the Texans are a completely different animal, and Danny Dimes is coming off a season-low 181 passing yards against the Chiefs in Week 12. The Texans are tied for the sixth-most sacks (33) and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (195.7) this season. According to StatHead, only three quarterbacks have exceeded 221.5 passing yards against Houston this year, and the favored Colts will likely attempt to shield Danny Dimes from the fearsome matchup by feeding stud Jonathan Taylor as often as they can. Therefore, Jones should be the latest signal caller to fall short of 221.5 passing yards against the Texans.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 95.5 Receiving Yards – Higher

The most significant threat to JSN’s receiving outlook is that the Seahawks boat race the Vikings and take the air out of the ball before he can clear 95.5 receiving yards. Still, he’s averaged an NFL-high 119.4 receiving yards per game this season, with a median of 123.

Smith-Njigba has bested 95.5 receiving yards in nine games. He’s also cleared that threshold in three of four games the Seahawks won by at least 10 points this year. Finally, the Vikings have played two-high coverage at the highest rate (66.7%) this year, and JSN has barbecued two-high coverage for 0.42 TPRR and 5.23 Y/RR on 137 routes against it. Thus, we project him to have 108.2 receiving yards against the Vikings.

Oronde Gadsden: 19.5 Longest Reception – Higher

Gadsden has cleared a 19.5-yard reception in five of nine starts this season. Conversely, the Raiders have allowed Hunter Henry, Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Cole Kmet and Chigoziem Okonkwo to surpass a 19.5-yard reception against them this year. Finally, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gadsden has caught all five of his targets that traveled at least 20 air yards and nine of 15 that traveled 10 to 19 air yards, and Gadsden has run-after-the-catch ability, with 4.8 yards after the catch per reception.

Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.