New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Out |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | RB2 |
| Terrell Jennings | RB | RB3 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WR2 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | WR4 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | Out |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | TE2 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB4 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | WR1/2 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | WR5 |
| Tez Johnson | WR | WR3 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
**Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving still aren’t practicing. They have been ruled out for Week 10.**
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Stefon Diggs has touchdowns in back-to-back games that have saved his fantasy days, but his usage has been spotty since Week 6. He could be leaned on more this week if Kayshon Boutte misses the game, though. Since Week 6, Diggs has had a 67.4% route share, an 18.4% target share, 37.3 receiving yards per game, 1.57 yards per route run, and a 19.7% first-read share. In those four games, he has been heavily utilized in the red zone with six targets. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay secondary that, since Week 5, has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (61.4%). Since Week 6, against two high, Diggs has had a 22.6% target share with 2.06 yards per route run and a 27.3% first-read share. If the Bucs deploy a ton of two-high again this week, Diggs should be the focal point of the passing attack. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 5, Cade Otton has been the TE18 in fantasy points per game with one TE1 outing (TE11). Since Week 5, he has had a 19.2% target share with 59.3 receiving yards per game, 2.14 yards per route run, and a 12.5% first-read share. He hasn’t had any high leverage usage in those four games, with zero red zone or deep targets. That’s not great, but Otton still is a strong streaming option this week. New England has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Since Week 6, Tez Johnson has had an 81.1% route share, a 16.5% target share, 48.7 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. In those three games, he had a red zone target and three deep targets. This week, Johnson will face a Patriots’ secondary that, since Week 7, has had the sixth-highest rate of two high (59%). Since Week 6, against two high, Johnson has had a 19% target per route run rate and 2.08 yards per route run. Johnson is a strong flex play this week against a New England secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and ranked 17th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.
With Kayshon Boutte out this week, I think Mack Hollins and not Kyle Williams will get the biggest boost. Last week, in the first half, Hollins had a 42.9% route share that bumped to 57.9% in the second half. Yes, Kyle Williams had a 68.4% route share in the second half of the same game, but Hollins has been involved all season long, while that was the first game that Williams played more than 28.6% of the offensive snaps. Overall, Hollins has had 47.7% route share, an 8.9% target share, 1.38 yards per route run, and a 12% first-read share. Hollins is fourth on the team in red zone targets (four) and has logged two deep targets. It’s really the coverage matchup that I want to highlight here, and why Hollins could see more action this week. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay secondary that, since Week 5, has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (61.4%). Against two high, Hollins ranks second on the team with an 18% target per route run rate and 0.48 fantasy points per route run, and first in yards per route run with 2.12. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Hollins is a viable dice roll or deep league flex play this week.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Baker Mayfield has back-to-back QB2 weekly finishes (QB20, QB26) that have dropped his season-long standing to QB14 in fantasy points per game. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 13th in passing yards per game, 18th in yards per attempt, 25th in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in hero throw rate. This New England matchup doesn’t come at a great time, with Mayfield struggling some with his weaponry banged up. Since Week 5, New England has allowed the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-fewest passing yards per game, the tenth-lowest CPOE, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Since assuming the starting job in Week 5, White has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game with 16.8 touches and 65.6 total yards per game. White has been and continues to be a volume play because the efficiency hasn’t been there. He has only a 1.3% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 1.70 yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll have to overcome a horrible matchup with a New England run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the tenth-lowest rushing success rate, and the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out for Week 10. TreVeyon Henderson will lead the backfield again this week. Last week, Henderson led the backfield as the RB15 for the week. He had a 75% snap rate, 18 touches, 87 total yards, a 67.5% route share, and a 17.2% target share. Terrell Jennings out-carried him in the red zone three vs. two. Henderson remains one of the most inefficient runners in the NFL with a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.69 yards after contact per attempt. Last week, it was much of the same, even with an expanded role, as he didn’t have a single missed tackle and only 1.71 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has continued to field a strong run defense, allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and logging the ninth-highest stuff rate. Henderson is a volume-based RB2.
Terrell Jennings will help TreVeyon Henderson with the early down lift again this week with Rhamondre Stevenson out. Last week, Jennings played only 25% of the snaps with a 10% route share and a 3.4% target share. He finished with 12 touches and 44 total yards (one score) as he led the team with three red zone rushing attempts. Jennings has only a 6% missed tackle rate and 2.00 yards after contact per attempt this season. Jennings is a touchdown-dependent flex with a bad matchup. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has continued to field a strong run defense, allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and logging the ninth-highest stuff rate.
Hunter Henry is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes (TE1, TE10), but sadly, none since Week 4. Henry has a 16% target share with 40.9 receiving yards per game, 1.59 yards per route run, and a 17.5% first-read share. He has eight red zone targets and four deep targets this season. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay secondary that, since Week 5, has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (61.4%). Against two high, Henry has seen his target per route run rate drop to 15% with only 1.32 yards per route run. Don’t expect a huge game from Henry this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
LV vs. DEN | ATL vs. IND | NO vs. CAR | NYG vs. CHI | NE vs. TB | BUF vs. MIA | BAL vs. MIN | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. NYJ | ARI vs. SEA | DET vs. WAS | LAR vs. SF | PIT vs. LAC | PHI vs. GB
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 |
| James Cook | RB | RB1 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB4 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | RB4 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR3 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR4/5 |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | WR6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE1 |
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | QB2 |
| De’Von Achane | RB | RB1 |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | RB4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR1/2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR4 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | WR5 |
| Tanner Conner | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Khalil Shakir is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 20.5% target share with 49.9 receiving yards per game, 2.06 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. He leads the team with eight red zone targets while also seeing three deep targets. This week, he faces a Miami secondary that has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (57.9%). Since Week 2, against two high, Shakir ranks second on the team with a 31% target per route run rate and 1.88 yards per route run. Since Week 5, Miami has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers. Shakir is a strong flex this week.
The Dalton Kincaid breakout season is upon us. He is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with a paltry 51.9% route share, but he’s producing on a per-route basis. Kincaid has a 16.3% target share, 58.7 receiving yards per game, 3.34 yards per route run, and an 18.3% first-read share. He has five red zone targets and four deep targets. In Week 3, he secure five of his six targets against this defense with a score and 66 receiving yards to finish as the TE4 for the week. He could easily produce a similar stat line this week. This week, he faces a Miami secondary that has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (57.9%). Against two high, Kincaid leads the team with a 34% target per route run rate and a whopping 3.61 yards per route run. Across the last five weeks, Miami has allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
N/A
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Tua Tagovailoa is the QB31 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weeks this season. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 26th in passing yards per game, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Bench him this week. Since Week 5, Buffalo has allowed only one passing touchdown, the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Tagovailoa will struggle this week.
Keon Coleman is droppable. Since Week 2, he has had only a 15.8% target share with 24.6 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and two red zone targets. This week, he faces a Miami secondary that has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (57.9%). Since Week 2, against two high, Coleman has had a 14% target per route run rate and 0.82 yards per route run. If you wish to continue to roster him, sit him this week. Since Week 5, Miami has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 5, Washington has been the WR65 in fantasy points per game, with one outing with double-digit PPR points (13.6 in Week 8). Across his last five games, he has had a 62.3% route share, a 15% target share, 27.2 receiving yards per game, 1.19 yards per route run, and a 16.1% first-read share. During that span, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. Don’t flex Washington this week. Since Week 5, Buffalo has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Washington 49.1% slot rate).
LV vs. DEN | ATL vs. IND | NO vs. CAR | NYG vs. CHI | NE vs. TB | BUF vs. MIA | BAL vs. MIN | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. NYJ | ARI vs. SEA | DET vs. WAS | LAR vs. SF | PIT vs. LAC | PHI vs. GB
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
| Justice Hill | RB | RB4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR2 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR3/4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | WR5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE1/2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE2 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | QB1/2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB3 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2/3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
In J.J. McCarthy‘s two healthy starts this season, he has finished as the QB11 and QB13 in weekly fantasy scoring. In those two games, he had 6.36 yards per attempt, a 10.1% CPOE, a 75.6% catchable target rate, an 8.9% hero throw rate, and 0.78 fantasy points per dropback. Overall, this season, among 41 qualifying passers, those numbers would rank 30th, fifth, 22nd, first, and second. Not too shabby, Mr. McCarthy. Not too shabby. McCarthy still has plenty to improve upon, but those numbers are quite encouraging. He should flirt with QB1 numbers again this week. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest success rate per dropback, the 11th-highest CPOE, and ranked 15th in yards per attempt.
Zay Flower is the WR23 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 28.4% target share with 68.8 receiving yards per game, 2.42 yards per route run, and a 33.6% first-read share. He has only four red zone targets this season, but nine deep targets (leads the team). This week, Flowers faces a Minnesota pass defense that has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (69.7%) and the second-highest blitz rate (40.6%). Against two high, Flowers’ yards per route run have dipped to 1.66, and his target per route run rate has dropped to 21% (second on the team). Against the blitz, he has feasted with a 31.3% target share, 3.29 yards per route run, and had a 31.9% first-read share. These splits will balance themselves out, and I project Flowers to have a strong day against a secondary that has struggled recently against perimeter receivers and downfield passing. Since Week 5, Minnesota has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and the second-highest deep completion rate and deep passing yards per game.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Aaron Jones sustained a shoulder injury last week. He has been listed as questionable for this week after limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday. Jones is active this week. Last week, Jones played 42.4% of the snaps, but in the first half, he had a 76.7% snap rate. I expect him to lead the backfield this week, but he might not see that heavy of a workload with the shoulder not at 100%. Last week, Jones had 11 touches and 98 total yards. This season, Jones has a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.00 yards after contact per attempt. Jones is a strong flex this week. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and logged the lowest stuff rate.
Last week, Mason finished with a 59.3% snap rate, but it’s deceiving, as he had only a 26.7% snap rate in the first half of the game. Aaron Jones sustained a shoulder injury last week, which bumped up Mason’s usage. I expect Mason to be the 1B in the backfield this week. Mason should see 8-12 touches this week in a good matchup. He’s a middling flex play that really needs a touchdown to pay off this week. Mason has an 18% missed tackle rate and 2.21 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and logged the lowest stuff rate.
Last week, in his first game with J.J. McCarthy under center, Addison had a 16% target share (four targets), a 41.3% air-yard share, and a 26.7% first-read share. He led the team with three deep targets and finished with two receptions and 48 receiving yards. This week, he faces a Baltimore secondary that has the fourth-highest rate of single high (60.3%). Against single high, Addison has seen his target per route run rate dip from 19% (overall) to 15% and his yards per route run fall from 2.04 (overall) to 1.49. It’s a great matchup for Addison, so maybe that balances out the coverage concerns I have, but I’m still not expecting a monster game this week. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the 14th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Rashod Bateman is a viable deep league flex play this week. Bateman has a 13% target share, a 21.1% air-yard share, 23 receiving yards per game, 1.03 yards per route run, and a 12.7% first-read share. He is third on the team in deep targets, and that’s where his upside comes into play this week. Minnesota has recently struggled to defend perimeter wide receivers and deep passing. If Lamar Jackson hits Bateman on a downfield target or two, it could help him pay off as a flex option this week. Since Week 5, Minnesota has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and the second-highest deep completion rate and deep passing yards per game.
Mark Andrew is only the TE20 in fantasy points per game, but even that is false window dressing. It is being held up by his two games with two touchdowns where he finished as the TE2 and TE5 for the week. Andrews amassed all of his touchdowns for the season in those two games. Overall, he has a 15.9% target share with 28.8 receiving yards per game, 1.50 yards per route run, and a 20.1% first-read share. Andrews could flirt with TE1 production again this week. Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
In T.J. Hockenson‘s two games with J.J. McCarthy, he has had a 15.6% target share, 13 receiving yards per game, only 0.62 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. The touchdown saved his day last week, but I don’t know if we can count on that weekly. Baltimore has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-highest yards per reception to tight ends, but they have also given up the tenth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to the position. Hockenson could finish the week as a TE1, but I would weigh streaming options versus him this week.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
N/A
LV vs. DEN | ATL vs. IND | NO vs. CAR | NYG vs. CHI | NE vs. TB | BUF vs. MIA | BAL vs. MIN | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. NYJ | ARI vs. SEA | DET vs. WAS | LAR vs. SF | PIT vs. LAC | PHI vs. GB
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
- JAC -0.5, O/U 37.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | RB4 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | Out |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR5 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Johnny Mundt | TE | TE3 |
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Davis Mills | QB | QB2 |
| Woody Marks | RB | RB3 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB3 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR4 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | WR5 |
| Jayden Higgins | WR | WR6 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR | WR6 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Dalton Schultz is a strong streaming option this week, even with Davis Mills under center. Last week, he finished as the TE7 for the week with Mills playing most of that game. Schultz has a 17% target share with 48.1 receiving yards per game, 1.75 yards per route run, and an 18.6% first-read share. He has three red zone targets and one deep target this season. The Jaguars are a wonderful matchup for him. They have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Davis Mills will draw the start this week for Houston with C.J. Stroud still in the concussion protocol. Last week, in relief of C.J. Stroud, Mills completed only 56.7% of his 30 passing attempts for 4.5 yards per attempt and 137 yards. He had zero passing touchdowns and interceptions. He had a 50% highly accurate throw rate and only a 63.3% catchable target rate. 30% of his passes were deemed off-target. Ok, none of that is good. None of it, but let’s give it some context. It was against Denver. One of the best pass defenses in the NFL. That isn’t to excuse Mills’ performance, but it’s understandable. This week’s matchup is much more giving. It could allow Mills to outperform expectations as a decent streaming option for deeper leagues. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 12th-highest CPOE. Mills won’t give you anything with his legs, so he’s gonna have to get it done through the air.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Trevor Lawrence is the QB17 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this season. He has had two such performances in the last four weeks (QB5, QB12). Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, 13th in catchable target rate, and 31st in hero throw rate. In two of Lawrence’s QB1 performances, he has managed two rushing scores. I’m not saying that it is totally flukey…ok, well maybe I am. No one should be expecting two rushing scores from Lawrence in any week. Lawrence is a sit this week. Houston’s pass defense has been nasty. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fewest passing yards per game, the lowest success rate per dropback, the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, and the sixth-lowest CPOE.
Travis Etienne is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share, 19th in opportunity share, and eighth in red zone touches. He has averaged 17.3 touches and 88.7 total yards. Among 62 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and 24th in missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. Etienne will be sledding uphill this week. Since Week 5, Houston has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. He’ll need a ton of volume and possibly a score this week to pay off.
Woody Marks will work in tandem with Nick Chubb again this week. Since Week 7, he has finished as the RB16, RB14, and RB47 in weekly scoring, averaging 12.6 touches and 57.7 total yards. He has a solid 4.5% explosive run rate, but only a 4% missed tackle rate and 2.18 yards after contact per attempt. Marks is a volume play with a bad matchup. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest explosive run rate.
Nick Chubb will split the work with Woody Marks again this week. Since Week 7, he has averaged 12 touches and 38 total yards with a 26.7% snap rate. Chubb has only a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.14 yards after contact per attempt this season. He’s a low-end touchdown-dependent flex play this week. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest explosive run rate.
Across his last two games, Parker Washington has had a 23.2% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, 71 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 25.9% first-read share. In those contests, Washington had two red zone targets and five deep targets. Washington will remain a volume-driven flex play this week. He has a horrible matchup this week against a Texans’ pass defense that has allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
The newest Jags’ receiver isn’t flex-worthy this week. With a short timetable for him to learn the offense and build rapport with his new quarterback, he is likely only a part-time player this week with a bad matchup. Meyers will have flex-worthy weeks moving forward, but this isn’t one of them. Houston has allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
**The only receiving options I want to play from Houston this week are Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. The rest of the wide receiver room is an unproductive committee as Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins have been placed back on the shelf with Christian Kirk back and the coaching staff’s insistence to trot out Xavier Hutchinson.**
LV vs. DEN | ATL vs. IND | NO vs. CAR | NYG vs. CHI | NE vs. TB | BUF vs. MIA | BAL vs. MIN | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. NYJ | ARI vs. SEA | DET vs. WAS | LAR vs. SF | PIT vs. LAC | PHI vs. GB
