Projecting the First Round of 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts

It’s January, which means two things in fantasy football. We’re wildly early, and we’re already arguing about the first round.

On the latest FantasyPros podcast, Joey P, Jake Ciely, and Andrew Erickson walked through an early projection of the 2026 first round of fantasy football drafts. Not just rankings, but process. The biggest takeaway wasn’t who went first. It was why certain players keep separating themselves while others are already carrying red flags.

Fantasy Football Predictions: 2026 First-Round Draft Picks

Here’s how the early 2026 first round is taking shape and what fantasy managers can take away as they prepare for their drafts.

Projected 2026 Fantasy Football First Round (Picks 1-12)

Here are the consensus first-round rankings from our analysts.

First-Round Bubble (Just Missed Top-12 Picks)

Fantasy Football Analysis

Bijan Robinson Is the Clear Early 1.01

If you’re looking for consensus, this is where it starts.

Bijan Robinson was the only player all three analysts were comfortable putting at or near the top of the board. The reasoning was simple. Elite talent. Youth. No meaningful competition for touches. And unlike other high-end running backs, his profile doesn’t require squinting past age or workload concerns.

Even with Tyler Allgeier siphoning touches in 2025, Robinson delivered weekly consistency and still hasn’t shown his true ceiling. If Atlanta moves toward a more consolidated backfield in 2026, Bijan becomes the rare RB who can anchor a roster without forcing uncomfortable structural decisions later.

The Elite WR Tier Is Smaller Than You Think

The wide receiver conversation was where the debate got spicy.

Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were repeatedly discussed as the top WR tier, but not without caveats.

Puka’s weekly dominance is undeniable, but durability and Matthew Stafford‘s future loom over his long-term projection. Chase offers elite touchdown equity, but his historical points-per-game profile sits closer to the WR2 range than many remember outside of his true spike season.

JSN may be the most interesting case. With Seattle’s offense funneling targets his way and Sam Darnold stabilizing quarterback play, Smith-Njigba profiles as a volume-driven fantasy monster. If offensive continuity holds, he could legitimately push for the WR1 overall outcome.

What’s notable is who didn’t feel locked in. This was not a year where five or six wide receivers felt “safe” at the top.

Christian McCaffrey Is the Most Polarizing Player in Fantasy

No player generated more airtime than Christian McCaffrey.

The divide was sharp. On one side, the argument that even a 20% production drop still leaves McCaffrey as a top-five RB. On the other, historical workload data, age-30 risk, and late-season efficiency decline.

What matters for fantasy managers is not picking a side today. It’s understanding that McCaffrey will be a polarizing player in 2026 fantasy football drafts. He could go fourth overall or slide to the back of Round 1. Both outcomes are defensible.

That volatility makes him a draft-defining decision.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Still Doesn’t Get Enough Respect

One of the clearest pushbacks came around Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Despite three straight elite seasons and an unmatched weekly floor, St. Brown continues to get pushed behind flashier names. His supporters made the case plainly. He shows up every week. He dominates targets. He scores. And he has fewer situational question marks than almost anyone else in the first round.

If fantasy drafts were purely about minimizing risk, Amon-Ra would live comfortably inside the top five.

The First Round Is Tilting Back Toward Running Backs

A subtle but important trend emerged. Running backs are creeping back up.

Players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and De’Von Achane all landed in or near first-round conversations.

The reason isn’t nostalgia. It’s math. Over the last several seasons, more running backs than wide receivers have finished inside the top 12 at their position. Meanwhile, WR scoring has flattened, making replacement-level production easier to find.

That doesn’t mean Zero RB is dead. It means structural draft edges are shifting again.

No Tight End Is Worth a First-Round Pick Right Now

Despite elite production from Trey McBride, no one felt compelled to push a tight end into Round 1.

The position is deeper than it’s been in years. Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, and Harold Fannin Jr. all flashed. Paying a premium no longer guarantees separation.