Shake-ups in average draft position (ADP) are happening now that we finally have real news to base decisions on. Malik Nabers is creeping towards the second round. Drake London is sliding, but nobody seems to know why. Much more will happen in the coming days. Staying dialed in is your biggest advantage in August as we begin to plan for our fantasy football drafts. If you have the 1.04, this is your ultimate draft guide strategy. Get ready with a fantasy football mock draft.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Pick 1.04
Players to Consider at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
These players will likely be available when you make your selection:
- Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
- Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
- Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
It’s fair to assume at least one of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs will be gone, if not both, as they’re the consensus top two picks. There isn’t a clear consensus choice at 1.01, but both players are strong selections.
If either should fall to the 1.04 pick, they’re incredibly easy picks. Ja’Marr Chase typically goes inside those first three picks, and then the flatter tier of secondary talent unfolds.
Players to Target at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
Let’s be clear: If Ja’Marr Chase falls to the 1.04 pick, he’s a very easy selection. The Bengals might have slightly improved their defense, but they’re unlikely to become a unit that consistently allows them to move away from the passing game, and that continues to be excellent news for Ja’Marr Chase.
For two consecutive seasons, Chase has led the league in targets with 175 and 185, respectively. Chase also has two years with 1,400+ receiving yards, and his consistency is worth paying for. Much of Chase’s ceiling is tied to Joe Burrow‘s health. In games with Burrow at quarterback since Chase was drafted, he averages 0.78 touchdowns and 20.67 PPR points. In the games without Burrow, those numbers drop to 0.33 touchdowns and 15.48 points.
Those aren’t terrible numbers, but the lack of touchdowns hurts. Burrow is fully healthy this offseason, and the ceiling is the name of the game at the top of the draft. Lock in Chase for another WR1 overall season.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
Off the field, Puka Nacua hasn’t had a great offseason, and the Rams seem to be slightly hesitant to extend him, with reports suggesting that’s not in their immediate plans despite Nacua being extension-eligible and watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the market.
Things can change quickly, but for now, it sets Nacua up for what should be a massive prove-it year, both on and off the field. Nacua is coming off a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns, which, until 2025, had been the only area of his game that lacked, having scored nine in the previous two seasons combined. Perhaps with an improved defense, the Rams won’t be quite as pass-heavy this year, but Sean McVay has nearly always been aggressive. As long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, Nacua deserves to be a top-five pick.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
Recently, this humble writer has been deliberating long and hard about moving Amon-Ra St. Brown ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and there are reasons to consider it. When you draft St. Brown, you have a pretty solid idea of what you’re getting.
St. Brown has recorded 119+ targets in every one of the five seasons he’s played in the NFL and scored double-digit touchdowns in each of the last three. Perhaps the ceiling gets capped slightly if Jameson Williams trends upwards and Sam LaPorta is healthier, but the Lions were bad last year, and the most important thing is that they might have a competent play-caller once again in Drew Petzing, who said they want to lean into what Jared Goff does best by using play action heavily.
That would be a bonus for St. Brown, who has consistently been tops in first-read target share on play action on the Lions. St. Brown has been a top-three receiver in each of the last seasons in fantasy points per game, and has never fallen out of the top five in total points during that period.
Some might see St. Brown as a high-floor option, but it’s fair to point out that not much more would need to swing his way for a WR1 overall finish.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
It was a truly special year for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the league in receiving yards (1,793) and helped the Seahawks reach the Super Bowl. He also scored 10 touchdowns and was targeted a whopping 163 times (119 receptions).
The only cause for concern is that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, which could lead to a dip in Sam Darnold‘s efficiency.
The positive side, though, is that the team didn’t make any massive additions at receiver, aside from bringing back Rashid Shaheed. Seattle let Kenneth Walker III go despite Zach Charbonnet still recovering from his ACL injury. If Charbonnet isn’t back and rookie Jadarian Price can’t adapt to the NFL quickly, could we see even more volume for Smith-Njigba?
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
In best ball, this might seem unlikely, but in redraft, we constantly see running backs pushed up higher, so if you’ve been drafting a lot of best ball teams, get ready to see Christian McCaffrey going this high.
McCaffrey is coming off a very poor season by his lofty standards, rushing for 3.9 yards per carry, his lowest mark since 2020 in Carolina. This ranked 48th among running backs with 50+ rush attempts, while also ranking 47th in yards after contact per attempt and 29th in missed tackles forced.
But for fantasy purposes, that simply didn’t matter, as McCaffrey saw 129 targets, more than A.J. Brown, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen or Zay Flowers had. McCaffrey was the RB1 in points per game, scoring 2.5 points more than the RB2. Even though he just turned 30, McCaffrey still represents one of the biggest upside picks. If you’re not first, does it matter where you finish?
Players to Avoid at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Another tough fade for this selection is Jonathan Taylor, who, according to teams synced to our FantasyPros tools, led all players in playoff advance rate (66.8%). Simply drafting Jonathan Taylor gave you a two-in-three chance of making the playoffs.
Sadly, though, that wasn’t the whole story.
Taylor was the fantasy RB4 in points per game, but from Week 12 onwards, he was the RB21, with an explosive run rate of 0.7% (41st), and he ranked 36th in yards after contact, while scoring only three rushing touchdowns. Of course, much of this inefficiency came amidst quarterback turmoil as Daniel Jones got beaten up and eventually tore his achilles.
If you’re that vulnerable to poor quarterback play, do you deserve to be drafted with the third overall pick when your quarterback is coming off said achilles injury and is also named Daniel Jones? Despite the new contract, this is too rich for Taylor.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
In a world where George Pickens had hit the open market, or was traded by the Cowboys this offseason, instead of signing his franchise tag tender, CeeDee Lamb could have been back in the top two wide receiver conversation.
We know that Lamb has the talent and environment necessary to succeed, but Pickens has slightly capped Lamb’s upside. Lamb posted the second-lowest numbers of his career in targets, receptions and yards, with only his rookie season in 2020 worse. He also had a career-low three touchdowns.
Pickens saw a 22.1% red-zone target share compared to Lamb’s 18.6%, which was also behind Jake Ferguson, who led the team with a 23.1% red-zone target share.
Lamb’s red-zone target share in 2024 was 27.7%, leading the team by 10%. In 2023, it was 28.8% and also led the team by 10%. It’s clear where Lamb needs to bounce back to return to the highest tier of wide receivers.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
We’re most likely looking at a wide receiver from this selection, with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs the favorites for the top two picks and only Christian McCaffrey the other running back seriously in play here.
Starting WR/WR with Drake London or Nico Collins in round two could let you lean into Zero RB with an elite tight end such as Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. You could also add a running back such as Breece Hall or Jeremiyah Love.
Either start can work, but it’s good to know that running back tends to dry up quicker than usual this year, and only having one wideout through three rounds can leave your wide receiver room struggling to catch up.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft From the 1.04 Pick
We used our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator to show you an example of a draft from the 1.04 position. You can sync your league for free and mock draft against your fantasy football league settings to better prepare for your draft. Here’s how our fantasy football mock draft went from the 1.04 position.
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