Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
J.T. Realmuto
PHI
Realmuto fractured the thumb on his throwing hand in mid-February, and is iffy for Opening Day. He is in a tier to himself among catchers when healthy, putting up consistently excellent numbers in what is the thinnest of positions. He had the highest barrel rate and hard hit percentage of his career in 2020, and also walked at a career-best pace. Realmuto is in his age-30 season, so that's getting near the point where catchers begin to decline. But given that he's shown no real slippage in his skills to this point, his numbers shouldn't fall off much in 2021, assuming he has no setbacks and returns on or around Opening Day. Back with Philadelphia now and for several years after signing a five-year contract, Realmuto is the only catcher worth drafting before the sixth or seventh round.
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2.
Salvador Perez
KC
Perez returned from missing all of the 2019 season to put up monstrous numbers. He batted .333 with 11 home runs in just 37 games. Sure, his meager walk rate became even worst and he struck out more than ever, but his strong numbers were absolutely earned. He had an expected batting average of .325, an expected slugging percentage of .624, and barreled baseballs at a significantly higher rate than he ever had before. Perez will be 31 years old this year this year but considering that he's had just 156 plate appearances combined over the past two years (after having one of the heaviest workloads for a catcher over the previous six seasons), he should have some gas left in the tank. Draft him as a top-three catcher without hesitation.
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3.
Willson Contreras
CHC
Contreras has established a pretty decent baseline for what fantasy managers can expect over the course of a full season. He'll likely give you a floor of 15 home runs and 110 combined runs and RBI, with upside for more. Those numbers don't sound impressive, but they're enough to make Contreras a top-five catcher easily. Given his safety, there's an argument to be made to take him as high as second overall at the position. But, even so, there's no need to select him before the eighth round or so, as there's not an appreciable difference in the production of the next seven or eight catchers beyond J.T. Realmuto.
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4.
Will Smith
LAD
Smith had an outstanding 2020 season, walking a ton, striking out little, and getting on base at higher than a .400 clip. The power he showed in his 54-game stretch in 2019 remained, and he ranked in the top 10% of the league in wOBA, expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage. Given how the Dodgers play the entire season with an eye toward the playoffs, as well as the presence of Keibert Ruiz, it's possible that Smith may get more rest than other catchers this year. But that's a minor point against someone who should be one of the top options at his position. He's no worse than a top-five catcher, and there's a good argument that he should be the second player selected at his position.
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5.
Yasmani Grandal
CWS
Grandal is getting up there in age for a catcher, and there were a few warning signs for the veteran. He struck out nearly 30% of the time last season, well above his typical rate, and his expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA were some of the worst of his career. At the same time, he continued to walk at a near-elite clip, and again provided plenty of power from a position where pop is hard to find. The good news for Grandal is that both his large contract and his elite pitch framing skills should keep him in the lineup as often as possible, which will help to pad his counting stats, though his recovery from a knee injury may cause Chicago to take it easy with him at the outset. He's just a tad outside of the elite range at the position, but he's a locked in fantasy starter.
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6.
Travis d'Arnaud
ATL
It took a long time but d'Arnaud has finally developed into one of the best hitting catchers in the game, as he was projected to be. It's difficult to quite buy what we saw last year, considering d'Arnaud's batting average (.321) and slugging percentage (.533) were miles ahead of his career marks, and even the numbers that he had put up in recent seasons. With that said, he'll bat in the middle of a strong Braves lineup and be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities, so 15 home runs with 55 RBI should be considered the floor for a healthy d'Arnaud. Those numbers aren't just passable, they're extremely strong for a catcher in fantasy, and he should be drafted as a relatively strong first catcher in mixed leagues.
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7.
Gary Sanchez
NYY
If you want to credit last season's numbers, then you're going to avoid Sanchez like the plague. He batted a ridiculous .147 and struck out 36% of the time. When Sanchez did hit the ball, he still hit it really, really hard, like he always has. But he just simply can't stop himself from swinging (13.8% swinging strike rate), and especially from swinging outside the zone (31.5% O-Swing%, which was actually better than his career rate). It wasn't that long ago that Sanchez was one of the top catchers drafted, and he's still just 28 years old. If he can just cut down on his whiffs, he can easily be a top-five catcher, so buy him for his upside, while also making sure to focus on batting average elsewhere.
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8.
Christian Vazquez
BOS
Vazquez was a late bloomer, but he's developed into one of the more reliable catchers in the game. Not only does he provide 20-homer power, but he's one of the best assets at catcher in both batting average and stolen bases. Entering his age-31 season, there's certainly the possibility for a major decline in his numbers, but there is little in his underlying metrics to suggest it is imminent. Draft Vazquez as a strong starter in single-catcher formats, and you won't need to do so before the double-digit rounds.
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9.
James McCann
NYM
McCann will be the everyday catcher for the Mets after putting up his second consecutive successful season for the White Sox. After putting up a .789 OPS in 2019, he jumped up to an .896 mark in 2020, setting a career-high in walk rate. McCann was a part-timer last year, so his rate stats will likely dip as he takes over a heavy workload with the Mets (Wilson Ramos ranked fourth among catchers in plate appearances the last two seasons). But counting stats should be there in spades in a strong Mets lineup. He should be drafted as a starting catcher in 12-team formats.
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10.
Sean Murphy
OAK
Murphy has pretty quietly put together two quality seasons in a row, albeit in limited samples. Over his past 63 games, he's put up 11 home runs, 35 runs scored, and 22 RBI, a pace that is more than respectable, even if it comes with a sub-par batting average. Murphy is dealing with a collapsed lung and may not be ready for the start of the season, but it doesn't sound like it will keep him out of action for long. He's a borderline starter in most mixed leagues, but he offers a decent floor if you miss our on more quality options.
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11.
Mitch Garver
MIN
As quickly as Garver exploded onto the scene in 2019 with 31 home runs in just 93 games, he disappeared last year, to the tune of a .167 batting average and two home runs with a 45.7% strikeout rate. An intercostal strain led to his shortened season and almost certainly affected his performance. He's been red hot in the spring thus far, and should be slowly moving up your draft board. If you're looking for a catcher who has the potential to finish within the top-5 but is being drafted only as a low-end starter, this is your guy.
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12.
Austin Nola
SD
Nola has proven to be a quality bat for a catcher over the last two seasons, batting .271 with 17 home runs in 127 games over that span. He's in a great situation with the Padres, even if he will be batting at the bottom of the lineup, but a fractured finger will likely lead him to begin the season on the IL. Depending on how much time he'll miss, that could create a buying opportunity, as his ADP should drop a bit. As long he isn't projected to miss more than a couple of weeks, take the discount and enjoy premium production from the catcher position for the rest of the season.
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13.
Buster Posey
SF
Posey sat out the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic and concern for the health of his adopted daughters, but he returns this year for what is almost certainly his final season with the Giants and perhaps his career. Posey is in his age-34 season, ancient for a catcher, and he's coming off two seasons during which he totaled a .741 OPS and a .688 OPS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. But he's healthy and appears refreshed, and the changes to Oracle Park last year should work in his benefit now. He's outside the top-12 catchers, but you can get away with him in a one-catcher league in a pinch.
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14.
Yadier Molina
STL
The ageless wonder is back for another year in St. Louis as he enters his age-39 season. Molina isn't what he once was - the token stolen bases are gone and his runs scored continue to decline. But he has yet to fall off a cliff in either batting average of power, and his numbers there are still mildly enticing for a catcher. The run is going to end some day, perhaps this year, but the cost is that of a middling second catcher, and his track record suggests he'll again be worth that price.
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15.
Carson Kelly
ARI
After an impressive 2019 season during which he hit 18 home runs in just 111 games, Kelly had a down 2020, batting just .221 with five long balls. Kelly's walk rate regressed significantly to just 4.7%, and he showed little of the patience that brought him success in 2019. Daulton Varsho is a threat to his playing time, but it seems like Kelly will have the lead role behind the plate, with Varsho filling in and getting time at outfield. That should make Kelly a borderline startable catcher in most mixed leagues, assuming he can bounce back from his down 2020 campaign.
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16.
Jorge Alfaro
MIA
Alfaro batted just .226 in 2020, but he hit .262 from 2018-2019, along with 28 home runs in 238 games. He has been criticized for his defense, but he reportedly worked on it during the offseason and has received some praise this spring. After flirting with trade talk, the Marlins look like they'll stick with Alfaro, and his bat plays well enough to make him a high-end second catcher in mixed leagues. The stardom that some projected may never come, but he'll likely be fantasy-relevant in 2020.
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17.
Wilson Ramos
CLE
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18.
Alejandro Kirk
TOR
Kirk has the bat to to be a fantasy asset if he can stay in the lineup, particularly with catcher eligibility. He is a career .315 hitter with a .918 OPS in the minors, and had a strong, albeit short, stint in the majors last year during when he had a .983 OPS in nine games. The biggest obstacle for Kirk is that the Blue Jays have two solid defensive catchers in Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, and although they could put Kirk at DH, they have plenty of other options for that position. In other words, Kirk needs to hit and hit early to cement a lineup spot. If he does, he's got top-10 catcher potential pretty easily.
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19.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
TEX
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20.
Danny Jansen
TOR
Jansen's playing time is uncertain this year with the presence of both Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk, but his defense is likely to keep him in the mix as a starter most games. He hasn't developed into the offensive force most thought he would become, and his average has been downright dreadful. But he's put up 19 home runs and 59 RBI over 150 games in the last two seasons, and the Toronto lineup is incredibly strong. If he wins the job outright out of spring training, he should be considered a fairly strong second catcher.
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21.
Yan Gomes
OAK
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22.
Daulton Varsho
ARI
Varsho was optioned to Triple-A, which was mildly surprising, though not entirely unexpected. He saw plenty of action between catcher and the outfield last year for the Diamondbacks, and although he batted just .188, he hit three home runs and stole three bases. That may not sound like much but for a catcher-eligible player in 37 games, it's plenty. Varsho was optioned less because of his talent level and more because the Diamondbacks' roster is pretty full, especially with the signing of Asdrubal Cabrera,. There's a ton of potential for Varsho, given that he was a high-average hitter during his minor-league career, but fantasy managers will need to wait a bit longer for him to become someone to start in fantasy leagues.
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23.
Omar Narvaez
MIL
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24.
Tom Murphy
SEA
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25.
Ryan Jeffers
MIN
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26.
Pedro Severino
BAL
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27.
Max Stassi
LAA
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28.
Jacob Stallings
PIT
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29.
Kurt Suzuki
LAA
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30.
Francisco Mejia
TB
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31.
Elias Diaz
COL
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32.
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
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33.
Tucker Barnhart
CIN
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34.
Roberto Perez
CLE
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35.
Martin Maldonado
HOU
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36.
Joey Bart
SF
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37.
Chance Sisco
NYM
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38.
Victor Caratini
SD
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39.
Mike Zunino
TB
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40.
Sam Huff
TEX
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41.
Luis Torrens
SEA
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42.
Adley Rutschman
BAL
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43.
Austin Barnes
LAD
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44.
Andrew Knizner
STL
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45.
Jose Trevino
TEX
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46.
Jason Castro
HOU
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47.
Andrew Knapp
PHI
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48.
Austin Romine
CHC
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49.
Kyle Higashioka
NYY
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50.
Robinson Chirinos
CHC
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51.
Willians Astudillo
MIN
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52.
Stephen Vogt
ATL
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53.
Luis Campusano
SD
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54.
Austin Hedges
CLE
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55.
Curt Casali
SF
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56.
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
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57.
Chadwick Tromp
SF
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58.
Dom Nunez
COL
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59.
Manny Pina
MIL
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60.
Alex Avila
WSH
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61.
Jonah Heim
TEX
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62.
Kevin Plawecki
BOS
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63.
William Contreras
ATL
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64.
Kyle Farmer
CIN
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65.
Tyler Flowers
FA
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66.
Chad Wallach
LAD
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67.
Tomas Nido
NYM
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68.
Reese McGuire
TOR
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69.
Tony Wolters
CHC
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70.
Jacob Nottingham
SEA
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71.
Michael Perez
PIT
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72.
Austin Wells
NYY
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73.
Heriberto Hernandez
TB
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74.
Francisco Alvarez
NYM
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75.
Aramis Garcia
OAK
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76.
Dillon Dingler
DET
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77.
Tyler Soderstrom
OAK
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78.
Alex Jackson
MIA
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79.
Bo Naylor
CLE
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80.
John Hicks
TEX
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81.
Grayson Greiner
DET
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82.
Tyler Heineman
PHI
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83.
Zack Collins
CWS
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84.
Francisco Cervelli
FA
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85.
Austin Allen
OAK
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86.
Matt Wieters
FA
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87.
Sandy Leon
MIA
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88.
Jonathan Lucroy
FA
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89.
Cam Gallagher
KC
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90.
Jake Rogers
DET
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91.
Rene Rivera
WSH
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92.
Welington Castillo
WSH
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93.
Kevan Smith
ATL
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94.
Jose Briceno
FA
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95.
Beau Taylor
CIN
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96.
Meibrys Viloria
KC
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97.
Garrett Stubbs
HOU
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98.
Bryan Holaday
ARI
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99.
Deivy Grullon
CWS
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100.
Anthony Bemboom
LAA
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101.
Cal Raleigh
SEA
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102.
Rafael Marchan
PHI
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103.
Dustin Garneau
COL
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104.
P.J. Higgins
CHC
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105.
Drew Butera
LAA
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106.
Seby Zavala
CWS
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107.
Connor Wong
BOS
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108.
Eric Haase
DET
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109.
Tres Barrera
WSH
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110.
Chris Herrmann
BOS
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111.
Ali Sanchez
STL
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112.
Luke Maile
MIL
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113.
Rob Brantly
NYY
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114.
Andrew Susac
PIT
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115.
Patrick Mazeika
NYM
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116.
Josh Phegley
FA
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117.
Austin Wynns
BAL
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118.
Joe Hudson
PIT
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119.
Caleb Joseph
SEA
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120.
David Freitas
TB
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121.
Ryan Lavarnway
CIN
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122.
Ronaldo Hernandez
BOS
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123.
Jose Lobaton
CHC
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124.
Raudy Read
WSH
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125.
Jeff Mathis
ATL
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126.
Brian Navarreto
MIA
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127.
Juan Graterol
TOR
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128.
Joseph Odom
TB
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129.
Tim Federowicz
LAD
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130.
Yermin Mercedes
CWS
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131.
Colton Shaver
HOU
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132.
Tomas Telis
MIN
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133.
Blake Swihart
WSH
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134.
Nick Ciuffo
BAL
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135.
Miguel Amaya
CHC
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136.
John Ryan Murphy
PIT
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