Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
|
1.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
The young slugger put it all together in 2021, tying for the MLB lead in HRs and leading the AL in runs, OBP and slugging percentage in his age-22 season. Statcast numbers and other peripherals fully supported the gaudy surface stats. Guerrero alleviated concerns that he hit the ball on the ground too much by cutting his ground-ball rate from 55% to 44%. Vladito doesn't steal bases, but he gives you everything else. And unlike his famous dad, he's actually willing to take a walk. Guerrero deserves to be taken in the top half of the first round.
|
|
2.
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
Power is his calling card, and Alvarez didn't disappoint in that department last year, mashing 33 HRs with 104 RBI. He had a healthy .277 batting average in 2021 and has a career mark of .290, so the power doesn't come at the expense of BA. The power peripherals are outstanding - he's in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. There could be a 50 HR season lurking here. Alvarez has just one SB in 233 career games, and he's had surgery on both knees. But if those granddad knees hold up, you're likely to be please with your return on investment.
|
|
3.
Aaron Judge
NYY
All rise! His Honor enjoyed a season of reasonably good health in 2021 and posted a career-high .269 BA to go along with 39 HRs, 98 RBI and 89 runs. His 71% contact rate was the best of his career, and naturally his power peripherals were through the roof. No one punishes baseballs quite like Judge. Health is always a concern, and he doesn't run much, but the power skills should age well as this 6-7, 282-pound brute enters his 30s.
|
|
4.
Jose Ramirez
CLE
Ramirez continues to be one of fantasy baseball's most bankable commodities, reliably stuffing the stat sheet. His fire-hydrant physique belies impressive speed; he swiped 27 bags last year, including 18 after the All-Star Break. The power numbers are stable. The batting average has been less predictable, but it's probably a good sign that he managed to bat .266 last year despite a .256 BABIP. His supporting cast isn't great, but it wasn't great last year either, and he still scored 111 runs and had 103 RBI. Invest with confidence.
|
|
5.
Bo Bichette
TOR
The future is bright for this young star as he enters his age-24 season. Bichette broke out in 2021 with an AL-high 191 hits and proved himself to be a true five-category performer. His dad Dante once hit 40 HRs for the Rockies, and Bo seemingly has room for growth in the power department with some launch-angle adjustments, since his ground ball rate last season was just shy of 50%. Bichette doesn't like to take walks, but he hits the ball hard to all fields. Playing in one of MLB's best lineups should help keep his run and RBI totals robust. His 2021 season will be a tough act to follow, but this is a first-round profile.
|
|
6.
Shohei Ohtani
LAA
He's Japan's greatest gift to MLB since Ichiro, and he offers the greatest combination of hitting and pitching since Babe Ruth. Ohtani's 9.1 WAR in 2021 was more than a full win higher than anyone else's. It's unfortunate that the rules in most fantasy leagues make it impossible for investors to fully tap all of Ohtani's skills. As a hitter, he provides prodigious power, scores runs in bunches and makes meaningful SB contributions. He batted .257 last year, but would it shock anyone if he gave us a .300 season? As a pitcher, Ohtani got his walks under control, struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings, and posted a 9-2 record. It's a dazzling skill set, and if Ohtani stays healthy, he's likely to return something close to first-round value as a hitter. He's a valuable pitcher, too, but to most fantasy owners that's just gravy.
|
|
7.
Salvador Perez
KC
Perez tied for the MLB lead with 48 home runs in 2021 and had a league-leading 121 RBI. After missing the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery and playing 37 of 60 games in 2020, Perez played 161 games last year (40 as a DH) and went to the plate 665 times. He's bound to get fewer PAs this season, and some HR pullback is probably inevitable, but the Statcast numbers show that Perez crushes the ball when he makes contact. His career batting averages have been all over the map, and he doesn't run, but the power and run production are legit. Perez deserves to be the first catcher off the board, but he might be drafted too early after last season's homer-fest.
|
|
8.
Bryce Harper
PHI
Mr. Consistency. Draft Harper somewhere between 6 and 10 in the first round, leave him in the lineup and count your blessings. In one of the quietest MVP campaigns in recent memory, Harper did Harper-like things in 2021, with 35 homers, 101 runs, 84 RBI and 13 stolen bases. With the Phillies adding Nick Castellanos to provide Harper with some lineup protection, a 100 RBI season with 110 runs is probably Harper's floor.
|
|
9.
George Springer
TOR
Quad and knee injuries limited Springer to 78 games in his first season with the Blue Jays, but he mashed when healthy, with 22 HRs, 50 RBI and 59 runs in just 299 at-bats. Springer has consistently posted batting averages in the .260s or higher during his career, and he'll steal a handful of bases for you. Batting leadoff with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Teoscar Hernandez behind him, Springer has a great chance to score 100 or more runs. He'll turn 33 in August, but he seems to be aging gracefully. Springer is a solid investment.
|
|
10.
J.D. Martinez
BOS
Martinez got the bad taste of 2020 out of his mouth with a fine 2021 season. After batting .213 and hitting only seven HRs in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Martinez batted .286 last year with 28 HRs, 99 RBI and 92 runs. Martinez is 34, so there's some age-related risk, but his 2021 Statcast numbers and other peripheral stats suggest that his skill set is aging well. He plays in a great hitter's park, and batting behind Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. FantasyPros rankers like Martinez much more than the general public does - an indication that he's probably a value.
|
|
11.
Giancarlo Stanton
NYY
If he stays relatively healthy, Stanton is probably going to contend for the home run crown. But that's a huge "if," obviously. Stanton enjoyed two relatively healthy seasons in 2018-2019, played 41 combined games in 2019-2020, and managed to play 139 games last year with only one stay on the DL for a quad issue. Statcast numbers show that he's still one of the games top sluggers, and he should have better luck in RBIs and runs than he had last season, when he had 97 and 64, respectively. Stanton doesn't run, but he holds his own in batting average. There's a lot of risk here, particularly with Stanton now well into his 30s, but the lengthy injury history almost guarantees a discount in drafts.
|
|
12.
Franmil Reyes
CHC
Reyes crushes the ball and has the potential to become one of MLB's elite power hitters. The problem is that he hits the ball on the ground way too often. He had a 46% groundball rate in 2021 and a 36% flyball rate. That's a low flyball rate for a power hitter, and yet it's the highest of Reyes's four-year career. His 64% contact rate last year suggests there's worrisome BA downside here. Reyes doesn't steal bases. His run totals have been unimpressive and don't figure to improve with the bottom of the Cleveland batting order looking so anemic. And Reyes is only DH-eligible in most leagues. Reyes could lead the AL in homers if he makes launch-angle adjustments, but let someone else chase that dream.
|
|
13.
Teoscar Hernandez
TOR
It would normally make sense to be wary of a late-ish bloomer who has a breakout year at age 28. Hernandez established new career highs in basically every offensive category last year, batting .296, belting 32 HRs, driving in 116 runs, scoring 92 times and doubling his previous season high in stolen bases with 12. But the peripheral numbers back it all up. Statcast absolutely loves Hernandez, even backing up the SB breakout by putting him in the 85th percentile for sprint speed. He'll bat cleanup in a stacked Blue Jays lineup and should get ample opportunities to drive in runs. A full repeat of his 2021 numbers might be a stretch, but Hernandez should be able to come close.
|
|
14.
Mitch Haniger
SEA
Sports hernia surgery caused him to miss the 2020 season, but Haniger returned in a big way last year, posting career highs in home runs (39), RBI (100) and runs (110). There are some warning signs here, however. Haniger's strikeout rate has gone through the roof, and his on-base percentage has plummeted. His exit velocities suggest that he won't match last year's HR total. The good news is that Haniger's banner 2021 season hasn't driven his price sky-high. Still, some caution is warranted.
|
|
15.
Eloy Jimenez
CWS
Give the ascending slugger a mulligan for an ill-fated 2021 season. Jimenez ruptured a pectoral tendon in a spring training game and didn't come back until July 26. His surface stats in his 55 games were decent - 10 HRs, 37 RBI a .249 average - but Jimenez didn't live up to the promise he showed in the shortened 2020 season, when he had 14 HRs, 41 RBI and a .296 average. Expect a rebound and substantial power numbers. Speed isn't part of the package - he's played 232 career games and still hasn't stolen a base - but that's the only weakness here. It's only a matter of time before Jimenez gives us a 40 HR season.
|
|
16.
Nelson Cruz
WSH
This ageless wonder will turn 42 on July 1 but continues to mash. He'll do his mashing for the Nationals this year after signing a one-year deal. Cruz belted 32 home runs last year, which was actually his lowest total for a full season since 2013. He was batting .294 for Minnesota before being traded to Tampa, where he hit only .226 the rest of the way. At his age, the decline could come quickly, but exit velocity, barrel rate and other power peripherals say he's still going strong.
|
|
17.
Randy Arozarena
TB
The playoff hero of 2020 provided a satisfying encore by being named 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, though there was some slippage. After belting 10 HRs in 20 playoff games two seasons ago, Arozarena hit 20 homers in 141 games last season and struck out 170 times. A modest flyball rate and ordinary Statcast numbers suggest that Arozarena probably won't provide elite power numbers. Last year's 37% hit rate fueled a .274 batting average that may not be sustainable. On the bright side, he had 20 SBs on 30 attempts. There are a multiple paths to value here, but still, Arozarena is a high-profile player likely to be overdrafted.
|
|
18.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
Mountcastle fully arrived in his age-24 season, shaking off a slow start to finish with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs and a reasonable .255 batting average. His .333 BA in the abbreviated 2020 season was a mirage, but Mountcastle's power is legit, with a .232 ISO in 2021 and home runs on 20% of his flyballs. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to Mountcastle's game, which could make him a BA risk, and he won't steal many bases. But the power profile is enticing, and it's a nice bonus that Mountcastle has dual eligibility as an outfielder and first baseman.
|
|
19.
Austin Meadows
DET
On the one hand, Meadows largely bounced back from the horror story that was the abbreviated 2020 season. His strikeout rate normalized, his power returned, and his playing time stabilized. The glaring exception was that he could not correct his sudden struggles against lefties. In 2019, Meadows slashed .275/.316/.521 against southpaws. Last year, he slashed just .198/.270/.293 against them. Even if Meadows's overall numbers are passable, it seems unlikely that a team like the Rays are going to let a player who is merely an average defender continue to keep an everyday job when he's virtually useless against left-handed throwers. That would still leave Meadows on the strong side of a platoon, but if he does begin to sit more regularly, his counting stats will take a hit, and fantasy managers should be aware of that before they select him in their drafts.
|
|
20.
Jose Abreu
CWS
The White Sox slugger continues to be one of the most reliable investments in fantasy baseball. He hit 30 homers last year, with 117 RBI and 86 runs. In seven full MLB seasons, Abreu has produced 30 or more HRs five times and 100 or more RBI six times. His .261 batting average last season was the lowest of his career, but he batted .280 from July 1 on. His exit velocities and hard-hit percentage say that he still crushes baseballs with authority. If you get an age discount, pounce.
|
|
21.
Trey Mancini
HOU
Mancini was one of the best baseball stories of 2021 as he returned from missing the 2020 season due to cancer to put up a productive year. He dipped significantly from his outstanding 2019 numbers (.291/.364/.535), but his underlying metrics largely held firm. The truth is that Mancini was just a bit lucky in 2019, as he outperformed his expected numbers in nearly every category, and was comparably unlucky in 2021, underperforming those same numbers by similar amounts. His true version likely lies somewhere in between, and that's not a bad thing. Expect an improvement from most of his numbers last year, but bank on 25 homers, rather than the 34 he totaled in 2019, particularly with the new dimensions in left field in Camden Yards.
|
|
22.
Josh Donaldson
NYY
Spoiler alert with Donaldson - he's going to hit the ball really, really hard, he's going to walk a ton, andhe' going to miss time with an injury or two, probably involving his calf. The move to the Yankees can only help his fantasy outlook but, as with the Twins, the Yankees' DH spot will be filled most days, so Donaldson will need to play the field. His quality of contact has remained remarkably consistent despite his advanced age, so even in his age-36 season, fantasy managers shouldn't worry much about a decline. Book the production when he plays, but have a fill-in ready.
|
|
23.
Jorge Soler
MIA
Soler's 48-homer season isn't ever going to repeat itself, but he doesn't need it to in order to provide fantasy value. He popped 27 homers last year and although his batting average has been in the .220s each of the last two years, his expected batting average has been closer to the high .240s. Now with the Marlins, he'll need every bit of hard contact he can get, but he should benefit from the NL adopting the DH. Soler isn't and won't be a star, but he's a useful fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.
|
|
24.
Ty France
SEA
Other than an awful May, during which he battled through a wrist injury and hit just .190, France had an outstanding 2021 season. He batted .291 overall and struck out just 16.3% of the time, all while putting up passable counting stats. There's a hard cap on France's value - he doesn't have a ton of power, he has no speed, and his expected stats say that he's due for a batting average correction. But absent an injury, there's pretty much no chance of the bottom dropping out, and he makes an ideal corner infielder who you can leave in your lineup without much concern.
|
|
25.
Pete Alonso
NYM
A classic power-hitting first baseman, Alonso is most likely going to deliver 40 HR, 100 RBI and should cross the plate close to 100 times. He's a plug-and-play option. Some managers like to punt on first base until later in the draft, but if you want to secure your power numbers late in the fourth round or early in the fifth, Alonso is a rock-solid choice.
|
|
26.
Michael Brantley
HOU
Brantley is one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy baseball, and so long as you're looking for what he gives you, there's nothing wrong with that. He's a lock to bat .300 and he'll generally offer decent runs and RBI totals batting in a strong Houston lineup. But the power that we saw in 2019 was an aberration at this point, and unless MLB uses juiced balls again, Brantley is likely to end up in the 10-12 home run range. At an advancing age, there's always reason to be concerned that he'll fall off a cliff, but nothing in his profile suggests that is imminent. Draft him for batting average but make sure you can make up the speed and power elsewhere.
|
|
27.
Anthony Santander
BAL
Santander dealt with a litany of injuries last year to his lower body, so the fact that he still popped 18 home runs in 100 games is rather impressive. He's admitted he is not 100% healthy after last year, which is obviously concerning with the season on the verge of beginning. Nevertheless, given Santander's ADP, he's well worth drafting. He's got 25 home runs in his bat easily if he can remain healthy, and his defense is so strong that he'll remain in the lineup even if he struggles offensively to start as he finds his footing. He rarely walks and so his runs scored total will never help you, but he's fine as a cheap outfield bat that always gets overlooked in fantasy.
|
|
28.
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Schwarber was really, really good in 2020. He ranked in the top 10% of the league in barrel rate, average and maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk percentage, and wOBA. He also batted a career-best .266, probably because he swung at far fewer pitches outside the strike zone than he ever had before. He'll now bat near or at the top of a strong Phillies lineup in a park that should only accentuate Schwarber's raw power. If Schwarber can hold the gains he saw last year - being more selective, hitting more line drives, etc. - then he should be in for perhaps his best season to date.
|
|
29.
Joey Gallo
LAD
It should tell you all you need to know about Gallo that he hit 38 home runs and scored 90 runs last season and baseball fans and fantasy players view his year as a disaster. Gallo basically did what he always did - he struck out a ton (34.6%), walked more than anyone not named Juan Soto (18%) and left the yard often. His sub-.200 batting average is just basically what Gallo is going to bring to the table unless he changes his approach or gets lucky, though the fact that he hit ground balls at an elevated clip didn't help much. He'll still be batting in the middle of a strong Yankees lineup, so if you can deal with the batting average hit, draft him for the homers and runs scored production.
|
|
30.
Willie Calhoun
SF
|
|
31.
Jesse Winker
SEA
Winker's value drops with the move to Seattle, which has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB. He should still provide a solid batting average, but aspirations of 30 HR and 90 RBI now seem far-fetched. Winker is yet another player who deals with chronic injuries. He's a guy I usually pass on and regret it at least 21 nights of the season, but pat myself on the back the rest of the year.
|
|
32.
Josh Bell
SD
Bell had a horrid .464 OPS in April, likely because his timing was off after missing time because of a COVID-19 diagnosis. But once he found his footing, he was everything that Nationals hoped he would be. He batted .277 with an .887 OPS in the second half, and even played plenty of outfield so Washington could keep his bat in the lineup even with Ryan Zimmerman playing well. His walk percentage and strikeout rate largely returned to their pre-2020 levels, and he got better and better as the season went along. With Zimmerman now retired and the DH in the National League, Bell's bat should remain in the lineup nearly every day, and the presence of Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz should offer him plenty of RBI opportunities. He's not a fantasy superstar, but he's a capable starter at first base for your fantasy team.
|
|
33.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
TOR
Gurriel cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.9%, but that's pretty much where the good news ends. His quality of contact dropped significantly (at least in some part due to a knee injury he played through), resulting in a sharp downturn in both his home runs and slugging percentage. Playing for a ridiculously strong Toronto offense will keep his counting stats relatively afloat, and he may bat higher in the order with Marcus Semien in Texas now. And he's entering his age-28 season so perhaps there's a power bump coming. But Gurriel looks much more like a player who you draft because he won't hurt you, not because he'll help you a ton.
|
|
34.
Gavin Sheets
CWS
|
|
35.
Miguel Cabrera
DET
|
|
36.
Luis Torrens
SEA
|
|
37.
Seth Beer
ARI
|
|
38.
Adolis Garcia
TEX
Garcia came out of absolutely nowhere last season to become one of just five players to hit at least 31 home runs and steal at least 16 bases. His success largely came early in the season, as he blasted 11 home runs in May with a .312 batting average before, as most fantasy managers expected, pitchers adjusted. The adjustment hit Garcia hard, as he slashed just .211/.256/.370 in the second half, though he stole seven bases over the final month of the season to cushion the blow. The issue for Garcia is the same that plagues most largely unknown hitters who put up huge hot streaks - he lacks plate discipline. His strikeout rate (31.2%) and walk rate (5.1%) were both in the bottom six percent of MLB, and both were due largely to the fact that he simply swings too much at pitches outside of the zone (39.7 O-Swing%, ninth-worst in the league). The Rangers have a much-improved lineup and perhaps Garcia will improve in his second year, but unless he drastically changes his approach, his numbers are going to have a hard cap on them.
|
|
39.
Jed Lowrie
FA
|
|
40.
Jacob Nottingham
BAL
|
|
41.
Yermin Mercedes
SF
|
|
42.
Mitch Moreland
FA
|
|
43.
Brendan McKay
TB
|
|
44.
Ryan O'Hearn
KC
|
|
45.
Luke Voit
WSH
Voit played in just 68 games last year after battling through various injuries, and his overall game suffered. He hit just 11 home runs and batted .239, while seeing his strikeout rate jump to a career-worst 30.7%. He still made solid contact overall, upping his hard-hit rate to 52.2% and his barrel rate to 15.8%, but none of that was enough to overcome the increase in whiffs. He'll get a fresh start in San Diego, where he'll likely be the everyday DH unless the team trades Eric Hosmer. Once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns, there should be RBI opportunities aplenty, but even until then, Voit should provide plenty of power. If he can cut his strikeout rate back down to his career levels and see a corresponding increase in batting average, he should be a fantasy asset.
|
|
46.
Khris Davis
FA
|
|
47.
Randal Grichuk
COL
It's not often that an offensive player can be traded out of Toronto and get an upgrade in his value, but that's exactly what Grichuk got with his move to Colorado. We know what Grichuk is by now - he's gonna make elite contact with the ball a ton, but he's not at all selective, so he holds himself back by swinging at bad pitches. There's a ton of power with the veteran, and Coors Field should help boost his batting average from his career .245 mark. He's slated to bat sixth right now, meaning there should be RBI opportunity aplenty, so he makes a fine fifth outfielder for your fantasy team, with the upside to be more.
|
|
48.
Willson Contreras
CHC
Contreras isn't quite the fantasy superstar that he looked like he might be when he broke in, but he's still an excellent option at a weak position. He's hit at least 21 homers in three of his last four full seasons and chips in roughly 120 combined runs and RBI. That doesn't sound like much, particularly with a batting average that seems likely to hover at around .240 at this stage in his career, but it's more than enough for a catcher. He should see some extra at-bats this year with the DH in the National League, and that should only help his value.
|
|
49.
Ryan McBroom
FA
|
|
50.
Curtis Terry
FA
|
|
51.
Justin Turner
LAD
Turner is entering his age-37 season and saw some mild decline last year, but he also tied his career-high with 151 games played and popped 27 home runs. His walk and strikeout rates largely held, as did his quality of contact. With the addition of the DH in the National League, and with the Dodgers only adding to their elite lineup, Turner should have enough juice left in the tank to put together another productive season. Considering the weakness of the third base position this year, Turner makes an excellent mid-round target with a mitigated health risk in light of the DH.
|
|
52.
Jonathan Schoop
DET
Schoop is rarely talked about during prep season, but he has hit at least 21 home runs in each of his last five full seasons. That doesn't sound overly impressive, but that level of consistency in power from a second baseman is unusual and impressive. As usual, Schop was again among the league leaders in maximum exit velocity (117.1 MPH, a career high), and his hard hit rate was nearly five percentage points higher than his career average. The Tigers' lineup should be stronger this year with the addition of Javier Baez, and considering that Schoop is just 30 years old and has shown no signs of decline, there's every reason to expect his boring but stealthily productive numbers once again.
|
|
53.
Miguel Sano
MIN
Sano reportedly lost 25 pounds this offseason and is in, wait for it, the best shape of his life. Hopefully that means he can stay healthy and productive because, simply put, he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the game. He is always in the top three percent of the league in hard hit rate and exit velocity, and 50 homers could potentially be in reach if he put it all together. But he struck out 34.4% of the time last year and that was the best single-season mark in that category of his career. There is potential, as there always is with Sano, but you've got to be in really good shape in batting average before you take on the risk with him.
|
|
54.
Ronnie Dawson
CIN
|
|
55.
Rowdy Tellez
MIL
|
|
56.
Yoenis Cespedes
FA
|
|
57.
Carlos Santana
SEA
|
|
58.
David Freitas
FA
|
|
59.
Pablo Sandoval
FA
|
|
60.
Jesus Aguilar
BAL
Aguilar probably would have gotten to 100 RBI last year had he not dealt with knee inflammation at the end of last season. But other than that category, it just feels like he leaves a lot on the table. Despite prodigious power, last year was only the second in his career where he topped 20 home runs. He'll benefit from the addition of the DH this year, but the bottom line is that between the Marlins' lackluster lineup and Aguilar's lack of speed, he's going to offer little in many categories, including runs scored and stolen bases. He's a fine filler if you need RBI, but don't expect all that much production elsewhere given his home park and surrounding cast.
|
|
61.
Yohel Pozo
TEX
|
|
62.
Tommy Pham
BOS
Pham recently signed with the Reds, and even though the team has shipped off most of its lineup, it's not a bad fit. Pham's batting average has suffered over the last two seasons, but his expected batting average (.266, .258) suggests that he's been more unlucky than anything. And although his power numbers have declined, a move to Great American Ball Park should likely add a few home runs to his ledger this year. Pham still walks a ton and is a lock for double-digit steals, and he's the type of player who fantasy managers like to ignore each year. Don't worry as much about the lack of lineup protection, and instead buy the high floor and relative lack of competition for his job.
|
