Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Freddie Freeman
ATL
Although there were questions about Freeman's 2020 season because of his battle with COVID-19 prior to the season, those questions were answered and then some with his MVP season. The statcast leaderboard is littered with Freeman's name, as he ranked in the top nine percent of the league in barrel rate, average exit velocity, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBAcon, hard hit percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage. Freeman likely won't reach double digits in steals, but that is about the only negative thing you can say about his fantasy outlook. He's as safe as they come in the other four hitting categories, and comes with next to no risk. He'll likely cost a borderline first round pick on draft day, but he is worth it.
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2.
Cody Bellinger
LAD
Bellinger was unable to replicate the magic of his 2019 breakout during last year's shortened season. His average dipped to .239, the worst mark of his career, his power dropped significantly, and he didn't make the same quality of contact. But although he slid backwards in his walk and strikeout rates, his regression there was minimal, and his expected batting average was .284. In other words, Bellinger got worse in 2020, but it wasn't quite as bad as the surface numbers suggest. He did have offseason shoulder surgery after getting injured during a post-season celebration, and that's always a bit worrisome for a hitter. But given that a "down" year for Bellinger at this point is a 30-15 season, he warrants being selected early in the second round.
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3.
Jose Abreu
CWS
For most players, fantasy managers need to consider whether to discount a highly out-of-character dip in their numbers given the shortened season. For Abreu, it's the opposite - whether fantasy managers should give credence to an outstanding MVP season, during which Abreu vastly outperformed his numbers from every other season of his career. Everything was good for Abreu in 2020, everything. He hit the ball harder than ever and consistently. He got on base more. He had career-high paces in every category. Abreu will be entering his age-34 season, so there's no way you should expect a repeat performance, but it's worth noting that he has increased his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage in each of the last five seasons. Abreu's cost doesn't match his numbers last year, of course, but you'll still have to pay a hefty price in drafts. Given his safety and and his newly-discovered upside, however, it's worth it.
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4.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
LeMahieu will return to the Yankees on a six-year deal, and that is great news for fantasy managers. Since he's been New York, he's provided elite all-around production, most notably in batting average, where he has batted .336. He's blossomed into a 25-home run hitter with plenty of runs and RBI, and a handful of steals that chip in with the category. Add to that LeMahieu's multi-position eligibility and he is a huge asset to every fantasy team. With nothing in his profile to suggest a skills decline, he should be drafted before the third round is out in every fantasy league.
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5.
Pete Alonso
NYM
Alonso didn't quite follow up his incredible 2019 season last year, but he certainly wasn't terrible. The vast majority of his underlying statcast data and metrics looked similar, and he mostly just didn't make quite as consistently hard contact as he did the previous year. Alonso is never going to help you in batting average, but you should expect 40 home runs and 100 RBI this year and for the foreseeable future. With such a high floor, Alonso makes a more than adequate starting first baseman in mixed leagues.
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6.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
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7.
Paul Goldschmidt
STL
Goldschmidt had an interesting 2020 season, during which he brought his batting average back up to .304 and his walk rate to 16%, while simultaneously dropping his strikeout rate to a career best 18.6%. After swinging more than he ever had in his first season with the Cardinals, Goldschmidt returned to the patient approach he had developed throughout his career, swinging at just 40.5% of pitches (after a 46.4% swinging strike rate the year before). But while his average went up, his power waned, as he hit just six home runs and had a career-worst .466 slugging percentage. Nolan Arenado batting behind him this year should help, and he had bone chips removed from his elbow this offseason. There could be another big-time power season left in Goldschmidt's bat, but the more likely scenario is that he will put up solid but unspectacular production at the first base position.
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8.
Anthony Rizzo
CHC
Rizzo's average dropped to just .222 last year and his counting stats waned, though the latter failing was much more due to the lack of production from the rest of the Cubs lineup. His walk and strikeout rates, however, stayed mostly in line, and his BABIP was an artificially low .218 (career mark of .289), which is partly why there was such a gap between his xBA of .266 and his actual batting average. With that said, Rizzo didn't hit the ball nearly as hard last year, as he saw career worsts in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. He likely won't ever be the player he was at his peak, but there's still plenty in his bat that can help fantasy managers, including the handful of steals he will throw in each year. He's a starting-caliber first baseman still, without question, and he'll go at a discount because of last year's numbers.
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9.
Matt Olson
OAK
Olson again hit for a ton of power last year, and ranked in the top nine percent of the league in average exit velocity for the third straight season. But he struck out 31.4% of the time, which contributed to a massive average drop to just .195. Olson had a bit of bad luck, as his xBA was .224, but still, it was by far his worst career mark. Although he'll never be a high average hitter, it's a good bet that he'll return something this year closer to his .245 career mark. Combine that with his likely near-40 home run season, and he'll make a fine mid-round selection and starting first baseman for any fantasy team.
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10.
Max Muncy
LAD
Muncy's batting average dropped to a ridiculously low .192 last year, and there were two culprits. The first is that his line drive rate plummeted from 23.5% to just 13.8%, leading to far more ground balls. The second was that he simply didn't hit the ball as hard. His hard hit rate and average exit velocity fell, and his HR/FB rate dropped seven points. Muncy dealt with finger and elbow injuries, so those may account for his poor season, but even then he was on pace to reach the 30-homer plateau for a third straight year. Muncy has position eligibility galore, and at the weak second base position, so continue to draft him in the middle rounds as a cheap source of power who adds value thanks to his ability to play all around the infield for your fantasy team.
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11.
Keston Hiura
MIL
Hiura looked to be on the verge of superstardom heading into 2020, if he could just cut back on his bloated 30.7% strikeout rate. Instead, he struck out more than ever (34.6% of the time), en route to a league-leading 85 strikeouts. That led to a massive drop in production, notably in batting average, which fell from .303 in 2019 to .212 last year. Hiura was never a high-strikeout player in the minors. He never struck out more than 26.3% in any level and he had an overall strikeout rate of just 21%. If he can manage to cut down on the whiffs, he should be a top option at second base given his power and speed, but for now, drop him down your draft board a bit from where he was heading into 2020. He's still a borderline top-five option, especially since he will add first base eligibility after the Brewers signed Kolten Wong, but exercise more caution.
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12.
Mike Moustakas
CIN
Because Moustakas was a hitter who played for the Reds, he had a poor 2020 season (seriously, look at their collective numbers). He walked more, struck out more, and lost some points on his batting average, but overall, there was little different in Moustakas's profile. He continued to hit for power and make quality contact. He may not score many runs given his lack of speed and surrounding cast, and the batting average isn't going to help you. But he's got plenty of power for a second-base eligible player, and there's no sign that his production is ready to fall off a cliff.
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13.
Josh Bell
WSH
Bell looked like a superstar in the making in the first half of 2019, but struggled for much of the second half of the season and then fell off a cliff in 2020. He slashed a mere .226/.305/.364 and hit only eight home runs. His strikeout and ground ball rates took massive jumps, while his walk rate and launch angle plummeted. Bell blamed his struggles on his swing getting long, and you could tell by how often he changed his stance and swing last year that he simply could not figure things out. Now with the Nationals, the 29-year-old Bell will have a chance to revive his career. We've seen the upside, so he's certainly worth drafting at a discount, but he's much more of a borderline corner infielder than a starting-caliber first baseman.
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14.
Brandon Lowe
TB
Lowe actually lost a point on his batting average from 2019 (.269 from .270), but his profile looked far better in 2020. He cut his strikeout rate from 34.6% to 25.9%, and his swinging strike rate from 19.1% to 15.4%. Despite barreling the ball a whopping 17.5% of the time (top 2 percent in baseball), his average dropped a point because, well, he just didn't have an outrageously lucky BABIP like he did in 2019 (.377). Lowe improved his ISO and HR/FB rate, and was generally the best version of himself in 2020. Even mashing together his 2019 and 2020 seasons, Lowe has hit 31 homers and stole eight bases over 138 games. Batting near the top of a strong lineup, he should deliver another solid season at the thin second base position.
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15.
Rhys Hoskins
PHI
Hoskins' stock was down heading into the 2020 season, after he batted just .229 and continued his three-year trend of declining in almost every noticeable category. But he was slashing .241/.381/.485 before he was hit by a pitch on his hand and struggled to finish the year. Last year, Hoskins slashed .245/.384/.503 and was on a 40-homer, 100-RBI pace, similar numbers to those he put up prior to his 2019 injury. Unfortunately, an elbow injury ended Hoskins' 2020 season early, and he had surgery in early October with a 4-6 month recovery timeframe. Everything looks good for Hoskins as of now, and assuming he has no setbacks as spring training ramps up, he should make a fine starting first baseman in mixed leagues.
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16.
Alec Bohm
PHI
Bohm's major league debut was a success, in that he batted a robust .338 with an .881 OPS. But despite hitting the ball hard consistently (his 10.3% barrel rate and 46.8% hard hit percentage was well above the major league average), he hit just four home runs, and his xBA was just .286. The problem is he simply pounded the ball into the ground, putting up a 53.2% ground ball rate and just 4.8 degrees of launch angle. Bohm never showed a ton of power in the minors, but he's just entering his age-25 season, so there's always room for growth. But for redraft leagues, buy him as a high-average bat with unexceptional power.
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17.
Dominic Smith
NYM
Smith showed he had the bat to hit in the majors in 2019, but he took an extra step forward in last year's shortened season. His .316/.377/.616 slash line effectively forced the Mets to find a way to get his bat into the lineup, even if his defense tried to prevent it. His Statcast data was excellent, as he put up a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%, all with a .405 wOBA, which was in the top four percent of the league. The issue for Smith is his fielding and with the National League surprisingly not adopting the designated hitter, that means he'll need to play out in left field most days. Although the Mets can surely live with the tradeoff, Smith will likely lose plenty of at-bats late in games as he gets switched out for defensive purposes. He'll still have plenty of value, but without the DH, be cautious with your projections for his counting stats.
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18.
Luke Voit
NYY
Voit suffered a partial meniscus tear in his knee this spring and is going to be precluded from participating in baseball activity for at least three weeks after surgery. It's almost certainly going to take Voit at least a couple of weeks after returning to baseball activity to return to game action, meaning you should bank on him being out until May 15th or so. When healthy, he's going to produce, however. He has always had a ton of power but last year he left the yard at a ridiculous pace last year, with a 34.9% HR/FB rate, third best in the league. The thing is, nothing about his profile really changed all that much. Indeed, his hard hit rate, barrel percentage, and average exit velocity actually were career lows. The biggest difference was that Voit simply swung more than ever, 52.1% of the time, and correspondingly made more contact, at a 73.8% rate, and actually struck out less than ever before. If Voit keeps the same approach, there's every reason to expect him to put up massive power numbers when he's healthy. That's always been his bugaboo, of course, and since he is already dealing with a significant injury, you can't draft him as a starting first baseman in mixed leagues at this point.
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19.
Eric Hosmer
SD
Hosmer made no secret of his effort to attempt to (finally) stop pounding the ball into the ground so much last year, and it worked to perfection. His ground ball rate fell from roughly 57% the previous three seasons to just 46.2%, and his flyball rate rose from about 21% in the same span to 34.2%. The result was an impressive nine home runs in just 38 games in an injury-shortened season. Hosmer still hits the ball hard and if he can maintain the changes to his profile into 2021, he'll make an incredibly cheap corner infielder who can chip in pretty much everywhere.
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20.
Wil Myers
SD
Myers talked openly about making a swing change last year, and it paid off in a big way. He raised his average by nearly 50 points over the previous year while cutting his strikeout rate, and ranked in the top seven percent in barrel rate. Myers didn't run as much as previous years in the shortened season, but he still ranked in the top 85% of the league in sprint speed. His average will likely come down to closer to its career .254 mark. But he has earned a bit of a leash at least with his strong 2020 campaign, and should be a fine power-speed combination who will put up solid overall counting numbers.
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21.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
Mountcastle followed up a successful minor-league career with a strong 35-game stint in the majors last year. Not only did he bat .333 with an .878 OPS and a 139 wRC+, but he also walked 7.9% of the time, far above what he showed in the minors. The batting average is unsustainable - he was a .295 hitter in the minors and last year he relied on a .398 BABIP despite sub-par average exit velocity and a middling line drive rate. But playing in Camden Yards should certainly keep his production high, and batting in the middle of the Orioles lineup should lead to enough RBI chances to make him a rosterable, if not startable, fantasy option.
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22.
Miguel Sano
MIN
Sano has always had one of the worst strikeout rates in the majors, but his 43.9% mark in 2020 was awful even by his standards. That's always the risk with Sano - that his strikeout rate is going to bring his batting average down to close to .200, where he'll almost single-handedly tank you in that category. The upside of course is that he absolutely crushes the ball, as evident by the fact that he was no worse than second in baseball in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate last year. Sano's contract with the Twins shows they're committed to him, so he should hopefully be beyond concerns of getting sent down to the minors if he struggles. That puts Sano in the high-power, low-average bucket of sluggers, but one who goes much later in drafts than others who will provide similar production.
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23.
Christian Walker
ARI
Walker's power waned last season and his barrel rate dropped precipitously, but there were still plenty of things to like about his 2020 campaign. Notably, he cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 20.6% while raising his average to a strong .271. Walker is not, and is probably never going to be, a superstar fantasy asset. But he is a quiet producer who should help in four of the five rotisserie categories and is often overlooked. He's an ideal corner infielder for a team that needs steady production.
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24.
Trey Mancini
BAL
Mancini missed all of the 2020 season after being diagnosed with cancer, but appears to be healthy as we head into 2021. He had a breakout 2019 season during which he hit 35 home runs and slashed .291/.364/.535, and there's every reason to think that production is sustainable. Mancini had hit 24 home runs in each of the two previous seasons, and other than being a bit more selective at the plate, made few changes that suggest his 2019 production was fluky. Instead, it appeared to be the natural progression of a hitter improving on his already strong foundation. Batting in a great home park, Mancini should again be a four-category producer, and his ADP should rise if he shows he's fully healthy throughout the spring.
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25.
Yasmani Grandal
CWS
Grandal is getting up there in age for a catcher, and there were a few warning signs for the veteran. He struck out nearly 30% of the time last season, well above his typical rate, and his expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA were some of the worst of his career. At the same time, he continued to walk at a near-elite clip, and again provided plenty of power from a position where pop is hard to find. The good news for Grandal is that both his large contract and his elite pitch framing skills should keep him in the lineup as often as possible, which will help to pad his counting stats, though his recovery from a knee injury may cause Chicago to take it easy with him at the outset. He's just a tad outside of the elite range at the position, but he's a locked in fantasy starter.
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26.
Carlos Santana
KC
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27.
C.J. Cron
COL
Cron fits the Rockies' narrative perfectly, as he's a veteran hitter on a short-term deal who will block a younger player from playing. Nevertheless, Cron offers plenty of fantasy goodness if he does indeed win the first base job for Colorado as expected. He missed almost all of last year with a knee injury, but he had a 15% barrel rate and a .544 expected slugging percentage in 2019. He's practically free in drafts and could easily hit 30 home runs with a plus average. Draft him late everywhere you can.
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28.
Travis d'Arnaud
ATL
It took a long time but d'Arnaud has finally developed into one of the best hitting catchers in the game, as he was projected to be. It's difficult to quite buy what we saw last year, considering d'Arnaud's batting average (.321) and slugging percentage (.533) were miles ahead of his career marks, and even the numbers that he had put up in recent seasons. With that said, he'll bat in the middle of a strong Braves lineup and be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities, so 15 home runs with 55 RBI should be considered the floor for a healthy d'Arnaud. Those numbers aren't just passable, they're extremely strong for a catcher in fantasy, and he should be drafted as a relatively strong first catcher in mixed leagues.
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29.
Hunter Dozier
KC
Dozier is almost entirely off the fantasy radar this year, but that feels like an overreaction to 2020. Yes, his poor performance last year makes his breakout 2019 performance seem like an outlier, but really, it seems like 2020, rather than 2019, should be discounted. Dozier's quality of contact was awful last year, but it was out of character for him over the previous two seasons, and was more likely the result of him having tested positive for COVID-19 rather than from a sudden loss of skills. The Royals' lineup is sneaky deep, and Dozier will start at third base this season, giving him eligibility at three positions. Considering he's free in drafts, there is every reason to scoop him up with a late-round pick.
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30.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
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31.
Jared Walsh
LAA
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32.
Yuli Gurriel
HOU
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33.
Christian Vazquez
BOS
Vazquez was a late bloomer, but he's developed into one of the more reliable catchers in the game. Not only does he provide 20-homer power, but he's one of the best assets at catcher in both batting average and stolen bases. Entering his age-31 season, there's certainly the possibility for a major decline in his numbers, but there is little in his underlying metrics to suggest it is imminent. Draft Vazquez as a strong starter in single-catcher formats, and you won't need to do so before the double-digit rounds.
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34.
Mark Canha
OAK
Fantasy managers seem to have declared Canha's 2019 season as a fluke after he hit just five home run last year, but much of his 2020 seems to suggest 2019 was fairly legitimate. Canha built on his massive gains in walk rate in 2019 (13.5%) and increased it to 15.2%, and his quality of contact largely remained the same. He's got 20-homer power still, and he'll likely lead off or bat second for the A's. You won't need to pay much for him and given his average draft position, there's a high probability of a profit.
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35.
Andrew Vaughn
CWS
Vaughn's minor league numbers from 2019 don't jump off the page, but make no mistake, he has the talent to become an instant quality hitter in the majors. He raked all throughout his college career, and not only carries plenty of thump in his bat, but also has an excellent approach that should keep his batting average and OBP well above the league average. He looks more and more likely to win the everyday DH job for the White Sox, in which case, he'd be an absolute steal if you can get him outside the top 160 or so, which you should be able to do everywhere.
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36.
Joey Votto
CIN
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37.
Bobby Dalbec
BOS
If you like Miguel Sano, you'll absolutely love Dalbec. He crushes the ball routinely (it was a small sample, but he had a 22%(!) barrel rate last year in 23 games), strikes out a ton (42.4% rate last year), and is equally likely to look like the best player in baseball at times as he is to look like the worst. He'll be the everyday first baseman for the Red Sox this year which means plenty of counting stats with perhaps 30 home runs if he stays healthy the whole year. Just have batting average help elsewhere if you draft him, as he'll almost certainly provide negative value in that category.
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38.
Joc Pederson
CHC
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39.
Ryan McMahon
COL
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40.
Jeimer Candelario
DET
Candelario isn't going to wow you with his numbers, but he'll bat in the middle of the Tigers' order, has eligibility at first and third base, and improved his quality of contact greatly last year. You can try to write off his 2020 production as a product of the shortened season, but given his solid 2018 campaign, it looks more like 2019, and not 2020, was the outlier. Candelario probably tops out at 20 homers, but he should provide a decent average and be a fine bench player for most fantasy leagues.
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41.
Rowdy Tellez
TOR
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42.
Jesus Aguilar
MIA
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43.
Tommy La Stella
SF
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44.
Brandon Belt
SF
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45.
Austin Nola
SD
Nola has proven to be a quality bat for a catcher over the last two seasons, batting .271 with 17 home runs in 127 games over that span. He's in a great situation with the Padres, even if he will be batting at the bottom of the lineup, but a fractured finger will likely lead him to begin the season on the IL. Depending on how much time he'll miss, that could create a buying opportunity, as his ADP should drop a bit. As long he isn't projected to miss more than a couple of weeks, take the discount and enjoy premium production from the catcher position for the rest of the season.
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46.
Nate Lowe
TEX
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47.
Buster Posey
SF
Posey sat out the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic and concern for the health of his adopted daughters, but he returns this year for what is almost certainly his final season with the Giants and perhaps his career. Posey is in his age-34 season, ancient for a catcher, and he's coming off two seasons during which he totaled a .741 OPS and a .688 OPS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. But he's healthy and appears refreshed, and the changes to Oracle Park last year should work in his benefit now. He's outside the top-12 catchers, but you can get away with him in a one-catcher league in a pinch.
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48.
Evan White
SEA
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49.
Colin Moran
PIT
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50.
Miguel Cabrera
DET
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51.
Garrett Cooper
MIA
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52.
Wilmer Flores
SF
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53.
Renato Nunez
DET
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54.
Austin Slater
SF
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55.
Mitch Moreland
OAK
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56.
Yandy Diaz
TB
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57.
Edwin Rios
LAD
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58.
Josh Fuentes
COL
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59.
Niko Goodrum
DET
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60.
Asdrubal Cabrera
ARI
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61.
Ji-Man Choi
TB
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62.
Michael Chavis
BOS
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63.
Ronald Guzman
TEX
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64.
Daniel Vogelbach
MIL
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65.
Albert Pujols
LAA
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66.
Victor Caratini
SD
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67.
Mike Brosseau
TB
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68.
Jay Bruce
NYY
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69.
Marwin Gonzalez
BOS
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70.
Travis Shaw
MIL
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71.
Edwin Encarnacion
FA
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72.
Jake Bauers
CLE
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73.
Rio Ruiz
BAL
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74.
Spencer Torkelson
DET
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75.
Danny Santana
BOS
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76.
Bobby Bradley
CLE
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77.
Matt Beaty
LAD
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78.
Lewin Diaz
MIA
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79.
Pat Valaika
BAL
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80.
Aledmys Diaz
HOU
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81.
Mike Ford
NYY
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82.
Pavin Smith
ARI
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83.
Triston Casas
BOS
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84.
Jake Lamb
CWS
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85.
Michael Toglia
COL
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86.
Seth Beer
ARI
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87.
Pablo Sandoval
ATL
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88.
Aaron Sabato
MIN
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89.
Willians Astudillo
MIN
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90.
Todd Frazier
PIT
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91.
Sherten Apostel
TEX
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92.
Daniel Murphy
FA
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93.
Seth Brown
OAK
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94.
Kyle Farmer
CIN
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95.
Ryan McBroom
KC
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96.
Ryan Zimmerman
WSH
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97.
Bryce Ball
ATL
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98.
Justin Smoak
FA
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99.
Ehire Adrianza
ATL
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100.
Jedd Gyorko
FA
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101.
Chris Davis
BAL
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102.
Brock Holt
TEX
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103.
Ryan O'Hearn
KC
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104.
Josh VanMeter
ARI
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105.
Logan Morrison
FA
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106.
Charlie Culberson
TEX
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107.
John Hicks
TEX
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108.
Brandon Drury
NYM
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109.
Greg Bird
COL
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110.
Logan Forsythe
FA
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111.
Gerardo Parra
WSH
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112.
Matt Adams
COL
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113.
Justin Bour
SF
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114.
Neil Walker
FA
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115.
Hernan Perez
WSH
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116.
Phil Gosselin
LAA
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117.
Jordy Mercer
WSH
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118.
John Nogowski
STL
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119.
Derek Dietrich
NYY
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120.
Josh Ockimey
BOS
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121.
Gavin Sheets
CWS
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122.
Darick Hall
PHI
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123.
Austin Listi
PHI
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124.
Jake Noll
WSH
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125.
Matt Thaiss
LAA
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126.
Sam Travis
SEA
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127.
Will Craig
PIT
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128.
Tyler Nevin
BAL
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129.
Tyler White
TOR
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130.
Patrick Wisdom
CHC
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131.
Rob Refsnyder
MIN
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132.
Colton Shaver
HOU
|
|
133.
Cheslor Cuthbert
CIN
|
|
134.
Patrick Kivlehan
SD
|
|
|
135.
Drew Ward
DET
|
|
136.
Chris Shaw
BAL
|
|
|
137.
Juan Rivera
FA
|
