Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD
Tatis Jr. has a bit of a shoulder issue, but nothing suggests he'll need to miss any time. He had an outstanding rookie year, but because he had outperformed his Statcast data so significantly, many fantasy managers were worried that his numbers would regress in 2020. Although his batting average did come down (to a still respectable .277), he not only staved off regression, but he improved significantly in most areas. He cut his strikeout rate by 6%, upped his walk rate by 2.5%, and led the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. The fact that he's likely to throw in 25-30 steals over the course of a full season is just the cherry on top of elite fantasy production. He's a top-five overall pick with little or no downside and massive upside even off his incredible 2020 numbers, so long a there are no further developments with his shoulder.
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2.
Trea Turner
WSH
Turner was the best version of himself in 2020, slashing his strikeout rate to below 14% and setting career bests in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+. Above all, Turner locks down two incredibly scarce categories for fantasy managers, stolen bases and batting average, while offering production in the other three hitting categories. Still just entering his age-28 season, Turner is in the prime of his career, and should continue to put up stellar numbers. He's a top-eight pick in rotisserie leagues.
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3.
Trevor Story
COL
Story had his usual stellar year in 2020, putting up strong overall numbers and offering a rare power and speed combination. As usual, he greatly outperformed his expected statistics, but that's been the norm for Story throughout his career and isn't all that unexpected since he plays in Colorado. Story is entering his walk year, so the chances of a trade, which would diminish his value, remain a possibility. But there are few safer players in the game as of this moment, and he's a locked-in first round pick. The only question surrounding Story is whether he or Trea Turner should be the first shortstop selected in drafts.
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4.
Francisco Lindor
NYM
Lindor's season wasn't particularly impressive, as his surface numbers regressed fairly significantly from his previous three seasons. But, under the hood, not much changed. His walk rate and strikeout rate were largely steady, and his statcast data remained on par with his career marks. He also got much better to close the year, batting .285 with a 122 wRC+ over his final 39 games. Just 27 years old and now with a stronger lineup with the Mets, Lindor should put up numbers closer to his 2017-2019 levels, especially since he'll be playing for a new contract after this season. He'll come at a bit of a discount in the second round this year, and he's well worth your investment at that price.
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5.
Bo Bichette
TOR
Bichette missed about half the season with a knee injury last year, but was productive when he was on the field, batting .301 with an .840 OPS. His 162-game pace was 28 home runs, 100 runs, 128 RBI, and 22 steals, so he was well on his way to earning his lofty draft price. If there was a wart to Bichette's season it was that his walk rate dropped to just 3.9%, one of the worst in the league. But, given that he had just 128 plate appearances, that's likely just the product of a small sample size, since he never walked at less than a 6.6% clip in his career. Batting in a stacked lineup, Bichette should once again put up strong five-category numbers, and should be one of the first shortstops drafted in fantasy leagues again in 2020.
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6.
Xander Bogaerts
BOS
Bogaerts largely backed up his excellent 2019 season with a strong 2020 campaign. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard and his launch angle dropped, but he did manage to maintain his .300 average and put up a similar home run pace. Two things from last year stand out and probably shouldn't be written off entirely: first, Bogaerts' RBI pace dropped significantly, and considering that the Red Sox lineup went from a relative strength to a weakness, it seems unlikely he'll approach 100 RBI in 2021. Second, after dropping for three consecutive seasons, Bogaerts' steal pace increased to the highest of his career. The drop in RBI and increase in steals may be related, as Bogaerts likely looked to manufacture runs with less help around him. Both trends are worth projecting going forward, and while Bogaerts' value doesn't change much, fantasy managers will likely take the increase in steals going forward.
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7.
Corey Seager
LAD
2020 was essentially a perfect season for Seager. More than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, he morphed into the player that most people expected him to be at this stage of his career. Seager increased his barrel rate from 7.3% to 15.8%, his average exit velocity from 88.8 MPH to 93.2 MPH, and his hard hit percentage from 38.2% to a remarkable 55.9%. Seager's 2020 season does not look fluky, but rather the product of a highly-touted prospect being fully recovered from injury and entering his prime. Seager may not reach the nearly 50-homers he was on pace to hit last year, but a 30-homer season with above a .300 average is well within reach. In other words, his performance over the shortened season is not one to write off.
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8.
Tim Anderson
CWS
Anderson doesn't seem like he should be that valuable in fantasy. He doesn't have a ton of power, he rarely walks, and his quality of contact is nothing to write home about. But he's hit .335 and .322 the last two seasons, and although both numbers significantly surpass his xBA, it's clear that Anderson is going to be a plus value in that category. He won't excel in any other area, but he will chip in about 20 homers and 15-20 steals which, along with his batting average, makes him an excellent value given that his ADP is always in check.
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9.
Adalberto Mondesi
KC
Mondesi will begin the year on the 10-day IL with a strained oblique. When healthy, however, there's no reason to doubt his performance. Even in a shortened year, it was a tale of two seasons for Mondesi. In 35 games in July and August, he batted just .186 with 11 runs, two RBI, no home runs, and eight steals. In his final 24 games, he batted .356 with six home runs, 22 runs scored, 20 RBI, and 16 steals. In the end, Mondesi delivered exactly the type of season that fantasy managers have come to expect, and his 24 steals were eight more than the next highest total. Mondesi won't help in batting average and offers minimal power, but he's an unmatched source of steals. And given that much of his lackluster first month can probably be written off to offseason shoulder surgery, fantasy managers should be able to expect closer to the second-half version of Mondesi rather than the first this year.
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10.
Manny Machado
SD
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
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11.
Gleyber Torres
NYY
Torres missed some time with quad and hamstring strains last season, but his year was an absolute disaster even without it. He batted just .243 and hit a mere three home runs in 160 plate appearances. The culprit was that he was reportedly out of shape, a byproduct of the long layoff between the original spring training and when baseball resumed months later. There's every reason to buy into the excuse given Torres' track record, especially since he bounced back a bit in September and October with an .842 OPS. Expect more typical numbers from Torres this year, meaning around a .270 average, 30 home runs, and plenty of counting stats. Given his ADP, he's likely to be a bargain this year.
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12.
Javier Baez
CHC
Everything went wrong for Baez in 2020. His already high strikeout rate increased to 31.9%. His already low walk rated fell to an abysmal 3.0%. He swung less, made contact less, and did not hit the ball as hard as he used to. In the end, Baez earned every bit of his .203 batting average and poor counting stats. But how much weight do you put into a 59-game stretch for a veteran like Baez, particularly when he complained that his inability to watch video between at-bats affected his overall performance. The answer is a little, but not all that much. Baez had a stellar three-year run as a reliable power-speed combination, and he'll be just 28 years old this season. The Cubs lineup won't be overly strong, but Baez should certainly put up numbers closer to his 2017-2019 totals than those he put up in 2020.
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13.
Alex Bregman
HOU
2020 was just a bad season for Bregman, plain and simple. He missed time with a hamstring injury, and generally regressed in every major statistical category. Considering that Bregman will be just 27 years old on Opening Day and had batted .291 with 72 home runs combined over the previous two seasons, fantasy managers can probably just throw out most of what they saw from him in 2020. He'll continue to be an upper echelon option at third base and considering his strong walk and strikeout rates, an even better one in points leagues. He's been battling a hamstring issue for most of camp, but as of now, he doesn't look like he'll miss much, if any, time, so draft him accordingly.
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14.
Dansby Swanson
ATL
Swanson's four-year trend in OPS is .636, .699, .748, and finally .809 last season. There's little to dislike about his profile at this stage in his career. He makes consistently good contact, has improved his launch angle enough to where that contact translates into home runs, and his walk and strikeout rates are strong enough so that his batting average should remain a benefit to fantasy managers. He also ranked in the 90th percentile in sprint speed last season, so he should reach double digits in stolen bases this year, as he had done in the two years prior to 2020's shortened season. In short, Swanson's skill level and output should no longer be in doubt, and he makes a strong starting option at the shortstop position.
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15.
Carlos Correa
HOU
There's still plenty of upside with Correa, as he showed when he hit 21 home runs and drove in 59 runs in just 75 games in 2019 and went on a postseason tear last year. But he's also one of the bigger injury risks in the game, given that he hasn't topped 109 games played since 2016. The steal potential that he showed early in his career is gone after he struggled with back issues, as he hasn't stolen more than three bases in any of his last four seasons. That leaves Correa as someone who will likely contribute, but not excel, in four areas. With his upside, there's still a lot to like about his fantasy outlook. But realistically, with a different name on the back of his jersey, he'd probably go several picks later than he does.
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16.
Eugenio Suarez
CIN
Suarez's power numbers were again strong in last year's shortened season, but his batting average plummeted to just .202. He hit the ball as hard as ever, however, and ranked in the top 9% of the league in average exit velocity. Suarez's BABIP was just .214 (he has a .310 mark), and although he hit more fly balls than usual, there's nothing to suggest that his batting average should have fallen off a cliff. In other words, there's plenty of reason to expect Suarez to hit closer to his .261 career batting average this year. Add to that his potential for 40 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI, and he'll likely be a value in this year's draft.
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17.
Marcus Semien
TOR
Semien looked like he had made some major and sustainable gains in 2019, cutting his strikeout rate way down and being far more selective, which led to better contact. Unfortunately, Semien looked a lot like the old version of himself in 2020, with a strikeout rate over 20% and similar mediocre contact to that which he had made consistently prior to 2019. He signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays, which is a great landing spot for him, as he'll likely bat near the top of a strong lineup, see an upgrade in home park, and earn second base eligibility. That makes Semien far more enticing as a potential draft-day target, but he should still be considered only a middle infield option in mixed leagues.
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18.
Didi Gregorius
PHI
From a fantasy standpoint, Gregorius isn't special. He doesn't walk much, he's injury prone, and his Statcast data from 2020 was downright awful. But there is no denying that Gregorius knows how to take advantage of his home parks, first Yankee Stadium, and now Citizens Bank Park. With Gregorius back with the Phillies, you should again bank on his typical 25-homer power, good counting stats, and a handful of steals. Considering that he's rarely someone who fantasy managers target, his ADP will likely remain discounted, and he's a fine fallback option if you miss out on most of the early- or mid-round options.
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19.
Ketel Marte
ARI
Most fantasy managers expected regression from Marte after his breakout 2019 season, but few saw last year coming. Marte hit two homeruns in his 45 games, and contributed minimally elsewhere other than batting average. His walk rate dropped to a miniscule 3.6%, and although he struck out less than ever, the quality of his contact was overwhelmingly poor. Truth be told, both 2019 and 2020 are probably outliers for Marte, and the truth probably lies somewhere between his 2018 (.260/.332/.437) and 2019 (.329/.389/.592) seasons. Those numbers will play at second base, especially given Marte's draft cost, but give up dreams of him hitting 32 home runs ever again.
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20.
Tommy Edman
STL
After a highly successful 2019 season in which he hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in 92 games, Edman's numbers regressed in nearly every meaningful way last year. His batting average slipped from .304 to just .250, he hit just five home runs, and he went 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Edman was a bit unlucky last year, as his xBA and xSLG outperformed his actual numbers. And despite his down year on the basepaths, he was in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He's likely to lead off for the Cardinals this year, and should be good for double digits in both home runs and steals, with plenty of runs scored. Considering he has multi-position eligibility, he should be drafted before the double-digit rounds.
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21.
Paul DeJong
STL
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22.
Jorge Polanco
MIN
Polanco has generally been a bit underrated in his career, but the fantasy community seems to have abandoned him in full after 2020. But there's little reason to do so. Polanco should gain second base eligibility quickly this year, as he moves over to accommodate Andrelton Simmons at shortstop. Polanco's quality of contact isn't great, but he rarely strikes out, doesn't hurt you in batting average, and has enough speed to throw in a handful of steals. With soon-to-be multi-position eligibility, he's an ideal bench candidate.
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23.
Andres Gimenez
CLE
Gimenez was one of the main pieces in the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco trade, and he looks like he'll be the starting shortstop for Cleveland on Opening Day. There's not a ton of power in his bat, but he has a ton of speed. He ranked in the 94th percentile in sprint speed last season, and stole eight bases in 49 games in 2020 and 28 in 117 games in Triple-A the year before. His ADP is rising as his job security grows, but it's worth it for the steals he will provide.
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24.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
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25.
Dylan Moore
SEA
Moore hit .255 with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 38 games last year. Despite not having an abundance of speed, Moore's stolen base prowess is real, as he stole 96 bases over 447 minor league games at a 77% clip and ranked in the 71st percentile in sprint speed last year. And he cut his strikeout rate to a high but manageable 27% last year, and his barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity were all well above average. But Moore has struggled against righties for much of his time in the majors, and despite his success last year, is unlikely to have a long leash with Shed Long waiting in the wings. Moore has upside and multi-position eligibility to go along with his power and speed. Just have a backup plan ready to go.
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26.
Jean Segura
PHI
Segura's strikeout rate ballooned last season to above 20%, though his walk rate also took a corresponding jump. But other than that, there wasn't much notable or exciting about his season. He ran a bit less than usual in the shortened year, but he still ranked in the 87th percentile in sprint speed, suggesting that the stolen base potential is still there if he wants to take it. The bigger issue with Segura as he enters his age-31 season is that there's almost no upside, as he'll bat near the bottom of the order and has established a fairly firm ceiling in his career. He's a borderline startable middle infielder in mixed leagues, but nothing more.
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27.
Chris Taylor
LAD
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28.
David Fletcher
LAA
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29.
Gavin Lux
LAD
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30.
Willi Castro
DET
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31.
Willy Adames
MIL
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32.
Jonathan Villar
NYM
Villar's quality of contact dropped significantly last year, but given how out of character it was for his career, the decline can probably be written off to the small sample of the shortened season. But he was still one of the league leaders in stolen bases with 16 and he showed no hesitation about running whenever he got the chance. The bigger issue is that Villar won't have a regular role now that he's with the Mets, but instead will be a super-utility player. With that said, Villar's versatility should allow him to see a few starts each week, and he should see action as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. All that to say that Villar should tack on 15-20 steals over the course of the season, and therefore make a viable middle infield option despite his lack of a regular role.
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33.
Ha-Seong Kim
SD
Kim joins a loaded Padres team after a successful career in the KBO. He had a particularly strong 2020 season, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs and 23 steals. Although he split time between shortstop and third base in the KBO, he should likely man second for the Padres, which is better for his fantasy value given the relative lack of strength of the position (though the signing of Jurickson Profar does add a few question marks). Kim is younger than most hitters coming over from the KBO - only 25 - and he has the speed and power to reach double digits in steals and homers pretty easily. But he's more of a 15-15 type of player, rather than the potential 30-25 he was last year, and he'll likely bat near the bottom of the order, limiting his plate appearance and runs and RBI opportunities. Draft him as a middle infield option, but with upside.
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34.
Elvis Andrus
OAK
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35.
Garrett Hampson
COL
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36.
Wander Franco
TB
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37.
Amed Rosario
CLE
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38.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
TEX
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39.
Jon Berti
MIA
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40.
Myles Straw
HOU
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41.
Nick Ahmed
ARI
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42.
Mauricio Dubon
SF
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43.
Andrelton Simmons
MIN
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44.
Joey Wendle
TB
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45.
Kike Hernandez
BOS
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46.
Miguel Rojas
MIA
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47.
Jose Iglesias
LAA
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48.
Josh Rojas
ARI
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49.
J.P. Crawford
SEA
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50.
Kevin Newman
PIT
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51.
Donovan Solano
SF
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52.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
MIA
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53.
Nico Hoerner
CHC
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54.
Niko Goodrum
DET
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55.
Scott Kingery
PHI
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56.
Brendan Rodgers
COL
Rodgers was the favorite for the second base job in Colorado and was having a blistering spring, slashing .348/.400/.652 in 10 games. But he suffered a hamstring strain and now is expected to miss a month. Rodgers is still a post-hype sleeper and he will be free in drafts at this point. As an upside bench piece with speed, he's worth a shot, but not as anything more.
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57.
Luis Urias
MIL
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58.
Freddy Galvis
BAL
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59.
Brandon Crawford
SF
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60.
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC
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61.
Orlando Arcia
ATL
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62.
Carter Kieboom
WSH
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63.
Jeter Downs
BOS
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64.
Anderson Tejeda
TEX
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65.
Leury Garcia
CWS
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66.
Cole Tucker
PIT
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67.
Jose Barrero
CIN
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68.
Nicky Lopez
KC
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69.
Danny Santana
BOS
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70.
Luis Guillorme
NYM
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71.
Johan Camargo
ATL
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72.
Austin Martin
TOR
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73.
Kyle Farmer
CIN
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74.
Pat Valaika
BAL
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75.
Erik Gonzalez
PIT
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76.
Mike Freeman
CIN
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77.
Marco Luciano
SF
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78.
Ramon Urias
BAL
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79.
CJ Abrams
SD
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80.
Royce Lewis
MIN
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81.
Ehire Adrianza
ATL
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82.
Noelvi Marte
SEA
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83.
Daniel Robertson
MIL
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84.
Tyler Wade
NYY
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85.
Chris Owings
COL
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86.
Jordan Groshans
TOR
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87.
Charlie Culberson
TEX
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88.
Robert Puason
OAK
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89.
Jose Peraza
NYM
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90.
Nick Gonzales
PIT
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91.
Orelvis Martinez
TOR
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92.
Richie Martin
BAL
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93.
Aaron Bracho
CLE
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94.
Oneil Cruz
PIT
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95.
Logan Forsythe
MIL
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96.
Yairo Munoz
BOS
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97.
Joe Panik
MIA
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98.
Ronny Mauricio
NYM
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99.
Edmundo Sosa
STL
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100.
Geraldo Perdomo
ARI
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101.
Luis Rengifo
LAA
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102.
Carlos Colmenarez
TB
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103.
Zack Cozart
FA
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104.
Brayan Rocchio
CLE
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105.
Xavier Edwards
TB
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106.
Vimael Machin
OAK
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107.
Maximo Acosta
TEX
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108.
Rodolfo Castro
PIT
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109.
Wilman Diaz
LAD
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110.
Ed Howard
CHC
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111.
Bret Boswell
COL
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112.
Hernan Perez
FA
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113.
Luisangel Acuna
TEX
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114.
Tyler Freeman
CLE
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115.
Yu Chang
CLE
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116.
Cristian Hernandez
CHC
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117.
Tim Beckham
CWS
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118.
Greg Jones
TB
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119.
Jordy Mercer
WSH
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120.
Liover Peguero
PIT
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121.
Lucius Fox
KC
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122.
Reginald Preciado
SD
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123.
Luis Toribio
SF
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124.
Andrew Velazquez
NYY
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125.
Braden Shewmake
ATL
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126.
Santiago Espinal
TOR
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127.
Jeremiah Jackson
LAA
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128.
C.J. Chatham
PHI
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129.
Kyle Holder
NYY
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130.
Tucupita Marcano
SD
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131.
Ronald Torreyes
PHI
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132.
JT Riddle
MIN
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133.
Jack Mayfield
LAA
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134.
Wilmer Difo
PIT
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135.
Donovan Walton
SEA
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136.
Sean Rodriguez
FA
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137.
Nick Gordon
MIN
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138.
Owen Miller
CLE
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139.
Taylor Walls
TB
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140.
Zack Short
DET
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141.
Omar Estevez
LAD
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142.
Domingo Leyba
BAL
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143.
Richard Urena
BAL
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144.
Max Moroff
STL
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145.
Kramer Robertson
STL
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146.
Tzu-Wei Lin
MIN
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147.
Kevin Smith
TOR
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148.
Nick Maton
PHI
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149.
Andrew Romine
FA
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150.
Ryan Goins
CWS
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151.
Pedro Florimon
SD
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152.
Alfredo Rodriguez
CIN
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153.
Alex De Goti
HOU
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154.
Ernie Clement
CLE
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155.
Gordon Beckham
FA
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156.
Yadiel Rivera
HOU
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157.
Abiatal Avelino
CHC
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158.
Pete Kozma
OAK
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159.
Jeison Guzman
KC
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160.
Nick Allen
OAK
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161.
Jose Rondon
STL
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162.
Nate Orf
FA
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163.
Esteban Quiroz
TB
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