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Fantasy Baseball Player Notes

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes

Fernando Tatis Jr. Note
Fernando Tatis Jr. photo 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Tatis Jr. had an outstanding rookie year, but because he had outperformed his statcast data so significantly, many fantasy managers were worried that his numbers would regress in 2020. Although his batting average did come down (to a still respectable .277), he not only staved off regression, but he improved significantly in most areas. He cut his strikeout rate by 6%, upped his walk rate by 2.5%, and led the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. The fact that he's likely to throw in 25-30 steals over the course of a full season is just the cherry on top of elite fantasy production. He's a top-five overall pick with little or no downside and massive upside even off his incredible 2020 numbers.
2 days ago
Trea Turner Note
Trea Turner photo 2. Trea Turner WSH
Turner was the best version of himself in 2020, slashing his strikeout rate to below 14% and setting career bests in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+. Above all, Turner locks down two incredibly scarce categories for fantasy managers, stolen bases and batting average, while offering production in the other three hitting categories. Still just entering his age-28 season, Turner is in the prime of his career, and should continue to put up stellar numbers. He's a top-eight pick in rotisserie leagues.
2 days ago
Trevor Story Note
Trevor Story photo 3. Trevor Story COL
Story had his usual stellar year in 2020, putting up strong overall numbers and offering a rare power and speed combination. As usual, he greatly outperformed his expected statistics, but that's been the norm for Story throughout his career and isn't all that unexpected since he plays in Colorado. Story is entering his walk year, so the chances of a trade, which would diminish his value, remain a possibility. But there are few safer players in the game as of this moment, and he's a locked-in first round pick. The only question surrounding Story is whether he or Trea Turner should be the first shortstop selected in drafts.
2 days ago
Francisco Lindor Note
Francisco Lindor photo 4. Francisco Lindor NYM
Lindor's season wasn't particularly impressive, as his surface numbers regressed fairly significantly from his previous three seasons. But, under the hood, not much changed. His walk rate and strikeout rate were largely steady, and his statcast data remained on par with his career marks. He also got much better to close the year, batting .285 with a 122 wRC+ over his final 39 games. Just 27 years old and now with a stronger lineup with the Mets, Lindor should put up numbers closer to his 2017-2019 levels, especially since he'll be playing for a new contract after this season. He'll come at a bit of a discount in the second round this year, and he's well worth your investment at that price.
2 days ago
Bo Bichette Note
Bo Bichette photo 5. Bo Bichette TOR
Bichette missed about half the season with a knee injury last year, but was productive when he was on the field, batting .301 with an .840 OPS. His 162-game pace was 28 home runs, 100 runs, 128 RBI, and 22 steals, so he was well on his way to earning his lofty draft price. If there was a wart to Bichette's season it was that his walk rate dropped to just 3.9%, one of the worst in the league. But, given that he had just 128 plate appearances, that's likely just the product of a small sample size, since he never walked at less than a 6.6% clip in his career. Batting in a stacked lineup, Bichette should once again put up strong five-category numbers, and should be one of the first shortstops drafted in fantasy leagues again in 2020.
2 days ago
Xander Bogaerts Note
Xander Bogaerts photo 6. Xander Bogaerts BOS
Bogaerts largely backed up his excellent 2019 season with a strong 2020 campaign. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard and his launch angle dropped, but he did manage to maintain his .300 average and put up a similar home run pace. Two things from last year stand out and probably shouldn't be written off entirely: first, Bogaerts' RBI pace dropped significantly, and considering that the Red Sox lineup went from a relative strength to a weakness, it seems unlikely he'll approach 100 RBI in 2021. Second, after dropping for three consecutive seasons, Bogaerts' steal pace increased to the highest of his career. The drop in RBI and increase in steals may be related, as Bogaerts likely looked to manufacture runs with less help around him. Both trends are worth projecting going forward, and while Bogaerts' value doesn't change much, fantasy managers will likely take the increase in steals going forward.
2 days ago
Adalberto Mondesi Note
Adalberto Mondesi photo 7. Adalberto Mondesi KC
Even in a shortened year, it was a tale of two seasons for Mondesi. In 35 games in July and August, he batted just .186 with 11 runs, two RBI, no home runs, and eight steals. In his final 24 games, he batted .356 with six home runs, 22 runs scored, 20 RBI, and 16 steals. In the end, Mondesi delivered exactly the type of season that fantasy managers have come to expect, and his 24 steals were eight more than the next highest total. Mondesi won't help in batting average and offers minimal power, but he's an unmatched source of steals. And given that much of his lackluster first month can probably be written off to offseason shoulder surgery, fantasy managers should be able to expect closer to the second-half version of Mondesi rather than the firs this year.
2 days ago
Corey Seager Note
Corey Seager photo 8. Corey Seager LAD
2020 was essentially a perfect season for Seager. More than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, he morphed into the player that most people expected him to be at this stage of his career. Seager increased his barrel rate from 7.3% to 15.8%, his average exit velocity from 88.8 MPH to 93.2 MPH, and his hard hit percentage from 38.2% to a remarkable 55.9%. Seager's 2020 season does not look fluky, but rather the product of a highly-touted prospect being fully recovered from injury and entering his prime. Seager may not reach the nearly 50-homers he was on pace to hit last year, but a 30-homer season with above a .300 average is well within reach. In other words, his performance over the shortened season is not one to write off.
2 days ago
Tim Anderson Note
Tim Anderson photo 9. Tim Anderson CWS
Anderson doesn't seem like he should be that valuable in fantasy. He doesn't have a ton of power, he rarely walks, and his quality of contact is nothing to write home about. But he's hit .335 and .322 the last two seasons, and although both numbers significantly surpass his xBA, it's clear that Anderson is going to be a plus value in that category. He won't excel in any other area, but he will chip in about 20 homers and 15-20 steals which, along with his batting average, makes him an excellent value given that his ADP is always in check.
2 days ago
Gleyber Torres Note
Gleyber Torres photo 10. Gleyber Torres NYY
Torres missed some time with quad and hamstring strains last season, but his year was an absolute disaster even without it. He batted just .243 and hit a mere three home runs in 160 plate appearances. The culprit was that he was reportedly out of shape, a byproduct of the long layoff between the original spring training and when baseball resumed months later. There's every reason to buy into the excuse given Torres' track record, especially since he bounced back a bit in September and October with an .842 OPS. Expect more typical numbers from Torres this year, meaning around a .270 average, 30 home runs, and plenty of counting stats. Given his ADP, he's likely to be a bargain this year.
2 days ago
Javier Baez Note
Javier Baez photo 11. Javier Baez CHC
Everything went wrong for Baez in 2020. His already high strikeout rate increased to 31.9%. His already low walk rated fell to an abysmal 3.0%. He swung less, made contact less, and did not hit the ball as hard as he used to. In the end, Baez earned every bit of his .203 batting average and poor counting stats. But how much weight do you put into a 59-game stretch for a veteran like Baez, particularly when he complained that his inability to watch video between at-bats affected his overall performance. The answer is a little, but not all that much. Baez had a stellar three-year run as a reliable power-speed combination, and he'll be just 28 years old this season. The Cubs lineup won't be overly strong, but Baez should certainly put up numbers closer to his 2017-2019 totals than those he put up in 2020.
2 days ago
Manny Machado Note
Manny Machado photo 12. Manny Machado SD
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
2 days ago
Dansby Swanson Note
Dansby Swanson photo 13. Dansby Swanson ATL
Swanson's four-year trend in OPS is .636, .699, .748, and finally .809 last season. There's little to dislike about his profile at this stage in his career. He makes consistently good contact, has improved his launch angle enough to where that contact translates into home runs, and his walk and strikeout rates are strong enough so that his batting average should remain a benefit to fantasy managers. He also ranked in the 90th percentile in sprint speed last season, so he should reach double digits in stolen bases this year, as he had done in the two years prior to 2020's shortened season. In short, Swanson's skill level and output should no longer be in doubt, and he makes a strong starting option at the shortstop position.
2 days ago
Carlos Correa Note
Carlos Correa photo 14. Carlos Correa HOU
There's still plenty of upside with Correa, as he showed when he hit 21 home runs and drove in 59 runs in just 75 games in 2019 and went on a postseason tear last year. But he's also one of the bigger injury risks in the game, given that he hasn't topped 109 games played since 2016. The steal potential that he showed early in his career is gone after he struggled with back issues, as he hasn't stolen more than three bases in any of his last four seasons. That leaves Correa as someone who will likely contribute, but not excel, in four areas. With his upside, there's still a lot to like about his fantasy outlook. But realistically, with a different name on the back of his jersey, he'd probably go several picks later than he does.
2 days ago
Marcus Semien Note
Marcus Semien photo 15. Marcus Semien TOR
Semien looked like he had made some major and sustainable gains in 2019, cutting his strikeout rate way down and being far more selective, which led to better contact. Unfortunately, Semien looked a lot like the old version of himself in 2020, with a strikeout rate over 20% and similar mediocre contact to that which he had made consistently prior to 2019. He signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays, which is a great landing spot for him, as he'll likely bat near the top of a strong lineup, see an upgrade in home park, and earn second base eligibility. That makes Semien far more enticing as a potential draft-day target, but he should still be considered only a middle infield option in mixed leagues.
2 days ago
Didi Gregorius Note
Didi Gregorius photo 16. Didi Gregorius PHI
From a fantasy standpoint, Gregorius isn't special. He doesn't walk much, he's injury prone, and his Statcast data from 2020 was downright awful. But there is no denying that Gregorius knows how to take advantage of his home parks, first Yankee Stadium, and now Citizens Bank Park. With Gregorius back with the Phillies, you should again bank on his typical 25-homer power, good counting stats, and a handful of steals. Considering that he's rarely someone who fantasy managers target, his ADP will likely remain discounted, and he's a fine fallback option if you miss out on most of the early- or mid-round options.
2 days ago
Alex Bregman Note
Alex Bregman photo 17. Alex Bregman HOU
2020 was just a bad season for Bregman, plain and simple. He missed time with a hamstring injury, and generally regressed in every major statistical category. Considering that Bregman will be just 27 years old on Opening Day and had batted .291 with 72 home runs combined over the previous two seasons, fantasy managers can probably just throw out most of what they saw from him in 2020. He'll continue to be an upper echelon option at third base and considering his strong walk and strikeout rates, an even better one in points leagues.
2 days ago
Tommy Edman Note
Tommy Edman photo 18. Tommy Edman STL
After a highly successful 2019 season in which he hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in 92 games, Edman's numbers regressed in nearly every meaningful way last year. His batting average slipped from .304 to just .250, he hit just five home runs, and he went 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Edman was a bit unlucky last year, as his xBA and xSLG outperformed his actual numbers. And despite his down year on the basepaths, he was in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He's likely to lead off for the Cardinals this year, and should be good for double digits in both home runs and steals, with plenty of runs scored. Considering he has multi-position eligibility, he should be drafted before the double-digit rounds.
2 days ago
Ketel Marte Note
Ketel Marte photo 19. Ketel Marte ARI
Most fantasy managers expected regression from Marte after his breakout 2019 season, but few saw last year coming. Marte hit two homeruns in his 45 games, and contributed minimally elsewhere other than batting average. His walk rate dropped to a miniscule 3.6%, and although he struck out less than ever, the quality of his contact was overwhelmingly poor. Truth be told, both 2019 and 2020 are probably outliers for Marte, and the truth probably lies somewhere between his 2018 (.260/.332/.437) and 2019 (.329/.389/.592) seasons. Those numbers will play at second base, especially given Marte's draft cost, but give up dreams of him hitting 32 home runs ever again.
2 days ago
Jorge Polanco Note
Jorge Polanco photo 20. Jorge Polanco MIN
Polanco has generally been a bit underrated in his career, but the fantasy community seems to have abandoned him in full after 2020. But there's little reason to do so. Polanco should gain second base eligibility quickly this year, as he moves over to accommodate Andrelton Simmons at shortstop. Polanco's quality of contact isn't great, but he rarely strikes out, doesn't hurt you in batting average, and has enough speed to throw in a handful of steals. With soon-to-be multi-position eligibility, he's an ideal bench candidate.
2 days ago
Paul DeJong Note
Paul DeJong photo 21. Paul DeJong STL
Jake Cronenworth Note
Jake Cronenworth photo 22. Jake Cronenworth SD
Jonathan Villar Note
Jonathan Villar photo 23. Jonathan Villar NYM
David Fletcher Note
David Fletcher photo 24. David Fletcher LAA
Chris Taylor Note
Chris Taylor photo 25. Chris Taylor LAD
Dylan Moore Note
Dylan Moore photo 26. Dylan Moore SEA
Moore hit .255 with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 38 games last year. Despite not having an abundance of speed, Moore's stolen base prowess is real, as he stole 96 bases over 447 minor league games at a 77% clip and ranked in the 71st percentile in sprint speed last year. And he cut his strikeout rate to a high but manageable 27% last year, and his barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity were all well above average. But Moore has struggled against righties for much of his time in the majors, and despite his success last year, is unlikely to have a long leash with Shed Long waiting in the wings. Moore has upside and multi-position eligibility to go along with his power and speed. Just have a backup plan ready to go.
2 days ago
Jean Segura Note
Jean Segura photo 27. Jean Segura PHI
Segura's strikeout rate ballooned last season to above 20%, though his walk rate also took a corresponding jump. But other than that, there wasn't much notable or exciting about his season. He ran a bit less than usual in the shortened year, but he still ranked in the 87th percentile in sprint speed, suggesting that the stolen base potential is still there if he wants to take it. The bigger issue with Segura as he enters his age-31 season is that there's almost no upside, as he'll bat near the bottom of the order and has established a fairly firm ceiling in his career. He's a borderline startable middle infielder in mixed leagues, but nothing more.
2 days ago
Andres Gimenez Note
Andres Gimenez photo 28. Andres Gimenez CLE
Willi Castro Note
Willi Castro photo 29. Willi Castro DET
Ha-seong Kim Note
Ha-seong Kim photo 30. Ha-seong Kim SD
Kim joins a loaded Padres team after a successful career in the KBO. He had a particularly strong 2020 season, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs and 23 steals. Although he split time between shortstop and third base in the KBO, he should likely man second for the Padres, which is better for his fantasy value given the relative lack of strength of the position (though the signing of Jurickson Profar does add a few question marks). Kim is younger than most hitters coming over from the KBO - only 25 - and he has the speed and power to reach double digits in steals and homers pretty easily. But he's more of a 15-15 type of player, rather than the potential 30-25 he was last year, and he'll likely bat near the bottom of the order, limiting his plate appearance and runs and RBI opportunities. Draft him as a middle infield option, but with upside.
2 days ago
Willy Adames Note
Willy Adames photo 31. Willy Adames TB
Amed Rosario Note
Amed Rosario photo 32. Amed Rosario CLE
Wander Franco Note
Wander Franco photo 33. Wander Franco TB
Elvis Andrus Note
Elvis Andrus photo 34. Elvis Andrus OAK
Garrett Hampson Note
Garrett Hampson photo 35. Garrett Hampson COL
Nick Ahmed Note
Nick Ahmed photo 36. Nick Ahmed ARI
Jon Berti Note
Jon Berti photo 37. Jon Berti MIA
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Note
Isiah Kiner-Falefa photo 38. Isiah Kiner-Falefa TEX
Andrelton Simmons Note
Andrelton Simmons photo 39. Andrelton Simmons MIN
Joey Wendle Note
Joey Wendle photo 40. Joey Wendle TB
Mauricio Dubon Note
Mauricio Dubon photo 41. Mauricio Dubon SF
Jose Iglesias Note
Jose Iglesias photo 42. Jose Iglesias LAA
Miguel Rojas Note
Miguel Rojas photo 43. Miguel Rojas MIA
Scott Kingery Note
Scott Kingery photo 44. Scott Kingery PHI
J.P. Crawford Note
J.P. Crawford photo 45. J.P. Crawford SEA
Niko Goodrum Note
Niko Goodrum photo 46. Niko Goodrum DET
Myles Straw Note
Myles Straw photo 47. Myles Straw HOU
Nico Hoerner Note
Nico Hoerner photo 48. Nico Hoerner CHC
Kevin Newman Note
Kevin Newman photo 49. Kevin Newman PIT
Kike Hernandez Note
Kike Hernandez photo 50. Kike Hernandez BOS
Donovan Solano Note
Donovan Solano photo 51. Donovan Solano SF
Brendan Rodgers Note
Brendan Rodgers photo 52. Brendan Rodgers COL
Brandon Crawford Note
Brandon Crawford photo 53. Brandon Crawford SF
Orlando Arcia Note
Orlando Arcia photo 54. Orlando Arcia MIL
Carter Kieboom Note
Carter Kieboom photo 55. Carter Kieboom WSH
Luis Urias Note
Luis Urias photo 56. Luis Urias MIL
Jazz Chisholm Note
Jazz Chisholm photo 57. Jazz Chisholm MIA
Jeter Downs Note
Jeter Downs photo 58. Jeter Downs BOS
Anderson Tejeda Note
Anderson Tejeda photo 59. Anderson Tejeda TEX
Freddy Galvis Note
Freddy Galvis photo 60. Freddy Galvis BAL
Royce Lewis Note
Royce Lewis photo 61. Royce Lewis MIN
Danny Santana Note
Danny Santana photo 62. Danny Santana BOS
Erik Gonzalez Note
Erik Gonzalez photo 63. Erik Gonzalez PIT
Anderson Tejada Note
Anderson Tejada photo 64. Anderson Tejada TEX
Bobby Witt Jr. Note
Bobby Witt Jr. photo 65. Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Nicky Lopez Note
Nicky Lopez photo 66. Nicky Lopez KC
Austin Martin Note
Austin Martin photo 67. Austin Martin TOR
Jose Garcia Note
Jose Garcia photo 68. Jose Garcia CIN
Cole Tucker Note
Cole Tucker photo 69. Cole Tucker PIT
Zack Cozart Note
Zack Cozart photo 70. Zack Cozart FA
Johan Camargo Note
Johan Camargo photo 71. Johan Camargo ATL
Leury Garcia Note
Leury Garcia photo 72. Leury Garcia CWS
Kyle Farmer Note
Kyle Farmer photo 73. Kyle Farmer CIN
Pat Valaika Note
Pat Valaika photo 74. Pat Valaika BAL
Luis Guillorme Note
Luis Guillorme photo 75. Luis Guillorme NYM
Tyler Wade Note
Tyler Wade photo 76. Tyler Wade NYY
Josh Van Meter Note
Josh Van Meter photo 77. Josh Van Meter SD
Nick Gordon Note
Nick Gordon photo 78. Nick Gordon MIN
Jose Peraza Note
Jose Peraza photo 79. Jose Peraza NYM
Richie Martin Note
Richie Martin photo 80. Richie Martin BAL
Joe Panik Note
Joe Panik photo 81. Joe Panik TOR
Yairo Munoz Note
Yairo Munoz photo 82. Yairo Munoz BOS
Kyle Holder Note
Kyle Holder photo 83. Kyle Holder CIN
Oneil Cruz Note
Oneil Cruz photo 84. Oneil Cruz PIT
Vimael Machin Note
Vimael Machin photo 85. Vimael Machin OAK
Luis Rengifo Note
Luis Rengifo photo 86. Luis Rengifo LAA
Chris Owings Note
Chris Owings photo 87. Chris Owings COL
Santiago Espinal Note
Santiago Espinal photo 88. Santiago Espinal TOR
Edmundo Sosa Note
Edmundo Sosa photo 89. Edmundo Sosa STL
Ehire Adrianza Note
Ehire Adrianza photo 90. Ehire Adrianza ATL
Logan Forsythe Note
Logan Forsythe photo 91. Logan Forsythe FA
Jordy Mercer Note
Jordy Mercer photo 92. Jordy Mercer WSH
JT Riddle Note
JT Riddle photo 93. JT Riddle MIN
C.J. Chatham Note
C.J. Chatham photo 94. C.J. Chatham PHI
Ramon Urias Note
Ramon Urias photo 95. Ramon Urias BAL
Charlie Culberson Note
Charlie Culberson photo 96. Charlie Culberson TEX
Ronald Torreyes Note
Ronald Torreyes photo 97. Ronald Torreyes PHI
Yu Chang Note
Yu Chang photo 98. Yu Chang CLE
Mike Freeman Note
Mike Freeman photo 99. Mike Freeman CLE
Jack Mayfield Note
Jack Mayfield photo 100. Jack Mayfield LAA
Nate Orf Note
Nate Orf photo 101. Nate Orf FA
Bret Boswell Note
Bret Boswell photo 102. Bret Boswell COL
Zack Short Note
Zack Short photo 103. Zack Short DET
Hernan Perez Note
Hernan Perez photo 104. Hernan Perez WSH
Wilmer Difo Note
Wilmer Difo photo 105. Wilmer Difo PIT
Lucius Fox Note
Lucius Fox photo 106. Lucius Fox KC
Max Moroff Note
Max Moroff photo 107. Max Moroff STL
Omar Estevez Note
Omar Estevez photo 108. Omar Estevez LAD
Alfredo Rodriguez Note
Alfredo Rodriguez photo 109. Alfredo Rodriguez CIN
Andrew Velazquez Note
Andrew Velazquez photo 110. Andrew Velazquez NYY
Tyler Freeman Note
Tyler Freeman photo 111. Tyler Freeman CLE
Sean Rodriguez Note
Sean Rodriguez photo 112. Sean Rodriguez FA
Nick Allen Note
Nick Allen photo 113. Nick Allen OAK
Kevin Smith Note
Kevin Smith photo 114. Kevin Smith TOR
Donovan Walton Note
Donovan Walton photo 115. Donovan Walton SEA
Richard Urena Note
Richard Urena photo 116. Richard Urena BAL
Taylor Walls Note
Taylor Walls photo 117. Taylor Walls TB
Owen Miller Note
Owen Miller photo 118. Owen Miller CLE
Domingo Leyba Note
Domingo Leyba photo 119. Domingo Leyba ARI
Tim Beckham Note
Tim Beckham photo 120. Tim Beckham CWS
Alex De Goti Note
Alex De Goti photo 121. Alex De Goti HOU
Nick Maton Note
Nick Maton photo 122. Nick Maton PHI
Ernie Clement Note
Ernie Clement photo 123. Ernie Clement CLE
Pete Kozma Note
Pete Kozma photo 124. Pete Kozma OAK
Esteban Quiroz Note
Esteban Quiroz photo 125. Esteban Quiroz TB
Tzu-Wei Lin Note
Tzu-Wei Lin photo 126. Tzu-Wei Lin MIN
Jose Rondon Note
Jose Rondon photo 127. Jose Rondon BAL