Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Francisco Lindor
CLE
Lindor's 2019 season got off to a rocky start with a right calf strain in February followed by a sprained left ankle in March. But when he returned in late April, he didn't miss a beat, putting up a classic 30-20 season and contributing in all five categories. There were some minor negatives for Lindor - his strikeout rate went up, his walk rate went down, and he had an expected batting average of just .276, the lowest of his career. But Lindor's floor at this point is so enormously high that he's one of the few no-risk players, and he shouldn't slip past the top 10 in drafts or, frankly, the top seven.
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2.
Trevor Story
COL
It's safe to say that Story's 2017 season was just an outlier, and he's established a fairly reliable 35-homer, 20-plus steal baseline. Pay no attention to Story's dramatically lower xBA - Coors Field will always inflate batting average and should keep Story's mark with roughly a .280 floor at worst. Even at a deep shortstop position, he's a unique five-category player, and is an easy first-round selection.
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3.
Trea Turner
WSH
It just feels like there's a 60-steal season waiting in Turner's future, and you simply can't say that about too many other players in the game at this point. With stolen bases as a whole on the decline, Turner has an absolute floor of 40 (barring injury) and a much higher ceiling. Add to that the fact that he should help fantasy owners in three other categories and be neutral in the fourth (RBI), and he should be taken in the first round of all rotisserie leagues.
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4.
Alex Bregman
HOU
Thanks to his 122 runs and 41 homers, Bregman outperformed Story, Turner and Lindor last year so you might consider him at #6 overall once Bellinger is gone but his lack of steals makes his ceiling a bit lower than each of those other first rounders.
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5.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD
Tatis was sensational in his half of season with 22 homers, 16 steals and a .317 batting average but every underlying metric available to us screams significant regression. He is a strong source of power and speed but expect the BA to plummet.
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6.
Javier Baez
CHC
The shortstop position is so loaded that Baez' 29 homers, 11 steals and .281 batting average didn't even get him into the top 12 at the position last year. He is still well worth a third or fourth round pick, however, because the bat and speed are both reliable.
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7.
Xander Bogaerts
BOS
Bogaerts had an outstanding 2019 season, obliterating his career-high in home runs and RBI and getting his batting average back over .300. But the thing is, his underlying metrics don't look all that different from his solid but unspectacular 2018 season. His strikeout rate, hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, and launch angle all remained nearly identical, while his steals (only four) continued to trend down to a now useless level from a fantasy perspective. Bogaerts is still a fine option but at a strong position and now batting in a weaker lineup, be careful not to waste too high a pick on him.
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8.
Gleyber Torres
NYY
As a 22-year-old, Gleyber managed 38 homers, 96 runs and 91 RBIs with a .280 batting average. There is still room for more growth and it would no surprise if he became an MVP candidate this year as a 23-year-old. There isn't enough speed to make him the top fantasy second basemen yet though.
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9.
Adalberto Mondesi
KC
Mondesi had a ridiculous 43 steals last year but he did it in just 416 at-bats. If he can stay on the field for a full season, 60 is not only a possibility, but likely. Add in 15 homers and we are talking about a potential first round value, albeit one with great risk.
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10.
Manny Machado
SD
Machado now has five consecutive seasons with 30+ homers, 80+ runs and 80+ RBIs. Yes, he struggled last year in batting average but this is a durable player with a great floor and Round 1 upside should he decide to steal 15 bags again like we've seen a few times.
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11.
Bo Bichette
TOR
Like his father, the young Bichette is one heck of a hitter and he proved that by batting .311 with 11 homers in just 46 games last year. Over a full season, it would be no surprise if he morphed into a 30 homer threat with a quality batting average and all the runs and RBIs to accompany it.
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12.
Jonathan Villar
MIA
Villar is moving from a great hitter's park to one of the worst but we are still talking about someone who went 24/40 homers/steals with 111 runs and a .273 batting average. There is some risk, as we saw in the 2017 disappointment
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13.
Ketel Marte
ARI
Marte suddenly went from being a career .263 hitter with 22 home runs in 1,548 plate appearances to batting .329 with 32 home runs in 628 plate appearances. And while he made many overall gains, such as a massive increase in launch angle, his expected batting average was just .299 and that .030 difference was 10th-highest in MLB. He also upped his pull percentage by a significant amount, and pulled all but one of his home runs, which should be something that pitchers can exploit in 2020. Buy some of the gains, but consider Marte closer to a .290-25 type of hitter.
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14.
Marcus Semien
OAK
Semien is currently being drafted outside the top 12 fantasy shortstops around the 7th round but did you know that he finished among the top five last year and ahead of Lindor, Turner and Torres. Semien knocked 33 bombs with double-digit steals, a good .285 batting average and 123 runs.
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15.
Tim Anderson
CWS
Anderson missed 40 games last year but still nearly went 20/20 with 81 runs. If that was all, it would have been a killer season but he also happened to bat .335 for the Sox. We can expect that to drop to near or even below .300 this year but that is still a great buy around the 8th round.
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16.
Carlos Correa
HOU
So far, we've only seen Correa play more than 110 games once in his five seasons. Whenever he is on the field, Correa has been a tremendous hitter so the upside is that of a top five fantasy shortstop but his floor is quite low because of the repeat injury risk.
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17.
Jorge Polanco
MIN
Polanco picked up where he left off after the 2018 suspension by batting nearly .300 with over 100 runs and 22 homers. His speed is gone but for his 11th round price tag, that is a plenty useful stat line even if you have to use him in the utility spot instead of shortstop.
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18.
Corey Seager
LAD
Seager is a far cry from being an MVP candidate as a rookie, but his batting average won't kill you and he'll hit around 20-25 homers with 80+ RBIs and runs. If he is traded to Boston, he'd likely see a jump in every offensive statistic.
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19.
Amed Rosario
NYM
Rosario is still young enough that he may still improve upon his 15 homers, 19 steals and .287 batting average that fantasy owners received from him last year. His ceiling is nowhere near some of the top shortstops, but he will contribute in all five categories.
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20.
Elvis Andrus
TEX
With so many competent fantasy shortstops, it may seem boring to draft Andrus in the 13th round but he has been so consistent and durable from year to year that this boring source of speed and average may prove well worth the price once again.
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21.
Paul DeJong
STL
Although DeJong hit so poorly at the end of the season, he has no chance of losing playing time because he is so great in the field. Even with his rough stretch to close things, DeJong finished with 30 homers and 97 runs. He is expected to do much of the same this year.
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22.
Jean Segura
PHI
You know who didn't love stolen bases? Gabe Kapler. You know who isn't the manager of the Phillies anymore? Gabe Kapler. Segura's numbers stayed relatively consistent last year, except his stolen base totals dropped from the 20-30 range to just 10. But with Kapler out of town, there's every reason to expect the 30-year-old Segura to return to being a 20-steal player with a plus batting average who will chip in everywhere. With dual-eligibility coming, Segura shouldn't be forgotten on draft day.
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23.
Didi Gregorius
PHI
Didi only ended up playing half the season but in that time he continued his torrid home run pace with 16 of them. The batting average dropped and his ballpark change should have a negative impact but this is still a 25-homer shortstop in the middle of your drafts.
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24.
Eduardo Escobar
ARI
Escobar had a heck of a breakout season, driving in 118 RBIs thanks to 35 homers. The batting average will never be great but he certainly won't hurt you in that category. What's more, is that he'll qualify for 2B and 3B so that you can slide him around during the week.
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25.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
TOR
After starting the season slow, Toronto sent Gurriel back to the minors but once he was called back up, he was one of the best hitters in baseball with a nearly 50-homer pace. That won't keep up, but 35 with a strong batting average is entirely possible.
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26.
Danny Santana
TEX
Santana's breakout season was absolutely ridiculous on paper. He finished with 28 homers, 21 steals, a .283 BA and 80+ RBIs and runs in just 474 at-bats. He may not be as efficient this season but even if he takes a step back, he would be a steal in the 13th round.
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27.
Tommy Edman
STL
Edman had a tidy little rookie season for the Cardinals, as he batted over .300 and put up 11 home runs and 15 steals in 92 games. He looks destined for a super-utility role in 2020, but that should still mean plenty of playing time. With batting average and steals at a premium, Edman is a solid target as you get into the double-digit rounds.
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28.
Kevin Newman
PIT
A leadoff hitter who bat .308 last year with 12 home runs and 16 steals in just 130 games? What's not to like? Fine, he is one of the worst in the league in terms of barrel percentage and hard hit rate but even still, he had an expected batting average of .291 last year. Newman won't blow you away, but he'll chip in everywhere, especially the scarce categories. Don't forget about him on draft day.
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29.
Scott Kingery
PHI
Kingery has reported to camp after initially dealing with COVID-19. He says that he's still dealing with his recovery, including some shortness of breath, but it appears likely that he'll be ready to go when the season begins.
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30.
Dansby Swanson
ATL
Swanson's statcast metrics were shockingly good so even though he broke out to a clip of 17 homers and 10 steals in just 127 games, there could be more under the surface that fantasy owners end up with this year from the Braves' shortstop.
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31.
Willy Adames
TB
The Rays' kid shortstop was so bad in the first half that many figured he might get sent down to the minors but he picked up the pace, batting .278/.340/.467 in the second half which has many wondering if a full season 2020 breakout is in store.
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32.
Gavin Lux
LAD
There is a chance Lux is dealt to Boston but it seems most likely that he'll stay. If he does, the most likely fantasy outcome is a Daniel Murphy-lite from day one but with upside for more. He hit .347 with 26 homers last year in just 113 minor league games.
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33.
Garrett Hampson
COL
Hampson was everyone's favorite late-round sleeper last year but the Rockies fiddled around with their lineup and he was only given 299 at-bats. In that time, he showed some power and great speed, but that batting average struggled. Unless they trade Arenado, he might struggle for playing time again.
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34.
Andrelton Simmons
LAA
Simmons will never hit 20 homers nor should we expect him to return to the 19 steals we saw in 2017, but this is a reliable source of decent numbers at all five primary hitting categories. You can grab him in the very last round of your draft if you need a middle infielder.
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35.
Carter Kieboom
WSH
While Kieboom may not be the phenom Gavin Lux is considered to be, this is still a very polished young bat who went .303/.409/.493 in Triple-A last season. Much like Andrew Benintendi, though, he should be more useful in real-life than the bigs where his advanced eye is Kieboom's top calling card.
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36.
Niko Goodrum
DET
Goodrum isn't going to hit even .250 but this a multi-position guy for your bench that will hit a dozen homers and steal a dozen bases.
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37.
Nick Ahmed
ARI
Prior to the last year, Ahmed was merely a fringe starter who might bop 15 homers, but was going to kill your batting average and not accomplish much else. He kicked it up in 2019, though to 19 homers, 82 RBIs and 79 runs with a batting average north of .250. If that all returns, he'll be a nice late round value.
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38.
Jon Berti
MIA
Berti was never much of a prospect and is actually already 29 years old. He won't ever hit for power, but 25+ steals with a solid batting average and perhaps even 85 or 90 runs is a legitimate possibility. Plus, he plays most positions and has limited competition for playing time.
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39.
Luis Urias
MIL
Urias tested positive for COVID-19, but is reportedly asymptomatic. Nevertheless, he remains in quarantine and can only rejoin the team after two positive tests. Urias has upside, but given his performance and current health situation, there's almost no reason to bother drafting him in anything but deep NL-only leagues.
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40.
Nick Madrigal
CWS
Madrigal is a talented prospect but probably not quite worth drafting and stashing in a standard-sized league. From the moment he is called up, though, Madrigal should be owned everywhere.
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41.
Mauricio Dubon
SF
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42.
Jurickson Profar
SD
Profar may have batted .218 but he is still young enough that we can expect some improvement. Even if we don't get it, he is strong enough in the other four categories that you can use a late-round pick on him knowing you'll get steady production.
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43.
Jose Peraza
BOS
Peraza is a long way removed from batting .234 as a rookie with 21 steals in half a season, but he is very young still and should start in Boston's great offense so don't be surprised if he breaks out in 2020.
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44.
Freddy Galvis
CIN
Galvis is quietly one of the most consistent offensive shortstops. His upside is limited, of course, but you can count on him for 20 homers, 65 runs, 65 RBIs and a decent average.
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45.
Hanser Alberto
BAL
Alberto doesn't walk much but fortunately for fantasy owners, all that matters is his .305 batting average. That might not stick around though and he certainly won't help you with power or speed.
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46.
David Fletcher
LAA
It is clear that Fletcher won't provide much in the way of homers or RBIs but this a guy who should boost your BA and provide 75+ runs in the final few rounds while playing multiple positions.
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47.
Asdrubal Cabrera
WSH
Cabrera never feels exciting to draft but there is much to be said for someone who you can count on for 15 homers, 80 RBIs, 65 runs and a batting average that won't kill you late in drafts.
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48.
Nico Hoerner
CHC
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49.
Jose Iglesias
BAL
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50.
J.P. Crawford
SEA
The former top prospect has immense talent but we most certainly have not seen it in his first 165 MLB games. There is a chance he breaks out this year, but you are best suited merely keeping him on waiver wire speed dial.
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51.
Chris Taylor
LAD
Taylor's at-bats dropped 200 last season but he was every bit as efficient as we've seen. 20 homers, 15 steals and a quality batting average is within reach to go with his multi-position eligibility.
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52.
Brandon Crawford
SF
Crawford had a rough season in 2019, batting just .228 with 11 homers, but he has been so steady for five years that a bounceback to the tune of 15 homers, .250 and 50+ runs/RBIs could be in store.
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53.
Marwin Gonzalez
MIN
Marwin is a long way removed from batting .303 with 90 RBIs for the Astros in the now infamous 2017 Astros' season, but he still has 20 homer power if he can stay on the field and the batting average shouldn't hurt.
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54.
Brendan Rodgers
COL
Rodgers hasn't shown it at the big league level yet but there is a reason he has been a top 20 prospect for four straight years. His bat should provide a strong batting average with sufficient power but that won't happen until the Rockies finally give him some playing time.
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55.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
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56.
Nicky Lopez
KC
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57.
Johan Camargo
ATL
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58.
Miguel Rojas
MIA
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59.
Kike Hernandez
LAD
The Dodgers' depth chart always makes it seem like Kike will have trouble finding playing time but they will again carve out 400 at-bats for him one way or another and fantasy owners can expect 15+ homers, 60+ RBIs and 55+ runs.
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60.
Leury Garcia
CWS
Although Garcia should again end up south of 10 homers and 50 RBIs, we are talking about a consistent .270+ hitter who should have no trouble notching 15 steals.
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61.
Orlando Arcia
MIL
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62.
Jorge Mateo
SD
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63.
Eric Sogard
MIL
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64.
Joey Wendle
TB
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65.
Cole Tucker
PIT
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66.
Wander Franco
TB
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67.
Aledmys Diaz
HOU
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68.
Myles Straw
HOU
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69.
Luis Rengifo
LAA
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70.
Willi Castro
DET
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71.
Brock Holt
MIL
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72.
Richard Rodriguez
FA
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73.
Isaac Paredes
DET
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74.
Addison Russell
FA
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75.
Ehire Adrianza
MIN
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76.
Donovan Solano
SF
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77.
Luis Guillorme
NYM
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78.
Thairo Estrada
NYY
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79.
Josh Smith
NYY
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80.
Ronny Rodriguez
MIL
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81.
Royce Lewis
MIN
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82.
Vimael Machin
OAK
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83.
Andrew Velazquez
BAL
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84.
Jordy Mercer
DET
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85.
Ildemaro Vargas
ARI
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86.
Adeiny Hechavarria
ATL
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87.
Daniel Robertson
TB
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88.
Tim Beckham
FA
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89.
Logan Forsythe
MIA
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90.
Jose Garcia
CIN
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91.
Hernan Perez
CHC
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92.
Harold Castro
DET
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93.
Erik Gonzalez
PIT
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94.
Jonathan Arauz
BOS
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95.
Eli White
TEX
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96.
Tzu-Wei Lin
BOS
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97.
Edmundo Sosa
STL
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98.
Yairo Munoz
BOS
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99.
Danny Mendick
CWS
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100.
Donovan Walton
SEA
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101.
JT Riddle
PIT
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102.
Charlie Culberson
ATL
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103.
Wilmer Difo
WSH
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104.
Chris Owings
COL
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105.
Dylan Moore
SEA
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106.
Sean Rodriguez
MIA
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107.
Santiago Espinal
TOR
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108.
Jung Ho Kang
FA
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109.
Jack Mayfield
HOU
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110.
C.J. Chatham
BOS
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111.
Andres Gimenez
NYM
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112.
Sergio Alcantara
DET
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113.
Jeter Downs
BOS
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114.
Yu Chang
CLE
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115.
Arquimedes Gamboa
PHI
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116.
Richard Urena
FA
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117.
Ryan Goins
CWS
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118.
Jazz Chisholm
MIA
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119.
Mike Freeman
CLE
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120.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
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121.
Lucius Fox
TB
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122.
Ryan Court
OAK
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123.
Nick Gordon
MIN
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124.
Anderson Tejeda
TEX
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125.
Abiatal Avelino
SF
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126.
Ronald Torreyes
PHI
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127.
Gordon Beckham
FA
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128.
Humberto Arteaga
KC
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129.
Esteban Quiroz
TB
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130.
Max Moroff
NYM
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131.
Christian Lopes
MIA
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132.
Yadiel Rivera
TEX
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133.
Zach McKinstry
LAD
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134.
Jose Rondon
BAL
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135.
Zack Short
CHC
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136.
Oneil Cruz
PIT
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137.
Elliot Soto
LAA
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138.
Nick Allen
OAK
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139.
Jeison Guzman
KC
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140.
Owen Miller
SD
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141.
Eric Stamets
COL
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142.
Phillip Evans
PIT
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143.
Ruben Tejada
TOR
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144.
Deven Marrero
FA
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145.
Luis Garcia
WSH
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146.
Andrew Romine
CWS
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147.
Wilfredo Tovar
MIN
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148.
Andy Burns
TOR
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149.
Arismendy Alcantara
LAA
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150.
Gift Ngoepe
PHI
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151.
Mitch Walding
PHI
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152.
Allen Cordoba
SD
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153.
Ben Deluzio
FA
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154.
Blake Trahan
FA
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155.
Tyler Saladino
FA
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156.
Troy Tulowitzki
FA
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