Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Ozzie Albies
ATL
A wrist injury limited Albies to just 29 games last season, and affected his performance early in the year before he went on the IL. In other words, there's little reason to draw conclusions from anything he did last year, including his drop in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate. Albies had established a rough 24-15 baseline from 2018-2019, and at 24 years old, there's no reason to expect that floor to decrease. With his power and speed combination, and his locked in strong RBI and runs scored numbers batting near the top of the Braves' lineup, Albies should be either the first second baseman drafted or the second behind DJ LeMahieu, depending on how you want to build your team.
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2.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
LeMahieu will return to the Yankees on a six-year deal, and that is great news for fantasy managers. Since he's been New York, he's provided elite all-around production, most notably in batting average, where he has batted .336. He's blossomed into a 25-home run hitter with plenty of runs and RBI, and a handful of steals that chip in with the category. Add to that LeMahieu's multi-position eligibility and he is a huge asset to every fantasy team. With nothing in his profile to suggest a skills decline, he should be drafted before the third round is out in every fantasy league.
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3.
Whit Merrifield
KC
Merrifield has established an extremely strong floor, as he'll almost always be an asset in batting average, steals, and runs scored, and chip in for the remaining categories. There were some concern after his steals dropped to just 20 in 2019, but he bounced back to a 32-steal pace last year while also seeing a power spike. Merrifield is 32 years old and does not hit the ball particularly hard, but that's really irrelevant at this point. He is what he is, and with multi-position eligibility, what he is a major asset in fantasy and one of the top second basemen in fantasy.
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4.
Keston Hiura
MIL
Hiura looked to be on the verge of superstardom heading into 2020, if he could just cut back on his bloated 30.7% strikeout rate. Instead, he struck out more than ever (34.6% of the time), en route to a league-leading 85 strikeouts. That led to a massive drop in production, notably in batting average, which fell from .303 in 2019 to .212 last year. Hiura was never a high-strikeout player in the minors. He never struck out more than 26.3% in any level and he had an overall strikeout rate of just 21%. If he can manage to cut down on the whiffs, he should be a top option at second base given his power and speed, but for now, drop him down your draft board a bit from where he was heading into 2020. He's still a borderline top-five option, especially since he will add first base eligibility after the Brewers signed Kolten Wong, but exercise more caution.
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5.
Brandon Lowe
TB
Lowe actually lost a point on his batting average from 2019 (.269 from .270), but his profile looked far better in 2020. He cut his strikeout rate from 34.6% to 25.9%, and his swinging strike rate from 19.1% to 15.4%. Despite barreling the ball a whopping 17.5% of the time (top 2 percent in baseball), his average dropped a point because, well, he just didn't have an outrageously lucky BABIP like he did in 2019 (.377). Lowe improved his ISO and HR/FB rate, and was generally the best version of himself in 2020. Even mashing together his 2019 and 2020 seasons, Lowe has hit 31 homers and stole eight bases over 138 games. Batting near the top of a strong lineup, he should deliver another solid season at the thin second base position.
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6.
Ketel Marte
ARI
Most fantasy managers expected regression from Marte after his breakout 2019 season, but few saw last year coming. Marte hit two homeruns in his 45 games, and contributed minimally elsewhere other than batting average. His walk rate dropped to a miniscule 3.6%, and although he struck out less than ever, the quality of his contact was overwhelmingly poor. Truth be told, both 2019 and 2020 are probably outliers for Marte, and the truth probably lies somewhere between his 2018 (.260/.332/.437) and 2019 (.329/.389/.592) seasons. Those numbers will play at second base, especially given Marte's draft cost, but give up dreams of him hitting 32 home runs ever again.
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7.
Cavan Biggio
TOR
Biggio doesn't hit the ball particularly well and is passive almost to a fault. He swung at just 36% of the pitches he saw last year, third-fewest in MLB, and that represents a continued trend. That passivity leads to increased strikeouts, but also plenty of walks, as Biggio took a free pass 15.5% of the time last season, which ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. Despite not making consistently strong contact, Biggio has hit 24 home runs in his 159 major league games, and he's added on 107 runs and 20 steals. Those numbers play extremely well for fantasy, particularly at the weak second base position. Biggio is likely to add third base eligibility with the Blue Jays' addition of Marcus Semien, which should only add to his value, and he makes a fine pick if you can nab him in the fifth round or so where his ADP generally lands.
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8.
Jose Altuve
HOU
Altuve had a rough 2020 season (like most Astros offensive players), but it was particularly drastic for him. After batting .298 (which was low for him) with 31 home runs in 2019, he batted just .219 with five home runs last year, and he struck out more than he ever had before. But, like his counterpart in the middle infield, Carlos Correa, Altuve had a strong postseason, slashing .375/.500/.720 with five home runs. It's reasonable to write off Altuve's regular season as a slump that he would have broken out of in light of his postseason, though with just eight steals combined over his previous two seasons, stolen bases may not be a big part of his game going forward (though his sprint speed is still excellent). Expect a bounce-back campaign in most categories, and take the undervalued Altuve as a solid starting second baseman.
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9.
Jeff McNeil
NYM
Much of McNeil's 2020 season looked similar to his year in 2019. He hit over .300, rarely struck out, and got on base plenty. But the power gains that we saw in 2019 vanished, as he hit just four home runs over 52 games. His barrel rate (2.5%) and hard-hit percentage (26.5%) were some of the worst in the league, and he didn't even offer the token stolen base that he had chipped in during previous seasons. This is a scenario where McNeil's value to any particular fantasy manager will depend on the weight he or she gives to the shortened 2020 season. Given that McNeil never hit the ball particularly hard anyway, though, a good bet is to assume he at least returns to the high teens in home runs, slightly below his 2019 pace. With his strong average and multi-position eligibility, that makes McNeil an asset in the middle rounds.
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10.
Max Muncy
LAD
Muncy's batting average dropped to a ridiculously low .192 last year, and there were two culprits. The first is that his line drive rate plummeted from 23.5% to just 13.8%, leading to far more ground balls. The second was that he simply didn't hit the ball as hard. His hard hit rate and average exit velocity fell, and his HR/FB rate dropped seven points. Muncy dealt with finger and elbow injuries, so those may account for his poor season, but even then he was on pace to reach the 30-homer plateau for a third straight year. Muncy has position eligibility galore, and at the weak second base position, so continue to draft him in the middle rounds as a cheap source of power who adds value thanks to his ability to play all around the infield for your fantasy team.
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11.
Mike Moustakas
CIN
Because Moustakas was a hitter who played for the Reds, he had a poor 2020 season (seriously, look at their collective numbers). He walked more, struck out more, and lost some points on his batting average, but overall, there was little different in Moustakas's profile. He continued to hit for power and make quality contact. He may not score many runs given his lack of speed and surrounding cast, and the batting average isn't going to help you. But he's got plenty of power for a second-base eligible player, and there's no sign that his production is ready to fall off a cliff.
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12.
Gleyber Torres
NYY
Torres missed some time with quad and hamstring strains last season, but his year was an absolute disaster even without it. He batted just .243 and hit a mere three home runs in 160 plate appearances. The culprit was that he was reportedly out of shape, a byproduct of the long layoff between the original spring training and when baseball resumed months later. There's every reason to buy into the excuse given Torres' track record, especially since he bounced back a bit in September and October with an .842 OPS. Expect more typical numbers from Torres this year, meaning around a .270 average, 30 home runs, and plenty of counting stats. Given his ADP, he's likely to be a bargain this year.
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13.
Dylan Moore
SEA
Moore hit .255 with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 38 games last year. Despite not having an abundance of speed, Moore's stolen base prowess is real, as he stole 96 bases over 447 minor league games at a 77% clip and ranked in the 71st percentile in sprint speed last year. And he cut his strikeout rate to a high but manageable 27% last year, and his barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity were all well above average. But Moore has struggled against righties for much of his time in the majors, and despite his success last year, is unlikely to have a long leash with Shed Long waiting in the wings. Moore has upside and multi-position eligibility to go along with his power and speed. Just have a backup plan ready to go.
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14.
Nick Madrigal
CWS
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15.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
TOR
Gurriel Jr. has developed into an extremely strong major league hitter, showing far more power than he did in the minors. He makes consistently strong (though not elite) contact, and although he swings a ton, his strikeout rate isn't prohibitive. Gurriel isn't going to be elite in any category, but he's going to provide some value in all five. Batting in an excellent lineup and hitter's park (whichever one it may be), Gurriel should be a fine pick in drafts in all formats.
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16.
Nick Solak
TEX
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17.
Jean Segura
PHI
Segura's strikeout rate ballooned last season to above 20%, though his walk rate also took a corresponding jump. But other than that, there wasn't much notable or exciting about his season. He ran a bit less than usual in the shortened year, but he still ranked in the 87th percentile in sprint speed, suggesting that the stolen base potential is still there if he wants to take it. The bigger issue with Segura as he enters his age-31 season is that there's almost no upside, as he'll bat near the bottom of the order and has established a fairly firm ceiling in his career. He's a borderline startable middle infielder in mixed leagues, but nothing more.
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18.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
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19.
Tommy Edman
STL
After a highly successful 2019 season in which he hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in 92 games, Edman's numbers regressed in nearly every meaningful way last year. His batting average slipped from .304 to just .250, he hit just five home runs, and he went 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Edman was a bit unlucky last year, as his xBA and xSLG outperformed his actual numbers. And despite his down year on the basepaths, he was in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He's likely to lead off for the Cardinals this year, and should be good for double digits in both home runs and steals, with plenty of runs scored. Considering he has multi-position eligibility, he should be drafted before the double-digit rounds.
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20.
Chris Taylor
LAD
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21.
David Fletcher
LAA
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22.
Jonathan Villar
NYM
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23.
Gavin Lux
LAD
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24.
Ian Happ
CHC
Happ has always made consistently hard contact, but his strikeout rate was simply untenable, hovering around 34% in his first two seasons. But he has cut that down to a more manageable 26% over the last two years, and he's batted .260 with 23 home runs and 58 RBI over 115 games in that span. Happ has some speed even if he hasn't shown it recently, and he'll likely bat leadoff for the Cubs, who may need to manufacture runs more than in previous years. The average probably won't help you much, but he should contribute in four categories at a relatively inexpensive price.
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25.
Andres Gimenez
CLE
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26.
Kolten Wong
MIL
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27.
Ryan McMahon
COL
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28.
Ha-seong Kim
SD
Kim joins a loaded Padres team after a successful career in the KBO. He had a particularly strong 2020 season, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs and 23 steals. Although he split time between shortstop and third base in the KBO, he should likely man second for the Padres, which is better for his fantasy value given the relative lack of strength of the position (though the signing of Jurickson Profar does add a few question marks). Kim is younger than most hitters coming over from the KBO - only 25 - and he has the speed and power to reach double digits in steals and homers pretty easily. But he's more of a 15-15 type of player, rather than the potential 30-25 he was last year, and he'll likely bat near the bottom of the order, limiting his plate appearance and runs and RBI opportunities. Draft him as a middle infield option, but with upside.
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29.
Austin Nola
SD
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30.
Garrett Hampson
COL
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31.
Eduardo Escobar
ARI
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32.
Tommy La Stella
SF
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33.
Jon Berti
MIA
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34.
Jurickson Profar
SD
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35.
Cesar Hernandez
CLE
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36.
Starlin Castro
WSH
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37.
Jonathan Schoop
DET
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38.
Ty France
SEA
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39.
Luis Arraez
MIN
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40.
Scott Kingery
PHI
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41.
Wilmer Flores
SF
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42.
Joey Wendle
TB
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43.
Mauricio Dubon
SF
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44.
Brendan Rodgers
COL
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45.
Colin Moran
PIT
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46.
Rougned Odor
TEX
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47.
Donovan Solano
SF
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48.
Kike Hernandez
BOS
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49.
Nico Hoerner
CHC
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50.
Niko Goodrum
DET
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51.
Luis Urias
MIL
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52.
Jazz Chisholm
MIA
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53.
Adam Frazier
PIT
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54.
Kevin Newman
PIT
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55.
Michael Chavis
BOS
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56.
Hanser Alberto
KC
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57.
Freddy Galvis
BAL
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58.
Luis Garcia
WSH
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59.
Mike Brosseau
TB
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60.
Danny Santana
BOS
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61.
Chad Pinder
OAK
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62.
Isan Diaz
MIA
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63.
Nicky Lopez
KC
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64.
Vidal Brujan
TB
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65.
David Bote
CHC
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66.
Asdrubal Cabrera
ARI
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67.
Marwin Gonzalez
BOS
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68.
Shed Long Jr.
SEA
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69.
Josh Rojas
ARI
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70.
Dee Strange-Gordon
CIN
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71.
Brad Miller
PHI
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72.
Tony Kemp
OAK
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73.
Jahmai Jones
BAL
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74.
Eric Sogard
CHC
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75.
Thairo Estrada
NYY
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76.
Yolmer Sanchez
BAL
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77.
Leury Garcia
CWS
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78.
Pat Valaika
BAL
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79.
Aledmys Diaz
HOU
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80.
Johan Camargo
ATL
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81.
Kyle Farmer
CIN
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82.
Jed Lowrie
OAK
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83.
Tyler Wade
NYY
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84.
Derek Dietrich
NYY
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85.
Christian Arroyo
BOS
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86.
Jason Kipnis
ATL
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87.
Luis Guillorme
NYM
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88.
Jose Peraza
NYM
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89.
Franklin Barreto
LAA
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90.
Josh Harrison
WSH
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91.
Harold Castro
DET
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92.
Luis Rengifo
LAA
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93.
Odubel Herrera
PHI
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94.
Joe Panik
TOR
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95.
Scooter Gennett
FA
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96.
Brandon Drury
NYM
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97.
Brock Holt
TEX
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98.
Danny Mendick
CWS
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99.
Zach McKinstry
LAD
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100.
Sheldon Neuse
LAD
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101.
Chris Owings
COL
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102.
Andy Young
ARI
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103.
Edmundo Sosa
STL
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104.
Matt Duffy
CHC
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105.
Brian Dozier
FA
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106.
Ehire Adrianza
ATL
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107.
Logan Forsythe
FA
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108.
Alex Blandino
CIN
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109.
Max Schrock
CIN
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110.
Jordy Mercer
WSH
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111.
Ildemaro Vargas
CHC
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112.
Greg Garcia
DET
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113.
Sergio Alcantara
CHC
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114.
Neil Walker
FA
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115.
Andy Ibanez
TEX
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116.
Kody Clemens
DET
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117.
Mike Freeman
CLE
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118.
Jonathan Arauz
BOS
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119.
Travis Blankenhorn
MIN
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120.
Bret Boswell
COL
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121.
Hernan Perez
WSH
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122.
Wilmer Difo
PIT
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123.
Max Moroff
STL
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124.
Omar Estevez
LAD
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125.
Forrest Wall
TOR
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126.
Sean Rodriguez
FA
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127.
Kevin Kramer
PIT
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128.
Stevie Wilkerson
BAL
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129.
Breyvic Valera
TOR
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130.
Adrian Sanchez
WSH
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131.
Robel Garcia
HOU
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132.
Richard Urena
BAL
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133.
Domingo Leyba
ARI
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134.
Tim Beckham
CWS
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135.
Alex De Goti
HOU
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136.
Kramer Robertson
STL
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137.
Eddy Alvarez
MIA
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138.
Pete Kozma
OAK
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139.
Esteban Quiroz
TB
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140.
Christian Colon
FA
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141.
Jose Rondon
BAL
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