Fantasy Football Player Notes

Christian Watson got the bag this offseason and should be considered the clear WR1 for the Green Bay Packers. Watson deserved the pay day as a he proved that he can handle this role last year. Last season, in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 61.1 receiving yards per game, 2.67 yards per route run, a 23.9% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His target share and first-read share should go up this season with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and Watson likely getting promoted into a full-time role. Last year, he was also held back by a 68% route share (56th out of 109 qualifying receivers). The increase in usage and playing time should make his ultra-efficiency per route even more deadly in 2026. Last year, among those 109 qualifying receivers, Watson ranked fourth in yards per route run, tenth in first downs per route run, and sixth in fantasy points per route run. Watson is a strong WR2 with upside for more in 2026.

Jayden Reed missed much of the 2025 season with a broken collarbone and surgery to repair a Jones fracture. Last year, we got only a five-game sample for Reed where he played at least 35% of the snaps. In those contests, Reed had a 21% target-per-route-run rate, 1.99 yards per route run, and 0.47 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are strong numbers, but the worry for Reed persists into 2026 about his inclusion in two wide receiver sets. Last year, Reed played 75% of his snaps from the slot, which is tough when Green Bay ranked 22nd in usage of 11 personnel (55.6%). That leaves Reed as a capped upside player who can only be counted on as a matchup-specific flex play. I fully expect Matthew Golden to start in two wide receiver sets, which will leave on the outside looking in for many weeks. Reed isn't on my draft board in 2026. If I need receiver help during bye weeks, I'll look for his name on waivers.

After all the hype for Matthew Golden last year, he was only a part-time player for Green Bay in his rookie season. He had only five games in which he surpassed a 60% snap share. When he was on the field, he had a 17% target-per-route-run rate, 1.46 yards per route run, and 0.065 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 16th in separation and 67th in route win rate. The separation score is notable, but all of his other metrics and the fact that he had a quiet rookie season leave me unimpressed. Golden can take a step forward this season as the primary running mate with Christian Watson in two-receiver sets, and it can still be uninspiring. The Green Bay passing attack will still flow through Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft this season, with everyone else playing a role or a bit part, or at least that is how I'm projecting it. I'm avoiding Golden in drafts this season.