Fantasy Football Player Notes

Michael Pittman Jr. proved his alpha status all year long in the Colts offense with 109 receptions (7th) on 156 targets, accumulating 1,152 yards, averaging 10.6 yards per catch. Like Josh Downs, he had an equally bad TD production with only 4 TDs. Even so, in 16 games, racking up 195.7 fantasy points (WR15 overall), which averages out to 12.2 points per game (WR19). Nearly 1300 air yards (33% air yards share), with a 30% target share to boot - 4th-highest among all WRs. Pittman comes with a super-high floor that could be further unlocked with better TD variance in 2024. He will return to the Colts after signing a long-term contract extension.

Josh Downs made a notable impact in his rookie season with 68 receptions from 98 targets (17% target share), totaling 771 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per reception. Note that he was very unlucky when it came to scoring, with just two TDs. Only Drake London had more receiving yards and fewer than 3 TDs than Downs did in 2023. As a result, over 17 games, he amassed 123.1 fantasy points, averaging 7.2 points per game (WR46). But it should recognized that Downs' production fell off after he suffered a knee injury that lingered. Weeks 1-8, Downs led the Colts in yards per route run (2.0), averaging 9.9 points per game with a 19% target share.

As a Longhorn, AD Mitchell posted a breakout season en route to a 32 percent dominator rating with 11 TD scores on 55 receptions. Standing at 6'2″ with a lanky frame at 204 pounds, Mitchell offers an ideal build for an outside receiver. Mitchell reminded me a lot of a lighter Michael Pittman Jr. while watching him on film. At the NFL Combine, measured at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds and had a big day: 4.34-second 40-yard dash (94th percentile), 1.52-second 10-yard split (76th percentile), 39.5" vertical jump (89th percentile), 136" broad jump (98th percentile). His closest comparable per mockdraftable.com: D.J. Chark Jr. After being drafted by the Colts in the 2nd round, Mitchell projects to take on Alec Pierce's role in the Shane Steichen offense. As an explosive vertical threat, Mitchell's game could translate well to Anthony Richardson's big arm. But in an offense heralded by a mobile quarterback, Mitchell is facing an uphill battle for targets. Michael Pittman Jr. (another winner with Mitchell as the WR Indy drafted) is the target alpha. And last year's second-round pick, Josh Downs, projects for No. 2 in the target pecking order. Mitchell screams like the 3rd-target at best, with his opportunities coming in the form of downfield and high-value pass attempts. It's great in best ball for splash weeks. But relying on Mitchell to bring in any consistency is a fool's errand.