Fantasy Football Player Notes

When Josh Downs played with a more capable passer in Joe Flacco during the 2024 season, his production skyrocketed.
With Flacco at QB (eight starts), the Colts' slot WR went over his receiving yards prop in 88% of his games. 60-plus receiving yards in seven of the eight games. In the seven true games Flacco started, Downs earned a 26% target share, 9.3 targets per game, and 66.4 receiving yards per game.
If the Colts can get any semblance of average QB play between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, Downs will be a bargain in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Michael Pittman Jr. was one of 2024's biggest fantasy letdowns, finishing as the WR43 overall and WR52 in points per game. Despite a team-high 23% target share with Anthony Richardson under center, Pittman's fantasy ceiling was capped by a low-scoring offense and poor red-zone efficiency - just 3 touchdowns on 12 red-zone targets, and none from Richardson. Injuries didn't help either, as Pittman played through a fractured back for much of the season. Heading into 2025, Pittman enters as the Colts' WR1, although it's a much tougher bet with Josh Downs continuing to emerge. Accompanied by a deep Colts pass-catching room and lingering questions at QB between Daniel Jones/ Richardson, suggest Pittman's draft price requires a steep discount to be worth targeting.

Alec Pierce emerged as a legit deep threat in 2024, with a mini-breakout in Year 3 with a career-high 824 yards and 7 touchdowns despite just 37 receptions. He led the NFL in average depth of target (22.2) and ranked 12th in total air yards (1,485), thriving as a vertical weapon for both Colts quarterbacks. Pierce fended off second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell to retain a starting role and earned praise from GM Chris Ballard for delivering on his second-round pedigree. However, his 13% target share and 4.2 targets per game limit his week-to-week floor, especially in full-PPR formats. He remains a classic "better in best ball" play due to his splash-play reliance and lack of consistent volume. Unless an injury shifts the target distribution in Indianapolis, Pierce is more of a volatile WR4/5 with boom potential in 2025.

Adonai Mitchell is a dark-horse Year 2 breakout candidate after flashing elite efficiency in limited action as a rookie. He posted a 28% target rate per route run - a mark that would've ranked top-20 among WRs if he had qualified - and consistently created separation in his routes. The challenge in 2025 will be earning more consistent playing time in a crowded Colts receiver room featuring Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and deep threat Alec Pierce. But with his ability to command targets and get open, Mitchell is a strong upside stash who could explode with an expanded role.