Fantasy Football Player Notes

As a member of Buffalo's ensemble cast at wide receiver, Khalil Shakir doesn't offer vast upside, but he's a solid depth piece for fantasy who might have some modest upside if his target share grows. Shakir finished with 76-821-4 in 15 games last season. He was WR40 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game among receivers who played at least eight games. To Shakir's credit, he makes the most of his opportunities. He's averaged 1.90 yards per route run and 9.7 yards per target over his three NFL seasons.

I think there's a chance we could get a Year 2 breakout from rookie Keon Coleman after an uneven rookie season in which he produced 29-556-4 in 13 games. Although he didn't have a lot of catches, Coleman demonstrated his freaky ball skills and averaged a whopping 19.2 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target. The Bills have sort of an ensemble cast at wide receiver, so there's an opportunity for Coleman to step up and seize a bigger role. I don't think he's ever going to be a guy who gets 130 or 140 targets a year, but Coleman is a guy who could potentially do a lot of damage on 100 or 110 targets.

Palmer is a solid and cheap bet to make on the Buffalo offense. His surface stats don't jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It's when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting. Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Now, those numbers are eye-popping, especially when you discuss one of the best offenses in the NFL, yet only one receiving option was able to draw more than a 20% target share last year (Khalil Shakir). Palmer's route running and separation ability could lead to consistently heavier usage in Buffalo, where they don't have a receiver commanding a high target share. Palmer is worth the late-round flier to find out.