Fantasy Football Player Notes

Did you know Hopkins hasn't seen less than 150 targets since way back in 2014? Now going to a Cardinals team with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, it's unlikely he reaches that mark. The odd offseason also hasn't given him a lot of time with new quarterback Kyler Murray. From reports, the first time the duo got together was at the end of June. Is that enough time to develop any sort of chemistry? Hopkins has played with a lot of bad quarterbacks in his time, though the only one who held him back from producing was Brock Osweiler, as Hopkins finished as the No. 29 wide receiver in 2016 despite seeing 151 targets. Murray's rookie season wasn't particularly efficient (both Fitzgerald and Kirk saw over 105 targets but outside the top-36 wide receivers), but we should expect growth in year two. There is a scenario where Hopkins is a rock-solid player but not a top-five fantasy receiver, however, given his history of producing with guys like Tom Savage, TJ Yates, and Brian Hoyer, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Still, his targets will take a hit, making him a second-round pick rather than the first-round one he's been.

He has the benefit of playing a year with Kyler Murray in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, while DeAndre Hopkins may go through a learning curve. Despite playing just 13 games last year, Kirk saw 107 targets (132 target pace over 16 games). The issue is that Hopkins will get a large chunk of the pie, and Larry Fitzgerald didn't return to play another season to see just 50 targets. It'll be hard for anyone to correctly predict the target share among these receivers, but Kirk is an ascending talent who's entering year three of his young career. Knowing the Cardinals receivers combined for 368 targets last year, it's hard to see a scenario where Kirk sees more targets than he did last year, especially when you know they run a lot of 4WR sets (which cuts into the overall target pie). Kirk has also scored just three touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, so touchdowns aren't likely to make up for a lower target share. He's likely going to be somewhat of a hit-or-miss WR3/4 in 2020 with inconsistent targets.

Now entering his age-37 season, we kind of know what to expect from Fitzgerald. He did see a team-high 109 targets last year, and it's difficult to say his role changed much. He's going to be the safety valve over the middle of the field while DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk work the perimeter. There were just six games that Fitzgerald broke the 50-yard barrier last year, so knowing he scored just four times, you understand the lack of upside despite his decent target share. Still, with Hopkins in the mix, that target share will certainly go down. Kyler Murray threw just 20 touchdown passes last year, so it was tough to expect more than the four that Fitzgerald scored. Even with a bump for Murray, it's tough to say the increased touchdown potential will make up for Fitzgerald's decreased target share. He's just a low-upside bye-week filler at this stage of his career. Even with an injury to someone like Hopkins or Kirk, we've already seen that scenario in 2019, and it wasn't more than a WR4-type.

Isabella saw just 13 targets last season after being selected in the second round of the draft, and would have potentially been considered a breakout candidate in deeper leagues heading into the year. Unfortunately, with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and the return of Larry Fitzgerald, it will be nearly impossible for Isabella to return any value this season. In dynasty leagues, he's worth holding onto, but ignore him for redraft purposes.