Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I'm also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he's a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.

Cooper Kupp has dealt with injuries (ankle/thigh) over the last three seasons, which have limited to no more than 12 games in a season since his legendary 2021 season. If he can somehow manage to stay healthy in 2025, he might prove that he has more left in the tank than the general consensus believes. Last year, in the games in which he played at least 55% of the snaps, he drew a 24.7% target share, averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game with 2.15 yards per route run, a 31.6% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). In that sample, he averaged 15.2 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the WR18 last season. During those games, he had a 0.097 separation score and a 14.5% route win rate overall, which, among 112 qualifying receivers last season, would have ranked 31st and 42nd. Those are passable numbers, but what really opened my eyes were his 0.139 separation score and 17.6% route win rate as a boundary receiver. Those marks would have ranked 16th and 24th among the same sample of wideouts. With his injury history and the downgrade in quarterback play from Matthew Stafford to Sam Darnold, Kupp is best viewed as a WR4 with some upside.