Fantasy Football Player Notes

Drafters were expecting Aaron Jones to lead the Green Bay Packers in receptions and receiving yards in the post-Davante Adams lineup, which did not come to fruition. Although his 59 catches did rank second on the team behind only Allen Lazard, Jones caught fewer passes than the year before. His catches per game (3.5) were identical to the year before. He saw a career-high in targets (72), but that was based on his 17 games played. His 4.3 targets per game were also identical to the year before. And Jones was the epitome of a boom-or-bust running back that his fantasy managers are too familiar with that isn't super obvious based on his RB9 finish and RB12 status in points per game. A.J. Dillon got more involved in the second half of the season, especially in the red zone. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring 6 rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line role carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that significantly could hinder Jones' fantasy upside even after a year that saw the 28-year-old finish second in PFF rushing grade. Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season.

Christian Watson was the talk of the town after blowing up the Senior Bowl and combine last year. Worries about Watson began to mount for many in camp and during the early part of the season as he dealt with nagging injuries. Once healthy, Watson proved that the cream does rise to the top. He emerged as the Packers' clear number-one wideout. Watson ranked 14th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), 12th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per route run. He was fourth in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Jaylen Waddle (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Even with Green Bay's quarterback situation unsettled for 2023, Watson can still emerge as a strong WR2 that has huge WR1 upside.

Drafters were expecting A.J. Dillon to carve out a formidable role in the Packers backfield in 2022, but he was a complete afterthough for the majority of the season. His highly-touted "red-zone role" resulted in one touchdown (Week 1) in the first 11 weeks in a struggling Green Bay offense. Dillon eventually got more involved in the second half of the season, especially as a red-zone threat. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried teammate Aaron Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5 while splitting snaps exactly 50/50. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring six rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line usage carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that would significantly hinder Jones' fantasy upside while stabilizing Dillon's fantasy value. The bruising running back finished fifth in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season. He also flashed top-tier handcuff upside when Jones got banged up versus the Bears in Week 13. Dillon tied a season-high with 18 carries for 93 yards and one touchdown to go along with three catches for 26 yards.

Rodgers' status was somewhat up in the air as we entered the offseason. Will he play again? If so, will it be with the Packers? The 39-year-old Rodgers still makes some dazzling throws, but he experienced some statistical slippage in 2022. He threw only 26 TD passes, and his 12 interceptions were the most he'd thrown in a season since 2008. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark of his 15 years as a starter. Rodgers' days as a QB1 may be over. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, but he was QB21 in fantasy points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Don't make the mistake of buying Rodgers based solely on the name brand.