Fantasy Football Player Notes

Mike Evans has a new home with the 49ers, and he looks like a wonderful value in fantasy drafts. Yes, Evans dealt with hamstring issues again last year, but that wasn't the big limiting factor in his games played. That was related to a broken collarbone. For all of the injury talk about Evans, before the 2025 season, he had never played less than 13 games in any season, and since 2020 he had played at least 14 games in every season. Evans might be older, but he hasn't slowed down when you look at his metrics. Last year, during his seven full games played, he had a 24.4% target share, a 30.6% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 109 qualifying receivers last year, those numbers would have ranked 13th-best across the board. Yes, during that sample, he had only 1.86 yards per route run and 52.6 receiving yards per game, which would have ranked 31st and 33rd among the same group of receivers, but that was more related to Baker Mayfield's inaccuracy than Evans slowing down. In his full games played, Evans had only a 70.9% catchable target rate, which among those 109 receivers would have ranked 84th. Evans on field production didn't match his deeper analytics and target-earning ability, as he was also second-best in separation and route win rate last season. If he can stay healthy this season, he should be one of the best values on the board for fantasy season with WR1 upside.

De'Zhaun Stribling has been zooming up draft boards and ADP since the news of Ricky Pearsall's season-ending PCL news. Many could pump the brakes on that now that San Francisco brought back Deebo Samuel on a one-year deal, but I'll still be drafting Stribling at cost. Christian Kirk (calf) is also dealing with an injury to open camp. At this point in Kirk's career, he can't be counted on to stay healthy or be an effective weekly cog of an NFL passing attack. Stribling had a solid collegiate career, with his skill set fitting what the 49ers want from their receivers. During his final two collegiate seasons, he posted 2.15 and 2.44 yards per route run with 7.3 and 6.7 yards after the catch per reception (17 missed tackles forced across both seasons, per PFF). Stribling offers the 49ers a varied skill set with shades of what they have hoped to get from Pearsall. He can make players miss in space, outrun them with the ball in his hands (4.36 40-yard dash), and create yards after the catch. Stribling is a great late-round selection in fantasy football drafts in 2026.

Deebo Samuel rejoins the San Francisco 49ers on a one-year deal after a one-year dalliance with the Commanders. Samuel will compete with De'Zhaun Stribling to be the WR2 in the pecking order behind Mike Evans. Last year, Samuel was the WR29 in fantasy points per game while putting up a varied stat line. Samuel posted some metrics that make me want to feel bullish about his 2026 outlook, but there are also concerning pieces of his analytical profile. Let's start out with the good. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Samuel was 18th in target share (22.4%), ninth in yards after the catch per reception (6.6), 21st in first-read share (27.3%), and ninth-best in missed tackles forced per reception. Unfortunately, though, among the same sample of receivers, he was also 38th in yards per route run and 53rd in first downs per route run (0.076) while seeing his usual bevy of underneath targets (5.3 aDOT, 103rd out of 109 qualifying receivers). I find myself more in than out with Samuel for 2026. His ability to break tackles and create with the ball in his hands has always been his calling card, and he's still posting stellar metrics in those departments and target-earning areas. The per-route efficiency worries I'll chalk up to Washington's struggling offense last season. Samuel should be a viable WR3/flex with upside for 2026 in the 49ers' offense.

Well, it's official. Keenan Allen is a Colt for the 2026 season. Yes, this is signal related to Alec Pierce's health, but it's also a reflection of the Colts' receiving depth chart. All offseason, this team has been painfully thin at wide receiver behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Allen will immediately help in that department. Last year, Allen proved that he still has gas in the tank on multiple levels as the WR36 in fantasy points per game. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 54th in overall separation, 14th in overall route win rate, 22nd in slot yards per route run (2.09), and 18th in route win rate as a perimeter wide receiver (per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, Allen ran 60.5% of his routes as a perimeter wide receiver while drawing a 20.7% target share with 45.7 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, a 24.4% first-read share, and 0.108 first downs per route run. Allen and Josh Downs could rotate between the slot and the perimeter once Alec Pierce is back on the field. Until Pierce is back, I would expect Allen and Downs to be the receivers on the field in two-wide sets. Allen could easily function in the Michael Pittman Jr. role in this offense from 2025 and put Downs back into a slot-only role once Pierce is back. Allen is a viable WR3/4 this season or a flex play with a lean toward PPR formats.