Fantasy Football Player Notes

Nico Collins' third-year breakout was truly remarkable. The former Michigan product had glimpses of potential in his first two seasons, but being paired with C.J. Stroud unlocked his fantasy ceiling in 2023. He was a YAC God. Nearly 1500 receiving yards with 1,370 air yards. 641 yards came after the catch. 24% target share. His 3.11 yards per route run ranked second among all WRs. Only three other players have accomplished this feat since 2017 - Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and Julio Jones. Collins averaged 14.6 points per game in 17 games played in 2023 and 15.7 points per game in 15 games played alongside Stroud. Even if newly acquired veteran Stefon Diggs eats into Collins' target share, his efficiency should remain high with another viable weapon for the defense to be concerned about.

2023 was a terrible year for Stefon Diggs. He was WR10 overall, but he averaged just 13 points per game as the WR15 in half-point scoring. And his lackluster finish is what had fantasy football gamers pulling their hair out. From Week 10 onward, Diggs was the WR45 averaging a meager 7.3 points and 42 receiving yards per game. This was right around the time the Bills swapped Joe Brady as their new offensive coordinator as Ken Dorsey was fired after Week 10's loss to the Denver Broncos. And it's not like Diggs wasn't seeing opportunities. On the year, the Bills' polarizing WR finished just below a 30% target share with over 1,800 air yards. 12th overall in weighted opportunity. Even during the bad finish, Diggs still had a 25% target share and strong route participation at 85%. That makes it tough to draft Diggs confidently coming off career-lows across the board entering his age 31 season. Even with C.J. Stroud as his QB, competition from both Tank Dell and Nico Collins could mark the end of Diggs' alpha WR status in fantasy football.

Tank Dell posted an identical air yards share to Nico Collins (31%) while falling just short in target share (21%). Note that Dell posted over 1,000 air yards in just 10 games played.
In those games, Dell posted a 20.5% target share, 33% air yards share and 14.2 points per game. In the 8 games, Collins and Dell played together - each missed a game with injury - the production was nearly identical. 13.9 points per game for Collins and 14 points per game for Dell.