Fantasy Football Player Notes

Nico Collins has now managed back-to-back-to-back WR1 seasons (WR9, WR8, WR7) in fantasy points per game. It's impressive that Collins has managed to do this despite C.J. Stroud's struggles over the last two years. There's no reason to doubt his ability to do it again this season. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Collins was 15th in target share (23.1%), eighth in receiving yards per game (74.5), fifth in deep targets (24), 16th in first-read share (28.1%), and 19th in first downs per route run (0.105, per Fantasy Points Data). Collins is an easy click in drafts with upside. If Stroud can flash even momentary glimpses of his rookie form in 2026, Collins could enter top five receiver territory this season.

David Montgomery now finds himself as the Texans' do it all workhorse for 2026. Last year, he was phased out of the Lions' offensive plans as the season moved along, which led to his RB32 finish in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 12-18, he was the RB43 in fantasy points per game with a 32.1% snap rate, 8.2 touches per game, and only 42.8 total yards per game. Montgomery still has the juice to produce as a workhorse this season. Last season, he ranked 30th in missed tackle rate, but he was 12th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His receiving chops are also still alive and well, as he was also 22nd in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Many will worry that Montgomery will split Houston's backfield workload with Woody Marks this season, but I don't see that happening. Montgomery should absorb a workload close to what Joe Mixon saw in 2024. In 2024, Mixon ranked fifth in opportunity share, 14th in snap share, and 13th in carries among running backs, finishing with 281 touches. Last season, Montgomery bested Marks in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run. Legit, every per-touch metric that I care about. Montgomery is the superior back, even at this stage of his career, and he'll be a strong volume-driven RB2 that could flirt with RB1 production.

We should always be looking to take swings on talented second-year wide receivers for fantasy football, and Jayden Higgins fits the bill as a possible late-round breakout candidate for 2026. Last year, in Weeks 8-18, Higgins had seven finishes as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring. During that stretch, Higgins, among 119 qualifying receivers, also ranked 24th in target per route run rate (24%) and 38th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). During those 11 games, among the same group of 119 receivers, Higgins was also 28th in yards per route run and 25th in route win rate as a perimeter receiver. If C.J. Stroud can at least be a league-average passer in 2026, Higgins could be a weekly WR2/3 or flex option. He also has contingent upside if Nico Collins misses any time.

With David Montgomery in Houston now, Woody Marks becomes his immediate backup and handcuff. Marks is a solid option among handcuffs. Last year, during his run as Houston's starter (Weeks 10-18), he averaged 17.5 touches and 63.2 total yards per game as the RB32 in fantasy points per game. Last year, overall, he was solid but not spectacular on a per-touch basis, ranking 34th in explosive run rate, 48th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in rushing success rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Marks is a decent late-round handcuff option to draft, but you'll likely be able to get him off the waiver wire in season if Montgomery misses any time.

C.J. Stroud had another struggle bus season last year as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. He had only four weeks in which he cracked the top 12 in weekly scoring among quarterbacks. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 18th in passing yards per game, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in catchable target rate, and 28th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Houston tried to hide him, as he had only five games last year with 35 or more passing attempts. I still have the hope candle lit for Stroud that MAYBE he can recapture some of his rookie season magic, but I won't be drafting him in any league unless it is in a Superflex format.

Houston finished as the DST1 in fantasy points per game last year, and I don't see why they can't do it again in 2026. Last season, they finished fourth in drives ending in a turnover, third in interceptions, and seventh in sacks. Their roster remains stacked, and they added reinforcements with Kayden McDonald, Jadevenon Clowney, and Reed Blankenship. They will be an elite defense again this season.

Last year, Dalton Schultz was the TE14 in fantasy points per game while ranking 13th in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 54 qualifying tight ends, Schultz was 11th in target share and receiving yards per game, 20th in yards per route run, 16th in first-read share, and 20th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Schultz could take a step back in the target pecking order in 2026 with Jayden Higgins emerging, but I think he should still be viewed as a strong TE2 with streaming appeal.

Last year, Ka'imi Fairbairn was the K1 in fantasy points per game. He could easily repeat this feat in 2026. Last year, he was 23rd in extra point attempts, but he was tied for the league lead with 48 field goal attempts. I could see each of those numbers evening out some, but Houston's stellar defense will create plenty of short fields for Fairbairn to have field goal attempts. Last year, he was eighth in field goal % made.

I loved Jaylin Noel as a prospect, and I'm willing to take a last-round flier on him again in 2026. I will acknowledge that if Tank Dell does come roaring back from his injuries this year, it's a death knell for Noel's fantasy value in 2026. In the four games last year that Noel played at least 33% of the snaps, he had a 25% target-per-route run rate, 2.46 yards per route run, and 0.132 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, that is an insanely small sample of 76 routes, but it does show that Noel's talent is real. If he can seize a full-time role in 2026, the sky is the limit, but he has an uphill climb to get there.