Fantasy Football Player Notes

Nico Collins has now managed back-to-back-to-back WR1 seasons (WR9, WR8, WR7) in fantasy points per game. It's impressive that Collins has managed to do this despite C.J. Stroud's struggles over the last two years. There's no reason to doubt his ability to do it again this season. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Collins was 15th in target share (23.1%), eighth in receiving yards per game (74.5), fifth in deep targets (24), 16th in first-read share (28.1%), and 19th in first downs per route run (0.105, per Fantasy Points Data). Collins is an easy click in drafts with upside. If Stroud can flash even momentary glimpses of his rookie form in 2026, Collins could enter top five receiver territory this season.

David Montgomery now finds himself as the Texans' do it all workhorse for 2026. Last year, he was phased out of the Lions' offensive plans as the season moved along, which led to his RB32 finish in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 12-18, he was the RB43 in fantasy points per game with a 32.1% snap rate, 8.2 touches per game, and only 42.8 total yards per game. Montgomery still has the juice to produce as a workhorse this season. Last season, he ranked 30th in missed tackle rate, but he was 12th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His receiving chops are also still alive and well, as he was also 22nd in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Many will worry that Montgomery will split Houston's backfield workload with Woody Marks this season, but I don't see that happening. Montgomery should absorb a workload close to what Joe Mixon saw in 2024. In 2024, Mixon ranked fifth in opportunity share, 14th in snap share, and 13th in carries among running backs, finishing with 281 touches. Last season, Montgomery bested Marks in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run. Legit, every per-touch metric that I care about. Montgomery is the superior back, even at this stage of his career, and he'll be a strong volume-driven RB2 that could flirt with RB1 production.

Marvin Harrison Jr. had a troubled 2025 season as he dealt with a concussion, an appendectomy, and a heel injury that cost him five games. In the eight games he played last year before dealing with appendicitis and a heel injury, he garnered a 21.9% target share, producing 61.6 receiving yards per game with 1.68 yards per route run, a 27.1% first-read share, and 0.082 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, he averaged 13.4 PPR points per game. It's a BIG if, but if he had kept up that type of production, he would have been the WR17 in fantasy points per game. Last year, if you put up that sample for Harrison Jr. against all wide receivers with at least 200 routes, he would have ranked 19th in target share, 16th in receiving yards per game, 44th in yards per route run, 23rd in first-read share, and 46th in first downs per route run. The passing volume for the Cards was propping up some shoddy per-route efficiency, but there are some slivers of hope to take away from this too. If he can overcome the quarterback play and a talented running mate in Michael Wilson, Harrison Jr. can be a volume-based WR3/flex for 2026.

With David Montgomery in Houston now, Woody Marks becomes his immediate backup and handcuff. Marks is a solid option among handcuffs. Last year, during his run as Houston's starter (Weeks 10-18), he averaged 17.5 touches and 63.2 total yards per game as the RB32 in fantasy points per game. Last year, overall, he was solid but not spectacular on a per-touch basis, ranking 34th in explosive run rate, 48th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in rushing success rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Marks is a decent late-round handcuff option to draft, but you'll likely be able to get him off the waiver wire in season if Montgomery misses any time.

C.J. Stroud had another struggle bus season last year as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. He had only four weeks in which he cracked the top 12 in weekly scoring among quarterbacks. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 18th in passing yards per game, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in catchable target rate, and 28th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Houston tried to hide him, as he had only five games last year with 35 or more passing attempts. I still have the hope candle lit for Stroud that MAYBE he can recapture some of his rookie season magic, but I won't be drafting him in any league unless it is in a Superflex format.

Last year, Dalton Schultz was the TE14 in fantasy points per game while ranking 13th in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 54 qualifying tight ends, Schultz was 11th in target share and receiving yards per game, 20th in yards per route run, 16th in first-read share, and 20th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Schultz could flirt with borderline TE1 production again this season with Jayden Higgons lost for the season to a torn ACL. I don't expect newly minted Texan, Kayshon Boutte, to fill a high-volume role in the Houston passing attack.

Houston finished as the DST1 in fantasy points per game last year, and I don't see why they can't do it again in 2026. Last season, they finished fourth in drives ending in a turnover, third in interceptions, and seventh in sacks. Their roster remains stacked, and they added reinforcements with Kayden McDonald, Jadevenon Clowney, and Reed Blankenship. They will be an elite defense again this season.

Kayshon Boutte lands with the Houston Texans and should serve as their field stretcher and the wide receiver who is playing in two-wide sets with Nico Collins. Last year, Boutte was the WR47 in fantasy points per game, with five games in weekly fantasy scoring as a top-24 option. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 48th in separation score and 44th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Among that same sample of receivers, he ranked fourth in aDOT (17.5) while drawing a 10.9% target share with 39.4 receiving yards per game, 1.56 yards per route run, a 14% first-read share, and 0.076 first downs per route run. Boutte will be a matchup-dependent flex this season, likely filling a similar role with Houston, but there's upside for more in 2026 if C.J. Stroud can recapture any of his rookie season magic.

Last year, Ka'imi Fairbairn was the K1 in fantasy points per game. He could easily repeat this feat in 2026. Last year, he was 23rd in extra point attempts, but he was tied for the league lead with 48 field goal attempts. I could see each of those numbers evening out some, but Houston's stellar defense will create plenty of short fields for Fairbairn to have field goal attempts. Last year, he was eighth in field goal % made.

With Jayden Higgins out for the year with a torn ACL, one of the players who could be asked to step up and into a bigger role in 2026 is Jaylin Noel. Noel played 67.2% of his snaps from the slot last year, so the worry is how much he'll be on the field this season, but Houston was fifth in usage of 11 personnel (65.9%), so he could see a near full-time workload. Houston's move to acquire Kayshon Boutte does make it an almost certainty that Noel won't be on the field in two-wide receiver sets. Boutte will likely be that guy opposite Nico Collins in wide receiver formations. Last year, in the four games (yes, it's a small sample), Noel played at least 33% of the snaps (76 routes); he had insane per-route efficiency with a 25% target-per-route run rate, 2.46 yards per route run, and 0.132 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Am I expecting him to put up those types of numbers on a per-route basis over the length of a full season? Hell no, but this is just to illustrate the talent that Noel has when he actually saw the field with regularity last year. Noel is a late-round dart that could hit in a big way in 2026.