Fantasy Football Player Notes

From a top-down view, Etienne's 2023 season looks like a smashing success as he was the RB7 in fantasy points per game, logging 325 touches with 1,484 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. If you rostered him last year, you know that his weekly performances left something to be desired down the stretch, and it was a Jekyll and Hyde type of runout. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 22.3 touches and 106.2 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy points per game. After Week 9, he saw a big dip in his production as he averaged 16.3 touches and 70.5 total yards for the rest of the season as the RB22 in fantasy points per game. Etienne deserves to be in the RB1 conversation for 2024, but we can't ignore these splits and the Jaguars offensive line that finished 32nd in Fantasy Points rush grade and adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Etienne could easily improve upon last year's stats in 2024, but the Jaguars have work upfront to do this offseason.

Christian Kirk played an integral role in the Jaguars' passing game, with 57 receptions on 85 targets (21% target share) for 787 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Kirk found the end zone 3 times during the season. In 12 games, Kirk accumulated 121.8 fantasy points, averaging 11 points per game, positioning him as a reliable flex option in fantasy leagues. WR28 in points per game. When he and Calvin Ridley were both healthy, Kirk posted the higher target share at 21% as the WR23 overall. With Ridley replaced by the "can't earn targets" Gabe Davis and 1st-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr., Kirk projects as the WR1 in the Jaguars offense in target volume.

After being considered a fantasy disappointment for the majority of his first five years in the league, Evan Engram has become one of the most productive pass catchers at the position. Engram finished TE6 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring in 2022, then finished TE2 last year (though it should be noted that three TEs finished less than 3 points behind Engram). With 114 catches in 2023, Engram shattered his previous single-season high by 41 receptions. He also had a career-high 963 receiving yards, though Engram averaged a career-low 8.4 yards per catch. As QB Trevor Lawrence's favorite security blanket, Engram had four games with double-digit reception totals in 2023 and eight games with seven or more receptions. Drops are seemingly always an issue for Engram, and he hasn't scored more than four touchdowns in a single season since he was a rookie in 2017. But Engram has become a high-quality fantasy asset and will be a good bet to once again return TE1 value in 2024.

Fantasy managers were hoping to see Trevor Lawrence take a major step forward in 2023 after a promising 2022 season. Much of Lawrence's third NFL season was a disappointment in that regard, but a strong finish raises hopes for 2024. Over the first 10 weeks of the 2023 season, Lawrence was QB19 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks with at least four starts, averaging 235.6 passing yards and 1.0 TD passes per game. From Week 11 on, Lawrence was QB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 270.9 passing yards and 1.7 TD passes a game. The former No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft was able to ramp up his production late in the year despite losing WR Christian Kirk to a core injury that kept him out of the last five games of the season. Lawrence has a fabulous toolkit that includes abundant arm talent and above-average rushing ability. Consistency is the missing ingredient, and maybe we'll finally get it from Lawrence in his fourth year in the league.

Brian Thomas Jr. burst onto the scene in his junior year at LSU, demonstrating impressive growth with a 33% dominator rating, leading the FBS with 17 touchdowns, and accumulating 1,177 yards over 68 receptions, at an average of 17.3 yards per catch. At 6'4" and 205 lbs with a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, he fits the prototype of a boundary X-receiver. Despite not being the primary focus in LSU's offense, Thomas still managed the 6th-highest college dominator rating in his draft class at 24%, often competing for targets with fellow standout Malik Nabers. Drafted by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, Thomas is positioned to inherit a significant volume of targets left by Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, potentially nearing or surpassing 100 targets. This volume, coupled with his physical attributes and track record, positions him as a promising rookie in fantasy football, though his weekly consistency may vary due to Jacksonville's diverse offensive weapons.

Gabriel Davis did not play in the final two games of the Bills' season. The 2024 free agent will hit the open market in a relatively weak WR free agent class, which will likely create the demand for the extremely boom-or-bust WR. He finished the season as the WR40 in total points, averaging 8.2 points per game as the WR50. Davis posted 5 games with 20-plus fantasy points in 2023 to go along with 7 TDs and 1,200 air yards (30th), but he also went completely catch less in four of his last 8 games played. Even if he goes to a new team where he can improve on his 2023 15% target share (85th), Davis' body of work as a boom-or-bust player will be hard to knock. One could argue that with a step back with Trevor Lawrence has his new QB, his spiked weeks might also not be nearly as big even if he is slightly more consistent on a week-to-week basis. The latter is also hardly a lock, given the depth the Jaguars have across their several established pass-catchers. They also drafted a better version of Davis in the draft, in the form of Brian Thomas Jr.