Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jonathan Taylor's 2025 season and Harvey Dent have earned the same nickname. It really was a two-faced season for the elite RB. After scoring 17 touchdowns in the first 10 games, he only scored three over the last seven games. This corresponds perfectly with when Daniel Jones tore his Achilles last year. With Jones apparently looking great heading into the season, the Colts are hoping they can recapture their early-season magic from 2025. Unfortunately, they open their season against a revitalized Ravens team. Even though the Ravens' defense isn't what it used to be, it's been a good test to open the season.

The Colts have had a lot of questions all offseason. From whether Daniel Jones or Alex Pierce will be healthy to Anthony Richardson beating out Riley Leonard for the backup job, it's been a rollercoaster of the last few months. That said, there have been two constants all offseason: Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren. For months, we have heard that Tyler Warren will be the center of this passing attack. Considering he had over 800 yards, 76 receptions, and four touchdowns as a rookie, he definitely has the ability. This season, they start at home against the Ravens. The Ravens brought in defensive-minded Head Coach Jesse Minter and may have a strong game plan to stop Warren and company. However, Warren's target floor makes him a top option in all formats this week.

Josh Downs dealt with a hamstring issue to open last season, which could be a reason why he didn't eclipse a 60% snap share until Week 4. Downs' playing time was a rollercoaster the rest of the season, as his snap rate dipped below 60% in five other weeks in the remainder of the season. Originally, Downs was expected to step into an elevated role in 2026 and play more on the perimeter after seeing only 65 routes as a boundary receiver last year. I worry that plan could be scrapped after the signing of Keenan Allen. Downs could easily be in his limited snap slot role again in 2026. Maybe not out of the gate with Alec Pierce getting back up to full speed, but it's still up in the air. Last year, overall, Downs was 19th in separation score and 55th in route win rate, but when you look at him as a perimeter receiver, he drops to 52nd in separation and 84th in route win rate. On a per-route basis, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 29th in target per route run rate, 66th in yards per route run, and 26th in first downs per route run. I'm not plugging Downs into a lineup in Week 1 with his playing time up in the air. The matchup also isn't a smash one to worry about missing out on. The Ravens should field an improved pass defense this season, but last year their secondary wasn't hopeless against receivers. They allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity and ranked 15th in yards per target.

Alec Pierce's offseason has been a wild one, with a lengthy ankle surgery recovery keeping him out of the preseason and for most of training camp. Pierce will be active in Week 1, but there's no way that I'd plug him into a fantasy lineup. He has been only a limited practice participant this week. I have no clue what his role or snap share will look like in Week 1. Pierce could be only an opportunistic deep threat in Week 1. With all of the uncertainty around his Week 1 playing time and effectiveness, he's a must-sit. Last season, Baltimore allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity and ranked 15th in yards per target against receivers.

Keenan Allen should be a valuable part of the Colts' offense in Week 1. Alec Pierce's playing time and effectiveness are up in the air. Outside of Allen and Pierce, the Colts have only Josh Downs and Tyler Warren to lean on through the air. Last year, Allen proved that he still has gas in the tank on multiple levels as the WR36 in fantasy points per game. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 54th in overall separation, 14th in overall route win rate, 22nd in slot yards per route run (2.09), and 18th in route win rate as a perimeter wide receiver. Last year, Allen ran 60.5% of his routes as a perimeter wide receiver while drawing a 20.7% target share with 45.7 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, a 24.4% first-read share, and 0.108 first downs per route run. The Ravens should field an improved pass defense this season, but last year their secondary wasn't hopeless against receivers. They allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity and ranked 15th in yards per target. Allen should see enough volume in Week 1 to be a decent flex play.