Fantasy Football Player Notes

Since their bye week, the Colts have lost back-to-back games and lost control of the division. Corresponding to these losses are two of Taylor's worst games of the season. There is likely a strong correlation between Taylor's production and losing games, but unfortunately, the schedule doesn't get any easier. This week, they have a massive game against the division-leading Jaguars, who have been great against running backs lately. Since Week 10, they are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the RB position and the second-fewest rushing yards per game. This game is massive for both teams, and based on this season, the Colts need Taylor to get going if they want to win.

Michael Pittman Jr. is the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 20.9% target share with 51.7 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 24.7% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with ten red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, Pittman should lead the way for the Indy passing attack against the two high heavy Jags pass defense. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has ranked fifth in two high rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pittman has led the team with a 22.5% target share with 2.10 yards per route run and a 28.1% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Despite a very strong rookie season, Warren has slowed down a little for fantasy. This may be a result of Daniel Jones playing with a broken leg, or the fact that they have played three of the top six defenses against the position over their last three games. Either way, the road ahead couldn't get much better. This stretch starts with the Jaguars, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Warren has been the most consistent target on this offense all season. With the Jaguars allowing the fourth most yards and second touchdowns to opposing TEs on the season, Warren should be right back as a top end option for fantasy.

This doesn't line up well as another strong Alec Pierce week. Pierce has been the Colts' field-stretching single-high destroyer all season. Since Week 10, the Jags have allowed the eighth-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate when defending downfield passing. Also, since Week 10, they have utilized two high at the fifth-highest rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pierce has had an 11.3% target share, 1.44 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. Working in Pierce's favor is the fact that the Jags have been horrible against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This could help Pierce pop off with a splash play or two, but I don't believe this is a ceiling game for Pierce.

Josh Downs has had a disappointing season, and I don't see it turning around this week. He is the WR53 in fantasy points per game and hasn't hit double-digit PPR points since Week 9. Downs has a 16.7% target share with 33.6 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and a 19% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with ten red zone targets while kicking in five deep targets. Jourdan Lewis's return last week means Downs is headed toward another quiet game. In slot coverage this season, Lewis has allowed only one touchdown and a 61.7 passer rating in his coverage. Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season.