Values (or perceived values) are rising and falling across the NFL in what was a wild weekend full of high-scoring affairs. Whether you’re buying or selling, here’s a list of players to consider making a move on before it’s too late.
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Players to Buy
Le’Veon Bell (RB – PIT)
The start of the season hasn’t been promising for Bell, though he has increased his fantasy output in three straight games. Think about this for a second – with how mediocre the Steelers offense and Bell have been, had he scored just one more touchdown, he’d be a top-10 running back. That just goes to show where his floor is in fantasy. Coming off three seasons in which he’s averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry and totaled 23 touchdowns in 34 games, Bell deserves some leeway. Some may scoff and say, “pssh, Bell a buy low,” but the definition of buying low is getting them cheaper than they were on draft day, just a few weeks ago. I’m positive that’s the case, so go out there and get the No. 1 running back.
LeSean McCoy (RB – BUF)
After a huge Week 1 performance, McCoy owners may be panicking now that he’s posted two duds in a row. There are positives here, though, as the Bills defense looks legit under new head coach Sean McDermott. This is important because McCoy will remain in games, whereas coming into the season, we had concerns of potential blowouts. It’s hard to find a running back who is going to touch the ball 20 times per game, even if they are 29 yards old. McCoy isn’t going to be the elite RB1 he once was, but he’s still in the top-five that I’d like to own for the rest of the season.
Amari Cooper (WR – OAK)
You may find yourself in a rare buying opportunity for a wide receiver who’ll be top-12 at the end of the season. How he gets there will be a bit frustrating, but outside of the top seven wide receivers, every wide receiver falls into that category. Derek Carr struggled after traveling across the country to Washington D.C. last week and Michael Crabtree stole the show the prior week. Cooper is going to bounce back.
Davante Adams (WR – GB)
Do you think Jordy Nelson is going to continue to score touchdowns once every 5.7 targets? Good, I don’t either. Meanwhile, Adams has totaled six more targets than him and is due for some positive touchdown regression. Anytime you are seeing seven-plus targets per game in the Packers offense, production will follow. With Randall Cobb banged up, more targets could be on their way. Shake off the slow start and snag Adams, who is a solid WR2 going forward.
Marshawn Lynch (RB – OAK)
The Raiders had a bad game in Week 3, plain and simple. Lynch himself still looks the part and runs ferociously. Had he been left in the game against the Jets, his overall stats would look a lot better than they do to this point. He’s a lock-and-load RB2 every single week, so if you can get him for cheaper than that, I’d do so.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
If there is an owner frustrated by the lack of production out of Kelce, you need to reach out to see what you can get him for, because this other owner has no idea what the landscape looks like outside the top four tight ends in the league. With Kareem Hunt blowing the roof off the first three weeks, of course, there’ll be limited production to go around. As good as Hunt is, he will not continue to score 29.3 fantasy points per game. Kelce is the closest thing you can get to Gronk at an inconsistent position, so reach out to see what it would take to acquire him.
Martavis Bryant (WR – PIT)
If you haven’t been able to see Bryant play this year, you really should sit down and do so. He’s casually burning cornerbacks in coverage and did so again this past week against the Bears, but Ben Roethlisberger just overthrew him in a ball that went off his fingertips. Had that pass been caught, it would have been a 70-plus yard touchdown where the cornerback was a few yards behind him. Take advantage of someone who is just reading the stat sheet.
Russell Wilson (QB – SEA)
We talked about it last week – Russell Wilson struggles over the first two weeks of the season every year. There will some who see this as an opportunity to sell high, but we’re talking about a quarterback who’s been a top-eight quarterback three of the last four seasons and he’s never finished outside the top-12. The offensive line has always been a problem, so watch out for teams who bring a hectic pass-rush, but Wilson is a QB1 more often than he’s not.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
You may have missed your window, but Mixon is taking over this backfield in Cincinnati. After playing just 30 percent of the snaps in the first two weeks, Mixon was on the field for 56 percent of the snaps against the Packers. They also happened to come really close to beating them while on the road, so expect new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor to continue moving forward with what worked.
Mark Ingram (RB – NO)
Probably one of the best buys in all of fantasy football, Ingram can be had for next to nothing right now. He finished as the No. 8 running back last year while playing 46 percent of the snaps. Do you know how many he’s played through three games? 49 percent. Some think that it’s too much of a timeshare, but it’s no different than last year. Ingram has had a few tough matchups against the Vikings and Panthers, but he should still be in lineups as an RB2/flex the majority of the time. It’s only a matter of time before the Saints start putting everything together.
DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)
Through two games, Parker has seen 19 targets from Jay Cutler. Over the course of his young career, Parker has produced very well in games where he’s seen five or more targets. Here are his averages in those games: 4.4 receptions for 71.1 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. With their defense struggling, the pass attempts will continue to rise.
Pierre Garcon (WR – SF)
He’s not going to win you a fantasy championship, but he’s not going to lose it for you, either. Garcon will consistently see six or more targets, which is something that’s hard to find from someone who costs this little. Garcon is viewed as a weak WR3 in fantasy circles, but he should be treated as an every-week starter. You may be able to wait until he has a slightly down week, but you risk him gaining more value by waiting. He ranks 12th among wide receivers in targets, and if you know anything about projecting wide receivers, targets are everything.
Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
For the same reason you’re selling Jordan Howard, you’re buying Cohen. Not only does it seem like Howard’s shoulder is a real issue, but Cohen looks fantastic. He’s the No. 13 running back in standard leagues and the No. 10 running back in PPR formats. His numbers should actually be a lot higher than they are, as he had what was a play of the year candidate where he broke a 73-yard touchdown run that was called back for him stepping out of bounds. He shows incredible balance while cutting and isn’t afraid to go in between the tackles. He has standalone value even with Howard playing, but his ceiling goes up if Howard were to miss any time.
Players to Sell
Ty Montgomery (RB – GB)
This one is tough because you really don’t want to sell Montgomery while he’s on the field. The concern is whether or not he’ll remain there. He’s been on the field for 90 percent of the offensive snaps so far, which is by far the most of any running back. Because of that, Montgomery has gotten nicked up a few times, having to pull himself out of the game. He’s escaped major injury to this point, but his numbers are suffering. He’s averaging just 3.0 yards per carry on the season, which could force the Packers to start using Jamaal Williams a bit more. It may be the best thing for Montgomery’s stock and health.
Todd Gurley (RB – LAR)
Coming from someone who told you to buy Gurley before the season started, trust me on this one, it’s time to cash in your chips. Sure, Gurley is still going to be a workhorse for his team and all that, but he’s had the easiest start to his schedule, facing three bottom-six run defenses from last year. Upcoming on his schedule, he’ll head to Dallas to play the Cowboys, and then a run of the Seahawks, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants, Texans, and Vikings. That’s a brutal stretch for any running back. If you can get round-one value out of Gurley, do it.
Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA)
Sure, it was just one bad game. But the issue may be bigger than that. Ajayi not only missed a few days of practice last week but once he did return, beat reporters noticed a slight limp when running. Ajayi fell in the draft because teams were told that if they got one full contract out of him, consider themselves lucky. His knees may not hold up, and we may have started to see the decline against the Jets. Even if it was just a bad game, who’s to say that won’t happen against much better run defenses?
Jordan Howard (RB – CHI)
This is where you use recency-bias to win trades. Before last week, there were fantasy owners trading away Howard for his teammate Tarik Cohen. A lot of fantasy owners left him on their bench for his 164-yard, two touchdown performance last week. His shoulder forced him out of the game twice last week, and for a team that is going nowhere this year, it wouldn’t be a shock if they decided to let him miss some time and get right.
Terrelle Pryor (WR – WAS)
If you can get anything close to WR2 value in a trade for Pryor, do it. He’s looked lost this year, hauling in just 10 of his targets for 116 scoreless yards, despite some solid matchups. Meanwhile, Josh Doctson, who has seen his snap counts rise every week, has totaled 118 yards and a touchdown on his nine targets as a Redskins player. If Doctson becomes an every-down player, he’ll outplay Pryor.
Jimmy Graham (TE – SEA)
Not only is he dealing with an ankle injury, but Graham hasn’t been good while healthy. Coming into Week 3, here is what Graham was averaging over his last 10 games: 3.1 receptions, 38.7 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. After he posted a seven-catch, 72-yard performance, maybe take this opportunity to package something for Travis Kelce.
Sammy Watkins (WR – LAR)
What better time to sell a player than when he’s coming off a 106-yard, two-touchdown performance on prime-time television? Watkins has a brutal stretch in his upcoming schedule where he’ll see Richard Sherman, Jalen Ramsey, Patrick Peterson, Janoris Jenkins, and Xavier Rhodes. Any wide receiver would struggle during that stretch, let alone one who saw just seven targets through the first two weeks.
Jordan Reed (TE – WAS)
It’s a real possibility that Reed gets shut down for the season. Not only was he dealing with a foot injury that was limiting his play, but he’s now dealing with a chest injury. All of this without mentioning his history of concussions. If you can flip him for someone like Martellus Bennett right now, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Chris Thompson (RB – WAS)
If you don’t understand this one, you’re likely going to overpay for Thompson in your fantasy league. Through three weeks, Thompson has four touchdowns on just 27 offensive touches. That means he’s averaging just nine touches per game, which would be difficult for anyone to sustain even RB2 numbers. Thompson has always been a solid third-down running back, and head coach Jay Gruden has already said that they will not overwork him because of the type of running back he is. If you can get someone like Tarik Cohen or Ameer Abdullah for him, I’d suggest doing so.
Players to Hold
Kareem Hunt (RB – KC)
Some may be looking to sell Hunt after three massive performances, but I’d urge against it. Before the season, I said that you were buying Andy Reid as much as you were buying Hunt, and while that’s still true, Hunt has looked phenomenal. Combine the two and you have yourself my No. 3 running back going forward behind only Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott.
Brandin Cooks (WR – NE)
When you drafted Cooks, you knew what you were getting, right? A wide receiver who was going to be a bit up-and-down, but when he went up, he could win you a week. That’s what you got in his Week 3 performance. With how many ways the Patriots can move the ball, Cooks cannot be the focal point of all defenses. His “booms” will likely be bigger than any wide receiver you can trade him for.
Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)
It’s been a weird start to the season for Mariota, who has only thrown three touchdowns but has somehow managed to sneak inside the top-10 quarterbacks thus far. His matchups against the Jaguars and Seahawks were among the toughest he’ll have all season, so the fact that he escaped those games doing so well, don’t give up on him just because he hasn’t thrown for a touchdown every 17 attempts like he did last year. Once Corey Davis gets back on the field, touchdowns will come.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.