Peter Howard takes a look for dynasty league waiver wire stashes for Week 4.
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Welcome, and welcome back to the Dynasty Waiver Wire. We are looking for under-owned or undervalued players in dynasty. But our aim is mainly to search for lesser known, potential stars we want to know about before anyone else. Assuming a standard league of 12 teams and 25 roster spots should keep things relevant to most while still leaving room to talk about less likely candidates.
I’ve been asked if I could try to add a “cut” section or element to the Dynasty Waiver Wire. Since finding space tends to be the hardest part of deeper adds. It’s a good idea, but since dynasty ownership numbers are hard to come by I’m not sure who will lurk on the end of a majority of benches.
When has a player had enough opportunity or development time without producing before you cut or trade them? We all have the same information to use to decide who to “give up on” or not. The difference comes in where we decide to draw the line. As a general rule, I lean toward cutting or trading away players with higher draft capital, earlier. The idea is that they tend to get more opportunity early so they are more likely showing signs of being underequipped at the NFL level. But there is no strict rule (that works) as to when to make that decision or how much leeway you should offer. Various factors like injury, a deep depth chart or just bad luck make it harder to decide. To try and help I’ve listed a few players at the end that I’m generally lower on than most, using DLF’s top 200 dynasty rankings as a guide. I’ll try to keep it reasonable (mostly owned).
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Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
Aaron Jones has epic college production and incredible athleticism. I wrote this offseason on DLF about how I’d rather have Jones than Jamaal Williams as well. Williams was an epic college running back and deserves a role in the NFL. But he just doesn’t profile as a player with the athleticism to translate into fantasy football production. The argument for Williams was always his pass blocking, and that’s something Montgomery is busy showing us is a learned skill. Aaron Jones could learn it too and is more likely to produce if he gets an opportunity.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Last I checked, Melvin Gordon’s injury isn’t serious. But this is an opportunity to mention Austin Ekeler. While Brandon Oliver is the more likely backup, Ekeler is a more interesting prospect in dynasty. Ekeler is an impressive athlete and you may have had his backstory cross your social media feed (it’s a good one) already. He has earned playing time already this season alongside both Oliver and Gordon. On a more pragmatic level, he is 5’9″ tall and weighs 199 lbs, he ran a 4.43 (pro-day) 40-time and jumps off the charts with an 82nd percentile Agility Score and a 94th percentile Burst Score. His 94th percentile college dominator is some pretty fancy window dressing on his well-rounded profile. Put it another way, he’s a faster Aaron Jones and more likely to be available on your waiver wire.
David Moore (WR – SEA Practice Squad)
Another deep dynasty shot in the dark to keep your eyes out for. David Moore is currently on the Seahawks practice squad having been cut before the team dropped to a 53-man roster. The Seahawks injury problems at the position continue this week with Baldwin suffering a groin strain in Week 3. Meanwhile, Moore is 6’1″ and weights 201 lbs. He ran a 4.43 40-time (pro-day) and while Playerprofiler.com adjusts this for a pro-day bias he still graded out in the 88th percentile of Height-Adjusted Speed Score. With above average Burst (66th percentile) and a 39.1% (77th percentile) college dominator rating, Moore has good numbers in all the right places. If he can find his way to some playing time one day, it could be exciting.
Jeff Heuerman (TE – DEN)
When trying to mine the Broncos for tight end prospects most are probably more interested in Virgil Green and A.J. Derby. But for deeper dynasty adds I sometimes look for Jeff Heuerman. Green has had more targets so far (three) and snaps in 2017 then both Derby and Heuerman and the position does not look like a focus of the offense. Still, Heuerman’s name comes up in training camp every year as a player capable of big plays. Even if it’s just as a throw-in, I think he could be an offseason news blurb away from being tradable in 2018, at least. His best comparable player on Playerprofiler.com is Zach Miller, and he is more explosive than Derby with a 65th percentile Burst score.
Cut or Trade List
I’ve listed them in order of “more likely to cut” first onto “more likely to trade” at the end.
- Stacy Coley (WR – MIN)
- Jamaal Williams (RB – GB)
- Dwayne Washington (RB – DET)
- Amara Darboh (WR – SEA)
- Terrance West (RB – BAL)
- Tavon Austin (WR – LAR)
- Phillip Dorsett (WR – NE)
- Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
- Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA)
- Jeremy Hill (RB – CIN)
- Nelson Agholor (WR – PHI)
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