Look, there are always going to be players that we miss out on in fantasy drafts. The best part? You aren’t alone. When looking at ADP (average draft position), there are some players who wind up finishing inside the top-10 at their position despite never being drafted. It’s going to happen, so you might as well accept it.
Retrospect analysis is the worst kind of analysis, because there’s often no substance to what’s being said, unless we’re doing it for a purpose. You know who I’m talking about – the guy who says Todd Gurley was obviously the better draft pick than LeSean McCoy, even though that same guy selected McCoy in the first round of the draft. At the end of the fantasy season, it’s always good to go back and learn from our mistakes, trying to improve the following season. By going through and dissecting our hits/misses, we may find some trends that can lead us to obvious breakout candidates in 2018.
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In this mini-series, we’ll be going through and identifying the players who the fantasy masses missed on, as well as why that player may not have lived up to expectations. But first, we’ll be going through the players that should have been higher on our draft boards, and how we could have predicted they’d finish where they did. This is the type of article you’ll want to come back to prior to draft season, as you’ll likely spot a few trends that’ll force you to raise certain players up your draft board.
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith (KC) Draft ADP: QB22, Finish: QB4
This is a tough one, as Smith was impossible to see coming. He was a 12-year veteran, his coaching staff remained the same, and he actually lost the possession receiver from his offense (Jeremy Maclin) during the offseason. Prior to 2017, Smith had never finished better than the No. 13 quarterback in fantasy. Despite sitting out the final game of the season, Smith finished as the No. 4 quarterback. Don’t feel bad for missing on him.
Carson Wentz (PHI) Draft ADP: QB18, Finish: QB5 (QB2 on per-game basis)
There were definitely some who were higher on Wentz than most, expecting him to take the next step in his career, though nobody imagined he would be tied for the No. 2 quarterback on a per-game basis. The Eagles did add Alshon Jeffery to the receiving corps, which definitely helped, but the real reason Wentz finished as well as he did was his ridiculous touchdown rate. His 7.5 percent touchdown rate was easily the highest in the NFL of those who played at least half the games. By comparison, Russell Wilson was the closest with a rate of 6.1 percent. Remember Matt Ryan‘s historical season in 2016? His touchdown rate was 7.1 percent. Guys, Wentz’s number will come down in 2018, leaving him as a prime regression candidate.
Jared Goff (LAR) Draft ADP: Undrafted, Finish: QB12
Here’s the first tangible piece of advice from this study. Goff was one who had a lot of things going in the right direction last offseason. Not only did the Rams bring in offensive-minded Sean McVay to change the offense, but they also went out and got a stud left tackle in Andrew Whitworth, and a whole new trio of wide receivers in Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp. What can be learned from this? The effect that a coaching change can have on a player, especially one as young as Goff. As we head into 2018, the Bears are trying a similar approach with Mitch Trubisky. What Goff/McVay accomplished in 2017 was a rare feat, but it just goes to show what a coaching change can mean to a quarterback.
Deshaun Watson (HOU) Draft ADP: QB23, Finish: QB25 (QB1 on per-game basis)
I’ve already seen some ranking Watson in their top-three quarterbacks for 2018, and while I understand why they’d want to, you have to understand why he was so successful in 2017. Even more ridiculous than Wentz’s 7.5 percent touchdown rate was Watson’s touchdown rate of 9.3 percent through seven games. That’s more than double that of Case Keenum, who had a very respectable season. To give you some perspective on what a great touchdown rate would be, Aaron Rodgers has a career mark of 6.4 percent, which is the highest mark in the NFL since 1970. Tom Brady‘s career mark is 5.5 percent. What can be learned from here is that you should not undervalue a mobile quarterback, even if he’s a rookie. Even if Watson does cut his touchdown rate in half, his rushing will make him a fantasy asset.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (LAR) Draft ADP: RB10, Finish: RB1
The “can’t-miss” prospect that everyone gave up on after one of the most inefficient seasons in recent memory. What would have happened if Jeff Fisher was still the head coach of the Rams? Would Gurley be on the way to the CFL with Trent Richardson? This one really could’ve been seen coming. As highlighted in his player profile before the season, I said that Gurley was one of the safest picks in the second-round, with a top-three ceiling. With that, even I couldn’t have predicted what the Rams offense became, but it just goes to show what happens when you have a talented running back locked into volume. Knowing that their offense was the top-scoring one, it comes as no shock that Gurley won fantasy titles. Here’s a link (click here) to the article I posted last offseason, describing how much the offense means to a running back.
Alvin Kamara (NO) Draft ADP: RB59, Finish: RB4
This one is a bit tricky, though not too tricky for those who played in best-ball leagues. As mentioned with Gurley above, you want running backs who are attached to high-scoring offenses. The problem with predicting Kamara’s breakout was that he was buried behind two veterans on the depth chart when the season began. We did know that the Saints offense could produce two top-30 running backs, but we didn’t know that Adrian Peterson would struggle, and ultimately get traded. In a study that we did last offseason (read it here), age doesn’t matter when it comes to running backs. The lesson here is to look at the depth chart on the offenses projected to finish as top-10 scoring offenses.
Dion Lewis (NE) Draft ADP: RB65, Finish: RB12
You might as well read the Kamara paragraph above, because Lewis falls into the same territory. Instead of Adrian Peterson, it was Mike Gillislee presumed to be the starting running back. The Patriots have traditionally used a big-bodied back for first and second down and on the goal-line, while mixing in their pass-catching running backs. This year, Lewis took on the big-back role despite his small stature, though he provided value even while losing goal-line carries to Rex Burkhead. The Patriots finished as the No. 2 scoring offense, so this shouldn’t shock you. The lesson here is the same as Kamara – pay attention to the depth chart on presumed high-scoring offenses.
Chris Thompson (WAS) Draft ADP: Undrafted, Finish: RB31 (RB12 on per-game basis)
Some may have forgotten about Thompson after he missed the final six games due to a broken leg, but he still finished the year as the No. 12 running back in standard and the No. 11 running back in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis. How could this have been predicted? The Redskins had two underwhelming running backs ahead of him on the depth chart who offer almost nothing in the passing game. If you see a team who has an underwhelming talent as the starter who offers nothing in the passing game, take a look at that team’s third-down back. While he’s been described as strictly a third-down back, Thompson showed ability in the two prior years, totaling 572 yards on 103 carries (5.55 YPC).
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) Draft ADP: WR14, Finish: WR1
He’s a player I was completely wrong on, as his ceiling with a rookie quarterback felt like it was top-15 at best this year. If you’d told me that he’d finish as the No. 1 wide receiver despite having three different quarterbacks throw to him, I would’ve called you a liar. Hopkins was on an upwards trajectory going into the 2016 season when he struggled and finished as the No. 36 wide receiver, despite finishing the season with 151 targets, which was the seventh-most in the league. The lesson to learn here is that just because a player has a down season, don’t give up on him, even if his quarterback situation isn’t ideal. Volume absolutely matters, and there’s no reason to believe that goes away in 2018.
Marvin Jones (DET) Draft ADP: WR42, Finish: WR5
Seeing him finish as a top-12 wide receiver makes sense, as there were a lot of us (myself included) who viewed him as a breakout candidate in 2016. He was a perfect complement to Golden Tate, but what changed from 2016 to 2017? Nothing, outside of the fact that the Lions felt it necessary to go out and get another big-bodied wide receiver in the draft (Kenny Golladay). Whether that’s what lit a fire under Jones or what, we may never know. This was a breakout that you couldn’t have predicted, as there weren’t any big factors that changed. The only takeaway that I’ll be looking at this offseason is whether or not a wide receiver does significantly better in his second year with a new team. Stay tuned.
Adam Thielen (MIN) Draft ADP: WR46, Finish: WR11
Here’s a situation where the writing was on the wall, but we chose to look the other way. Thielen finished the 2016 season with 53 or more yards in six of the last nine games, including a 202-yard, two-touchdown outburst in Week 16. His increase in productivity came exactly when Pat Shurmer took over play-calling duties, so we mustn’t underestimate the impact that coaching staffs have on players. If you see a receiver get a new play-caller, re-evaluate your feelings on him, as the past coaching staff may not have utilized him properly.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) Draft ADP: Undrafted, Finish: WR18
Here’s one that I’m confident nobody would’ve predicted. Why? Because I was as high as anyone on Smith-Schuster coming out of college, but landing in Pittsburgh seemed like a death wish, especially when Martavis Bryant was reinstated. He seemed a few years away from fantasy relevance, but Smith-Schuster’s ability showed immediately, and he became the No. 2 wide receiver in the offense before long. How can we learn from this? Find a talented wide receiver on a high-scoring offense who may be buried on the depth chart, something that’s often hard to do, because opportunity showcases talent.
Devin Funchess (CAR) Draft ADP: Undrafted, Finish: WR21
This was one you could’ve seen coming, though not as prominent of a fantasy figure as he wound up being. Funchess was essentially just as productive as Kelvin Benjamin with his targets over the last few years, and was walking into the starting lineup after Ted Ginn left via free agency. We always want to chase volume, though never pay too much for uncertainty. You were able to get Funchess with the last pick in drafts a majority of the time. The reason he truly took off was due to the trade of Benjamin, which opened the door to even more targets. Always pay attention to who leaves in free agency, and where those targets will be going.
Robert Woods (LAR) Draft ADP: Undrafted, Finish: WR33 (WR18 on per-game basis)
Prior to the Rams selecting Cooper Kupp in the draft and then trading for Sammy Watkins, Woods was a candidate for 120-plus targets in the Rams offense. Once they got there, though, it seemed like it was way too crowded for Woods to make a fantasy impact. Again, we underestimated the significance of a coaching change and what it can mean for an offense. There are a lot of new coaches in new places this offseason, so don’t automatically write-off a player who struggled under an old regime or an old team. If a team signs a player in free agency, they most likely have plans for that player.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (PHI) Draft ADP: TE9, Finish: TE3
We knew that Ertz was seeing plenty of volume in the Eagles offense, as he’d seen 218 targets over the previous two seasons, which ranked behind only Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, and Delanie Walker during that time. Have we not learned to chase volume at the tight end position? Not only that, but we should’ve seen even more volume coming his way when Jordan Matthews was traded. We knew that because of Ertz’s splits with/without Matthews in the lineup. Follow the volume at tight end, ladies and gentlemen.
Evan Engram (NYG) Draft ADP: TE22, Finish: TE5
A rookie tight end producing top-five numbers? This is one to bet against in the future. There were also some extenuating circumstances that led to him becoming the No. 5 tight end in 2017. Not only was Brandon Marshall ineffective, but he got hurt, as did Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard, meaning Engram was used as the No. 1 option out of necessity. Sure, Eli Manning has traditionally targeted his tight ends quite a bit, but he wouldn’t have seen 115 targets without those injuries. Nothing you could’ve done here, unless you can forecast injuries.
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.