In 2017, Kareem Hunt came out of nowhere to lead the league in rushing yards. The year before, Jordan Howard finished second and the year prior, Doug Martin went from draft-afterthought to number two in rushing. Each and every year this story plays out in several of the key fantasy stats. Today, I’ll tell you which players I can see taking that step forward to finish at the top of the league.
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Passing Yards – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Perhaps this wouldn’t surprise everyone, as some have already enshrined him into the Hall of Fame, but the matter of the fact is that he was merely just a low-end QB1 last year over the five weeks Jimmy G started. Now, I am not suggesting this is a lock or anywhere close to it, so I won’t even have shares of Jimmy G considering his current ADP, but it is worth noting that if you extrapolate his five games out to 16, he would have had 4,934 passing yards in 2017. The leader was Tom Brady, “all the way down” at 4,577. Take into account, also, that Jimmy G was just getting to know the offense since he was traded mid-season. While it likely seems unbelievable to everyone sitting here reading this, there is a distinct possibility Garopollo passes for 5,000 yards in his first full season starting.
Other candidates: Matthew Stafford, Phillip Rivers
Passing Touchdowns – Alex Smith (WAS)
The default line of thinking is that Smith is merely a competent passer and at best, a game-manager. While that was once the truth, it couldn’t be further from reality these days. Smith was spectacular last year and frankly should have seen some MVP votes. He was one of only eight passers who went over 4,000 yards and did it despite throwing just 505 passes. His 104.7 QB rate led the league while his 8.00 yards per attempt trailed only Drew Brees. Now imagine if now that he is in Washington, they open up the offense for him and let Smith throw 575 times like all the other top passers in football. Sure, there may be more than five interceptions for once, but he could also surge forth and throw 35 touchdowns which would have led the league in 2017. Remember, after all, that Tom Brady was “merely a game-manager” until Belichek let him air it out.
Other candidates: Sam Bradford, Jared Goff
Rushing Yards – Rashaad Penny (SEA)
You can point to the fact that the Seahawks’ offensive line wasn’t great last year, but it should be substantially better in 2018 with a full season of Duane Brown and the addition of DJ Fluker, who believe it or not, is quite good at run blocking. Despite the offensive line struggles and having no running back surpass 70 carries last season, the unit as a whole wasn’t bad, and that is because the threat of Wilson’s legs opens up lanes for backs. Remember, too, that the last time Seattle had a true workhorse, Christine Michael averaged 70 yards before being surprisingly cut. Michael is talented but nowhere near as much as Penny, who should have a number of breakaway touchdowns just like 2017’s leader, Kareem Hunt. Plus Penny could see far more opportunities than the 95 Michael saw in his 6 starts.
Other candidates: Joe Mixon, Lamar Miller
Rushing Touchdowns – Marshawn Lynch (OAK)
It is tempting to believe that Beast Mode’s career is virtually over, but he was actually super impressive last season. He led the league in yards after contact and it wasn’t his fault the Raiders’ offensive line was a trainwreck. This season, they should be much better, and while Lynch may see just 180 to 220 carries, you can bank on the ball being stuck in his gut when Oakland is on the goal-line. There is a reason, after all, that he has four consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons in a row. In 2017, Todd Gurley led the league with 13, and it is feasible that Lynch matches that number if he stays on the field.
Other candidates: Royce Freeman, Chris Ivory
Receptions – Jamison Crowder (WAS)
You may expect the Redskins’ passing game to take a step back with Kirk Cousins out and Alex Smith in, but as I mentioned previously, Smith is among the best passers in football and no one seems to realize it. The receiving core hasn’t changed much with Terrelle Pryor and Ryan Grant leaving to be replaced by Paul Richardson and perhaps a healthy Jordan Reed. What has changed, however, greatly benefits Crowder. It is that his new QB almost never throws to a receiver unless they have a yard or two of separation. Among the current receiving options in Washington, only Crowder is above average at creating separation, and he just so happens to be among the best in the league.
Other candidates: Pierre Garcon, Juju Smith-Schuster (only if Brown was to get injured)
Receiving Yards – Keelan Cole (JAX)
Before you just skip this one because it seems to absurd, please hear me out. This one is actually really simple. In the final four weeks of the season, Cole had led the NFL in receiving yards. You might say it is a small sample size, and sure, that is true, but then what do you do with the fact that these are the only receivers with a four-game stretch of 442 or more yards?
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR #1)
- Antonio Brown (WR #2)
- Keenan Allen (WR #3)
- Tyreek Hill (WR #4)
- Julio Jones (WR #6)
- Keelan Cole (rookie!)
With Cole starting the entire season, he has a chance to continue the way he ended last season. Oh, by the way, he is free in your fantasy drafts. He’s got the athleticism, has no top-tier, or even second-tier wideout in his way, and plays for an offense that was second in the AFC in scoring last season.
Other candidates: Marquise Goodwin, DeVante Parker
Receiving Touchdowns – Corey Davis (TEN)
Chances are that if you drafted Davis, you were so discouraged by his utter lack of production that you won’t dare try it again. I get that, for sure, but please consider that he missed training camp and the pre-season where he would have been learning the playbook and getting chemistry with the offensive unit. Then when he came back, Davis wasn’t even fully healthy. We saw flashes in the playoffs of who he can be and it is an absolute monster. The comps to Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall are legitimate. Let’s not forget that between the two of them, they’ve got seven seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Davis figures to be the number one option in the offense this season and could absolutely take off the same way both Dez and Marshall did after rough rookie seasons.
Other candidates: Sammy Watkins, Josh Doctson
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