There are those who will base their drafts around rankings, while others will base it around ADP, and others using projections. But if you were to remove all those things, how would you draft? It might sound odd at first, as you may be wondering what other way is even possible.
League-winners. Drafting a team based around the players you know can win you a fantasy title. These players are often ones who require you to take some risk, because if they didn’t have any risk, they wouldn’t be available to you outside the first-round. Some of those guys last year were Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, and Dion Lewis. What do all of them have in common? All of them were on a top-eight scoring offense.
2018 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid 
Today, we’ll be looking at the potential league-winners in 2018. As much as I’d like to put Saquon Barkley in this article, we’re kicking first-rounders out of the conversation, because you can’t control which one you get, as draft order somewhat determines that.
Mark Ingram (RB – NO)
It seems like we go through this every year with Ingram, as his ADP somehow falls to the point where he’s a no-brainer. After finishing as the No. 6 running back last year, Ingram was suspended for the first four games of the season, which has dropped him down to the RB22 in current ADP, next to guys like Jay Ajayi and Royce Freeman. There are some serious question marks surrounding those players, yet a proven commodity like Ingram is going behind them? Even in 12 games, Ingram will likely provide RB1 value in five or six of them (based on his history in Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between), something that Ajayi has done just four times in his entire career. Allowing a team to snag Ingram as their RB3 will give them a major advantage the remainder of the season, especially when you can snag someone like Jonathan Williams or Adrian Peterson to fill in for the first four weeks of the season for minimal cost.
Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET)
Again, when searching for a potential league-winner, you have to take some risks. Johnson isn’t even guaranteed the starting job to open the season, but he’s a three-down back who plays on a Lions offense who finished as the No. 8 scoring offense in the NFL last year. They’ve also beefed up their offensive line over the last two years, which should allow him to run with more efficiency than the Lions running backs have over the last few years. LeGarrette Blount doesn’t fit the offense, Ameer Abdullah hasn’t even come close to living up to starting expectations, and Theo Riddick is strictly a gadget player. If they were truly happy with Blount, Abdullah, and Riddick, they wouldn’t have drafted Johnson atop the second-round.
Jamaal Williams (RB – GB)
Another high-flying offense, though you wouldn’t think so with Brett Hundley under center last year. That’s when Williams got most of his opportunity, so to see him finish as the No. 9 running back from Week 10 through Week 17 is pretty impressive. He finished as the RB29 on the season despite seeing just 153 carries, so why is he going outside the top-35 running backs with Aaron Rodgers at the helm? If you’re truly worried about Aaron Jones, draft him too! Seriously, to lock up the Packers backfield for a seventh- and eighth-round picks is likely worth it. What we do know is that Williams is going to be starting Week 1 for the Packers, something that’s got league-winning potential.
Sony Michel (RB – NE)
Wait, a three-down running back who plays for the Patriots, who have been a top-six scoring offense since way back in 2009? Many have told me that I’m too high on Michel and that’s fine because it’s lowered his ADP to the point where you don’t even have to pay top-dollar to acquire him. As of the time I’m writing this, he’s being drafted as the No. 30 running back in the sixth- or seventh-round, next to guys like Isaiah Crowell. If someone in your league drafts Crowell over Michel, they are gifting you the trophy because they’re playing for fourth-place.
Amari Cooper (WR – OAK)
Remember when I said drafting potential league-winners doesn’t come without risk? Well, you can understand when you see Cooper’s name here. After being a colossal bust last year (he finished as the WR31, but it was bad), Cooper could get his career back on track with Jon Gruden coming to town. Not only did Michael Crabtree get cut, but newly-acquired Martavis Bryant is working exclusively with the second-team offense. That leaves Cooper and 33-year-old Jordy Nelson as the only legitimate threats in the passing-game. Fun fact: Jon Gruden has had at least one 1,000-yard receiver on every single one of his teams. Knowing that, combined with the fact that Gruden said they’ll use Cooper like the Packers used Sterling Sharpe (who had five seasons of 1,100-yards and four seasons of 90-plus catches), he’s got massive upside.
Josh Gordon (WR – CLE)
I’m convinced that not enough people remember just how dominant Josh Gordon was when on the field. Even if you remember the 1,646-yard, 9-touchdown season, do you remember who his quarterbacks were? A combination of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, and Brian Hoyer that year. No, I’m not kidding. Going to Tyrod Taylor and/or Baker Mayfield is a massive upgrade, though Gordon obviously doesn’t come without risk. He pulled himself out of training camp, then came back with a strained hamstring. The Browns have Jarvis Landry there now as well, but Gordon is the true alpha-dog when on the field. He’s not for the feint of heart, but if he plays all 16 games, he’s a league-winner.
Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Do you know why Adam Thielen is a household name? Pat Shurmur’s offense gave Thielen a shot to showcase his abilities and he took full advantage. Don’t believe me? In Thielen’s 39 games before Shurmur arrived, Thielen totaled 67 targets, 45 receptions, 645 yards, and two touchdowns. Once Shurmur took over in Week 9 of 2016, here’s Thielen’s next 27 games: 200 targets, 135 receptions, 1,879 yards, and eight touchdowns. Shepard is going to play the Thielen role in Shurmur’s offense, while Odell Beckham will play the Stefon Diggs role. I’m not saying that Shepard will finish as the No. 10 fantasy wide receiver (like Thielen did last year) without a Beckham injury, but him being drafted as the No. 43 wide receiver is comical.
Rob Gronkowski (TE – NE)
There are a lot of people who are passing on Gronkowski due to his injuries over the years, and it’s understandable as he’s failed to play all 16 games in each of the last six seasons. Still, Gronkowski offers you upside that rivals the top-tier wide receivers at a tight end position that’s typically unpredictable. Seriously, his 1,327-yard, 17-touchdown season in 2011 would have crushed Deandre Hopkins’ 2017 output by nearly 30 fantasy points. With all the missing options in the Patriots passing-game, Gronkowski is going to be relied upon extremely heavily and there’s not a linebacker in the game who can cover him. If he stays on the field, Gronkowski is a league-winner.
Trey Burton (TE – CHI)
It’s extremely rare to find a tight end outside the top five rounds who can offer you top-three upside, but that’s what Burton offers. You might scoff at first, but keep in mind what the Andy Reid coaching tree does for the tight end position. Travis Kelce is being drafted as the No. 2 tight end despite having Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins on the team, and then you had Zach Ertz go from borderline TE1 production, to the No. 3 fantasy tight end under Doug Pederson. Matt Nagy acquired Burton to play the “move” tight end role, which is the one Kelce and Ertz play. He’s obviously got experience in the offense while coming from Pederson’s team, so he should be able to help more than most do with a new team.
Jordan Reed (TE – WAS)
This one seems too obvious, but judging by his current ADP, most are doubting Reed. Going to my Boom, Bust, and Everything In-Between series, here’s a list of the top tight ends in the NFL from 2011 through 2017, with their percentages in that time:
| Player | G | Top-5 TE % | Top-12 TE % | BOOM (20+) | BUST (UNDER 7) |
| Rob Gronkowski | 86 | 48.8% | 76.7% | 38.4% | 14.0% |
| Jimmy Graham | 105 | 38.1% | 66.7% | 28.6% | 19.0% |
| Jordan Reed | 52 | 26.9% | 51.9% | 19.2% | 26.9% |
| Travis Kelce | 63 | 25.4% | 57.1% | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Zach Ertz | 74 | 24.3% | 44.6% | 12.2% | 40.5% |
| Greg Olsen | 103 | 22.3% | 53.4% | 13.6% | 31.1% |
As you can see, Reed belongs in the conversation of the elite tight ends, as his top-five percentage ranks third to only Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Sure, there’s some risk given he’s never played more than 12 games, but when on the field, he’s straight gold. It also doesn’t hurt that Alex Smith has produced a top-eight tight end in each of the last seven full seasons he’s played.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
